Coaching staff... to blame or not to blame

[Dave Saltzer]

Although Mike Butcher has not specifically been mentioned, I know that his name will come up in this thread.  I have also thought that he did not do much to develop the pitchers that he was coaching - that they did not improve much under Butcher.  However, looking at the 2013 Media Guide, I see that "since taking over as pitching coach in 2007, Butcher's starters lead the AL in wins (409) and shutouts (24), & rank second in innings pitched (5976.2), complete games (49) and are T2nd in ERA (4.07)...In that same span, Halos relievers lead the AL with 276 saves."  I realize that this data is a year old and may not represent a complete picture of Mike Butcher's value, however I believe coaches should be measured over a longer period of time and certainly not the last three games.  I do however think that the Angels might consider taking a fresh direction if Mike S cannot turn this thing around fairly soon even though he is under contract until the end of 2018. 

You have to give it a longer time. We've played all of 3 official games this season, or a whopping. 1.85% of the season. Can we please wait a month or two before completely panicking? 

[19HALO71]

Although Mike Butcher has not specifically been mentioned, I know that his name will come up in this thread.  I have also thought that he did not do much to develop the pitchers that he was coaching - that they did not improve much under Butcher.  However, looking at the 2013 Media Guide, I see that "since taking over as pitching coach in 2007, Butcher's starters lead the AL in wins (409) and shutouts (24), & rank second in innings pitched (5976.2), complete games (49) and are T2nd in ERA (4.07)...In that same span, Halos relievers lead the AL with 276 saves."  I realize that this data is a year old and may not represent a complete picture of Mike Butcher's value, however I believe coaches should be measured over a longer period of time and certainly not the last three games.  I do however think that the Angels might consider taking a fresh direction if Mike S cannot turn this thing around fairly soon even though he is under contract until the end of 2018. 

Thanks for this. Very interesting information.

[Mark68]

Although Mike Butcher has not specifically been mentioned, I know that his name will come up in this thread.  I have also thought that he did not do much to develop the pitchers that he was coaching - that they did not improve much under Butcher.  However, looking at the 2013 Media Guide, I see that "since taking over as pitching coach in 2007, Butcher's starters lead the AL in wins (409) and shutouts (24), & rank second in innings pitched (5976.2), complete games (49) and are T2nd in ERA (4.07)...In that same span, Halos relievers lead the AL with 276 saves."  I realize that this data is a year old and may not represent a complete picture of Mike Butcher's value, however I believe coaches should be measured over a longer period of time and certainly not the last three games.  I do however think that the Angels might consider taking a fresh direction if Mike S cannot turn this thing around fairly soon even though he is under contract until the end of 2018. 

I do not count "pitcher wins" as a stat that validates any individual. It's a team stat and should be thought of as such. Innings pitched (and complete games) could be a result of a starting staff being left on the mound because nobody in the pen can be trusted. So the only argument in Butchy's favor is ERA...some of which can be explained by the park and its location.

[Hollyw00d]

I have to disagree. Having spoken with the players and the coaches, watching them interract, I do not see it.

 

This was a bad series. That's it. A bad series.

 

The Angels were what, 11 out of 12 for their final Spring Training games? So, stretching it out, they are what, 11 out of their last 15?

 

By the way, the Yankees are 0-2 against the Astros. Do you really think it's the end of the season for them?

 

 

except 12 of those 15 games didn't count for jack s*** and really are irrelevant to the regular season and the performance when things start to actually matter.

 

I'm expecting the yankees to be a 3rd or 4th place team this year, so yeah it's not a huge shock to me they're 0-2.  Do we really want to compare ourselves to another mediocre team?

[Homebrewer]

You have to give it a longer time. We've played all of 3 official games this season, or a whopping. 1.85% of the season. Can we please wait a month or two before completely panicking? 

Tried that, it didn't work. This season, panic is never going to be "too soon".  I don't think fans would be so impatient if this team showed ANY remote signs of competency in those three games, but they have stunk in every aspect of the game.

