Farm System Trade Chips and Untouchables

[Stradling]

9 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Not Trading

Jo Adell - We'll have an opening in the outfield soon enough, he has superstar potential and it's too early to consider trading the best prospect we've had since Trout (unless you think Ohtani was a prospect). 

Griffin Canning - Because he's even better than this board is giving him credit for, which is really difficult because we're a bunch of Angel homers.  That's how electric he is. 

Kevin Maitan - Because he hasn't had time to develop yet, and it's too early to get any sort of reliable read on him.  Give him two more years then you'll have a better idea. 

Brandon Marsh - Simply put, we need more time before we know who he actually is. 

Jordyn Adams - Too early. 

Jeremiah Jackson - Too early. 

D'Shawn Knowles - Too early. 

Trent Deveaux - Too early. 

Jerryell Rivera - Too early. 

Jose Soriano - Too early. 

Open to trade, but only if the return is just what we need. 

Matt Thaiss, Jose Suarez, Luis Rengifo, Michael Hermosillo, Livan Soto, Patrick Sandoval

Assets that I fell can and should be traded in an attempt to fill the holes in the roster.

Jahmai Jones - The hit tool isn't there, and the Angels have a lot of second base options.  The HR/SB and plate discipline will almost certainly entice other teams. 

Chris Rodriguez - Soriano has better upside and is healthier.  If he proves healthy, and another team is offering something of value, trade him. 

Luis Pena - Definitely some future reliever value there.  But given Eppler's ability to find relievers in unexpected places, I'd trade Pena. 

John Swanda - Definitely talented, no doubt about that.  But playing for the same organization that lost Nick Adenhart, and being pulled over and arrested for having a fake ID and operated his vehicle while intoxicated shortly after being drafted is a reflection of a person of very poor character.  I'm not saying he doesn't deserve another chance, but I'd say let him pursue his dream elsewhere. 

Conclusion

As you may notice, there guys I'm willing to trade, it isn't exactly the cream of the crop.  That's because I feel that with this team's financial freedom, the upcoming free agent class, and our team needs, the Angels don't need to be looking for a franchise forming blockbuster of a trade.  They should be looking for good, consistent players at some key spots like third base, catcher and right field.  If it can't be traded for using lower prospects, then no problem, spend the money in free agency. 

This is ridiculous. 

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This is ridiculous. 

why @Stradling?  maybe I missed something, but I don't see anything  egregious.  

[Stradling]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

why @Stradling?  maybe I missed something, but I don't see anything  egregious.  

It’s basically over valuing every prospect we have.   

[goldenGlove]

I would say Adell is the only untouchable. Gonna need cost controlled multiyear contracts and he seems most likely to be an everyday player.

Canning is close to being untouchable just because of our need for pitching, and yeah trading him for an established ace straight up makes sense obviously but that doesn’t happen. And so trading him plus any other pieces I feel would only be worth it for a position player, as trading him for another pitcher kind of defeats the purpose of getting a pitcher imo. 

Maitan I’m also gonna say here. For anyone who golfs, Maitan has kind of a Freddy couples smooth swing when things are clicking for him. I think he might be the only other position player who could really be a star besides Adell. Too early to trade someone like that, we aren’t in a place to make moves like that. 

Anyone else can go haha. 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

It’s basically over valuing every prospect we have.   

And how many times have we done it, as a group?  Too often!  Look at how many prospects flamed out earlier this decade, and even now look at how overmatched Ward looks.

For instance, why is there so much talk on here about Jeryll Rivera?   No scouting site pays much attention to him.

 

[kevinb]

5 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Name a single instance where a franchise traded a Cy Young winner or candidate (it looks like DeGrom will win it this year) with multiple years of service remaining on his very team friendly contract, in a one for one deal for a pitching prospect.

If you can do that, then I have no problem playing the "what if" game with you. 

So he’s not no trade? Even Canning and another top player doesn’t have to be Adell and you trade for DeGrom and sign the paper work before the Mets have time to think. 

[kevinb]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

And how many times have we done it, as a group?  Too often!  Look at how many prospects flamed out earlier this decade, and even now look at how overmatched Ward looks.

