Free agent pitchers you want the team to avoid this offseason?

[mmc]

In contrast to the many threads created by myself and other people asking which starters you want to see the team pursue, which free agent pitchers do you want the team to avoid pursuing and offering market value (or above).  Meaning don’t just say x player unless he takes a massive discount.

You can list either the higher tiers of players who you think will ultimately sign a contract they won’t live up to, or a bargain bin, reclamation project who you think is completely cooked.

For me, I’d avoid Verlander as I think he gets a lucrative one year deal, and seeing as we don’t have a good history in this regard I don’t want to even bother with the chance we end up blowing a large chunk if not the majority of our offseasons budget on a guy who could be the next Matt Harvey.  I also am not confident in Ray long term to give him what could end up being a 9 figure contract, or close to it

[jsnpritchett]

Ray, because I'm always highly suspicious of magical one-year turnarounds in things like walk-rate or K-rate (his Ks have always been high, obviously--but his BB rate was so far below his career rates, that I'd be leery of giving him $100M+).

Gausman.  I worry that he'll be Bundy 2.0 (or maybe 3.0, if Cobb beats him to being 2.0...). 

I'm less concerned about a deal for Scherzer, Verlander, or even Kershaw, since those deals will probably be for much shorter periods of time, so they won't hamstring the Angels for years to come if they don't work out.

[BTH]

Carlos Rodón, for sure. I don't trust his velo spike. I don't trust his career season. I don't trust his health.

[Erstad Grit]

Greinke, Kershaw, Rodón, and Kimbrel. 

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Ray, because I'm always highly suspicious of magical one-year turnarounds in things like walk-rate or K-rate (his Ks have always been high, obviously--but his BB rate was so far below his career rates, that I'd be leery of giving him $100M+).

Gausman.  I worry that he'll be Bundy 2.0 (or maybe 3.0, if Cobb beats him to being 2.0...). 

I'm less concerned about a deal for Scherzer, Verlander, or even Kershaw, since those deals will probably be for much shorter periods of time, so they won't hamstring the Angels for years to come if they don't work out.

Ha! I want Ray and Gausman. 

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Ha! I want Ray and Gausman. 

I mean, if they keep performing like this year, sure.  I personally just don't like risking $100-150M+ in the hopes that someone can replicate their best season for 5 or 6 more seasons.  You're paying them to perform like an "ace" (whatever that even means these days), but there's at least a reasonable chance you're gonna get a guy with a 4.00+ ERA

[zenmaster]

I'd probably avoid Bauer.

[ukyah]

it's funny because verlander would be one of my top targets.

[Docwaukee]

I see bear traps just about everywhere in this years market.  Especially at the top.  

[wopphil]

Every player has their flaws. Even Scherzer has age working against him. That said, I wouldn’t go anywhere near Verlander unless it was a highly incentivized deal (which I doubt he will take). Ray will cost a fortune since he will win the Cy Young award this year, and I don’t think we want another lefty in the rotation. Gausman was very average the last few months. And Kershaw is a huge health risk. I’d stay away from all of these guys except Gausman, but the price on Gausman would have to be right. 

[Dtwncbad]

8 hours ago, zenmaster said:

I'd probably avoid Bauer.

Yeah I just have a feeling he could be a choker.

[Dtwncbad]

Top three to avoid would be Quintana, Heaney, and Bundy.

[WicketMaiden]

Verlander. Partly because of his age and injury profile, but mostly because I just don't like him and don't want to be put in the position of trying to root for him.

[Blarg]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I see bear traps just about everywhere in this years market.  Especially at the top.  

Yup. All of the "name" pitchers have too many miles on their arms, Geinke is Weaver in his last couple seasons, Scherzer is over worked, Kershaw looks to be fading and Verlander is still rehabbing elbow surgery so it's not like he is giving anyone a full season. 

It's the best free agent class of five years ago. Now, buyer beware. 

[angelsnationtalk]

Some might not like this, but.....

Scherzer (will be 37 on Opening Day)
Verlander (will be 39 on Opening Day)
Kershaw ( will be 34 on Opening Day and wearing a back brace and worrisome elbow)
Greinke (will be 38 on Opening Day)
that's who I'd stay away from.

Maybe you can grab Scherzer for a 1 or 2 year deal, but it gets risky as hell.

Angels could have more financial flexibility if they look at Ray, Syndergaard, Rodon, Gausman. They could theoretically sign 2 of these players.

