Minasian and the rotation.

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, failos said:

Minasian and the Rotation

Sounds like the name of a band

I thought you used this joke already.  

[BTH]

One (smaller) issue between the 2020 Angels and 2021 Angels is that I feel like the Angels have a lower offensive floor.

At the start of 2020, they had: Castro/Stassi, La Stella/Pujols, Fletcher, Simmons, Rendon, Upton, Trout, Goodwin, and Ohtani.

At the start of 2021, they will have: Stassi/Suzuki, Walsh/Pujols, Fletcher, Iglesias, Rendon, Upton, Trout, Fowler, and Ohtani.

The problem with that is Suzuki is old, they won't have La Stella, Walsh isn't going to put up his video game 2020 numbers, Pujols will likely be worse, there are some questions around Upton, Fowler may be worse than Goodwin, and there might even be some questions around Ohtani.

Really, I think the loss of La Stella is going under the radar. He provided the Angels with a quality depth option at 1B and 2B. Now, Walsh's emergence may make up for it, but you knew La Stella had a high floor. For all we know, Walsh could have a 2019 type season in 2021.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I hope Bundy pitches well

Thanks for reading. Heres some Bundy boobs.

 

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Trendon said:

One (smaller) issue between the 2020 Angels and 2021 Angels is that I feel like the Angels have a lower offensive floor.

At the start of 2020, they had: Castro/Stassi, La Stella/Pujols, Fletcher, Simmons, Rendon, Upton, Trout, Goodwin, and Ohtani.

At the start of 2021, they will have: Stassi/Suzuki, Walsh/Pujols, Fletcher, Iglesias, Rendon, Upton, Trout, Fowler, and Ohtani.

The problem with that is Suzuki is old, they won't have La Stella, Walsh isn't going to put up his video game 2020 numbers, Pujols will likely be worse, there are some questions around Upton, Fowler may be worse than Goodwin, and there might even be some questions around Ohtani.

Really, I think the loss of La Stella is going under the radar. He provided the Angels with a quality depth option at 1B and 2B. Now, Walsh's emergence may make up for it, but you knew La Stella had a high floor. For all we know, Walsh could have a 2019 type season in 2021.

Lower floor, higher ceiling.

We had no place for La Stella, unfortunately. And for 3 years? Nah.  

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I hope Bundy pitches well

Thanks for reading. Heres some Bundy boobs.

 

[Pancake Bear]

14 minutes ago, Trendon said:

The problem with that is Suzuki is old, they won't have La Stella, Walsh isn't going to put up his video game 2020 numbers, Pujols will likely be worse, there are some questions around Upton, Fowler may be worse than Goodwin, and there might even be some questions around Ohtani.

- Castro batted .188 with a 85 wRC+ last year. Suzuki has never had a season close to that bad. His wRC+ has stayed constant around 100 the last few years. Now, will Stassi be worse than his 137 wRC+ last year? Almost certainly. But he mostly performed big against 1-2 teams and was meh the rest of the time. Catcher won't be noticeably worse (if at all) this season. 
- We have no idea what Walsh is gonna do. Will he be worse than he was in September? Definitely. Could he have unlocked something in his swing through coaching that will make a permanent improvement and lead to him being at least a league average 1B? I don't see why not. We'll have to wait and see. Wouldn't be the first time a guy broke out offensively in his last twenties. 
- Pujols will barely play unless he improves (he won't), so I don't see what the point is in even mentioning this. 
- Upton improved significantly after his slow start last year. There are always questions about everyone - even Trout. We won't know until the season gets going where he is. 
- Considering RF was a black hole last year, I doubt we could do any worse. 
- Ohtani had an 82 wRC+. How exactly could our offensive floor in 2021 be worse than that? We could call up Ward to do better than that. 

La Stella is the biggest loss, but he only played half the season. Simmons is a loss, but he wasn't good even when healthy last year.

I just don't see us as being especially worse, and I see potential for improvement. But one more time: We won't know for certain until the season happens.

 

[failos]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I thought you used this joke already.  

In your dreams maybe 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Even with all these moves, I feel like our season is going to rely on to big factors.