In only 3 games, many have seen enough, and think some action is needed quickly.

Pitchers are voicing their dissatisfaction, not just us. All three starting pitchers have complained to the media in only 3 games.

The ship is listing badly and unless something is done quickly, some action taken, it is going to capsize.

[Chimi]

Since people bring up spring so much, a lot of the spring games were won by our minor leaguers late in games. The starters looked very weak all spring outside of a few. But we had a lot of come from behind wins late in games with our minor leaguers which made our spring record look good.

[Hollyw00d]

I do not count "pitcher wins" as a stat that validates any individual. It's a team stat and should be thought of as such. Innings pitched (and complete games) could be a result of a starting staff being left on the mound because nobody in the pen can be trusted. So the only argument in Butchy's favor is ERA...some of which can be explained by the park and its location.

 

I agree completely

[Troll Daddy]

It's only been three days of baseball ... but the players are the problem in the first three games.

[mp170.6]

I'm not frustrated they started 0-3.  I'm frustrated they started 0-3 against an AL West division rival without putting up much of a fight.   

 

This is a problem the Angels have had for years.  Once they fall behind in the division standings, they have a terrible time gaining any kind of ground because there's no urgency felt by the team or coaching staff.  People like to say a win is a win, but it's far more important to win games against Seattle, Oakland, Texas, and Houston than it is any other teams because the AL West games account for 46.9% of the schedule! 

[HaloFan85]

It's early, but I understand the concern.  I've been in the fire Scioscia/Butcher camp for the last couple seasons now.  I feel like the team needs a rebuilding of its entire culture and coaching staff, and that usually begins with the skipper.  I just don't feel like Sosh has the ability to "rally the troops" anymore.  The problem is that Sosh has his fingerprints at every level of this organization, so it's easy to understand why Arte has been hesitant to look for a new leader.

 

If the team fails to make the playoffs again this year, then Arte will be faced with the same choice as last year: stay loyal or go in a new direction?  If he stays loyal, he'll just be putting another plug in his flat tire instead of going out and buying a new one.  We'll find out by the end of the season.  All we can do for now is just sit back and watch.

[Mark68]

You have to give it a longer time. We've played all of 3 official games this season, or a whopping. 1.85% of the season. Can we please wait a month or two before completely panicking? 

You mean like last year or the year before?

 

We can't wait. And, honestly, the organization can't afford to do so, either. You wait a month or two and you're buried, plain and simple.

 

The next four games are in Houston, then three in Seattle, then three at home vs the Mets and three more at home vs the A's. That will be 13 of the first 16 games against divisional rivals, and 13 of the first 16 games against teams who were nowhere near .500 last season. If this team is no better than, say, 6-10 in this stretch (including the three games just pissed away), that will be the time for the front office to jump on the panic button with all of its strength.

 

I'm not kidding here. If we can't win 6 of the next 13 games, Scioscia needs to be gone. We can no longer accept digging ourselves into a huge hole in the beginning of the season that will be nearly impossible to emerge from.

[Butcher'd]

It's funny...I jokingly predicted that this Mike Scioscia run club would start 2-8 again. It's a very real possibility if they lose 3 out of 4 to Houston this weekend. They need to sweep Houston. No messing around, just win the damn games. We have Richards, Skaggs, Weaver, and Wilson pitching...at the very least we should win 3 of these games.

[tdawg87]

You have to give it a longer time. We've played all of 3 official games this season, or a whopping. 1.85% of the season. Can we please wait a month or two before completely panicking?

Yeahhh I agree with most of what you have said in this thread, but the Angels missed the playoffs in 2012 because it took them a month to get it going. Last year they were basically out of it by mid-May.

I think Angels fans have held onto the "it's early" thing for too long. The last few years have proven that every game matters.

[DB24]

Vladdy's aim / Whoever selected Baylor to catch the first pitch.