For instance, why is there so much talk on here about Jeryll Rivera?   No scouting site pays much attention to him.

 

Prospects as a whole flame out. Not all but what’s the hit rate of stars in mlb? There are what maybe 10-15 major league super stars in baseball. Claiming a prospect is going to be a Star is like claiming your lotto ticket is gonna be the one that is going to win you the 200 million dollar ticket. Does anyone watch family guy. There was a funny episode where he wins a boat or he can trade that boat for a box but doesn’t know what’s in the box. And everyone tells him to choose the boat but Peter says but there might be a boat in the box. You can’t trade every prospect for major league players. But you definitely can’t hoard every one wishing on a Star that they all turn into super stars because that’s not going to happen either. 

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, Stradling said:

It’s basically over valuing every prospect we have.   

I didn't really get that at all from what he wrote.  I got that some guys still need to develop because at their current stage, they're likely not worth that much in trade.  Something I agree with for guys below A ball.  

I disagree with where he put a couple guys but I also agree with the notion that trading 2-3 of our top guys for one piece doesn't make a lot of sense right now.  

as an example, I love Simmons as a player.  hated the trade.  admitted I was wrong etc but he now has only two years of club control left and is approaching his 30's.  What has his value truly brought to the team?  Certainly, we could probably trade him now for someone that's likely to be better than Newcomb, but we aren't going to.  Sean Newcomb has 5 years of control left and is developing into a top of the rotation starter.  

So even if we go out and move Marsh, Jones, Suarez and others for a big time player or pitcher, does that move the needle enough for this team?  

with 3 years of club control left, Chris Sale cost the consensus best prospect in baseball plus another top 25 pitching prospect.  I am not sure there's a Chris Sale to be had right now.  The closest is deGrom with 2 years of control left.  But he's also already 30 years old.  He would absolutely cost Adell, Canning and probably two more players that would sting.  

the moral of the story for me is that we should be in 'wait and see' mode.  

The current team is going to finish below .500 or right around it.  We've got some really nice players.  And some really big holes to fill.  3b.  C.  2b maybe.  RF maybe.  Our pen is pretty terrible.  We need at least one starter assuming guys stay healthy for next year.  

But let's be realistic about 2019.  We could have a lot of stuff go right and grab a wild card spot.  But I'm not trading anyone from the top of our farm system to bolster that low odds opportunity.  

So I'm probably making a few moves that hopefully improve the team for 2020 and beyond but I definitely don't want to damage them for 2-3 years from now.  Maybe I grab a decent starter.  A short term answer to 3b/1b.  But I lock up Trout and maybe even consider extending Simmons.  

The farm isn't being overvalued.  There just isn't a ton of reason to start moving them.  yet.  

My hopeful scenario is that we lock up Trout.  Get at least three more years before an opt out after 2023.  Adell becomes the dynamic player we think he can.  Star level RFer.  I would extend Simmons too.  I think he will age well even though defense normally doesn't (super elite defense actually does).  Albert's got to be phased out.  Canning become a solid #2 in a couple years.  Skaggs stays healthy and we extend him beyond arb.  Maybe Heaney too.  Barria and Suarez fill out the back of the rotation.  Ohtani comes back and pitches once a week.  One of Rengifo, Jones or Fletcher becomes a solid everyday 2bman.  Somehow we piece together a better pen.  That leaves us needing a top of the rotation starter, a strong 3bman and a solid catcher.  

They'll be adjustments to that obviously.  Like make Kruger becomes a solid Catcher or Ward becomes the every day 3bman.  Maybe we bring back Richards for a couple of years.  Maybe Upton fall apart by 2020 and we need a LFer.  

But, contingent on a Trout extension, I like our chances to be really good in 2021.  That's probably when I make that trade for the top of the rotation starter costing our #1 prospect and others.  

Until I see true promise on the field, I'd be inclined to hold.  

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I csn say that we have two untouchable prospects .

1. Adell, he has the best raw tools in our system and greatest upside

2. Canning, best pitching prospect in our system , potential number 2.

Than we also have few others prospects, that i would consider untouchable but for right package could be trade able,

1. Marsh, I think its a bit too early to see what kind of player he is. He could still be a bust or he could have the best hit- tool in the system.

