The official (slightly early) off season discussion thread. Let's hear your plan.

[Torridd]

On 9/29/2018 at 3:25 PM, Dochalo said:

What would you do?  Who do you not want?  Do you think we can compete next year? Submit your 2019 roster.  What are your bold moves?  

I think we need Machado or Harper. I'd prefer Machado to let Calhoun, a surer thing than Ward or Cozart, to play his defense and get the occasional hit. We can then replace him with Adell in a year or so.   If we get either one, we can certainly compete next year if we can sure up our bullpen and add another starter by trade or free agency. I think the Angels can afford this.

[Torridd]

On 9/30/2018 at 2:12 AM, Scotty@AW said:

What would I do?  I'd probably operate with around 35 million AAV to play with before we meet our max payroll....

1. Sign Josh Donaldson 4/60 million.  He has a chance to outhit both Harper and Machado but at a fraction of the price.

2. Sign Daniel Murphy 3/30 million.  He's a great left handed hitter and we could use the balance.

3. Sign Dallas Keuchel 5/75 million.  Extreme ground ball pitcher that would steady a staff that hasn't found any sort of consistency. 

4. Cut loose Noe Ramirez, Jefry Marte, Deck McGuire etc....

5. Trade Jose Alvarez - He's been nails this year, but quite frankly, I think they should sell high.  I think he's overrated.  Get an interesting prospect for him if you can. 

6. Buy out Pujols' remaining years, even if it only saves the Angels a couple million at the most, even if it only means saving a roster spot.  Whatever, in this scenario, he's not the starting 1B.

7. Trade Zack Cozart and Kole Calhoun, even if it only means saving 5-10 million.  Cozart is a fine defensive infielder, just as Calhoun is a fine defensive outfielder, but neither hit enough to be starters at this point. 

8. Sign Jon Jay 1/5 million.

9. Sign a Jose Iglesias type as a minor league free agent with the mind that you'll make him the UTIL. 

10. Re-up Eric Young Jr to be the 4th OF. 

11. Trade Cam Bedrosian.  Get whatever you can. 

 - Roughly speaking, this figures to result in a team that's approximately 10 million more expensive than the 2018 Angels.  

The team would be....

1. SS Andrelton Simmons 2. CF Mike Trout 3. DH Shohei Ohtani 4. 3B Josh Donaldson 5. 1B Daniel Murphy 6. LF Justin Upton 7. RF Jon Jay 8. C Arcia 9. 2B David Fletcher

BENCH: 2B/SS Iglesias, 1B/2B/3B Jose Miguel Fernandez, C Briceno, OF Young. 

Rotation: 1. Dallas Keuchel 2. Tyler Skaggs 3. Andrew Heaney 4. Jaime Barria 5. Matt Shoemaker

Bullpen: 1. Blake Parker 2. Justin Anderson 3. Ty Buttery 4. Hansel Robles 5. Felix Pena 6. JC Ramirez 7. Alex Meyer (Plus Middleton when he's ready)

EXPLANATION - Having Donaldson and Murphy takes a lot of pressure off of Upton to back up Trout.  Trout's been pitched around this year because he's great, but also because there just wasn't a credible threat behind him for the vast majority of the year until Shohei was moved up and was hitting everyday.  Move Upton into a spot in the order where it'll be great if he produces, but if he doesn't, he has a few guys that can also step up.  

The Rotation still leaves a lot to be desired but I think it'll be ok for a number of reasons. a-I really think Shoemaker is back for good now.  They figured out the issue and he'll be a steady, yet unspectacular presence at the back end.  b-Keuchel is an extreme ground ball pitcher and if you put him in front of Simmons and Fletcher, it'll result is some great numbers.  c-Barria and Heaney are very steady.  It won't be like years past. The whole rotation should be much more stable.  Not amazing, but the Angels don't need amazing, they just need steady.  d-Canning is going to force his way into the rotation before the all-star break and Angels fans really don't realize just how good this kid is, but they will.  I think he'll take the league by storm next year.  

While the bullpen doesn't feature a lefty, it features a collection of pitchers that get lefties out.  But I really think this will be a masterpiece of a bullpen because the sheer velocity.  We'll feature six different relievers hitting the upper 90's, along with Middleton and Jerez at some point as well.   Plus Pena, Ramirez and Meyer can all go multiple innings, which takes a lot of pressure off the rotation.  And if a lefty is needed, jose Suarez down in AAA could handle the duty. 

I truly believe that this team would be a winner, and it would be built without forking over hundreds of millions on Harper or Machado.

