Minasian and the rotation.

[tdawg87]

Alright let's just get this out of the way: I do not like the SP acquisitions this offseason. Quintana is fine, but Cobb is gonna have to pitch much better than he has for me to understand that trade. As of now, it's an absolute ball scratcher.

That said, I think he's looking at what happened last year at the back of the rotation as well as the depth. He's also banking on significant improvement from Ohtani.

The Angels used 10 starting pitchers in 2020. Teheran, Ohtani, Suarez, Peters, and Andriese all combined for 15 starts. That's 1/4 of the season. 

They had an 12.29 ERA. And that's with Andriese giving up 0 runs over 5.2 innings.

The other five, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval, and Barria had a *4.22 ERA. That would have been good for 12th in baseball, and 5th in the AL. The 5 starters I mentioned in the previous paragraph, including Ohtani, took the rotation from being above average to the 2nd worst in baseball. This is despite only making 1/4 of the starts. That's how fucking bad they were.

[*is based on overall ERA for GS, Barria and Sandoval made "relief" appearances.]

So, lets say the rotation this year is Bundy, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Cobb, Ohtani. Quintana replaces Sandoval, who put up a 6.75 ERA. I'm going out on a limb and say Quintana pitches better than that. 

Cobb replaces Teheran and his 10.73 ERA as a starter. Even if Cobb sucks and has a 5.00 ERA, that's a pretty significant improvement. 

Anyway, I'm done with stats. My point is I kind of get what Minasian is doing this year: He's strengthening the back end and the depth so when we need 4-5 starters to pitch in a quarter of the games this year, it won't be so devastating. 

I lied, I'm not done with stats. 

Let's say we need 10 starters again, and the 4-5 "back up" guys suck and combine for a 7.00 ERA. Let's also say the main rotation doesn't improve and keeps the 4.22 ERA. That would give the rotation a 4.59 ERA, which would have been 18th in baseball and 9th in the AL. Is that good? Of course not, but I'm assuming the rotation sees no improvement and the depth sucks, just not quite as hard as 2020. And that's still overall much, much better than 2020.

Minasian isn't just trying to improve that 4.22 ERA with Quintana, he's trying to improve the fucking 12.29 ERA with Cobb and a healthy Ohtani. Barria will take starts away from Suarez, and Sandoval will make sure Peters never sees another inning. 

The rotation won't be good, barring some incredible performances. But it could be average, which is so ridiculously better than last year it's not even funny.

Here's some boobs for reading my shit:

[greginpsca]

That is exactly what Minasian is thinking. And with a better bullpen not blowing saves, we could see a big improvement. 

 

 

 

BTW, the boobs are awesome.

[Stradling]

The rotation will be improved for sure. Hell if he did nothing there’s a very real possibility it would improve. I want one more multi year signing or one more arm in the pen. 

[Erstad Grit]

Good logic,  but now  we're expecting Bundy to duplicate the best he's ever had.  

I mean 2021 teheran will probably be better than 2020 teheran so for me moot point.  

For me I saw playoff teams like Dodgers,  Padres,  and Braves significantly improve their rotations and we didn't do much imo.

[UndertheHalo]

I just think the situation is that we don’t really have any starting pitchers that we can reliably assume to be “good” 

Heaney and Bundy will probably be fine, but the odds are about equal that they’ll be good or train wrecks.  Quintana is a similar situation hopefully.  But I think he’s a little bigger question mark so I don’t want to group him in with the other two.  Cobb is probably not going to be good.  But who knows maybe he ends up being fine as back end starter.
 

The youngsters.  Truly who knows.  Obviously Canning has nice upside but there is very fair worry about his durability. Barria and Sandoval seem like they should continue developing into reliably decent back end types.  Or maybe a little better with some luck.  Again, it’s very much up in the air. 
 

and Ohtani, I mean what can you say ? He’s barely been able to pitch for 2 full seasons.  Serious arm issues even after the Tommy John.  I know you have to be patient with TJ and hopefully that’s the case but it’s possible he’s just not going to be able to be what we were hoping.  Tommy John doesn’t always produce the outcomes you hope for.  It would be nice if he was healed up and able to resume what we saw in his rookie year but it seems unreasonable to bank on that.  
 

the Angels just don't have any certainty with their rotation.  I know that’s an issue with all pitchers but even as that goes the Angels seem like a mess.  And the bullpen ? An even bigger who the fuck knows situation.  
 

Anyway.  We just have to hope they get lucky and the band of possibilities turns our way finally.  It just hasn’t for a long time. 
 

at least the offense seems like it could possibly be very good.   .

Edited February 13, 2021 by UndertheHalo

[Angel Oracle]

Continue to draft pitching, and create a deep farm system there.

[Chuck]

21 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Alright let's just get this out of the way: I do not like the SP acquisitions this offseason. Quintana is fine, but Cobb is gonna have to pitch much better than he has for me to understand that trade. As of now, it's an absolute ball scratcher.