1. health of our Starters, Mostly Othani and Canning

If both of these guys can stay healthy for the entire season, than this will give us a good outlook!

2. Devlopment. 

  a. Marsh and Adell in the outfield

   b. Detmers/Rodriguez. We'll be needing one of hopefully both of these guys down the road.

Every single year for virtually every single team it comes down to health of the rotation.  This year at least we are about 10 deep at starting pitchers with some major league level experience.  Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Quintana, Barria, Ohtani, Cobb, Sandoval, Pena, Suarez.  That feels deeper than previous years.  Sure it might be deeper in mediocrity, but at least they have some experience.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Even with all these moves, I feel like our season is going to rely on to big factors.

1. health of our Starters, Mostly Othani and Canning

If both of these guys can stay healthy for the entire season, than this will give us a good outlook!

2. Devlopment. 

  a. Marsh and Adell in the outfield

   b. Detmers/Rodriguez. We'll be needing one of hopefully both of these guys down the road.

Agree on one - although "health" for those two means a combined 40-45 starts.

I do expect Marsh and Adell to get a combined 400+ PA, maybe more if Upton struggles or gets hurt.

I don't think the Angels are depending upon Detmers and Rodriguez for 2021. They might get a few starts late in the year and I suppose there's a chance that one of them is called up by mid-season, but only if they're tearing through AA/AAA and there's injuries on the big league club. 

Here's a pipe dream: Upton has a great year and the Angels find a trade partner in July and we end the season with that Adell-Trout-Marsh outfield we've been waiting for for a few years.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

I scrolled through this entire thread thinking i'd see more boobs. I'm disappointed....

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I scrolled through this entire thread thinking i'd see more boobs. I'm disappointed....

Seen one seen both

[T.G.]

You know @tdawg87 made 2 good points.

[Jeff Fletcher]

When teams improve dramatically, it is almost always because the players they already had got better, not because they brought in enough new players to make a jump. 
 

One of the things Minasian talked about a lot is the impact the new guys can have on the other guys, not just in being good dudes, but contributing to them performing better. 
 

Will it happen? We’ll see 

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I scrolled through this entire thread thinking i'd see more boobs. I'm disappointed....

Here ya go....

[eligrba]

I keep trying to understand the outrage about Cobb.  When I look at his stats in Tampa, he appeared to be a solid pitcher.  When I look at his stats in Baltimore, I can't tell if he was the problem or Camden Yard plus horrific defense was the problem.  I don't expect him to be a top of the rotation pitcher, but I will not be surprised if he performs more closely to his Tampa Bay stats than his Baltimore stats.  The following stats from FanGraphs suggests that Camden Yard plus horrific defense were huge contributors in Cobbs statistical decline while in Baltimore: Cobb's ground ball percentage increased to what they were in TB (adjusting his pitching to the stadium and not necessarily to his strengths), his HR/FB percentage declined (adjusting his pitching to the stadium and not necessarily to his strengths), however, his HR/FB percentage was still a bit higher than they were in TB, his LOB percentage increased to levels similar to what they were in TB (making the pitch he needs to get out of an inning-every Angel pitcher could learn from this), his BABIP declined in 2020 to the lowest point in his career, his BB were up a bit but his K's were similar to his TB numbers.  Cobbs stats in 2020 show more similarity to his performance in TB than Baltimore.  Given the horrific defense that played behind him in Baltimore, and the tendency for official scorers to hedge questionable plays in favor of the hitter, I think Cobb will be fine in Anaheim.  To me, he looks like Cobb was a bad fit for Camden Yard, suggesting the GM didn't have an understanding of the type of pitcher that would be best for the team and the stadium.