Not crazy about Murphy.

[Torridd]

When I asked my colleague, a Mets fan, if the Mets would trade deGrom, this is what she said.

 

Really depends on what Mets get in return. However, the Mets are focused now on getting a new GM and possibly a head of baseball operations. It will certainly be interesting to see what a new GM will do – rebuild or start to add key pieces. If the latter, then DeGrom and Wheeler will likely stay put.

I am usually OK with trading anyone on the team as long as return is what Mets need (which is a lot). He’s under contract until 2021 so if there is a trade you would have him for a number of years; however, he is an older player (30) so it would be a win-now situation if you give up a lot for him.

 I would consider a Wheeler trade, but not likely to get much now since he is set to be a free agent after 2019.

[Mark68]

Here's a guy we should probably look into as a relatively inexpensive player with multiple-position flexibility (from MLBTR):

It “appears highly questionable” the Marlins will tender a contract to Derek Dietrich in the offseason, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Seeing Dietrich hit free agency early would be a surprise, considering he’s fresh off his third straight solid offensive season, capable of playing multiple positions and arbitration eligible for another two years (he’s set to earn a raise over his current salary of $2.9MM in 2019). The 29-year-old hit .265/.330/.421 (109 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 551 plate appearances this season, all while racking up significant time in left field and at first base. Dietrich has also garnered a fair amount of experience at second and third base since he debuted in 2013.

[Second Base]

11 minutes ago, Torridd said:

Not crazy about Murphy.

Not like I love the player, but I think the sample size is large enough enough that we've seen a mid/late career resurgence. 

He's a career .300 hitter and has hit .299, .322 and .347 that past few years.  During that time, he's averaged 45+ doubles and 25+ HR's per 162.  So he's left-handed, hitting for average, hitting for power and getting on base. 

Plus, he'd predominantly be playing 1B.  He's been a below average defensive second baseman in the past, but he's actually looked pretty good in limited time at first base.  Plus, given that background, it gives us some flexibility at second base in the event of an injury.  

If it's a shorter deal, I think Murphy can really help the team. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Mark68 said:

And the Braves would let go of Camargo for what reason exactly? Because we'd want them to?

Because they'd get Skaggs , Bedrosian, and another legit 3B prospect in Ward. You could probably swap out another prospect here too, but I'd prefer Ward, and it's not like he'd be a bad return for Atlanta. They also have Austin Riley, their #5 and a Top 50 prospect, possibly a year away or sooner. Camargo obviously put up a fantastic line, and ideally, that's his future, but it's also a little likely a bit over his career norm, so it could be selling a little high.

Bedrosian's a Georgia native, son of a Braves legend, and while he isn't great, he's still of value, and they could use some pen help.
Skaggs is still desirable - they have insane SP depth in the minors to mitigate his durability issues, plus he gives them a couple years of MLB-ready SP, with upside, while those same young guys develop. 

Camargo was never a Top 100 prospect, and his minor league number never suggested this. 
Career minor league slash of .278/.333/.372/.705, never hitting more than 6 HR.
If you told me that player would average .281/.343/.455/.799 with 36 doubles and 18 HR over a 162 pace, I wouldn't believe you, but here we are. 
Even if the Angels don't get the 2018 Camargo, he'd be a good get.

Good plate discipline, doubles power at a minimum, good contact. Sort of reminds me of what we're seeing with Luis Rengifo. 

Angels use money freed up from Skaggs and Bedrosian's arb. numbers to lessen the blow of signing Harper, Robertson, and a vet SP.

[Mark68]

Another possible target: Maikel Franco

The Phillies may not have a place for him but they will be looking to improve their D, so they may take someone like Cozart or Calhoun (especially if they miss out on the Harper or Machado sweepstakes) as part of a trade package. 

From MLBTR:

Rhys Hoskins’ move from first base to left field in 2018 didn’t exactly prove to be smooth, as the young slugger turned in one of the worst statistical seasons of any outfielder in baseball (-24 Defensive Runs Saved, -19 Outs Above Average, -11.3 Ultimate Zone Rating). Hoskins has already spoken about a desire to continue to improve, though he did admit when asked by Matt Breen of Philly.com that he’d prefer to be back at first base in an ideal world. Hoskins emphasized that he’s told both GM Matt Klentak and manager Gabe Kapler that he’ll play wherever he’s asked but spoke about the comfort level he feels at first base as opposed to in the outfield.

