The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[ScottT]

Greene's walk totals were definitely a mirage... or a false stat

He played mlb till he was 35. Anti mathis with an almost Mathis sequel career

[ScottT]

Mathis esque 

[UndertheHalo]

I think that the next 12 months results with a bunch of prospects should really be indicative of what the Angels are doing in terms of player development.  In other words.  Is it working. 

Once Adell is graduated unless we see some serious progress from a bunch of guys it’s going to look pretty bleak.  I don’t mean to be a downer but I’m seriously concerned about what’s going on and the progress that’s been made.  If they go right back to being among the worst systems....man.  That’s not good. 

Edited August 13, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Angelsjunky]

Holy crap, I didn't realize how much Adell's numbers have dropped...his season numbers (A+/AA/AAA) are now at .286/.366/.493. He looks totally overmatched in AAA, hitting .209/.292/.233 in 10 games. I'm sure he'll adjust but it is a bit of a downer relative to his earlier performance. He definitely doesn't seem ready for the big leagues, and maybe not until a couple months into next season.

[Angelsjunky]

13 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think that the next 12 months results with a bunch of prospects should really be indicative of what the Angels are doing in terms of player development.  In other words.  Is it working. 

Once Adell is graduated unless we see some serious progress from a bunch of guys it’s going to look pretty bleak.  I don’t mean to be a downer but I’m seriously concerned about what’s going on and the progress that’s been made.  If they go right back to being among the worst systems....man.  That’s not good. 

I'm a bit concerned, as I've said before - certainly more concerned than some of the other thread regulars. Most of the better position player prospects have either stagnated or taken a step back this year. I think we need to accept the likelihood that we had overly inflated expectations last year. Last year it looked like a farm on the cusp of the top ten in all of baseball, now it looks closer to #20 than #10. 

[UndertheHalo]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm a bit concerned, as I've said before - certainly more concerned than some of the other thread regulars. Most of the better position player prospects have either stagnated or taken a step back this year. I think we need to accept the likelihood that we had overly inflated expectations last year. Last year it looked like a farm on the cusp of the top ten in all of baseball, now it looks closer to #20 than #10. 

Agreed.  Like I said I’m not trying to be overly negative but man, once Adell is out of the system this isn’t even a top 25 group unless some guys really turn a corner.  It’s a concern. 

The thing i really wonder about is just how well are the Angels doing in terms of development, data ... that kind of stuff.  I think we had hoped that they had really come a long ways.  But maybe we were a bit over optimistic. 

Edited August 13, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Agreed.  Like I said I’m not trying to be overly negative but man, once Adell is out of the system this isn’t even a top 25 group unless some guys really turn a corner.  It’s a concern. 

The thing i really wonder about is just how well are the Angels doing in terms of development, data ... that kind of stuff.  I think we had hoped that they had really come a long ways.  But maybe we were a bit over optimistic. 

I think you're right on about knowing more around a year from now. The farm is in a bit of a precarious position: a year from now it could fall to the bottom third of farms, or it could be back to fringe top 10. A lot of prospects are quite volatile and could go either way: vying for a spot in the top 100 or remaining in relative obscurity. 

In other words, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the following end 2020 in the top 100 prospects in baseball: Jahmai Jones, Brandon Marsh, Trent Deveaux, D'Shawn Knowles, Jeremiah Jackson, Jordyn Adams, Kevin Maitan, Chris Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Will Wilson, Kyren Paris, Arol Vera, Jack Kochanowicz, Alexander Ramirez, maybe one or two others. But I also wouldn't be surprised if none of them are in the top 100.

[ScottT]

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Holy crap, I didn't realize how much Adell's numbers have dropped...his season numbers (A+/AA/AAA) are now at .286/.366/.493. He looks totally overmatched in AAA, hitting .209/.292/.233 in 10 games. I'm sure he'll adjust but it is a bit of a downer relative to his earlier performance. He definitely doesn't seem ready for the big leagues, and maybe not until a couple months into next season.