That said, I think he's looking at what happened last year at the back of the rotation as well as the depth. He's also banking on significant improvement from Ohtani.

The Angels used 10 starting pitchers in 2020. Teheran, Ohtani, Suarez, Peters, and Andriese all combined for 15 starts. That's 1/4 of the season. 

They had an 12.29 ERA. And that's with Andriese giving up 0 runs over 5.2 innings.

The other five, Bundy, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval, and Barria had a *4.22 ERA. That would have been good for 12th in baseball, and 5th in the AL. The 5 starters I mentioned in the previous paragraph, including Ohtani, took the rotation from being above average to the 2nd worst in baseball. This is despite only making 1/4 of the starts. That's how fucking bad they were.

[*is based on overall ERA for GS, Barria and Sandoval made "relief" appearances.]

So, lets say the rotation this year is Bundy, Heaney, Quintana, Canning, Cobb, Ohtani. Quintana replaces Sandoval, who put up a 6.75 ERA. I'm going out on a limb and say Quintana pitches better than that. 

Cobb replaces Teheran and his 10.73 ERA as a starter. Even if Cobb sucks and has a 5.00 ERA, that's a pretty significant improvement. 

Anyway, I'm done with stats. My point is I kind of get what Minasian is doing this year: He's strengthening the back end and the depth so when we need 4-5 starters to pitch in a quarter of the games this year, it won't be so devastating. 

I lied, I'm not done with stats. 

Let's say we need 10 starters again, and the 4-5 "back up" guys suck and combine for a 7.00 ERA. Let's also say the main rotation doesn't improve and keeps the 4.22 ERA. That would give the rotation a 4.59 ERA, which would have been 18th in baseball and 9th in the AL. Is that good? Of course not, but I'm assuming the rotation sees no improvement and the depth sucks, just not quite as hard as 2020. And that's still overall much, much better than 2020.

Minasian isn't just trying to improve that 4.22 ERA with Quintana, he's trying to improve the fucking 12.29 ERA with Cobb and a healthy Ohtani. Barria will take starts away from Suarez, and Sandoval will make sure Peters never sees another inning. 

The rotation won't be good, barring some incredible performances. But it could be average, which is so ridiculously better than last year it's not even funny.

Here's some boobs for reading my shit:

I skipped to the boobs. Will read later.

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I skipped to the boobs. Will read later.

Read what later?

[Angels 1961]

Looks like 6 man rotation, I still think Minasian brings in 1 more starter. Halos always have injuries and I put Barria as number 6 right now. If another starter is signed Barria goes to pen. I think halos will bring Ohtani along slowly and he will not pitch till end of May. One more starter and 1 more bullpen arm. 

[Torridd]

I think the main point is that going into the offseason everyone knew the Angels needed pitching. I think Minasian did the minimum to address the issue. I'm not even going to blame the GM any more because Eppler did the same thing. This HAS to be ownership. I think this was the general assessment by Moreno: "Get some backup pitching but don't spend too much because Ohtani seems to be healthy."

[Torridd]

52 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Looks like 6 man rotation, I still think Minasian brings in 1 more starter. Halos always have injuries and I put Barria as number 6 right now. If another starter is signed Barria goes to pen. I think halos will bring Ohtani along slowly and he will not pitch till end of May. One more starter and 1 more bullpen arm. 

I hope you're right. What's been done so far doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Torridd said:

I think the main point is that going into the offseason everyone knew the Angels needed pitching. I think Minasian did the minimum to address the issue. I'm not even going to blame the GM any more because Eppler did the same thing. This HAS to be ownership. I think this was the general assessment by Moreno: "Get some backup pitching but don't spend too much because Ohtani seems to be healthy."

Yea that’s pretty much all fan speak for, “I wanted something different”.  What he did makes sense. I don’t get the Cobb thing but I also don’t know how much we are paying him this year. 

[Angelsjunky]

29 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea that’s pretty much all fan speak for, “I wanted something different”.  What he did makes sense. I don’t get the Cobb thing but I also don’t know how much we are paying him this year. 

$5M.

[Docwaukee]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

$5M.

a decent chunk is supposedly deferred.  

[failos]

Minasian and the Rotation

Sounds like the name of a band

[BTH]

Yeah, I think the Angels have added enough to where the back end of the rotation should be significantly better in 2021 than it was in 2020.

One worry I do have is that Bundy, Canning, and Heaney may not perform as well in 2021 as they did in 2020, which is why it might've been nice to get some higher upside plays over Quintana and/or Cobb.

[ThisismineScios]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea that’s pretty much all fan speak for, “I wanted something different”.  What he did makes sense. I don’t get the Cobb thing but I also don’t know how much we are paying him this year. 

Jake Arrieta just signed for $5 million. I am fine paying Cobb $2-3 million this year. 

