Why I'm Somewhat Optimistic for Next Year

[Angelsjunky]

While not quite on @Chuckster70's level of eternal optimism, I tend to be more towards the rose-colored glasses than the gray-shaded. I've also gone on record as saying I'm more concerned about a positive trajectory over the next few years, with the hopes of perennial contention and regular 90+ win seasons starting in 2020 than I am with 2019. But on the other hand, I'm starting to think that it wouldn't be that much of a stretch for the Angels to be serious contenders for at least a wildcard berth next year. Why? Pythagorean.

The Angels' current Pythagorean Record is 71-66, +5 games over their actual record of 66-71. Why is this important and good news? Well, Pythagorean is a better indicator of how the team can be expected to perform next year. The differential between Pythagorean and actual is usually a combination of luck, chance, clutch performance, and various intangibles (i.e. random noise).

To put it another way, the 2018 Angels are probably closer to a .518 team than a .482 team -- at least on paper. Even if we split the difference, they're really no worse than a .500 team. So the question is: What do they have to do to get from where they are, a .500 team, to winning a wildcard berth and reaching the postseason?

To approach that question, we first need to answer: What constitutes a Wildcard team?

Let's look at the season record for the second wild card teams in each league going back to the beginning of the wild card format in 2012. The win totals for every second wildcard team, going back from the projected 2018 records to 2012, are: 96*/90*, 85/87, 89/87, 97/86, 88/88, 92/90, 93/88. The average for all fourteen team seasons for second wildcard berths is 89.7, with a median of 88.5. To put that another way, in most years winning 89-90 games is enough.

Let's settle on 90 as a good goal. Only four out of fourteen second wildcards were better than that.

Back to the Angels. While they're on pace for 78 wins, they're on pace for 84 Pythagorean wins. If we split the difference we get 81, a .500 team. So when looking at next year and a wildcard berth, we're talking about needing:

+6 Pythagorean wins

+12 actual wins

+9 adjusted wins

Where to Find Nine Wins?

Is it really so simple? Do all the Angels need to do is find a way to improve the team by nine wins? Of course not, because there are many unknown and uncontrollable factors. For instance, injury. The team could gain or lose five or more wins just by virtue of health. Or what about breakout and/or career years? Down years? Etc. But all a GM can do is try to improve the on-paper team by increasing the projected win total.

So where to find those nine wins? The simple and easy answer is: everywhere. To paraphrase Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday, baseball (football) is a game of wins (inches), and in order to win you've got to find them everywhere and claw your way to extra wins (inches).

Some of those wins can be made up by in-season play: clutch performance, in particular a stronger bullpen. But we're already accounting for that with the Pythagorean.

Some of those wins can be made up for by the lineup, some the rotation, and some the bullpen. I'm not going to go into detail, but I think there's a good chance all three areas improve, especially with a good catcher acquisition, better health from the rotation and/or young pitchers coming up, and savvy bullpen moves.

In other words, it doesn't take a lot to get this current team to 85+ wins. Add in a bit of luck and maybe a medium splash or two, and this could be a 90-win team.

And no, it doesn't require Machado or Harper, although Corbin and/or Grandal would go a long way. Or another decent catcher, a solid mid-rotation starter, and a couple quality relievers could do the trick.

The bottom line: While Eppler should build for a sustainable and contending future, there's reason to be moderately optimistic for 2019; at the very least next year's September games should be a lot meaningful than they are now.

[tdawg87]

I agree. Over the course of a full season you lose probably 10-20 games that could just as easily go the other way. Yes, the same could be said of wins, but all it takes is for some things to go the Angels' way and this current team is still in the playoff hunt.

Make some improvements via trade and free agency, and get some "luck" going your way, and this is a 90 win team. 

I'm not counting on luck, but I just don't see Arte allowing Eppler to spend enough to make truly significant improvements to the roster. Look at the M's and A's. Clearly they aren't in the playoff race purely due to talent. They've had so much shit go their way.

[disarcina]

I was very optimistic for 2018. I really thought with Trout and Ohtani excitement, Simmons being a solid up the middle guy at SS with his offense better than Halos ever expected -- and then I liked Maldonado behind the plate -- the rotation a bit suspect but serviceable and all teams seemed to be the same situation re starting pitcher.