[Angelsfan1984]

33 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I keep trying to understand the outrage about Cobb.  When I look at his stats in Tampa, he appeared to be a solid pitcher.  When I look at his stats in Baltimore, I can't tell if he was the problem or Camden Yard plus horrific defense was the problem.  I don't expect him to be a top of the rotation pitcher, but I will not be surprised if he performs more closely to his Tampa Bay stats than his Baltimore stats.  The following stats from FanGraphs suggests that Camden Yard plus horrific defense were huge contributors in Cobbs statistical decline while in Baltimore: Cobb's ground ball percentage increased to what they were in TB (adjusting his pitching to the stadium and not necessarily to his strengths), his HR/FB percentage declined (adjusting his pitching to the stadium and not necessarily to his strengths), however, his HR/FB percentage was still a bit higher than they were in TB, his LOB percentage increased to levels similar to what they were in TB (making the pitch he needs to get out of an inning-every Angel pitcher could learn from this), his BABIP declined in 2020 to the lowest point in his career, his BB were up a bit but his K's were similar to his TB numbers.  Cobbs stats in 2020 show more similarity to his performance in TB than Baltimore.  Given the horrific defense that played behind him in Baltimore, and the tendency for official scorers to hedge questionable plays in favor of the hitter, I think Cobb will be fine in Anaheim.  To me, he looks like Cobb was a bad fit for Camden Yard, suggesting the GM didn't have an understanding of the type of pitcher that would be best for the team and the stadium.

I think more people are upset over trading jones than getting Cobb. He will have an elite inf defense + Albert around him in Anaheim which would leave one to believe as long as he keeps the hall down he’ll have more success 

[Angels 1961]

As soon as Odorizzi is signed Barria to pen

[tdawg87]

23 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I keep trying to understand the outrage about Cobb.  When I look at his stats in Tampa, he appeared to be a solid pitcher.  When I look at his stats in Baltimore, I can't tell if he was the problem or Camden Yard plus horrific defense was the problem.  I don't expect him to be a top of the rotation pitcher, but I will not be surprised if he performs more closely to his Tampa Bay stats than his Baltimore stats.  The following stats from FanGraphs suggests that Camden Yard plus horrific defense were huge contributors in Cobbs statistical decline while in Baltimore: Cobb's ground ball percentage increased to what they were in TB (adjusting his pitching to the stadium and not necessarily to his strengths), his HR/FB percentage declined (adjusting his pitching to the stadium and not necessarily to his strengths), however, his HR/FB percentage was still a bit higher than they were in TB, his LOB percentage increased to levels similar to what they were in TB (making the pitch he needs to get out of an inning-every Angel pitcher could learn from this), his BABIP declined in 2020 to the lowest point in his career, his BB were up a bit but his K's were similar to his TB numbers.  Cobbs stats in 2020 show more similarity to his performance in TB than Baltimore.  Given the horrific defense that played behind him in Baltimore, and the tendency for official scorers to hedge questionable plays in favor of the hitter, I think Cobb will be fine in Anaheim.  To me, he looks like Cobb was a bad fit for Camden Yard, suggesting the GM didn't have an understanding of the type of pitcher that would be best for the team and the stadium.

Paragraphs!

ERA+ is adjusted for park factors and his has been 86 since 2018. Also, his FIP has been awful the last 5 years, which is basically a prediction of what his ERA should be if the defense turned outs at an average rate. So far, his ERA has been pretty close to his FIP.

I will never understand that trade and even if Cobb somehow dominates, I'm going to assume it's only luck.

[eligrba]

8 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Paragraphs!

ERA+ is adjusted for park factors and his has been 86 since 2018. Also, his FIP has been awful the last 5 years, which is basically a prediction of what his ERA should be if the defense turned outs at an average rate. So far, his ERA has been pretty close to his FIP.

I will never understand that trade and even if Cobb somehow dominates, I'm going to assume it's only luck.

I understand the ERA+ normalizes a pitcher's ERA using the league average ERA and the park, but it does not consider who is playing on defense.  The fact that Cobb has a lower ERA+ than 100 supports my suspicion that he is not a good fit to Camden Yard.  (Cobb's ERA+ in 2020 was 106.  It was 44 in 2019 which skews his average a bit.) FIP removes the impact of any balls hit into play because the stat focuses only on what the pitcher can control.  However, I imagine that Cobbs FIP could have been negatively affected by poor defense because he might have needed to pitch in a manner that did not utilize his strengths. (Cobbs FIP was 4.87 in 2020,  It was 11.89 in 2019).  To put it into perspective, Heaney's ERA+ in 2020 was 101 and his FIP was 3.79.  Canning's ERA+ in 2020 was 113 and his FIP was 4.33.

