Official 2022-23 Offseason Hot Stove Thread

[jsnpritchett]

24 minutes ago, Tank said:

$350 mil plus the luxury tax for the mets.

 

go big or go home.

The funny thing is, I'm not sure they're really much better (if at all) than they were last year even after all these signings.  Two of the big deals were for Nimmo and Diaz, who they obviously already had in '22.  Verlander replacing deGrom is probably a toss-up for '23, assuming both are healthy, right?  I'd personally take Verlander for '23, but could definitely go either way.  Senga replaces Bassitt.  Who knows there?  Again, could go either way.  I guess Senga might have more theoretical upside, but Bassitt is maybe the safer bet.  And then Jose Quintana replaces...David Peterson, I guess?  Not a huge upgrade.

It actually wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves won the division.

EDIT: Forgot that signed David Robertson, too.  He'll essentially be replacing Adam Ottavino.  That's yet another tradeoff that will likely be a marginal gain at best.  BRef projections for next season has them producing almost identical stats.

Edited December 11, 2022 by jsnpritchett

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 12/8/2022 at 8:06 PM, Angels 1961 said:

Free agency bleak next year so buy now.

I heard there is a freak of nature SP/DH available next year

[Angels 1961]

3 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

I heard there is a freak of nature SP/DH available next year

 He is signing with team he is on. 

[Warfarin]

35 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

The funny thing is, I'm not sure they're really much better (if at all) than they were last year even after all these signings.  Two of the big deals were for Nimmo and Diaz, who they obviously already had in '22.  Verlander replacing deGrom is probably a toss-up for '23, assuming both are healthy, right?  I'd personally take Verlander for '23, but could definitely go either way.  Senga replaces Bassitt.  Who knows there?  Again, could go either way.  I guess Senga might have more theoretical upside, but Bassitt is maybe the safer bet.  And then Jose Quintana replaces...David Peterson, I guess?  Not a huge upgrade.

It actually wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves won the division.

EDIT: Forgot that signed David Robertson, too.  He'll essentially be replacing Adam Ottavino.  That's yet another tradeoff that will likely be a marginal gain at best.  BRef projections for next season has them producing almost identical stats.

Yeah.  They have spent a bunch of money to essentially move laterally, although to be fair, the alternative was to not spend anything and get significantly worse.  They had to either re-sign deGrom or replace him, which they did, and so on.

It's just interesting that they have a 350mil payroll and basically are roughly the same team they were last year.  But given that team won 101 games, that's a solid strategy.  I'm guessing Cohen does not really care about paying luxury tax, so even if this team is carrying a monstrous payroll, he may well just be the Steinbrenner of this generation - operating significantly above the payroll of the rest of the league.

[jsnpritchett]

21 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah.  They have spent a bunch of money to essentially move laterally, although to be fair, the alternative was to not spend anything and get significantly worse.  They had to either re-sign deGrom or replace him, which they did, and so on.

It's just interesting that they have a 350mil payroll and basically are roughly the same team they were last year.  But given that team won 101 games, that's a solid strategy.  I'm guessing Cohen does not really care about paying luxury tax, so even if this team is carrying a monstrous payroll, he may well just be the Steinbrenner of this generation.

Oh, yeah, I'm not saying any of their moves have been dumb or anything, given the (non-...) budget they're dealing with.  It's just funny that they haven't really improved.  Also, it's highly unlikely their offense will be any better next year (it was very good this year), as no one (other than maybe McCann??) had a down offensive season.  I would LOL if the Braves AND Phillies finished ahead of them next year.

[Warfarin]

21 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Oh, yeah, I'm not saying any of their moves have been dumb or anything, given the (non-...) budget they're dealing with.  It's just funny that they haven't really improved.  Also, it's highly unlikely their offense will be any better next year (it was very good this year), as no one (other than maybe McCann??) had a down offensive season.  I would LOL if the Braves AND Phillies finished ahead of them next year.

