Would you trade Adell in a deal for Bryan Reynolds?

[mmc]

Was reading about how the Marlins still have a lot of interest in Reynolds and it had me thinking about the idea of us making this type of deal.  Basically the idea is that Reynolds fits our window a lot better than Adell does (and the reverse applies to the Pirates).  Seems like most of the talk of a potential Adell trade is for pitchers but I think this might be one of the safer ways to go.  Reynolds is controllable until 2026.  It would give us another star to try to make a run with the team we have now.  Even if Ohtani leaves and we accept a bit of a rebuild we should be able to move him for a haul if we so choose

[floplag]

Its an interesting idea, ive thought about non pitching options myself but i think if we were to entertain such ideas it should be for a position we lack, such as a controllable young stud C. 

Its not likely of course you pry Rutchman out of Balitmore but i think i would prefer a spot we have a real need at long term if you go non pitcher.

If you need a short terms solution in the OF on the interim see how Ohtani feels about Suzuki. 

This org shouldnt be thinking about rebuild options, if it is then were already screwed. 

[Angelsjunky]

And why exactly would the Pirates make this trade? They'd be trading away an established star who is still only 27 for a potential star who is 23 (2022 ages) and has yet to put up better than replacement level performance...for one extra year of club control?

Reynolds is a good example as to why FV doesn't mean that much. He was a 45 FV prospect, which means he was projected to be a below average regular. Last year he had 5.5 WAR and 142 wRC+, both of which put him around 10th-11th in the majors. Given his rookie season in 2019 (130, 3.2) and age, there's no reason to think his 2021 performance isn't sustainable for the next half decade or so.

Or to put it another way, Reynolds' 2022 performance is about the best we can hope for from Adell. He'd do in a sexier way (with 40 HR, maybe), but while it is possible, it is unlikely that he'll be better than 5.5, and there's no guarantee he'll ever put up a 5 WAR season.

If I'm the Pirates, I'm not trading Reynolds for Adell. And the trade simulator seems to agree with me: they value Reynolds at 85, Adell at 19. I personally think they undervalue Adell (they have Marsh at 47.3), but even if we double Adell's value, they still need to throw in a huge package to acquire Reynolds - at least Detmers.

So a more reasonable question would be: Would you trade Adell (or Marsh) and Detmers for Reynolds?

[Blarg]

Maybe

[Blarg]

Oh, wait. You mean the guy from the Pirates. Naw. 

[mmc]

9 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

And why exactly would the Pirates make this trade? They'd be trading away an established star who is still only 27 for a potential star who is 23 (2022 ages) and has yet to put up better than replacement level performance...for one extra year of club control?

Reynolds is a good example as to why FV doesn't mean that much. He was a 45 FV prospect, which means he was projected to be a below average regular. Last year he had 5.5 WAR and 142 wRC+, both of which put him around 10th-11th in the majors. Given his rookie season in 2019 (130, 3.2) and age, there's no reason to think his 2021 performance isn't sustainable for the next half decade or so.

Or to put it another way, Reynolds' 2022 performance is about the best we can hope for from Adell. He'd do in a sexier way (with 40 HR, maybe), but while it is possible, it is unlikely that he'll be better than 5.5, and there's no guarantee he'll ever put up a 5 WAR season.

If I'm the Pirates, I'm not trading Reynolds for Adell. And the trade simulator seems to agree with me: they value Reynolds at 85, Adell at 19. I personally think they undervalue Adell (they have Marsh at 47.3), but even if we double Adell's value, they still need to throw in a huge package to acquire Reynolds - at least Detmers.

So a more reasonable question would be: Would you trade Adell (or Marsh) and Detmers for Reynolds?

It wouldn't be straight up but if they'd accept Adell as the main piece there's not many other ways they could fill out the package that I would object to

[Jason]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

And why exactly would the Pirates make this trade?

To make AW posters happy. 

[Adam]

I would do anything I could to move Adell

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Adam said:

I would do anything I could to move Adell

I think talking to him about his dad could move him.

[eligrba]

2 hours ago, mmc said:

Even if Ohtani leaves

That would be an epic failure forever remembered in the MLB world.

[Jason]

52 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think talking to him about his dad could move him.

I'm not certain but this may be racist 

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Jason said:

I'm not certain but this may be racist 

I'm cals' 4th account.

[Jason]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

I'm cals' 4th account.

That would be awesome and confirm his personality disorder 

[BTH]

Yes, easily.

But the Pirates wouldn't, which is what matters.

[Dtwncbad]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Adell at 19. I personally think they undervalue Adell (they have Marsh at 47.3),

Seems insane that they value Marsh as more than twice as valuable than Adell.

That’s just nuts.

[tdawg87]

The trade simulator is fucking stupid.

[ScottT]

Yes

[HanfordGuy]

15 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Reynolds is a good example as to why FV doesn't mean that much.

[Angelsjunky]

9 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

The trade simulator is fucking stupid.

Except for the fact that it is generally pretty accurate, most of the time.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Except for the fact that it is generally pretty accurate, most of the time.

I was just going to say this. 

[Dtwncbad]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Except for the fact that it is generally pretty accurate, most of the time.

I view the values in there like I view property values on Zillow.  Generally speaking some valid information, but I often find individual properties that are just way off. 

[tdawg87]

20 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Except for the fact that it is generally pretty accurate, most of the time.

That's nice.

It's still fucking stupid. If a GM even thinks about that thing then they should be fired into the sun.

It's a tool for fans to play around with. 

[Inside Pitch]

On 1/28/2022 at 8:29 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Except for the fact that it is generally pretty accurate, most of the time.

If only all WAR cost the same...   

40 WAR at 6 years of control .vs 40 WAR with two years of control means you're paying more for those two years and stand to pay more to retain the value beyond that time.

Yes, a team is getting the surer thing, but there is a cost in real dollars beyond the players involved.

[Dtwncbad]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

That's nice.

It's still fucking stupid. If a GM even thinks about that thing then they should be fired into the sun.

It's a tool for fans to play around with. 

Were you actually thinking anyone thought it would be a tool for a GM?

Really??

[tdawg87]

36 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Were you actually thinking anyone thought it would be a tool for a GM?

Really??

No.