I have no idea about Cobb because I never paid attention to him when he pitched.  For all I know, he could be the MLB personification of Rudi Stein.

[eligrba]

35 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

I think more people are upset over trading jones than getting Cobb. He will have an elite inf defense + Albert around him in Anaheim which would leave one to believe as long as he keeps the hall down he’ll have more success 

I also have trouble with understanding why trading Jones was such a loss.  I think the Angels did him a favor by trading him to a team that can give him an opportunity to play.  I can understand the outrage at Eppler for trading Wilson to get rid of Cozart, but not for this.  Maybe I am missing something, but Jones is still a prospect with an unknown future whereas Cobb is a MLB pitcher.  We can debate Cobb's performance later, but trading an unknown asset for a known asset seems like a logical move.  If Jones had more value, I am confident that Minasian would have made a different trade with Jones.

[tdawg87]

12 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I understand the ERA+ normalizes a pitcher's ERA using the league average ERA and the park, but it does not consider who is playing on defense.  The fact that Cobb has a lower ERA+ than 100 supports my suspicion that he is not a good fit to Camden Yard.

I think you might be misunderstanding ERA+ because it factors the parks you pitch in. If the park was negatively impacting his adjusted ERA, it would be closer to 100, not lower. His 86 ERA+ means he's pitching poorly regardless. A 4.50 ERA pitching in Camden is going to have a higher ERA+ than a 4.50 ERA in Anaheim.

Also, you know who the O's shortstop was last year, right? 

I don't doubt that the Angels have a better defense than Baltimore, but is it going to make that big of a difference? 

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I also have trouble with understanding why trading Jones was such a loss.  I think the Angels did him a favor by trading him to a team that can give him an opportunity to play.  I can understand the outrage at Eppler for trading Wilson to get rid of Cozart, but not for this.  Maybe I am missing something, but Jones is still a prospect with an unknown future whereas Cobb is a MLB pitcher.  We can debate Cobb's performance later, but trading an unknown asset for a known asset seems like a logical move.  If Jones had more value, I am confident that Minasian would have made a different trade with Jones.

If this were true and it were logical then we'd be better off trading our farm system for known assets.  Just because a player is known, doesn't mean they're good.  

Jones wasn't such a loss.  He was a mediocre prospect.  

Cobb isn't very good.  You posted a bunch of stats to sorta try and make him seem better, but honestly most of it didn't really make a ton of sense.  

so it's a combo of things.  Cobb isn't good.  Other guys who are likely better were available for a few mil more.  Saving money on Cobb didn't allow the halos to afford anything else.  Cobb likely blocks or takes innings from a better pitcher and it's cost a prospect when we could have gotten a shitty 'known' asset by just grabbing a free agent.  

If Cobb does well this year it's either that Minasian is a better GM than almost everyone else or it was pretty much just dumb luck.  

[T.G.]

43 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I also have trouble with understanding why trading Jones was such a loss.  

Because many on AW over value Angels prospects.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, T.G. said:

Because many on AW over value Angels prospects.

or people on AW don't like to waste any asset, regardless of their value, on crap players.  

[ThisismineScios]

32 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I also have trouble with understanding why trading Jones was such a loss.  I think the Angels did him a favor by trading him to a team that can give him an opportunity to play.  I can understand the outrage at Eppler for trading Wilson to get rid of Cozart, but not for this.  Maybe I am missing something, but Jones is still a prospect with an unknown future whereas Cobb is a MLB pitcher.  We can debate Cobb's performance later, but trading an unknown asset for a known asset seems like a logical move.  If Jones had more value, I am confident that Minasian would have made a different trade with Jones.

That's the thing when it comes to prospects. Either they are a part of your future, will become more valuable to trade later, or they have peaked in value. In this case neither applied to Jam. People saw the swing tinkering, the position changes, and he lost a lot of his appeal due to the fact that he's 23. His value wasn't going up, and he didn't have a place in the future. What else could they have done? Cobb may be serviceable, he may have a rejuvenation, he may thrive in a new situation. In his Q and A, he talked about how excited he was to be on a playoff contender, out of Baltimore, and how a full on rebuild wasn't what he signed up for in 2018.