I agree.  I think the Braves are considerably better run than the Mets - I think Anthopolous is probably the second best GM in this game, and it would not surprise me to see him eke out ahead of the Mets again despite probably half the payroll.

Not closely related, but the Braves seem to be magnificent when it comes to developing their prospects and having them become better MLB players than expected.  Take a look at a few graduates this year - Strider, Harris, Grissom.  These guys either didn't play in AAA or barely played and were basically promoted directly from AA.  They all rated rather decently as prospects but have played beyond their expectations.  There is something that the Braves have been doing that helps their prospects perform even better than their MILB track records and become really good MLB players.  I cannot help but notice the parallel to how Minasian has been promoting some players aggressively from AA (Silseth, Soto, O'Hoppe, and on lesser notes, Whitefield, Aguilar, etc).  Looking at the Braves' operations, and how they are able to make these pretty decent prospects into excellent MLB players, is what gives me hope for our future.  We can only hope Minasian has created the same system of player development here.

EDIT - if you look at Soto's MILB breakdowns by month, he had a really stellar July and August, in terms of plate discipline and some pop, which is likely what led to his promotion.  Again, maybe it was just a fluke, but he's rather young and, perhaps, our player development team helped him "unlock" something that was not previously there.  I'm not saying he is the offensive player he showed while he was here, because 0.500 BABIP and whatnot, but it is rather possible he could be a better offensive perform than his overall MILB stats indicate.

[Inside Pitch]

41 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Oh, yeah, I'm not saying any of their moves have been dumb or anything, given the (non-...) budget they're dealing with.  It's just funny that they haven't really improved. 

The hilarious, maybe tragic part of this offseason is that it may be the best, most well rounded attempt to add to the roster since the 2003 offseason.  I do believe they have improved, but how much really depends on a lot of the guys they already had rebounding.

Corner OF depth is garbage and if Mickey Moniak has to step in for Trout in CF for any length of time the offense from that position will blow too.

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

The hilarious, maybe tragic part of this offseason is that it may be the best, most well rounded attempt to add to the roster since the 2003 offseason.  I do believe they have improved, but how much really depends on a lot of the guys they already had rebounding.

Corner OF depth is garbage and if Mickey Moniak has to step in for Trout in CF for any length of time the offense from that position will blow too.

I was talking about the Mets in my post! 

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I was talking about the Mets in my post! 

And yet it all applies to the Angels too...

Met's pitching got better IMO.  

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

And yet it all applies to the Angels too...

Met's pitching got better IMO.  

It's possible, as I alluded to in an earlier post--but I don't think it's clear-cut.  Their staff is a bit deeper, maybe has a little more upside than '22--but I think it's entirely possible that the guys they brought in don't outproduce the guys they're replacing.  And, as I also mentioned, I think there's a very real chance their offense isn't as good in '23 as it was in '22.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

The hilarious, maybe tragic part of this offseason is that it may be the best, most well rounded attempt to add to the roster since the 2003 offseason.  I do believe they have improved, but how much really depends on a lot of the guys they already had rebounding.

Corner OF depth is garbage and if Mickey Moniak has to step in for Trout in CF for any length of time the offense from that position will blow too.

It's true. I really like Moniak as a 4th outfielder, if you have three good starters and an intensive weapon waiting in AAA. And yeah, Minasian has done solid work this offseason, but no matter what he does, the Angels don't win unless Trout and Rendon play a full season and Rendon performs like an MVP candidate again. 

It's why I wasn't in favor of this approach in the first place. Shitty as it is, given the timing of the sale, but the best thing for the organization would've been to try to rebuild. And that might still be the case. If they're out of it come the trade deadline, they might sell Ohtani, Urshela, Renfroe, and if they go extreme, talk to Trout about of he wants out. 