In his season-end press conference, Klentak acknowledged that moving Hoskins back to first base is “something we’ve thought a lot about,” Breen writes, though clearly there are numerous moving parts in that scenario. The Phils experimented with Carlos Santana at third base in September, though he comes with his own defensive shortcomings there, and that shift would render Maikel Franco without a spot. Expected offseason pursuits of marquee free agents Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado also figure to factor into the calculus. Though there are dozens of roads the Phils could take to get there, Klentak stressed that “there is no question” that the team needs to improve its defense.

[Jeff Fletcher]

38 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

Here's a guy we should probably look into as a relatively inexpensive player with multiple-position flexibility (from MLBTR):

It “appears highly questionable” the Marlins will tender a contract to Derek Dietrich in the offseason, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Seeing Dietrich hit free agency early would be a surprise, considering he’s fresh off his third straight solid offensive season, capable of playing multiple positions and arbitration eligible for another two years (he’s set to earn a raise over his current salary of $2.9MM in 2019). The 29-year-old hit .265/.330/.421 (109 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 551 plate appearances this season, all while racking up significant time in left field and at first base. Dietrich has also garnered a fair amount of experience at second and third base since he debuted in 2013.

I asked about Dietrich back when the Angels were trying to get a 2B (before Espinosa) and was told they didn’t want him because of his defense. (The same reason they didn’t want Scooter Gennett or Jed Lowrie, both of whom could have been had for relatively little at the time. Take that for what it’s worth.)

If his role would be 1B/util, that’s a different thing. 

I think both he or Murphy could be fits. They really need someone who can play multiple positions, including 1B. And they don’t seem to place that much of a priority on defense at 1B, in contrast to ... every other position. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

23 hours ago, totdprods said:

I'll present a couple ideas...

The Friggin' Go-For-It Plan // aka F*ck It, Let's Pitch plan:
1) Sign Harper for RF
2) Ship off Adell, Canning, Jones, and Yan for...Jameson Taillon (cheap, controlled, ace) and depthy RP
3) Flip Kole Calhoun, Tyler Skaggs, Taylor Ward, and Cam Bedrosian to ATL for Johan Camargo and Julio Teheran (pending FA)
4) Sign RP David Robertson 
5) Sign vet 1-yr SP/RP (Gio, Happ, CC, etc.)

Line-up: RF Harper, 3B Camargo, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, SS Simmons, 2B Cozart, C Arcia/Briceno
Bench: C Arcia/Briceno, UT IF Fletcher, IF Fernandez/Thaiss/Walsh, OF Hermosillo/FA
Rotation: Taillon, Teheran, Heaney, Barria, vet FA signee as your top 6; Shoemaker to pen, with Pena Suarez, Sandoval in AAA.
Bullpen: Robertson, Parker, Shoemaker, Robles, Anderson, Alvarez, Cole, with Buttrey, Jerez, PIT RP return, and eventually Middleton in line as reinforcements. 

Payroll surges a bit (Harper $35m?, Robertson ($11m), Teheran ($12m), and a cheap vet SP ($2-$8m) but there is opportunity to clear it off as the year progresses or next offseason.
The Angels also drop Calhoun ($12m), Skaggs (let's say around $6m), Bedrosian ($2-$3m). 
That's around $43m spent in AAV --- it's over the $30m we have to play with, but Harper qualifies as the mythical 'right player' for luxury tax, and Teheran is a deadline trade candidate - he has an option for '20. Shoemaker could also be dealt for RP help, salary help, or bench help, but I think he's going to rebound next year.

Angels get very cheap long-term solutions at 2B/3B in Camargo (age 25 in 2019, controlled '23, league minimum) and #1 SP in Taillon (age 27, controlled '22, league minimum in 2019) to offset dealing Ward and Canning. Harper, age 26, is an expensive long-term upgrade over Adell, but he's Bryce Harper.

The Angels would still have guys like Thaiss, Marsh, Rengifo, Suarez, Sandoval, Adams, Jackson, Maitan, Knowles, and Soriano as a Top 10.
Pujols, Parker, Shoemaker, Robertson, vet SP, and Cozart would be the only players 31 and older on the roster, none of whom with more than a couple years remaining on contract.

Really trading Skaggs and in return getting a much worst pitcher on a free agent year. Have You see Teheran Pitch? he losing his velocity and he's been garbage that last two years.

 Adell, Jones and Canning could easily get us Degrom and Wheeler, By amid for Taillion, if you going to gut out the system.

Here's the thing we not going to go all in, even with trout having two years Left. Billy is going to fill in the spots we need this year without gutting the system

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Really trading Skaggs and in return getting a much worst pitcher on a free agent year. Have You see Teheran Pitch? he losing his velocity and he's been garbage that last two years.