This is why the Halos are likely to be making an announcement very soon -- Mike Scioscia will not be back in 2019 and will be (perhaps) assigned to a new front office role.

I really had hopes for this year - more so than in some other recent years when the optimism turned to another disappointment.......a manager can only have so many of those type of years -- and Scioscia is like a cat on his 11th life.

 

[Troll Daddy]

26 minutes ago, disarcina said:

I was very optimistic for 2018. I really thought with Trout and Ohtani excitement, Simmons being a solid up the middle guy at SS with his offense better than Halos ever expected -- and then I liked Maldonado behind the plate -- the rotation a bit suspect but serviceable and all teams seemed to be the same situation re starting pitcher.

This is why the Halos are likely to be making an announcement very soon -- Mike Scioscia will not be back in 2019 and will be (perhaps) assigned to a new front office role.

I really had hopes for this year - more so than in some other recent years when the optimism turned to another disappointment.......a manager can only have so many of those type of years -- and Scioscia is like a cat on his 11th life.

 

Scioscia is going to ba assigned ?  Sorry man

[GrittyVeterans]

New manager probably pushes them to .500 but we need several key additions to make a run next year 

[BackUpTheTruck]

If Shoe can stay healthy the rotation looks a lot better next year. I'm very optimistic with the offense.

[tomsred]

29 minutes ago, GrittyVeterans said:

New manager probably pushes them to .500 but we need several key additions to make a run next year 

I think you have that backwards.  Make several key additions, then hope the manager gets all he can out of them.  Managers win very few games on their own.

[Puget Sound Angel]

As long as Sosh is gone, that's a reason for optimism.

[Angel Oracle]

M's are beginning to implode already.    Who's going to be their rotation in 2019?   King Felix is just about done.   Paxton can't stay healthy.   LeBlanc and Kelly's dad do it with mirrors.    That leaves Gonzales.    Bullpen is solid enough, but will eventually cave in from overuse.   The lineup has the aging Cano and Cruz, a declining Seager, and a meh Gordon, which leaves Haniger and Segura as their main threats who aren't aging or declining.

A'th rotation is smoke and mirrors.   How long before their pen becomes overused in 2019?   Their offense is solid enough though.

That only leaves the four powers (Houston, Cleveland in a putrid division, Skanks, and Red Sux) clearly ahead, with one post-season spot up for grabs.  

Halos have as much of a chance as any of the other 10 teams to be that other WC team.    The offense and the bullpen should be improved some.   The rotation should be a little more stable in 2019, now that the returning pitchers (especially Heaney and Skaggs) have gotten some innings in.    Barria and Pena could potentially pitch 150 innings each in 2019.   Ohtani, if healthy, probably will pitch no more than 120 innings.   Lots of potential depth will exist in Shoe, Tropeano, Canning, Suarez, and Sandoval.  

[eligrba]

13 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

New manager probably pushes them to .500 but we need several key additions to make a run next year 

A new manager makes everyone better is what the Nationals thought.  I think it depends on the manager's approach, the players response and the level of talent in the lineup. 

For every complicated problem problem, there are simple solutions that never work.-Mark Twain

[yk9001]

23 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

A'th rotation is smoke and mirrors

Can we borrow some of that?

[stormngt]

16 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

While not quite on @Chuckster70's level of eternal optimism, I tend to be more towards the rose-colored glasses than the gray-shaded. I've also gone on record as saying I'm more concerned about a positive trajectory over the next few years, with the hopes of perennial contention and regular 90+ win seasons starting in 2020 than I am with 2019. But on the other hand, I'm starting to think that it wouldn't be that much of a stretch for the Angels to be serious contenders for at least a wildcard berth next year. Why? Pythagorean.

The Angels' current Pythagorean Record is 71-66, +5 games over their actual record of 66-71. Why is this important and good news? Well, Pythagorean is a better indicator of how the team can be expected to perform next year. The differential between Pythagorean and actual is usually a combination of luck, chance, clutch performance, and various intangibles (i.e. random noise).