The moves are not headline grabbing. But let's say Perry had a budget of $30-35 million to spend this offseason. Let's recall last season what did us in and what has been done to remedy that (remedy being subjective):

-Suarez, Teheran, Sandoval, Ohtani, Peters starts. Solution: Quintana, Cobb, healthy Ohtani, 1-2 guys like Farria who may hit. 
-14 blown saves. Solution: Get Iglesias. Goodbye Robles. Goodbye Barnes. Goodbye Milner. Move Buttrey to cushioned roles to build confidence. Get GB% guys to get out of jams. 
-RF the first 40 games. Adell was bad, Ward was bad (first 40), Rengifo was bad, Walsh was bad in OF. Solution: Fowler, Jay, Ward, Lagares to compete for that spot. Allow Marsh/Adell more time to develop. 
-SS without Simba or La Stella, forcing Fletcher to short and nons at 2B. A lot of Rengifo's empty offense and spotty defense. Solution: Iglesias, and Rengifo and Barreto as utility roles. Thaiss can play 3B if needed. 
-Catcher: Bemboom's was essentially a nonfactor. Solution: Bring in Suzuki to solidify the backup spot, especially with Stassi seeming to get hurt a lot. 

Do I love it? No. I would have loved to sign some better starters, better relievers (maybe we still will), and a guy like Joc in RF. Maybe trade for a starter or catcher. But they answered every major problem they had last year. Maybe not the in the best capacity possible, but they have addressed every problem that led to them being unsuccessful. 

[tdawg87]

2 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Good logic,  but now  we're expecting Bundy to duplicate the best he's ever had.  

I mean 2021 teheran will probably be better than 2020 teheran so for me moot point.  

For me I saw playoff teams like Dodgers,  Padres,  and Braves significantly improve their rotations and we didn't do much imo.

I think Bundy will be closer to what he was in Baltimore. But Quintana > Sandoval will offset the difference.

Canning will improve, I think. But then Cobb will likely be worse than Barria (fucking hell I still don't get that trade).

It'll be about the same, ultimately. But that's still above average overall. It's the 40 or so starts we will get from guys like Barria, Sandoval, Suarez, and possibly Detmers, that will need to improve. Significantly.

I think pushing Barria back is key, it's just unfortunate he doesn't have any options. He'll likely start in the bullpen unless someone gets hurt in ST, which is almost a certainty.

[ten ocho recon scout]

22 minutes ago, failos said:

Minasian and the Rotation

Sounds like the name of a band

Beat me to it.

A hole

[tdawg87]

Rotasian.

[failos]

26 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Beat me to it.

A hole

Great minds think alike my friend

[failos]

22 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Rotasian.

Niiiiice

[beatlesrule]

More boobs, less words next time.

[Second Base]

If we compare the team to the 2020 version from February of 2020, we can scope out some differences. But the key difference as I see it is variance.

The 2020 Angels had a ton of it. The likelihood of injury or incompetence from several key positions was high. The breakout potential was limited to Ohtani and Bundy. 

The likelihood of injury or incompetence from the group that Minasian has assembled is much lower. And the breakout potential is pretty limited to Ohtani and Walsh. 

There's a much higher floor to the 2021 Angels. The 2020 Angels, if things didn't go right, were destined for 75-80 wins. And if things went right, you're looking at a 90-95 win team across a non-shortened season. I think the end result of 2020 would've been an 80 win team. 

But the 2020 Angels had bad luck. A luck neutral result from the 2020 team would slotted them at 83 wins, I believe.

By contrast, the 2021 Angels as presently constructed, if things don't go right, are probably a .500 ball club. 82 wins. And if things go right, are probably a 92-ish win team. The luck neutral result I think it's an 87 win club. 

But there's also comparison to take into account. The 2020 team had to deal with an Astros team destined for 95+ wins and a very strong A's team that would be right on their heels. The Angels were playing for a WC2 spot, that's it. The 2021 version of things sees a greatly diminished Astros and A's team, each of which are likely 85-90 win teams. If the Angels win 87 games as I believe they will, they'll be right there in the mix for the division title and both wild card spots. 

The most frustrating part, at least as I see it, is the lack of willingness from Minasian or ownership to invest more in the short term before returning to a more conservative approach later when prospects develop to cut costs. Willingness it short-sightedness. 

There's blood in the water and with some aggressive moves, they can position themselves to run away with the division. Instead, I think you're seeing a toss up. They probably have a 25% chance of winning the division and a 33% chance of winning a wild card spot.

Without further moves, it's likely the 2021 Angels are not a playoff team, but they'll be close. That's frustrating.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2021 by Second Base

[Vlad27Trout27]

Even with all these moves, I feel like our season is going to rely on to big factors.

1. health of our Starters, Mostly Othani and Canning

If both of these guys can stay healthy for the entire season, than this will give us a good outlook!

2. Devlopment. 

  a. Marsh and Adell in the outfield

   b. Detmers/Rodriguez. We'll be needing one of hopefully both of these guys down the road.