 Adell, Jones and Canning could easily get us Degrom and Wheeler, By amid for Taillion, if you going to gut out the system.

Here's the thing we not going to go all in, even with trout having two years Left. Billy is going to fill in the spots we need this year without gutting the system

Did you skim past Johan Camargo, or do you not know who he is?

Teheran is a throw-in, essentially an even salary swap for Calhoun's; we get another SP, they get a RF to replace Markakis. You could also remove him entirely from the deal, but I'd then look to find a different deal involving Calhoun. Or, Teheran moves midseason to the pen, if someone bumps him.

[Vlad27Trout27]

11 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

Another possible target: Maikel Franco

The Phillies may not have a place for him but they will be looking to improve their D, so they may take someone like Cozart or Calhoun (especially if they miss out on the Harper or Machado sweepstakes) as part of a trade package. 

From MLBTR:

Rhys Hoskins’ move from first base to left field in 2018 didn’t exactly prove to be smooth, as the young slugger turned in one of the worst statistical seasons of any outfielder in baseball (-24 Defensive Runs Saved, -19 Outs Above Average, -11.3 Ultimate Zone Rating). Hoskins has already spoken about a desire to continue to improve, though he did admit when asked by Matt Breen of Philly.com that he’d prefer to be back at first base in an ideal world. Hoskins emphasized that he’s told both GM Matt Klentak and manager Gabe Kapler that he’ll play wherever he’s asked but spoke about the comfort level he feels at first base as opposed to in the outfield.

In his season-end press conference, Klentak acknowledged that moving Hoskins back to first base is “something we’ve thought a lot about,” Breen writes, though clearly there are numerous moving parts in that scenario. The Phils experimented with Carlos Santana at third base in September, though he comes with his own defensive shortcomings there, and that shift would render Maikel Franco without a spot. Expected offseason pursuits of marquee free agents Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado also figure to factor into the calculus. Though there are dozens of roads the Phils could take to get there, Klentak stressed that “there is no question” that the team needs to improve its defense.

Franco could definitely be an target and it should not cost much.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Just now, totdprods said:

Did you skim past Johan Camargo, or do you not know who he is?

Teheran is a throw-in, essentially his salary for Calhoun's. You could also remove him entirely from the deal, but I'd then look to find a different deal involving Calhoun. 

I did, But just trading Skagg's would be stupid of us. I think he's has enough value that he's worth all lot more. He young and has two more years of control, prior to his hamstring injury he was pitching like an ace. 

[totdprods]

I've got to say, I'm legitimately confused as to why there wasn't more positive reception forTaillon. 
His 2018 numbers were great. He got even better as the year went on. 
His last 22 GS: 140 IP, 2.71 ERA, .245 BAA, 131 K

He was better this year than deGrom was last season.

Is that not front-line, ace production?
He was the second pick in the first round, and long touted as a potential dominant #1, is showing signs of fulfilling his potential...
He'll cost league-minimum next year. We'd have him for four seasons (deGrom for two), only two or three fewer than Canning.

Again, this reminds me of people downplaying Gerrit Cole, or saying Yelich was only a little better than Calhoun, or that Simmons was just a defensive-only SS...sometimes you have to nab that breakout star the year before they break out...

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I did, But just trading Skagg's would be stupid of us. I think he's has enough value that he's worth all lot more. He young and has two more years of control, prior to his hamstring injury he was pitching like an ace. 

Even if it solved 2B/3B long-term on the cheap, and allowed us to shed Calhoun's salary to make a run at Harper.

[Vlad27Trout27]

10 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Even if it solved 2B/3B long-term on the cheap, and allowed us to shed Calhoun's salary to make a run at Harper.

But we loose an Sp and that's the last thing we need . There are other options available in which we don't need to give him up. For example, Franco is piece that we could acquire, Ceaser Hernandez is another.  

[Pancake Bear]

20 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Even if it solved 2B/3B long-term on the cheap, and allowed us to shed Calhoun's salary to make a run at Harper.

Harper proved this season that he’s got serious issues,  but he’ll get paid as if he doesn’t. His personality isn’t exactly what I’d want in the clubhouse at that price, either. Most importantly, trading our best pitcher (by far our weakest position) to fix phantom problems is one of the most fan things ever. 

[Barrett]

Can people stop using the word douchey. Just because you don't like the guy from afar doesn't mean they are douchey. No one here other than I imagine Fletcher has probably met Harper. And I am guessing even he, while covering the Angels, doesn't know him that well. It is the most over played word here. 