[xboom28x]

It's not just the 0-3 start. It's the fact that the bullpen has looked like blow torch, there has been numerous wasted opportunities on offense and the Angels were pretty much blown out of each game. If there were some 9-8 slug fests or 2-1 pitching gems I could get on board with the "we're just 0-3, it's still early" crowd. But it's not that way at all. Not even close. This team looks exactly the same as it has for the past 4 years. I would think that there would be some urgency in the club house this year. Let's see if they show any sign of that on Friday.

[mp170.6]

The trouble with "it's too early" logic is that people reassure themselves through procrastination.  Oh, no worries, we'll just fix that later.  This is like telling your kid it's too early to start their homework at midnight because school doesn't start until 8:00am.  

 

We have NO IDEA what challenges lie ahead in terms of injuries and slumps to key players at this point.  What if we lose Pujols and Trout and Weaver for extended periods?  How do you suppose the Angels are going climb out of a hole to first place without them?  The time to be winning lots of games is right now when everybody is healthy. 

[Homebrewer]

Sobering Series Stats

 

runs   M 26    A 8

hits    M 34     A 17

BB     M 19     A 6

RISP M 12-30  A 1-19

 

Team ERA  M 2.00  A 8.33

[mtangelsfan]

damn that can't really be much uglier.  Entire team fail.

[Mark68]

Sobering Series Stats

 

runs   M 26    A 8

hits    M 34     A 17

BB     M 19     A 6

RISP M 12-30  A 1-19

 

Team ERA  M 2.00  A 8.33

Those stats aren't sobering. They're making me want to drink.

 

And I can't. I'm at work.

[Homebrewer]

Team BA  M .309   A.177

[ten ocho recon scout]

I dont think theres a motivation problem. I doubt theres a 'so what' attitude thats making them suck. Im sure just about every guy on this team or any other has deep pride and wants to win. And I doubt there was any sort of 'lax routine' going on this week that has led to this start.

I think they just got owned by great pitching, and burned by an ineffective crop of RP's. Weaver ive said for a while isnt the same guy, but will still be good. CJ got lit up, but I dont think it will be a trend. Santiago did pretty well.

Once the bats get going we should see some better results. And yes, the bats have to get going (and I can see some problems, like pujols' and hamilton's approach).

Im as mad as all of you, but for now im not blaming the coaches (yet). As vocal as ive been about replacing sosh and butcher, they arent grooving fastballs and trying to pull sliders away. Right now the blame is on the 25 guys on the roster.

Dipoto is obviously on the hot seat. But to be fair, the already limited budget (and recent trout deal) are obviously a hurdle. Not to mention burnett and ddlr are 'supposed' to be back of the bullpen pieces.

[tomsred]

I don't agree with the position that there is no urgency on this team, or among the coaches.  I think they look tighter than a drum at the moment, and there is no way to relieve that symptom other than to have these players find their level and comfort zone.  Reality may be that this is a poorly constructed team, too many veteran players, and far too little effective pitching.  One could replace the entire managerial/coaching staff, and while that might be okay or the right decision for the long haul, in the interim that would guarantee disaster.  No one in the right mind should draw conclusions based on Spring Training or one series into the season, neither are representative.  You also can't go back over and over the last three or four years, and even say that has that much relevance.  Success or failure in each individual year has a whole variety of reasons, from poor team construction, to poor player development, poor coaching, to players under/over performing, etc..  Each year is different as to what went right, and what went wrong.  The reasons for failure are complex.

 

In the first 60 days of almost any season, for almost any team, this is what you brought to the table player and coaching wise.  You have to let it play out, you need 50-60 games to see what you have, and where the weaknesses are to be found.  I believe the only changes that we will see will be movement between the current 25 players, and the next tier of 8-12 players in the lower levels of this organization.  There is no way to trade out of this situation, every other team is doing the same evaluation.  Trying to change a manager or coaches right now isn't smart at all, everyone worth anything is currently committed.

 

In many ways baseball is a game of patience, and detailed examination of alternative strategies.  Baseball organizations are complex businesses.  There are many different types of personalities involved.  Generally, fans have very little patience, try to simplify everything, and get upset over lots of trivial issues many of which are based on second hand knowledge, or their own prejudices.

