Albert Pujols - Career BA tracker - 4/30/19 at .302 (Down .003 since last year this time)

[zenmaster]

The day his contract expires can't get here fast enough. I hold onto hope that he'll hang it up early (but I don't think he will). I thought maybe he'd be stat oriented enough that he'd retire before his career BA dips below .300. I put together a spreadsheet to try and estimate when this will happen. Since I don't want to waste my time on this too much I used round numbers to estimate. So these numbers will be off but maybe a good indicator.

I put him in as a .250 hitter the rest of his days and playing 162 games a year just for ease of creating the spreadsheet. So it may even out in that he'll hit lower than .250 the rest of his days but also play much less games than 162 per year so maybe those things balance each other out. Anyway, popping all this into a spreadsheet I estimate that his average will dip below .300 on 8/1/2019. If he plays significantly less games or hits significantly worse, this will move the date forward or backwards. I'm going to update it later when I get time to limit his number of games per year and lower his average below .250 for the rest of his days but for now this is the easiest.

Using the same generic formula his average will be .293 when his contract is up at the end of 2021. I'll update this thread periodically as his career average drops. I don't predict the next drop to .304 until 4/4/2018 if he hits at a .250 clip until then. 

In summary, this is all depressing because I thought his average would drop faster. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

I thought it would be dropping faster, too. But why do you have him batting .250? That would be a vast improvement over what hes giving us this year.

[zenmaster]

4 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I thought it would be dropping faster, too. But why do you have him batting .250? That would be a vast improvement over what hes giving us this year.

It was easiest to do .250 or 1/4 everyday. I'm adjusting now to see what .230 the rest of his career puts does to these numbers. 

[eligrba]

Albert does not worry about his career average when riding........

 

[fan_since79]

38 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

Anyway, popping all this into a spreadsheet I estimate that his average will dip below .300 on 8/1/20019.

So you're telling us we're stuck with him for another 18,000 years?

A long, slow decline takes on new meaning.

[Angel Dog and Beer]

I might seriously kill myself if I have to watch his soft grounders to the left side for another 18,000 years.

[zenmaster]

22 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

So you're telling us we're stuck with him for another 18,000 years?

A long, slow decline takes on new meaning.

It sure is going to feel like 18,000 years.

[fan_since79]

Albert would have to hit at least .2999999 from here on to finish at a cool .300 in the year 20019.

That's assuming 600 AB's a year, which he'll get in the three-spot. Just 5.5 fewer hits a year though, and he finishes at .299.

 

 

[Jason]

I really wonder what it is that motivates him at this point in his career? It's not World Series aspirations, obviously it isn't BA so it must be HR/hits that he's striving for. Maybe he just likes playing regardless of his performance. 

[zenmaster]

Ok, I adjusted the calcs to be a bit more accurate. I put him at 150 games per year until his contract is up with 573 ABs per year hitting .230 per year. With this formula his average drops to .299 in late May / early June 2019. He will be hitting .290 when his contracts ends with this formula. 

 

[fan_since79]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

I really wonder what it is that motivates him at this point in his career? It's not World Series aspirations, obviously it isn't BA so it must be HR/hits that he's striving for. Maybe he just likes playing regardless of his performance. 

The 3,000 hits for sure, and maybe Mays' 660 HR's. That would put him 5th all-time. 2,000 RBI is also in reach.

 

[Stradling]

I've gotten to the point that I look for any positive signs.  The one thing I can come up with is the last week he looks like he is trying to go to right field a lot more.  When he does that, because of the shift, he is a much better hitter.  

As far as how much longer he will do this, my guess would be next year will be his last year, or he will come back next year and if he has similar results, but has eclipsed the 3000 hit mark, I could see him announce that 2019 will be his last season.  

[fan_since79]

He's still driving in runs at a pretty decent clip. I don't know how, but he's doing it.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, fan_since79 said:

He's still driving in runs at a pretty decent clip. I don't know how, but he's doing it.

As tough as many of his bats are to watch, he still has some clutch left in him. 

[zenmaster]

3 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

He's still driving in runs at a pretty decent clip. I don't know how, but he's doing it.

Imagine if he didn't have the greatest player on the planet batting before him? 

[Angel Oracle]

24 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I've gotten to the point that I look for any positive signs.  The one thing I can come up with is the last week he looks like he is trying to go to right field a lot more.  When he does that, because of the shift, he is a much better hitter.  

As far as how much longer he will do this, my guess would be next year will be his last year, or he will come back next year and if he has similar results, but has eclipsed the 3000 hit mark, I could see him announce that 2019 will be his last season.  

Why does he get away from using RF so much?   What makes him still so pull happy?   Stubbornness?   Failure to understand his current limitations?

[Lhalo]

27 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

Ok, I adjusted the calcs to be a bit more accurate. I put him at 150 games per year until his contract is up with 573 ABs per year hitting .230 per year. With this formula his average drops to .299 in late May / early June 2019. He will be hitting .290 when his contracts ends with this formula. 

Fuck.

[JustATroutFan]

If he ends the year with a .230 average for this year and does it again next year with almost 600 at bats, I think Albert will have a career batting average under .300. Shocking, I know.

[bloodbrother]

At the time of his signing with the Angels, his career BA was .328. 6 years into his career with the Angels and he's threatening to have it fall under .300. Halos got finessed

[ten ocho recon scout]

53 minutes ago, Jason said:

I really wonder what it is that motivates him at this point in his career? It's not World Series aspirations, obviously it isn't BA so it must be HR/hits that he's striving for. Maybe he just likes playing regardless of his performance. 

I honestly think hes set a goal in where he ends on the HR list. Obviously all time record is out. But maybe passing mays for 5th...wbich sadly will take another 2 years.

But i think its that, the 2K rbi and 3K hits, and he calls it. And i think thats why hes still batting up front. It sucks to watch, hurts the team. But if it does get him to retire eaely, its worth it in big picture terms.

[ten ocho recon scout]

50 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

The 3,000 hits for sure, and maybe Mays' 660 HR's. That would put him 5th all-time. 2,000 RBI is also in reach.

 

Beat me to it

[zenmaster]

3,000 hits = 2018

2,000 RBI = 2019

660 HR = 2020

Looks like he is ours for awhile.

[ten ocho recon scout]

The HR thing worries me. But i think he gets the hits and rbi by next year.

Hes pretty close in rbi i think, like around 70. Still has a month and a half this year, so going into next year he should only need (knock on wood) 50 or so.

(Probably 65 the way hes hitting now).

But if he keeps sucking, even the HR thing could adjust (we dont even know if hes chasing mays anyway). 

[zenmaster]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

The HR thing worries me. But i think he gets the hits and rbi by next year.

Hes pretty close in rbi i think, like around 70. Still has a month and a half this year, so going into next year he should only need (knock on wood) 50 or so.

(Probably 65 the way hes hitting now).

But if he keeps sucking, even the HR thing could adjust (we dont even know if hes chasing mays anyway). 

He's 71 hits short of 3,000

He's 108 RBI short of 2,000

He's 51 HR short of 660

[fan_since79]

2,000 RBI by ASB 2019. Then hopefully a buyout and he calls it a day.