Or they get Scherzer for less AAV but more years....

[Jason]

30 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Yup. All of the "name" pitchers have too many miles on their arms, Geinke is Weaver in his last couple seasons, Scherzer is over worked, Kershaw looks to be fading and Verlander is still rehabbing elbow surgery so it's not like he is giving anyone a full season. 

It's the best free agent class of five years ago. Now, buyer beware. 

This is a perfect example on why the Halos will never have the pitching success needed unless they can draft and develop their own top tier talent 

[AngelsFaninGA]

Syndergaard. Injury concerns plus he's likely a 4+ ERA pitcher even when healthy

[Angels 1961]

50 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Some might not like this, but.....

Scherzer (will be 37 on Opening Day)
Verlander (will be 39 on Opening Day)
Kershaw ( will be 34 on Opening Day and wearing a back brace and worrisome elbow)
Greinke (will be 38 on Opening Day)
that's who I'd stay away from.

Maybe you can grab Scherzer for a 1 or 2 year deal, but it gets risky as hell.

Angels could have more financial flexibility if they look at Ray, Syndergaard, Rodon, Gausman. They could theoretically sign 2 of these players.

Or they get Scherzer for less AAV but more years....

I also stay away from Scherzer because of price and age. 

[Angel Dog and Beer]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yeah I just have a feeling he could be a cooter puncher.

He very well could be. 

[Docwaukee]

I'm hoping that there is a guy or two who over estimates their value and takes a 1yr pillow.  The problem is that we won't usually know that till the end of the free agent period.  I'd certainly avoid anyone who wants more than 4 years.  While the older guys all have their nits, I would be a lot more comfortable with 1-2 year deals at this point.  

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'm hoping that there is a guy or two who over estimates their value and takes a 1yr pillow.  The problem is that we won't usually know that till the end of the free agent period.  I'd certainly avoid anyone who wants more than 4 years.  While the older guys all have their nits, I would be a lot more comfortable with 1-2 year deals at this point.  

I think plucking one guy from the Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, Danny Duffy, Johnny Cueto, Zach Davies group, or even lesser guys like Michael Lorenzen (who I really like as a Swiss Army knife type), Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez are good buy-low options to consider too. 

In many ways, should they hold onto most of their internal guys and not make any big trades, I'd rather take it a little more conservatively, sign one of the bigger arms (but maybe not the biggest, instead someone like Stroman, Rodriguez), sign one of these lesser names, re-up Iglesias, sign another solid reliever and maybe add a versatile bat/shortstop and see how things go with a healthy club. 

[Torridd]

18 hours ago, mmc said:

In contrast to the many threads created by myself and other people asking which starters you want to see the team pursue, which free agent pitchers do you want the team to avoid pursuing and offering market value (or above).  Meaning don’t just say x player unless he takes a massive discount.

You can list either the higher tiers of players who you think will ultimately sign a contract they won’t live up to, or a bargain bin, reclamation project who you think is completely cooked.

For me, I’d avoid Verlander as I think he gets a lucrative one year deal, and seeing as we don’t have a good history in this regard I don’t want to even bother with the chance we end up blowing a large chunk if not the majority of our offseasons budget on a guy who could be the next Matt Harvey.  I also am not confident in Ray long term to give him what could end up being a 9 figure contract, or close to it

I agree. I think we should stay away from Verlander.

[Tank]

i would steer clear of heaney and cobb. i've had enough of their wild inconsistency while they've been here.

[Dtwncbad]

Angels need to sign one of the top 3-4 free agent starters, AND package a group of prospects to also land a controllable #2 type.

That is a viable plan.  The team has the money for the signing and the bodies to make the deal.

I suggest they make the trade first to help attract the premium free agent starter.

Can we just execute a plan that gets the team what it clearly needs?  Too much to ask?

[Rollinghard]

Scherzer (will be 37 on Opening Day)
Verlander (will be 39 on Opening Day)
Kershaw ( will be 34 on Opening Day and wearing a back brace and worrisome elbow)
Greinke (will be 38 on Opening Day)

 

These guys are bulldogs. When was the last time the Angels had a 37 year old No. 1 SP? Been awhile. When was the last time Angels had Bulldog SP, period?  We get the crafty nibblers. Besides Ohtani. And he is very good but I don't consider him great yet. Sample size is too small.