Yeah. I thought he'd put up good numbers in that league.  Who doesn't?  The strikeout numbers are alarming.  It's a crazy small sample size, but maybe he isn't ready to take over next year.  Maybe Calhoun comes back for less.

[ScottT]

Adell hasn't struck out tonight.  If he keeps it up, that'll be two nights in a row without a whiff. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, ScottT said:

Yeah. I thought he'd put up good numbers in that league.  Who doesn't?  The strikeout numbers are alarming.  It's a crazy small sample size, but maybe he isn't ready to take over next year.  Maybe Calhoun comes back for less.

I think he'll adjust and be ready, but we shouldn't expect instant stardom. I could see a first season in which he hits something like .250/.300/.450 with 25 HR, with lowish walks and tons of strikeouts. As he adjusts to major league pitching and masters the strike zone, he'll end up hitting .290+/.900+, 35+ HR eventually, but it will take time for him to get there - maybe ~5 years.

I think Adell is somewhat comparable to Eloy Jimenez in terms of level. Jimenez is hitting .237/.294/.453 with 19 HR in his first 81 games. I could see Adell doing something like that next year. Or some have compared him to George Springer, who hit .231/.336/.468  with 20 HR in 78 games during his first year, in 2014. Springer was pretty good for a few years, a borderline star, but seems to be breaking through to a new level this year, his sixth season in the majors.

Our problem is that it is hard not to compare everyone to Trout, but not only is Trout better than everyone else but his trajectory was quite unusual. Aside from his 40-game cup o' coffee in 2011, he was a superstar on arrival. The Trout of 2017-19 is a better hitter than he was in 2012-16, but it isn't that far apart. I suspect we'll see more of a developmental curve from Adell. I do think he'll be a star (although probably not a superstar), but that it will take him longer to get there. 

[ScottT]

I don't expect stardom.  Because of the BB and K rates.  You can develop that, but not everyone does.   I'm hopeful, but who knows.   Even if you don't develop that.....  you can sneak in a couple all star seasons.  You can be Justin Upton.... which would be ok.   A slight disappointment, but good times.  Good value before FA.   

People that expect him be Trout are fools.  I'd be ecstatic if he turned into Springer.  I think he can.  

[ScottT]

I don't think anyone with a developed brain thinks he is going to be the next Mike Trout.

[Docwaukee]

what happened last year that gave everyone such a good feeling?  

Fletcher, Regifo, Adell, Walsh, Ward, Rojas were standouts.  All of who have stayed the same in the minors or progressed to the bigs.  Adell was injured to start the year and was a beast prior to AAA.  At 20.  and he wasn't exactly great in AA last year.  So he's clearly gotten better and we're talking about 49 PA in AAA so far.  

Canning and Suarez progressed to the bigs as well and are taking their lumps.  Both of whom were better at AAA prior to their promo.  

Thaiss is a major league player.  

Jose Rojas is killing AAA after looking over matched last year

Knowles is probably one of the few who hasn't gotten better along with Jam Jones but more on him later. 

Jeremiah Jackson went through a full swing change and now leads the pioneer league in hrs 

Orlando Martinez advanced a level and has improved with more power

Brandon Marsh advanced two levels from the start of last year and has gotten better.  

Jordyn Adams had a .683 ops at two rookie levels last year and still got a promo to A ball where he's been about the same.  At 19.

Jam Jones ended up with .717 ops last year over A+/AA but has had his best stretch in AA over the last 20+ games  with a .851 ops.  So while he's not gotten better overall, his aggressive promo is showing some hope.  He's probably the most visible in terms of a litmus for the entire farm, but you can't think that way.  

So two position players have disappointed.  A bunch of other guys who we didn't expect much from have come out of nowhere on to the radar.  

On the pitching side, there has been clear progression.  So many guys have gotten better including Yan, Soriano, Ortega and several others.  Many of whom have been aggressively promoted.  

