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The official (slightly early) off season discussion thread. Let's hear your plan.


Docwaukee

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47 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

You get two reliable bullpen arms and hope someone steps up as closer because I don't see Blake Parker keeping the job.

 

You get a decent innings eater in Lynn and hope someone steps up to be a front of the rotation guy because the Angels can't afford to buy one.

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking, to be honest. Odds are, no one will magically become an ace or shutdown closer we need. We need to look for help from the outside and get someone that IS good. Not just hope someone will swoop in and save the day

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4 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Many know my admiration for Eugenio Suarez.  If we could get him without giving up Adell or Canning, I would give the Reds anyone else.  He's signed through 2025.   7.3m next year.  2025 is an option of 15m.  about 6/60 left without the option.  However, regardless of who we'd be willing to give up, Cinnci seems like they're going to start thinking about trying to win and they need pitching.  So it likely costs both Canning and Suarez in addition to Marsh.  I think that would be a no go for Billy.  What might work is if we do Skaggs or Heaney.  I think Heaney, Jose Suarez and another prospect.  Maybe Taylor Ward.  I would love for it to be Shoe instead of Heaney, but I don't think that gets it done unless we add Marsh instead of Ward.  You end up about +3 mil in salary.  (Heaney first year arb).  

With that, Cozart moves to 2b with Fletch at the util.  

so now we need to replenish our pitching even more. I think Corbin is a lock for the yankees.  I'm fine with that.  

Yusei Kikuchi is rumored to be coming from NPB.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kikuch000yus.  This seems like an outside the box add.  Don't know what the cost wold be in years, but I think he'd get less than $10m next year.  Maybe $8m.  (+11m)

I don't like solid yet over 30 SP free agent signings.  So instead of going with Keuchel, I'd rather see a 1+1 for JA Happ.  1/10m with a 10m option.   (+21m).  

We need a catcher that can hit.  I think Miami is going to want to cut a fat hog on a Realmuto trade.  Which would include Adell and Canning.  Not dong that when a couple solid free agents exist in Ramos and Grandal.  Ramos is entering age 31 so I think we can get him for 3 years.  3/45m.  First year 12mil  (+33m).  

At the end of the off season there are always players available that weren't expected to be.  Going with Leonys Martin as a 4th OFer.  1/3 (+36).  But I think they'll be a number of other players in this bucket to choose from.  

Adding 36mil is likely more than what the Angels would prefer for 2019, but I think there some wiggle room to shave 3-4 mil off of my estimates.  I could see them dropping JC Ramirez and signing him to a more affordable deal to save a couple mil.  

That leaves JMF as the platoon 1bman with 

So the final result?  

Simmons
Trout
Ohtani
Suarez
Upton
Ramos
Pujols/JMF
Calhoun
Cozart

bench:  one of Arcia/Briceno, Leonys Martin, JMF, Fletcher

rotation:  Skaggs, Happ, Barria, Kikuchi, Shoe.  Depth of Pena, Canning

bullpen:  Parker, Anderson, Buttrey, Cole, Robles, Alvarez, Bedrosian.  

What I like?  
That offense could lead the league.  There's also minor league depth.  
The bullpen could actually be pretty good.  

What I don't like?
The lack of a true leadoff hitter although I think Rengifo is going to steal the 2b job by mid year.  
The rotation is a bit thin for my taste.  
 

I think the ship for trading for Suarez, I think the reds at a position where they are looking to compete in the next few years.

i have always been high on kikuchi, and would have been my number 1 choice, but he's dealing with shoulder issue and if ohtani would be fine with having another Japanese player on the team.

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Yusiel Kikuchi is officially being posted. Should demand a contract similar to what Corbin will demand. Described to be a top of the rotation arm. I worry about his shoulder and his durability, which he has had issues with in Japan. He could be a great acquisition but could also be the newest member of our 60 day DL if we got him

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I think the shoulder issue will keep his price below Corbin personally.  He might even end up a Maeda type where he starts out in a rotation but ends up working back and forth between there and the pen.  Don't think we should anticipate him being a top of the rotation guy anymore.  Don't know that for sure, just a hunch.  But a nice #2/3 would be great.  

It does create an interesting dynamic if he's making way more than Shohei.  I doubt Ohtani would care because he probably just wants to win but I am not familiar with Japanese culture enough to know whether that would be bad form.  

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My offseason plan would consist of the following.


