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The Official 2020-2021 Hot Stove Offseason Thread


rafibomb

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15 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Guys...the player himself is literally saying it's not true.

Which part? I mean, "It's not true" could mean a number of things. It could mean he's also open to 3/50aav (150), or 7/27aav. It could mean he's asking for 40 over 5 or 36 over 6. "It's not" feels evasive to me.

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5 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Which part? I mean, "It's not true" could mean a number of things. It could mean he's also open to 3/50aav (150), or 7/27aav. It could mean he's asking for 40 over 5 or 36 over 6. "It's not" feels evasive to me.

Ok then.

Bauer could be asking for a 5 - 6 year deal worth $36M to $41M.

My response was to people saying "if that's true then..."

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5 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

All I was saying: without more specificity and with just a general denial it's fair to question how much of it might be accurate. 

Players / agents ask for high values, knowing it is unlikely they'll get that, and ultimately settle on lower figures.

Bauer won't get that and he knows it, at least not in this current financial climate.  Who would give him 35mil/yr?  Certainly not the Blue Jays.  The Mets are unlikely to do that if they sign Springer to a 25mil AAV deal this offseason, as well as any other moves they make.

Minasian isn't wired that way and he won't offer that, either.

Instead, what I think we'll see if Minasian will just wait, let free agency take its course, and try to swing bigger moves towards the end of the offseason.  With few teams willing to spend, there should be a nice set of events for any team that does want to spend - in February, there will be a lot of free agents still looking for jobs *AND* teams who are still looking to unload payroll.

Likely, as long as Minasian is patient (and us fans, too), he can get some great value as long as he continues to wait.

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My preference, in terms of our options, is to still utilize prospects to acquire one of Marquez or Castillo, to headline our rotation for years to come, and to wait out the free agency market and try to sign a 2nd SP at a modest/discounted 1-2 year deal - Odorizzi, Quintana, Archer - someone in that category.

Marquez/Castillo, Bundy, Heaney, Odorizzi/Quintana/Archer, Canning, Ohtani should be more than enough to keep us strongly competitive this upcoming year.

The prospect capital required to get one of Marqueez or Castillo will be significant, and should likely be viewed on par with what SD had to do to get Snell, but it's likely our best path to contention this upcoming year, as the above moves would just add ~15-20mil in team payroll while acquiring 2 legit SPs.

The rest of the available money can be used to sign a corner OF and catcher at a discounted price sometime in February, as players become desperate to find teams who will sign them.

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Here's one I came across which I thought was..... intriguing. 

The idea of going after Gray makes sense and headlining the package of Adell could net Garrett and possibly one of Lorenzen/Antone. ( though maybe bigger package using Marsh might work better)

The part where it doesn't match is the Reds will be giving up 4 pitchers and we're returning it with only Adell/Rengifo. We'd have to rework their return completely adding in pitching. 

Financially, Gray + Garrett + Lorenzen + Antone will be roughly $15.7M leaving plenty of room for the Angels to get someone like Joc for RF and to look at a catcher. 

Screen Shot 2020-12-30 at 7.39.42 AM.png

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2 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Here's one I came across which I thought was..... intriguing. 

The idea of going after Gray makes sense and headlining the package of Adell could net Garrett and possibly one of Lorenzen/Antone. ( though maybe bigger package using Marsh might work better)

The part where it doesn't match is the Reds will be giving up 4 pitchers and we're returning it with only Adell/Rengifo. We'd have to rework their return completely adding in pitching. 

Financially, Gray + Garrett + Lorenzen + Antone will be roughly $15.7M leaving plenty of room for the Angels to get someone like Joc for RF and to look at a catcher. 

Screen Shot 2020-12-30 at 7.39.42 AM.png

The more I see BTVs valuations the less I trust it.  Adell does not hold 28 times Rengifo's value, at least the Dodgers didn't think so when they were willing to  send Joc and Stripling for him (and PTBNL).  Perhaps I am not understanding something but I've seen several true head scratchers on that site.

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2 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

The more I see BTVs valuations the less I trust it.  Adell does not hold 28 times Rengifo's value, at least the Dodgers didn't think so when they were willing to  send Joc and Stripling for him (and PTBNL).  Perhaps I am not understanding something but I've seen several true head scratchers on that site.

BTV isn't exact by any means, but when it came to the Snell and Darvish trades it was at least in the ballpark range. It's usable to get a very basic idea which I think is good.

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Every year, we talk about just how stupid Jon Heyman is, and every year, this puppet still has a job. It really irks me the way no one in the media is held accountable. 

Boras feeds him whatever narrative Boras wants there to be. No genuine reporting or insider information. Then he specifically spreads complete fabrications and is called out on it by teams and players, every single year.

This year, Bauer and Luba have both held him accountable via Twitter and shared his BS tactics with the whole he world to see.

People just need to stop sharing what Heyman writes. He's a virtue signaling butt-dart and the off-season would be better without him. The only difference between Heyman and any other Twitter account that portends to have insider information is Heyman gets paid to do it. Stop reading and sharing him, and he won't get paid and we can begin to filter who actually has and hasn't insider information.

Nightingale isn't far behind Heyman either.

Edited by Second Base
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