To put it another way, the 2018 Angels are probably closer to a .518 team than a .482 team -- at least on paper. Even if we split the difference, they're really no worse than a .500 team. So the question is: What do they have to do to get from where they are, a .500 team, to winning a wildcard berth and reaching the postseason?

To approach that question, we first need to answer: What constitutes a Wildcard team?

Let's look at the season record for the second wild card teams in each league going back to the beginning of the wild card format in 2012. The win totals for every second wildcard team, going back from the projected 2018 records to 2012, are: 96*/90*, 85/87, 89/87, 97/86, 88/88, 92/90, 93/88. The average for all fourteen team seasons for second wildcard berths is 89.7, with a median of 88.5. To put that another way, in most years winning 89-90 games is enough.

Let's settle on 90 as a good goal. Only four out of fourteen second wildcards were better than that.

Back to the Angels. While they're on pace for 78 wins, they're on pace for 84 Pythagorean wins. If we split the difference we get 81, a .500 team. So when looking at next year and a wildcard berth, we're talking about needing:

+6 Pythagorean wins

+12 actual wins

+9 adjusted wins

Where to Find Nine Wins?

Is it really so simple? Do all the Angels need to do is find a way to improve the team by nine wins? Of course not, because there are many unknown and uncontrollable factors. For instance, injury. The team could gain or lose five or more wins just by virtue of health. Or what about breakout and/or career years? Down years? Etc. But all a GM can do is try to improve the on-paper team by increasing the projected win total.

So where to find those nine wins? The simple and easy answer is: everywhere. To paraphrase Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday, baseball (football) is a game of wins (inches), and in order to win you've got to find them everywhere and claw your way to extra wins (inches).

Some of those wins can be made up by in-season play: clutch performance, in particular a stronger bullpen. But we're already accounting for that with the Pythagorean.

Some of those wins can be made up for by the lineup, some the rotation, and some the bullpen. I'm not going to go into detail, but I think there's a good chance all three areas improve, especially with a good catcher acquisition, better health from the rotation and/or young pitchers coming up, and savvy bullpen moves.

In other words, it doesn't take a lot to get this current team to 85+ wins. Add in a bit of luck and maybe a medium splash or two, and this could be a 90-win team.

And no, it doesn't require Machado or Harper, although Corbin and/or Grandal would go a long way. Or another decent catcher, a solid mid-rotation starter, and a couple quality relievers could do the trick.

The bottom line: While Eppler should build for a sustainable and contending future, there's reason to be moderately optimistic for 2019; at the very least next year's September games should be a lot meaningful than they are now.

The bulllpen cost us at least nine wins alone.  Now add the shitty play of Calhoun, Cozart, Kinsler, Young, Valbueno during the first two months and you can say that is another 5.  As I argued in another post.  Its not our offensive needs another impact hitter.  Our offense needs to get rid of the shitty hitters and find those who are at least average.  Our pitching staff is where we need impact players.  We need a front of rotation starter and a lockdown closer.  That's where we need to spend the money.  I  believe Fletcher has already shown he can play average.  Fernandez hasn't shown much power or on base average, but he puts the ball in play and hits all sides of the field.  He easily could be another player playing average for a back up 1b.  The jury is still out on Ward although he has had his moments.  I like the idea of giving Young JR the 4th outfield spot.

Bullpen issues can possibly be resolved by a healthy Myers, Ramirez or Shoemaker.  

As unlikely as it seems there needs to be some serious consideration of making Pujols the part time player.  

 

[Stradling]

Let’s say we have an elite bullpen, how many losses do we get from having that bullpen?  At least 5, right?  We can’t assume that if you fix the bullpen they aren’t going to have their bad days.  Hell the best closer of all time fails 5% of save opportunities, so that is 2 a year right there.  None of this will matter if we don’t get some bats that can get us some insurance runs or score late in a game when the game is tied or down a run.  