Angels have 116 M in real dollars committed right now. When you bring back the arbitration players it jumps up. Plus you have the benefits, etc.

So they have room, maybe more than some think. Because no one is guaranteed dollars if they are through arbitration, I expect they'll bring back Alvarez, Heaney, Skaggs, Parker and Robles, but Shoemaker, Ramirez, Marte, Bedrosian, Despaigne aren't guaranteed any dollars.

I think they actually cut all five of those guys, but try to work out a deal with Shoe and Bedrock.

Anyway...

That roster still needs a few things. They need a leadoff hitter, and a catcher, and a bench/platoon guy who can play 1st. They need another reliable starter, maybe two for depth.

I think Cozart can be the leadoff hitter and Fletcher can be if he starts. So can Ward. I think they need a guy with a .350+ OBP. So hopefully they have that in house or maybe with Rengifo.

They also need a backup/platoon 1st baseman to play 80-100 games at first and I think the best candidate is Marwin Gonzalez. He had a career year one year early, but his versatility is nice. He hit better in the second half, after starting poorly and then slumping again in July. If he plays 20 games at 3rd, 30 games in the OF, and 80 at 1st, he plays 135 games, which is basically 5 out of 6 games. I like that versatility. He's better than Marte by a long shot and Valbuena too.

He could return to 2017 form.

And with Gonzalez, the team has basically four infielders for two and half spots, so getting him 10-15 games in each corner outfield spot would be nice.

Pujols playing 3 days a week at first and one as the DH is going to make him only play 110 games or so, so that's tough for him to handle. Maybe it kicks him in the butt and he starts hitting better.

So FA #1 is Gonzalez, as he fits what the Angels want and won't be expensive.

FA #2 for me is either Grandal or Ramos, preferably Grandal, as the starting C. He's going to cost money, but I'm sick of a black hole offensively from the Catcher position. Yes I know it is a defense first position, but they need all the hitting they can get.

Then I turn to pitching and try to acquire Zach Wheeler in a trade, plus signing one of the top three attainable FA arms. Keuchel fits well with this team, but so does Corbin, and I'm actually ok with Gio Gonzalez, as well.

Finally I'd go after a solid reliever, and if there is room, make that guy a closer, like Herrera or Kimbrel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think the best candidate is Marwin Gonzalez. He had a career year one year early, but his versatility is nice. He hit better in the second half, after starting poorly and then slumping again in July. If he plays 20 games at 3rd, 30 games in the OF, and 80 at 1st, he plays 135 games, which is basically 5 out of 6 games. I like that versatility. He's better than Marte by a long shot and Valbuena too.

Errrrr....maybe.
They're actually very similar. Valbuena had a little more patience and power, Marwin a little more contact and defensive skill and versatility. Marwin likely ages a bit better.

Valbuena '14-'16, age 28-30:
.243/.334/.442/.776, OPS+ 114 - 124 G, 461 PA, 23 doubles, 18 homers, 53 walks, 100 K, 2.2 WAR annually
22% K%, 12 % BB%, 9.2% XBH%, 4.21 pitches per PA

Marwin '16-'18, age 27-29:
.268/.331/.445/.776, OPS+ 113 - 140 G, 528 PA, 28 doubles, 17 homers, 41 walks, 100 K, 2.7 WAR annually
22% K%, 7.8% BB%, 9% XBH%, 3.94 pitches per PA

That said, I liked the Valbuena signing and did not expect him to be so bad in 2018 (his 2017 wasn't far off expectations) so I would approve of signing Marwin to a similar contract, simply because I feel the utility he offers is tremendously useful, even if he is more the .730 OPS, 100 OPS+ league average bat guy that he's been his entire career aside from his crazy 2017. I was disappointed that Valbuena was basically only a 1B/3B during his stay here. 

A league average bat on the bench would be a huge upgrade over the last two seasons of Marte, Valbuena, Pennington, and Cowart.

