Why I still believe in this team

[tdawg87]

If I tag Inside Pitch here does that make me an accessory?

[Revad]

A win today would cheer me up and brighten the future.

[Jay]

22 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They were on a pace for 90 wins 3 days ago. 
 

They’re 9-10.

Will the real Angels please stand up?

[tdawg87]

Did Claude sneak in here 

[Angel Oracle]

19 minutes ago, Jason said:

Any updates on the injured guys?

Trout and Rendon go without saying.

Why haven’t they activated Pena, when he said he was ready almost a week ago?   This bullpen is a flustercuck, and desperately needs some stability.

Lagares’ defense late in games is missed.

Stassi is the one they may be missing the most?    Suzuki isn’t making it behind the plate or at the plate, and is very mediocre on pitch framing.

 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Did Claude sneak in here 

He just keeps repeating himself looking for attention.

[HeavenlyHalos]

The defense has been the most surprising aspect so far this season. I think most expected the bullpen to be below-average and Maddon to be a source of frustration managing it but I thought the defense would be one of the best in the league and its been absolutely horrible so far.

[Jason]

9 minutes ago, HeavenlyHalos said:

The defense has been the most surprising aspect so far this season. I think most expected the bullpen to be below-average and Maddon to be a source of frustration managing it but I thought the defense would be one of the best in the league and its been absolutely horrible so far.

I didn’t expect Maddon to be so terrible with bullpen management 

[fan_since79]

After 42 years as a fan I still believe in this team, but my faith at this point has weakened a bit. At least there's Trout. 

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Jason said:

All this could be true but the fact is they are in hole looking up at three teams in the AL West. Do you think they have the talent and ability to climb out of that hole? Maybe they are a great team and can do this. I may be way off on this but I haven’t seen enough to get my confidence up with them. 

They have 143 games to play still.   

Things that scream absolute regression towards the positive...

Babip allowed -- .329    The next highest team is sitting at .310, the MLB average is sitting near .280 currently.   This is unbelievably bad luck.
LOB% -- 62.5%   24 of the 30 MLB teams are over 70% -- MLB average is sitting around 73%.   This number is likely tied in to the Babip -- when you're giving out fluke hits it's bad, when you are giving up fluke hits with men on base it can be disastrous.

This team is 9-10 despite...

6th best hitter fWAR in MLB, while missing Stassi, and Rendon for more than half their games
11th best SP fWAR in MLB despite blisters and Canning absolutely sucking ass.   This is an area that could be fixed by simply sending him down and skipping his starts or trying someone else in his spot.
The RP took it in the shorts yesterday but even those schleps have a positive fWAR as a group.

The defense is is where it gets a bit wonky, the defensive metrics early on are sending mixed messages -- 5th worst DRS in MLB, but their Def rating and UZR are pretty much league average.   Getting Rendon and Stassi back will likely help defensively but if there is a legit weakness it's defensively.

I'd argue the eye test says the defense has been bad and the metrics are a mixed bag simply due to sample size.

Not that my opinion carries anymore weight than anyone else but I wasn't one of the people calling this team a playoff team the previous three years, and while I try to remain positive I don't go the homer route .  So that said this is still the least worried 'Ive been about the team in a long time.  Canning shouldn't be given another start until he shows he's fixed whatever it is that's lead to the long ball issues he's having.   As @Blarghas pointed out he tends to get ahead then lose counts -- not sure if its him or whoever is working on his pitch selection and game-plan but it's not working.

As far as the hole they are in and the three teams ahead of them...

Hitters fWAR
HOU: 4.4 (2nd)
LAA:  3.7 (6th)
OAK:  3.4 (7th)
SEA:  2.1 (18th)

Pitchers fWAR
LAA:  1.7 (11th)
OAK:  1.6 (12th)
SEA:  1.2 (21st)
HOU:  1.1 (23rd)

Def -FG stat
HOU:  2.1 (10th)
LAA:  0.1 (14th)
OAK:  -0.9 (17th)
SEA:  -2.0 (20th)

143 games to play..  With a lot of smoke, mirrors, good luck, bad luck, and weird stuff happening in the division.

 

 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Trout and Rendon go without saying.

Why haven’t they activated Pena, when he said he was ready almost a week ago?   This bullpen is a flustercuck, and desperately needs some stability.

Lagares’ defense late in games is missed.