It hurts to even conceptualize it, but if teams are throwing around that kind of money for Judge and Bogaerts in their 30's, suddenly Trout's deal seems pretty reasonable. 

[mmc]

 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

It actually wouldn't surprise me at all if the Braves won the division.

I'll pass it along if I hear anything from the other owners.

[Warfarin]

6 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

Appears to be possibility?  That isn’t even a rumor, just random postulating.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Warfarin said:

Appears to be possibility?  That isn’t even a rumor, just random postulating.

Maybe.

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Appears to be possibility?  That isn’t even a rumor, just random postulating.

That's why Jon Heyman sucks.

[BTH]

31 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Appears to be possibility?  That isn’t even a rumor, just random postulating.

“Braves remain stealthy or quiet”

That’s such a nothing burger.

[Angels 1961]

Angels getting Correa

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Angels getting Correa

Oh yea? 

[Warfarin]

27 minutes ago, Trendon said:

“Braves remain stealthy or quiet”

That’s such a nothing burger.

Yeah.  I guess everyone's style and preference is different.  Passan is my favorite, because he literally only Tweets an actual consummated deal (per his sources).  Rosenthal is a close second.  Those are basically just the two that I follow.  I don't doubt that Heyman is well-connected, but he spitballs so much random crap, and has been wrong on numerous occasions (most notably, "Arson Judge") .. but man, I'm just not a fan of his style of reporting.

[Angel Oracle]

16 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Angels getting Correa

The only thing that makes that in any way appealing is that he finally stayed healthy enough for two straight seasons (284 games), after usually missing some significant time in his first 5 seasons (only once playing over 110 games).

If he doesn’t sign by early January, I wonder if he signs another big money, low years contract with 1 or 2 opt outs like he did with the Twins?   Say 3 years/$120 million?

Still only 28 for most of 2023 season 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The only thing that makes that in any way appealing is that he finally stayed healthy enough for two straight seasons (284 games), after usually missing some significant time in his first 5 seasons (only once playing over 110 games).

If he doesn’t sign by early January, I wonder if he signs another big money, low years contract with 1 or 2 opt outs like he did with the Twins?   Say 3 years/$120 million?

Still only 28 for most of 2023 season 

Given there are multiple teams still looking for a SS, I think Correa will have more success this year in terms of finding the long-term deal he wants.  Giants, Yankees, maybe even Red Sox / Cubs .. there are multiple teams that have a lot of money that can sign him.  I still think he is a Giant by the end of the offseason.

[Pancake Bear]

Correa won't be signing a short term deal. 

[ukyah]

i think the angels are going to miss out on the big SS. the bogarts deal probably has a big impact on some of the angels behind the scenes mechanations. i just don't see us landing correa or swanson anymore. i do think it's likely they make a trade for a SS now, but i think what i said above affects that too. i think we make a trade that stings a bit to read for our return.

i said in another thread, if the above is remotely true, that i'd like to see wil myers brought in, or lesser brian anderson or edwin rios.

[Pancake Bear]

6 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i think the angels are going to miss out on the big SS. the bogarts deal probably has a big impact on some of the angels behind the scenes mechanations. i just don't see us landing correa or swanson anymore. i do think it's likely they make a trade for a SS now, but i think what i said above affects that too. i think we make a trade that stings a bit to read for our return.

i said in another thread, if the above is remotely true, that i'd like to see wil myers brought in, or lesser brian anderson or edwin rios.

I've said for a while that they should go all in on a shortstop. It makes way too much sense for the Angels current situation. But you have to be willing to spend money, and I doubt they go quite that high, plus there's other teams in need of a shortstop, so I don't see it happening. 

My guess is they'll either go cheap on a middle infielder free agent or surprise us with an off the radar trade. I'll be surprised if they stand pat. So far, Minasian has done pretty well with floor-raising depth moves. We have potentially high end players, so what we've needed for a while is to be slightly less top heavy and he's mostly accomplished that to the degree the budget allowed.