I'll toss out another UT target available via trade...
Derek Dietrich '16-'18, age 26-28:
.264/.344/.423/.767, OPS+ 112 - 137 G, 476 PA, 23 doubles, 12 HR, 32 BB, 107 K, 1.4 WAR annually

Three other cheaper FAs with some utility...
Logan Forsythe, '15-'18, age 28-31:
.255/.341/.389/.729, OPS+ 100 - 130 G, 509 PA, 23 doubles, 11 HR, 53 BB, 108 K, 2.6 WAR annually
Steve Pearce, '16-'18, age 33-35:
.273/.354/.476/.830, OPS+ 122 - 84 G, 300 PA, 15 doubles, 12 HR, 30 BB, 54 K, 1.2 WAR annually
Daniel Descalso, '16-'18, age 29-31:
.243/.344/.418/.762, OPS+ 94 - 122 G, 370 PA, 17 doubles, 10 HR, 49 BB, 85 K, 0.5 WAR annually

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alright this is those that want us to acquire Bum, Wheeler, Noah or Degrom, it's not going to happen in free agency and I'll give you 2 reasons

1. the Nets are not selling, No one know where the giants may do, but all bets are they try to compete 

2. just to start the trade talks, we'll have to offer Adell and Marsh/Canning. basically all I'm saying is the asking price is going to be high.

with that said, when someone post the the trade deadline discussion, that's when we, including I, can post who we want. 

than I'll ask for us to trade for with Bum or Degrom and wheeler.

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22 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I am sure you all read this...

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/10/01/angels-to-focus-on-pitching-market-while-looking-internally-for-offensive-upgrades/

Eppler gave a lot of hints as to the direction.

Sounds to me like they’ll snag an infielder and relegate Fletcher to utility. Pujols will be pencilled in for a lions share of 1B playing time, Ohtani at DH, so not a whole lot of playing time for an obvious 1B/DH type. Either that aforementioned infielder will also be able to cover some 1B, or they’ll sign a 4th OF with some experience in the corners (perhaps making Calhoun or even Fletcher the back-up CF) or they’ll rely entirely on Fernández, Thaiss, and Walsh as 1B depth. Moustakas? He’d allow Cozart to move to 2B, Fletcher to UT, and cover some 1B in radical/unforeseen scenarios.

I think he’ll sign a reliever, maybe two (then triggering a deal of one of Alvarez, Parker, Bedrosian, or even Anderson maybe for a young C), and acquire two SPs.

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5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sounds to me like they’ll snag an infielder and relegate Fletcher to utility. Pujols will be pencilled in for a lions share of 1B playing time, Ohtani at DH, so not a whole lot of playing time for an obvious 1B/DH type. Either that aforementioned infielder will also be able to cover some 1B, or they’ll sign a 4th OF with some experience in the corners (perhaps making Calhoun or even Fletcher the back-up CF) or they’ll rely entirely on Fernández, Thaiss, and Walsh as 1B depth. Moustakas? He’d allow Cozart to move to 2B, Fletcher to UT, and cover some 1B in radical/unforeseen scenarios.

I think he’ll sign a reliever, maybe two (then triggering a deal of one of Alvarez, Parker, Bedrosian, or even Anderson maybe for a young C), and acquire two SPs.

That's what I would do, but I don't think that's what Eppler is going to do.

Simmons will play SS and Pujols will play as much 1B as he can. Cozart will play 2B or 3B. The other infield spot, and the 1b partner with Pujols will be whoever emerges among Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, Rengifo, Walsh, Thaiss. He basically told them all to prepare to come win a job.

From outside: they may get a part-time 1b supplement, and they will probably get a catcher. He didn't really address the 4th OF situation, but Hermosillo is really the only internal candidate there, and he seems like he has a long way to go (to me).

He pretty clearly said he didn't feel urgency to add to the position players at all, except for catcher, and even there I don't think he feels he needs to get a frontline guy.

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9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Simmons will play SS and Pujols will play as much 1B as he can. Cozart will play 2B or 3B. The other infield spot, and the 1b partner with Pujols will be whoever emerges among Fletcher, Ward, Fernandez, Rengifo, Walsh, Thaiss. He basically told them all to prepare to come win a job.

Odds increasing that Walsh will be protected from the Rule 5 and added to the 40?

And by snagging an IF, I'm not envisioning someone who will be in the way of those guys...someone a step better than say, Pennington, but no better than say a Valbuena-type. Rolling the dice on someone like Logan Forsythe who can easily step into a utility role, be DFA'ed relatively painlessly, or flipped for a Luis Madero/Erik Manoah-type. Someone just to provide a bit of vet insurance if all the kids press.

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On 9/29/2018 at 2:42 PM, Dtwncbad said:

 May I speak for a gigantic number of Angel fans?

The offseason plan needs to be really cheap and not definitively solve any problems so that the Angels go into 2019 with many question marks where the team will be no more than "competitive" as long as all the moves work out perfectly.

This sounds a lot like the official policy for the last three years. 

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