So maybe it's that they weren't as good as we thought last year, but overall, I see progression and graduations.  

It's not fun that Knowles and Adams and Maitan and Marsh haven't turned into Adell but who's going to and if that was the expectation, then people need to reset those.   There's plenty of high ceiling talent that could take off at any time but I wouldn't expect it next year either.  Maybe you get one guy and if that makes everyone feel better then great, but something like that only adds marginal value to the farm overall.  

I would actually argue that the pitching progression from this year at multiple levels has actually been of greater value than the few individual performances from last year.  

[UndertheHalo]

 I think part of the issue is that almost all of these guys are in the low minors.  I recognize that and I do get what you’re saying Doc. 

Part of the concern is that guys in the low minors are less valuable trade bullets.  We all want the Angels to compete yesterday.  Maybe that’s unrealistic but it is what it is.  Obviously more valuable tradable assets moves the major league club along. 

Edited August 13, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, ScottT said:

I don't expect stardom.  Because of the BB and K rates.  You can develop that, but not everyone does.   I'm hopeful, but who knows.   Even if you don't develop that.....  you can sneak in a couple all star seasons.  You can be Justin Upton.... which would be ok.   A slight disappointment, but good times.  Good value before FA.   

People that expect him be Trout are fools.  I'd be ecstatic if he turned into Springer.  I think he can.  

Upton has averaged 3.6 fWAR per 162 games, Springer has averaged 5.1. I'm hopeful that Adell will eventually be that good, but will start more in the 3-4 range. But yeah, his stardom hinges on to what degree he masters the strike zone which will show up in his BB and K rates. 

[Docwaukee]

Also, I am not arguing that we have a top 10 farm system.  Just one better than the worst EVER three years ago.  I think middle of the pack is reasonable and we'll need progression and/or breakout from a few guys to move up the chain, but there is that potential.  Something we haven't had in years.  

Adams, Maitan, Knowles, Deveaux, a bunch of DSL guys, Soriano, Acquino, Yan, Franco, Marsh, Rondon, Paris, Kochanowicz, Wilson, Jackson, Duensing, Hunter, Ortega, Holmes and a slew of others.  Most won't amount to much but all of them have huge upside.  We haven't even seen most of the pitchers from this year's draft.  

[ScottT]

Just curious....  

Mike Trout in the minors:

1326 PA....155 BB (11.6 %)... 213 K (16%)

Mike Trout in the majors

5173 PA... 783 BB (15.1%)...  1095 K (21.2%)

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

 I think part of the issue is that almost all of these guys are in the low minors.  I recognize that and I do get what you’re saying Doc. 

Part of the concern is that guys in the low minors are less valuable trade bullets.  We all want the Angels to compete yesterday.  Maybe that’s unrealistic but it is what it is.  Obviously more valuable tradable assets moves the major league club along. 

It is unrealistic and you are right.  The low minors guys don't have the prospect clout as of yet.  But the major league offense is good, the bullpen is good, and there are options for the mid/back of the rotation.  Some solid additions make the team better than they've been in awhile whether people want to believe that or not.   But it might take a full year or maybe even two before we see assets achieve value where trading them makes sense.  The farm got so much better so fast that it's left people with unrealistic expectations.  That was mostly because they were so unbelievably bad to start.  I encourage people to look at a 2-3 window or more when evaluating a farm system.  

[Angelsjunky]

Doc,I could list every player you mentioned--and add in others--and say something negative or concerning. To some degree--given our limited knowledge--it is how we choose to look at it, which narrative we gravitate towards (like politics). I tend to be optimistic but over the years (decades) of following the Angels, have found that reality usually settles in somewhat below what I expected/ hoped, so I try to compensate with dose of glass-half-emptyism.

For gits and shiggles...

Adell is very good, but probably not a superstar. His BB/K rates could really be exposed in the majors leading to a Buxton-esque rate of development. Buxton is a good player but it took him years to get there and he's not quite the superstar people hoped.