2. Jones, i have him in this categorize, his value has decreased a bit, and it's too early to trade him. I think Billy and co saw what they liked, to move him up to AA. That probably believe he can rebound 

3. Adams, Jackson, Soriano, Rodriguez- its too early at this moment. But Soriano or Roriguez could be trade pieces by mid season next year

 

Looking at the best trades, and the prospects that we've trade, i can saw that billy and co have a certain idea on how these guys are going to turn out, Newcomb is 25 and has an era over 4, its abit early for him still. Same with Gott and many other prospects that have been traded.   

[Second Base]

11 hours ago, Stradling said:

It’s basically over valuing every prospect we have.   

What's it like to read something and completely miss the point?  

1. I said "Not Trading" and then I specifically explained why I'm not trading, and under every single one that you think I'm overvaluing, I didn't apply a single value to them, I only said it's too early to trade them. 

2. I even went further and explained why it's too early, and related that back to the Angels current needs, what's available in baseball and the current economic climate.  Again, not applying a single value to these prospects. 

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You're whining about me overvaluing prospects that I never assigned a value to in the first place.  The whole exercise itself is hilarious because it's a voluntary opinion offered on my part based on what I've observed, regarding the future of young men I've watched play a game.  

And you stomp your feet and say I'm wrong because my opinion is different than your opinion.  I'm guessing you haven't even watched the vast majority of these kids play and if you have, I'm guessing you might've watched them once or twice, and are now puffing up your chest and speaking as if you have any authority whatsoever, or inside knowledge that the rest of us aren't working with. 

But yeah, sure, overvalue. 

[Second Base]

8 hours ago, Kevinb said:

So he’s not no trade? Even Canning and another top player doesn’t have to be Adell and you trade for DeGrom and sign the paper work before the Mets have time to think. 

Name a single instance, and I will be happy to respond.  

What is future Darth Vader traveled back in time to meet Anakin Skywalker and warned him that Chancellor Palpatine is really a sith lord and was playing him, and that if he just sticks with the jedi, Padme would be totally ok and he can be a dad and husband and live happily ever after?

That's about how relevant your whole Jake DeGrom straight up for Griffin Canning scenario is. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

What's it like to read something and completely miss the point?  

1. I said "Not Trading" and then I specifically explained why I'm not trading, and under every single one that you think I'm overvaluing, I didn't apply a single value to them, I only said it's too early to trade them. 

2. I even went further and explained why it's too early, and related that back to the Angels current needs, what's available in baseball and the current economic climate.  Again, not applying a single value to these prospects. 

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You're whining about me overvaluing prospects that I never assigned a value to in the first place.  The whole exercise itself is hilarious because it's a voluntary opinion offered on my part based on what I've observed, regarding the future of young men I've watched play a game.  

And you stomp your feet and say I'm wrong because my opinion is different than your opinion.  I'm guessing you haven't even watched the vast majority of these kids play and if you have, I'm guessing you might've watched them once or twice, and are now puffing up your chest and speaking as if you have any authority whatsoever, or inside knowledge that the rest of us aren't working with. 

But yeah, sure, overvalue. 

you're being overly defensive now.  if this thread becomes some pissing match I'm going to lock it.  It's a good topic so let's stay on it.  

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Name a single instance, and I will be happy to respond.  

What is future Darth Vader traveled back in time to meet Anakin Skywalker and warned him that Chancellor Palpatine is really a sith lord and was playing him, and that if he just sticks with the jedi, Padme would be totally ok and he can be a dad and husband and live happily ever after?

That's about how relevant your whole Jake DeGrom straight up for Griffin Canning scenario is. 

how about SPOILER ALERT????

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

you're being overly defensive now.  if this thread becomes some pissing match I'm going to lock it.  It's a good topic so let's stay on it.  

It's cool Doc.  I'll drop out of the thread.  I'm sure Strad's response would prove to be just as uninformed and opinionated as the rest of his are. 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

how about SPOILER ALERT????

SNAPE KILLED DUMBLEDORE!

[mtangelsfan]

2 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

It's cool Doc.  I'll drop out of the thread.  I'm sure Strad's response would prove to be just as uninformed and opinionated as the rest of his are. 