Stassi is the one they may be missing the most?    Suzuki isn’t making it behind the plate or at the plate, and is very mediocre on pitch framing.

 

With Canning being a mess it seems like a perfect time to send Canning somewhere to work on issues and maybe add Pena to the pen.  It's not like they haven't been skipping people's starts left and right and have had guys pitching out of order.   

[tdawg87]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They have 143 games to play still.   

Things that scream absolute regression towards the positive...

Babip allowed -- .329    The next highest team is sitting at .310, the MLB average is sitting near .280 currently.   This is unbelievably bad luck.
LOB% -- 62.5%   24 of the 30 MLB teams are over 70% -- MLB average is sitting around 73%.   This number is likely tied in to the Babip -- when you're giving out fluke hits it's bad, when you are giving up fluke hits with men on base it can be disastrous.

This team is 9-10 despite...

6th best hitter fWAR in MLB, while missing Stassi, and Rendon for more than half their games
11th best SP fWAR in MLB despite blisters and Canning absolutely sucking ass.   This is an area that could be fixed by simply sending him down and skipping his starts or trying someone else in his spot.
The RP took it in the shorts yesterday but even those schleps have a positive fWAR as a group.

The defense is is where it gets a bit wonky, the defensive metrics early on are sending mixed messages -- 5th worst DRS in MLB, but their Def rating and UZR are pretty much league average.   Getting Rendon and Stassi back will likely help defensively but if there is a legit weakness it's defensively.

I'd argue the eye test says the defense has been bad and the metrics are a mixed bag simply due to sample size.

Not that my opinion carries anymore weight than anyone else but I wasn't one of the people calling this team a playoff team the previous three years, and while I try to remain positive I don't go the homer route .  So that said this is still the least worried 'Ive been about the team in a long time.  Canning shouldn't be given another start until he shows he's fixed whatever it is that's lead to the long ball issues he's having.   As @Blarghas pointed out he tends to get ahead then lose counts -- not sure if its him or whoever is working on his pitch selection and game-plan but it's not working.

As far as the hole they are in and the three teams ahead of them...

Hitters fWAR
HOU: 4.4 (2nd)
LAA:  3.7 (6th)
OAK:  3.4 (7th)
SEA:  2.1 (18th)

Pitchers fWAR
LAA:  1.7 (11th)
OAK:  1.6 (12th)
SEA:  1.2 (21st)
HOU:  1.1 (23rd)

Def -FG stat
HOU:  2.1 (10th)
LAA:  0.1 (14th)
OAK:  -0.9 (17th)
SEA:  -2.0 (20th)

143 games to play..  With a lot of smoke, mirrors, good luck, bad luck, and weird stuff happening in the division.

 

 

[stormngt]

I believe our elimination number is 139 

Time to panic!

[eligrba]

13 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

With Canning being a mess it seems like a perfect time to send Canning somewhere to work on issues and maybe add Pena to the pen.  It's not like they haven't been skipping people's starts left and right and have had guys pitching out of order.   

Where will Canning learn to locate his pitches? If such a place exists,  Arte needs to buy it, just like the stadium. 

[eligrba]

8 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I believe our elimination number is 139 

Time to panic!

The Donner party didn’t panic at the first sign of snow, you make a good point.

[ten ocho recon scout]

im surprised anyone Swiss is an Angel fan. Or a fan of any team. I thought they couldnt choose sides?

[Inside Pitch]

41 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Where will Canning learn to locate his pitches? If such a place exists,  Arte needs to buy it, just like the stadium. 

Command control are considered veteran skills, like power is for hitters.

Canning is 24, turning 25 next month.  He's thrown fewer than 130 minor league innings above A ball.   Amazing enough this place called minor league baseball exists and as luck would have it, the season starts  on May 4th.

[HeavenlyHalos]

3 hours ago, Jason said:

I didn’t expect Maddon to be so terrible with bullpen management 

I have a buddy that's a huge Cubs fan that would complain about it so maybe that's why I expected it.

[eligrba]

20 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Command control are considered veteran skills, like power is for hitters.

Canning is 24, turning 25 next month.  He's thrown fewer than 130 minor league innings above A ball.   Amazing enough this place called minor league baseball exists and as luck would have it, the season starts  on May 4th.

Then explain why veteran pitchers on the Angels also have trouble locating pitches.