Fletcher/Rengifo are good, solid players, but just that.

Walsh, Ward, and Rojas are nothing more than altitude inflated quad-A types at this point. That might change, but we've seen nothing (yet) to show us otherwise.  

Canning and Suarez progressed well, but are showing signs of limited upside. It might be that the non-Angels pundits were right in projecting both to be #3-4 types at best. Ditto Sandoval.

Thaiss is a major league player. 

Knowles, Adams, and Deveaux display tools but could just as easily flame out in the high minors as become good major leaguers.

Jackson shows power but little else: no walks, tons of strikeouts, poor contact. There's talent but he could easily bust.

Orlando Martinez is Brennon Lund. Anything to be excited about?

Brandon Marsh continues to flash potential but at some point he has to start producing numbers. Right now his batting line points to another Lund-type. Unlike Lund his athleticism will make him a good 4th outfielder at least, but if he wants to be a good regular--let alone a star--he has to hit for some power.    

As for the pitchers, the high upside guys are all in A-ball or lower. Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy is very concerning. Soriano, Yan, and Aquino show promise, but are also the types of pitchers that end up being relievers in the majors. Ortega could be a sleeper prospect, or he could be another Castillo/Beasely/Torpeano back-end rotation fodder type.  

I could go on. The point being, you can tilt the angle of perception one way and things look quite promising; tilt it just slightly different and there's room for concern.

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Just curious....  

Mike Trout in the minors:

1326 PA....155 BB (11.6 %)... 213 K (16%)

Mike Trout in the majors

5173 PA... 783 BB (15.1%)...  1095 K (21.2%)

I see what you mean but all things like that go out the window with Trout.  He's a freak beyond comprehension.  

[ScottT]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I see what you mean but all things like that go out the window with Trout.  He's a freak beyond comprehension.  

Of course. Nobody is Mike Trout.  Nobody can be expected to turn into Mike Trout.

I was really just curious.   I knew his rates were better than Adell's.   His walk rate wasn't that great.... but....  he also didn't hit many home runs in the minors.  To draw more walks without doing serious damage... says something.  

 

[Docwaukee]

Doc,I could list every player you mentioned--and add in others--and say something negative or concerning. To some degree--given our limited knowledge--it is how we choose to look at it, which narrative we gravitate towards (like politics). I tend to be optimistic but over the years (decades) of following the Angels, have found that reality usually settles in somewhat below what I expected/ hoped, so I try to compensate with dose of glass-half-emptyism.

For gits and shiggles...

Adell is very good, but probably not a superstar. His BB/K rates could really be exposed in the majors leading to a Buxton-esque rate of development. Buxton is a good player but it took him years to get there and he's not quite the superstar people hoped.

based on what 50 ab at AAA?

Fletcher/Rengifo are good, solid players, but just that.

based on what?  a short stint in the bigs?  

Walsh, Ward, and Rojas are nothing more than altitude inflated quad-A types at this point. That might change, but we've seen nothing (yet) to show us otherwise. 

agree, but if you expected more than that your were misinformed to start. 

Canning and Suarez progressed well, but are showing signs of limited upside. It might be that the non-Angels pundits were right in projecting both to be #3-4 types at best. Ditto Sandoval.

base on what?  Their first stint in the bigs?  22yo pitchers never get better.  

Thaiss is a major league player. 

Knowles, Adams, and Deveaux display tools but could just as easily flame out in the high minors as become good major leaguers.

they could but to judge them based on this year is premature

Jackson shows power but little else: no walks, tons of strikeouts, poor contact. There's talent but he could easily bust.

he could but to judge him based on this year is premature

Orlando Martinez is Brennon Lund. Anything to be excited about?

he's a way better prospect than Lund with way more upside although likely ends up not making it.  Lesser talents have been better.  Again, too early to make a judgement.  