[mulwin444]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Let’s say we have an elite bullpen, how many losses do we get from having that bullpen?  At least 5, right?  We can’t assume that if you fix the bullpen they aren’t going to have their bad days.  Hell the best closer of all time fails 5% of save opportunities, so that is 2 a year right there.  None of this will matter if we don’t get some bats that can get us some insurance runs or score late in a game when the game is tied or down a run.  

Yeah, the BP was a "problem" because the starters couldn't go beyond 5 innings and the leads were usually 1 or 2 runs so the "blown saves" were a bit misleading since a lot occurred between 5th to 7th inning.

Trout, Ohtani (DH), Simmons, Calhoun (.270 .353 .814 OPS last 28 days which seems more likely and sustainable), and Upton are a solid offensive foundation but they have room to upgrade at 2B, 3B, and C. 1B is what it is at this point but I think JMF and Thaiss can provide extra security there.

They have options to fill 2B with Fletcher, Cozart, Rengifo, and JMF.  

They have options to fill 3B with Ward, Cozart, and Fletcher.

Saying that, there is also no "sure things" in that group and, if you can find an upgrade, I think you have to go for it.

Catcher is the only position they really have no options at as Briceno and Arcia are coming down to Earth offensively though they could be decent placeholders if nothing can be found.  They both call a decent game at are throwing runners out at a respectable 33%.  

Also, in terms of free agency, neither Grandal nor Ramos are perfect fits.  Ramos is offensively good, plays decent defense, but is over 30...Grandal is younger, has power, but can't hit lefties and his defense is poorer.  

I think, if Arte is willing to spend the money or prospect currency, you can get a free agent SP or two, fill a need at 3B or 2B with better offensive option, and the BP suddenly looks a lot better. 

[totdprods]

I'm perhaps one of the few not worried at all about the pen. Eppler seems to have as good a mind as any as to how to put together a pen...our struggles have not been for lack of trying. 

Remember when we all were laughing at Oliver Drake?
After the Angels claimed him, he went down to SLC, rattling off a 1.17 ERA in 7.2 innings, allowing only 3 hits, walking 1, striking out 8. 
Angels DFA him, he goes to Toronto, gets rocked, then gets scooped up by Minnesota. 
13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, .130 BAA, 5 walks, 14 strikeouts. 

Angels claimed Kirby Yates and let him go, where he went to San Diego and put up a 2.91 ERA in 108 innings over two years, striking out 160. 

J.C. Ramirez had a career ERA of 6.40 when the Angels claimed him, and he in turn gave them a 2.91 ERA over 46 innings before converting into a decent SP. 
Bud Norris turned his career around here, as did Blake Parker. Yusmeiro Petit had arguably his best season here. David Hernandez has a 2.55 ERA in Cincinnati. Hansel Robles has righted the sinking ship he faced with the Mets. Taylor Freakin' Cole is pitching well. Blake Wood was finding his footing as a solid reliever with good peripherals before his injury. Parker Bridwell gave us 2 WAR and 120 innings of 3.64 ball. Justin Anderson eluded the entire board and became a quality MLB reliever out of nowhere. Andrew Bailey's career was done, yet the Angels squeezed 15 innings of sub 2.00 ERA ball out of him beforehand. Even Deolis Guerra was solid. 

There's a lot of evidence to suggest the Angels know what they're doing when it comes to finding relievers, and pitchers in general. A lot of relievers have come here and turned their careers around. They've just been totally destroyed by basically not having a starting rotation for three seasons now, and an extremely Jekyll and Hyde offensive act, which really eliminates any sort of safety net the pen has to work with. 

Can't point to anything as promising on the offensive side...Maybin, Cozart, Kinsler, even Upton to a very slight degree, Valbuena, Espinosa, Nava/Gentry...Eppler's offensive track record isn't as hot, save for Marte, Maldonado, and Escobar. 

I'm much more worried about SP health and the offense than I am the pen. They've truly been our downfall.

[Angel Oracle]

Get your act together, Cozart!     Your 2018 offense, before getting hurt, was absolute poo-poo platter!   Lowest seasonal BA in MLB career

They're not paying you $12.7 million per season to totally suck at the plate!

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Get your act together, Cozart!     Your 2018 offense, before getting hurt, was absolute poo-poo platter!   Lowest seasonal BA in MLB career

They're not paying you $12.7 million per season to totally suck at the plate!