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Then explain why veteran pitchers on the Angels also have trouble locating pitches.

Do you want me to cut your meat for you too?   I'm assuming you're more than 5 years old and watch games, you should have an opinion as to why so what's your take?

There are a lot of reasons why pitchers struggle with command, can be any number of things or in some cases it's just a biproduct of their movement.  Suzuki's been awful behind the plate -- lots of extra movement even on strikes that have resulted in bad calls.  I don't really think that's been the issue but it's yet another factor.   New ball might be a factor but again, I'd say that's noise.  Quintana, Ohtani, and Canning have all had issues and none of them really seem to have any one common cause.

As far as Canning goes -- his command went to shit last year and it's  gotten worse IMO.  His walk rate is right where it was in his rookie year but his command really does seem worse.

[eligrba]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Do you want me to cut your meat for you too?   I'm assuming you're more than 5 years old and watch games, you should have an opinion as to why so what's your take?

There are a lot of reasons why pitchers struggle with command, can be any number of things or in some cases it's just a biproduct of their movement.  Suzuki's been awful behind the plate -- lots of extra movement even on strikes that have resulted in bad calls.  I don't really think that's been the issue but it's yet another factor.   New ball might be a factor but again, I'd say that's noise.  Quintana, Ohtani, and Canning have all had issues and none of them really seem to have any one common cause.

As far as Canning goes -- his command went to shit last year and it's  gotten worse IMO.  His walk rate is right where it was in his rookie year but his command really does seem worse.

It is probably my age but I learned that the fundamental goal of pitching was to disrupt the hitter’s timing. To do that well, a pitcher needs to have command of their pitches and the ability to change speeds from the same arm angle. I was taught to throw the same pitch at different speeds at specific locations.  At some point, I suspect someone looked at the rotational velocity of elite pitchers and surmised that spin rate is the key to successful pitching.

I don’t know why some pitchers are better at locating pitchers than others but it seems like a common ailment with the Angels.  I just don’t think any of them will get any better without being able to consistently locate their pitches.
 

If you would rather not have a discussion about the topic, I understand. If the tone of my response was not acceptable, I understand but it is was not my goal.

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, eligrba said:

It is probably my age but I learned that the fundamental goal of pitching was to disrupt the hitter’s timing. To do that well, a pitcher needs to have command of their pitches and the ability to change speeds from the same arm angle. I was taught to throw the same pitch at different speeds at specific locations.  At some point, I suspect someone looked at the rotational velocity of elite pitchers and surmised that spin rate is the key to successful pitching.

I don’t know why some pitchers are better at locating pitchers than others but it seems like a common ailment with the Angels.  I just don’t think any of them will get any better without being able to consistently locate their pitches.
 

If you would rather not have a discussion about the topic, I understand. If the tone of my response was not acceptable, I understand but it is was not my goal.

Nah -- no need for apologies or anything along those lines, I too can come across as curt when I'm not intending to be.  But my greater point was in Canning's case, he's probably not yet a finished product and that command is typically one of the last things to develop...  RJ was a pretty nondescript pitcher until his command caught up with his stuff.   

You're right about the hyperfocus on spin and that it may be creating issues for some guys.  Canning just seems to be reaching for shit, he's still tinkering with grips and pitches, remember this spring they were saying his slider was now his cutter or something like that...   I personally think the dude tinkers too much, tries to be too fine.

Agree with pitching being all about disrupting a hitter's timing.  

[eligrba]

20 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Nah -- no need for apologies or anything along those lines, I too can come across as curt when I'm not intending to be.  But my greater point was in Canning's case, he's probably not yet a finished product and that command is typically one of the last things to develop...  RJ was a pretty nondescript pitcher until his command caught up with his stuff.   

You're right about the hyperfocus on spin and that it may be creating issues for some guys.  Canning just seems to be reaching for shit, he's still tinkering with grips and pitches, remember this spring they were saying his slider was now his cutter or something like that...   I personally think the dude tinkers too much, tries to be too fine.

Agree with pitching being all about disrupting a hitter's timing.  

Had no idea Canning was experimenting.  Changes my view and outlook for him.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, eligrba said:

Had no idea Canning was experimenting.  Changes my view and outlook for him.

He's definitely been tinkering.

[Angels 1961]

Halo fans remember song by Journey, Don't Stop Believin never give up on your team.