Brandon Marsh continues to flash potential but at some point he has to start producing numbers. Right now his batting line points to another Lund-type. Unlike Lund his athleticism will make him a good 4th outfielder at least, but if he wants to be a good regular--let alone a star--he has to hit for some power.  

you know it's absurd to compare him to Lund.  They're not even in the same stratosphere.  Again, too early to judge.  

As for the pitchers, the high upside guys are all in A-ball or lower. Chris Rodriguez's inability to stay healthy is very concerning. Soriano, Yan, and Aquino show promise, but are also the types of pitchers that end up being relievers in the majors. Ortega could be a sleeper prospect, or he could be another Castillo/Beasely/Torpeano back-end rotation fodder type.

agreed, but again, too early.  

I could go on. The point being, you can tilt the angle of perception one way and things look quite promising; tilt it just slightly different and there's room for concern.

I didn't tilt anything other than trying to keep people from judging based on some numbers they've looked up on BR or fangraphs.  Am I thrilled the system didn't blow up and become top 5 this year?  No.  Did I think they were top 5 or even 10 last year?  No.  Either it works out or it doesn't.  If what you've seen this year had made you concerned then you weren't paying attention last year or the year before.  There's one Adell in each draft every year.  I think a lot of people have seen what he's done and expect that from several guys in the minors.  It's just not gonna happen.  

[ScottT]

There's also that (for lack of a better term)... X factor.   Mike Trout has it.  Michael Jordan had it.  Kobe Bryant.  Etc.  Jo Adell seems to be from that mold.  Doesn't always turn into greatness, but most of the greats have it.  

[Docwaukee]

Just now, ScottT said:

There's also that (for lack of a better term)... X factor.   Mike Trout has it.  Michael Jordan had it.  Kobe Bryant.  Etc.  Jo Adell seems to be from that mold.  Doesn't always turn into greatness, but most of the greats have it.  

that's what I'm talking about.  he's got something different.  

[34red4]

51 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm a bit concerned, as I've said before - certainly more concerned than some of the other thread regulars. Most of the better position player prospects have either stagnated or taken a step back this year. I think we need to accept the likelihood that we had overly inflated expectations last year. Last year it looked like a farm on the cusp of the top ten in all of baseball, now it looks closer to #20 than #10. 

Without Adell, our farm is very underwhelming in the sense of having prospects that will be, instead of might be. And I know technically all prospects are might bes, but y’all should know what I mean.

Here’s a break down of 50 grade or above prospects per team according to MLB.com:

ARI (16) - 55 (4), 50 (12)

ATL (10) - 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

BAL (11) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (7)

BOS (11) - 55 (1), 50 (10)

CHC (10) - 55 (2), 50 (8)

CWS (9) - 65 (1), 55 (4), 50 (4)

CIN (10) - 55 (3), 50 (7)

CLE (13) - 55 (4), 50 (9)

COL (6) - 60 (1), 55 (1), 50 (4)

DET (14) - 65 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

HOU (3) - 60 (2), 50 (1)

KC (8) - 60 (1), 55 (2), 50 (5)

LAA (5) - 65 (1), 50 (4)

LAD (14) - 60 (1), 55 (3), 50 (10)

MIA (12) - 55 (6), 50 (6)

MIL (9) - 55 (1), 50 (8)

MIN (13) - 60 (2), 55 (3), 50 (8)

NYM (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

NYY (12) - 55 (3), 50 (9)

OAK (8) - 55 (3), 50 (5)

PHI (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

PIT (7) - 55 (3), 50 (4)

SD (10) - 65 (1), 55 (7), 50 (2)

SF (10) - 55 (4), 50 (6)

SEA (8) - 55 (5), 50 (3)

STL (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)

TB (11) - 70 (1), 60 (1), 55 (4), 50 (5)

TEX (16) - 55 (3), 50 (13)

TOR (13) - 60 (2), 55 (1), 50 (10)

WAS (8) - 55 (2), 50 (6)