That's some passive aggressive stuff there.

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And how many times have we done it, as a group?  Too often!  Look at how many prospects flamed out earlier this decade, and even now look at how overmatched Ward looks.

For instance, why is there so much talk on here about Jeryll Rivera?   No scouting site pays much attention to him.

Rivera is all projection ...  He's more suspect than prospect based on performance but, he's one of those guys who was so incredibly loose/fluid when he was drafted it was easy to anticipate his stuff improving with refinement and the typical physical maturity that comes between age 18-21.   He will get a longer leash than most if for no other reason because he's LHed.

[floplag]

11 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And how many times have we done it, as a group?  Too often!  Look at how many prospects flamed out earlier this decade, and even now look at how overmatched Ward looks.

For instance, why is there so much talk on here about Jeryll Rivera?   No scouting site pays much attention to him.

 

Virtually always, save for a few of us that dont see them as the gift of the gods.  

Yes, you need them, no question, im not and never have suggested otherwise, but so few of them turn out to be anything more than replacement level players and yet the hype is virtually always far more than the reality.   This is especially true when you are generally always picking middle of the pack as we have been. 

I personally dont get people making list 10+ guys long, its pointless, the chances of almost anyone not in the top 5 being above replacement is low. 

If its not a 100% no brainer, they are not untouchable, and even they they are for the right piece to help the big club.  At the end of the day, isnt that the goal?  for the ML team to win?  all the prospects in the world don't mean anything unless you can do that.  

[Angel Oracle]

The best teams have a GM who can separate out the prospects to keep, and the ones to trade for help elsewhere.   A balance, and that's what Eppler needs to have. 

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

What's it like to read something and completely miss the point?  

1. I said "Not Trading" and then I specifically explained why I'm not trading, and under every single one that you think I'm overvaluing, I didn't apply a single value to them, I only said it's too early to trade them. 

2. I even went further and explained why it's too early, and related that back to the Angels current needs, what's available in baseball and the current economic climate.  Again, not applying a single value to these prospects. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You're whining about me overvaluing prospects that I never assigned a value to in the first place.  The whole exercise itself is hilarious because it's a voluntary opinion offered on my part based on what I've observed, regarding the future of young men I've watched play a game.  

And you stomp your feet and say I'm wrong because my opinion is different than your opinion.  I'm guessing you haven't even watched the vast majority of these kids play and if you have, I'm guessing you might've watched them once or twice, and are now puffing up your chest and speaking as if you have any authority whatsoever, or inside knowledge that the rest of us aren't working with. 

But yeah, sure, overvalue. 

Stop being so defensive Scotty.   I disagree with your opinion that virtually everyone is untouchable.   I’m not stomping my feet, I’m used to disagreeing with you.   The reason we disagree so much is because you usually paint yourself into a very tight corner with your opinions.  Then you try to back away from them.   Last yea you said Hermosillo was already better than Kole, I disagreed then this year you blamed Kole struggles on Hermosillo being rushed up to the bigs.  Sorry if I took the giant leap from your unwillingness to trade any of them to you overvaluing them, my bad.  

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

It's cool Doc.  I'll drop out of the thread.  I'm sure Strad's response would prove to be just as uninformed and opinionated as the rest of his are. 

Yep.  You’re the best.   I bow to your greatness.   

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, mtangelsfan said:

That's some passive aggressive stuff there.

He’s the single greatest talent evaluator this board has seen.   Well besides IP, Doc, Ettin, Blarg and the bat boy Stephen. 

[mtangelsfan]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

He’s the single greatest talent evaluator this board has seen.   Well besides IP, Doc, Ettin, Blarg and the bat boy Stephen. 

Well you weren't very nice either.

 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, mtangelsfan said:

Well you weren't very nice either.

 

I wasn’t mean.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

I dont know near as much as you guys about prospect, but i say adell and canning.

Like doc said, we could flip both for say a young kershaw, and it still wouldnt really have too much of an effect (because we have so many needs).

Also, as doc said, we should wait a bit. Assuming the FO is aiming for 2020/21 (which i agree with), it would be silly to screw up the plan youve been working on for a few years.

This would all be different if say richards and ohtani were healthy and pitching next year, but they arent.