Can you wait for him to get healthy before you yell at him in a post he will never read?

[Angel Oracle]

Point taken (LOL), remember though that Cozart was healthy until he hurt his shoulder, and still put up a .219 BA and .658 OPS.

[fan_since79]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

As unlikely as it seems there needs to be some serious consideration of making Pujols the part time player. 

He's likely to play himself out of the lineup by mid-season, but by that time we may again be mired back in the standings. At some point the front office and whoever's managing this team have to come to their senses about Albert.

 

[ScruffytheJanitor]

Another way to think about it:

• Start with Trout, Simmons, Upton, Ohtani, Calhoun, and a healthy Cozart in the lineup
• Count Heany, Skaggs, Barria (and maybe Ohtani) as the starting ingredients for your rotation
• Assume that you can at least count on 2-3 from Parker/Anderson/Bedrosian/Alvarez/Others to be solid-ish setup guys
• Consider that we should be able to dip into the farm/Youth  (Fletcher, Canning, Ward, Theiss, Lund, Pena. Rengifo, Jones....) to patch up the roster as needed-- either directly or as trade bait

Then we need to find 2-3 impact players and another 2-3 league-average contributors to fill roles. Just two good pitchers (including a closer) and a decent 3B or Catcher gets us there. If we can also add another high-end bullpen arm and add another innings eater, then we should be in the thick of things.

 

 

[Make Angels Great Again]

We need to get the best starting pitcher we can reasonably acquire this off season, for sure. We have options for 3B next year with Cozart, Ward and Fernandez.

Then we have to get a dominant bullpen piece like Ottavino.

Then print the WS tickets.

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

He's likely to play himself out of the lineup by mid-season, but by that time we may again be mired back in the standings. At some point the front office and whoever's managing this team have to come to their senses about Albert.

 

I say play him every day t 1b until he needs surgery again.

[Angel Oracle]

19 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

We need to get the best starting pitcher we can reasonably acquire this off season, for sure. We have options for 3B next year with Cozart, Ward and Fernandez.

Then we have to get a dominant bullpen piece like Ottavino.

Then print the WS tickets.

One thing stands out this year about Ottavino.   His hits allowed are waaaay down from past years, while his walks are in line with his career numbers.

His FIP tends to be close to his ERA, and this year is no different.

Has he truly figured out how to keep the hits from coming, going forward?   Or is this a fluke season? 

A second thing stands out.   Despite pitching half the time at Coors Canaveral, he's only allowed 3 HRs in 67 innings, and just 39 HRs lifetime in 402 innings. 

[totdprods]

I see no reason to bank on any FA reliever saving the pen. 

Not saying we shouldn't sign one or two, but it's ridiculous to think that any reliever will pitch well enough to be 'dominant' any given year, or even pitch well enough to elevate the pen overall of a new level. 

For all we now Deck Friggin' McGuire could have a better year than Ottavino next season.

[Docwaukee]

somehow piecing together a pen that approximates what  we had in 2017 is the first big step.  It was well known that this starting staff was going to be short on innings.  that's five wins.  

a catcher that can hit and play solid defense.  that's another win

a solid starter.  two wins.  

a healthy shoemaker.  two wins.  

skaggs, heaney, barria and ohtani pitch more innings.  three wins.  

not having Luis Valbuena.  one win

bounce back years from Calhoun and Cozart.  two wins.  

increased contribution from rookies/young guys.  two wins.

improved luck.  4 wins. 

 

I figure there's about 20-25 wins out there floating in the off season breeze.  If we can grab about half of them somehow, we've got a decent shot.   

But all those wins are theoretical though.  You can't have a .364 winning % vs. teams above .500 and expect to sniff the playoffs though.   A bunch of those teams are still going to be better than us next year regardless of what we do yet you've got to play them tougher.  going 2-4 vs. BOS instead of 0-6.  2-4 vs. NYY instead of 1-5.  3-4 vs Tampa instead of 1-6.  .500 vs. Houston instead of 6-10.  That's 7 wins right there alone.