[Barrett]

18 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I keep reading this, but no way are we trading upton.

First, hes super expensive and in his 30s...so whereas a team midseason might want him for a playoff push, i dont think his market would be huge in the offseason.

Two, we just signed him...im not 100 percent sure, but i imagine he has a long list of no trade teams.

Does he contract have a no trade clause though? I thought if you were with one team for 10 years or 5 years or something you get a no trade clause. He has only been here a year and a couple months.

[totdprods]

22 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

But we loose an Sp and that's the last thing we need . There are other options available in which we don't need to give him up. For example, Franco is piece that we could acquire, Ceaser Hernandez is another.  

We're also gaining three SP in that scenario (Taillon and a vet 1-yr), including one, Teheran, in that very deal. 
We're losing Skaggs' upside, no doubt, but we're gaining Teheran's durability. 
Teheran's last six seasons - 30+ GS, 175+ innings, 3.61 ERA, 109 ERA+ . Tyler's topped 20 GS once (last year) and 100 innings twice, in six different seasons now.
No doubt, Teheran is starting to come loose at the seams - but if he could be a 200 IP, 4.25 ERA guy, that's a tremendous improvement over our #4, #5, and #6 slots last year. 

Teheran, like Calhoun, also has an option for '20, so he has as much control remaining as Tyler.
Pick it up if he's good. Decline if he isn't. 
Could also pick it up and trade him, or even trade him midseason. Could see him adapting to the pen if all else fails too.

12 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Harper proved this season that he’s got serious issues,  but he’ll get paid as if he doesn’t. His personality isn’t exactly what I’d want in the clubhouse at that price, either. Most importantly, trading our best pitcher (by far our weakest position) to fix phantom problems is one of the most fan things ever. 

He's also proved that he'll walk 100 times with an OBP near .400. Put that in front of Trout and have fun.
I actually think he'd do well in Anaheim. He and Trout seem to have a great, friendly rivalry/respect of each other, and Trout's presence would moderate Harper's volatility. 

Bryce has been hyped as the Lebron of baseball since he was like 14. He's sort of delivered. But I do think there's a chance the pressure and expectations heaped upon him, pre-draft, minors, developing in majors, becoming a star, has probably affected him to a degree as well. I think in relaxed SoCal (he's from Vegas, so he's back home), flanked by Ohtani, Trout, even Pujols to a degree, there is a chance some of those concerns fade. 

He also might be a huge dbag though still. And I said nearly the same things above about Hamilton. So we'll see. But the production is undeniable, and at least he's not an addict.

[Barrett]

29 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Harper proved this season that he’s got serious issues,  but he’ll get paid as if he doesn’t. His personality isn’t exactly what I’d want in the clubhouse at that price, either. Most importantly, trading our best pitcher (by far our weakest position) to fix phantom problems is one of the most fan things ever. 

What is his serious issues? Guy put up an 889 OPS with 34 doubles 34 home runs while putting up a 388 OBP. I would hate to have those issues. 

[totdprods]

And honestly, it really isn't far-fetched for Arte to have decided a few seasons ago that he wanted to see Trout and Harper together in the OF, and directed Billy to keep payroll manageable until that point. Could be a partial explanation to the complete lack of interest in big name FAs (Upton aside, of course) for the last few seasons. 

And, FWIW, I know it's not money from the same line, but the club did just clear Scioscia's 10/$50m from the books. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Barrett said:

Does he contract have a no trade clause though? I thought if you were with one team for 10 years or 5 years or something you get a no trade clause. He has only been here a year and a couple months.

He had a no trade clause in his last contract. I guarantee he has one now. Doesnt mean he cant be traded, he has to agree  

[Barrett]

37 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

He had a no trade clause in his last contract. I guarantee he has one now. Doesnt mean he cant be traded, he has to agree  

I can't remember was the old contract ripped up and a new contract brought in? Or was it just an added year added to his contract already? But ya I imagine it would just be the case of him accepting a trade somewhere. He is used to it by now. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 minutes ago, Barrett said:

I can't remember was the old contract ripped up and a new contract brought in? Or was it just an added year added to his contract already? But ya I imagine it would just be the case of him accepting a trade somewhere. He is used to it by now. 

Pretty much every contract has a no trade claus. Some a strict no trade claus (which the player can forfeit), but usually its a list of 15 teams or so 

 

[Mark68]

32 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Pretty much every contract has a no trade claus. Some a strict no trade claus (which the player can forfeit), but usually its a list of 15 teams or so 

 

Or a Santa Claus.