[dimitrig]

Since people bring up spring so much, a lot of the spring games were won by our minor leaguers late in games. The starters looked very weak all spring outside of a few. But we had a lot of come from behind wins late in games with our minor leaguers which made our spring record look good.

 

I hope that means there is some talent in the minors, because there is very little in the majors.

[tomsred]

I dont think theres a motivation problem. I doubt theres a 'so what' attitude thats making them suck. Im sure just about every guy on this team or any other has deep pride and wants to win. And I doubt there was any sort of 'lax routine' going on this week that has led to this start.

I think they just got owned by great pitching, and burned by an ineffective crop of RP's. Weaver ive said for a while isnt the same guy, but will still be good. CJ got lit up, but I dont think it will be a trend. Santiago did pretty well.

Once the bats get going we should see some better results. And yes, the bats have to get going (and I can see some problems, like pujols' and hamilton's approach).

Im as mad as all of you, but for now im not blaming the coaches (yet). As vocal as ive been about replacing sosh and butcher, they arent grooving fastballs and trying to pull sliders away. Right now the blame is on the 25 guys on the roster.

Dipoto is obviously on the hot seat. But to be fair, the already limited budget (and recent trout deal) are obviously a hurdle. Not to mention burnett and ddlr are 'supposed' to be back of the bullpen pieces.

 

By the way, I'm not "mad" about the start.  For three games the Mariners played above their average level.  I can say with 95% certainty that they are not this good.  I can also say with 95% certainty that the Angels are not this bad.  You couple that level of over achievement, with the Angels level of under achievement  this is what you get, 3-0 for one team and 0-3 for the other.  I am disappointed that we underachieved.  Can it be corrected?  Well there is lots of room for improvement, how much improvement is the mystery.

 

I won't say that we should turn the page, what's more relevant is that we make note of what needs to be improved in player performance, and get on with trying to fix it.  If the coaches and GM can't assist in doing it, then the noose gets tighter around their neck.  The only one who can kick away the stool  is the owner.

[Mark68]

I don't agree with the position that there is no urgency on this team, or among the coaches.  I think they look tighter than a drum at the moment, and there is no way to relieve that symptom other than to have these players find their level and comfort zone.  Reality may be that this is a poorly constructed team, too many veteran players, and far too little effective pitching.  One could replace the entire managerial/coaching staff, and while that might be okay or the right decision for the long haul, in the interim that would guarantee disaster.  No one in the right mind should draw conclusions based on Spring Training or one series into the season, neither are representative.  You also can't go back over and over the last three or four years, and even say that has that much relevance.  Success or failure in each individual year has a whole variety of reasons, from poor team construction, to poor player development, poor coaching, to players under/over performing, etc..  Each year is different as to what went right, and what went wrong.  The reasons for failure are complex.

 

In the first 60 days of almost any season, for almost any team, this is what you brought to the table player and coaching wise.  You have to let it play out, you need 50-60 games to see what you have, and where the weaknesses are to be found.  I believe the only changes that we will see will be movement between the current 25 players, and the next tier of 8-12 players in the lower levels of this organization.  There is no way to trade out of this situation, every other team is doing the same evaluation.  Trying to change a manager or coaches right now isn't smart at all, everyone worth anything is currently committed.

 

In many ways baseball is a game of patience, and detailed examination of alternative strategies.  Baseball organizations are complex businesses.  There are many different types of personalities involved.  Generally, fans have very little patience, try to simplify everything, and get upset over lots of trivial issues many of which are based on second hand knowledge, or their own prejudices.

How do you know that replacing the manager/coaches would guarantee disaster in the interim? Even if it is a disaster in the interim, if it's the right decision in the long haul, doesn't that make it a good decision? After all, aren't things pretty disastrous now?

 

As for each individual year being counted separately, there is one constant over these last few years of slow starts and being buried early...and I don't think I really need to point out what that constant is.