Pitcher List on Angels starters in 2020

[Stradling]

19 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Yup, I was board with Harvey and Cahill. The difference is, I've learned, something you've proven incapable of. 

Well that something you’ve learned certainly isn’t math.  You called us talking heads, when you were right there with us, so yea, it falls on deaf ears.  Go right ahead and discount my opinion, I don’t really care.  @Dochalo has ALWAYS been a voice of reason, so when you choose to discredit him, it really speaks volumes about you, or at the very least, about your opinion on this subject.  

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Again, it would appear AW has been so dumbed down that your best posters legitimately believe Bundy and Teheran are the answer.

I feel legitimately sorry for you. I provide numbers and you throw a tantrum. I offer opinion, and you disagree. I offer common sense and you cover your ears. 

Sorry guys. The Angels rotation sucks at this point in time. There's just no way around that. And if you can't recognize that, it's either because your choosing to ignore the obvious or you're just that plain dumb. I can't answer that for you.

For the most part though, what I'm seeing is a large collection of individuals that are smart enough to be stupid homers. Alas, hope springs eternal. And some things, will never change.

The answer?  How fucking ridiculous.  Enjoy continuing to alienate yourself through your ignorance while you point the finger at others.  

[floplag]

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Again, it would appear AW has been so dumbed down that your best posters legitimately believe Bundy and Teheran are the answer.

I feel legitimately sorry for you. I provide numbers and you throw a tantrum. I offer opinion, and you disagree. I offer common sense and you cover your ears. 

Sorry guys. The Angels rotation sucks at this point in time. There's just no way around that. And if you can't recognize that, it's either because your choosing to ignore the obvious or you're just that plain dumb. I can't answer that for you.

For the most part though, what I'm seeing is a large collection of individuals that are smart enough to be stupid homers. Alas, hope springs eternal. And some things, will never change.

I dont think one person has said that they are an answer.
What they are is the best we could get, without gutting an already not great farm.
Our rotation will be average, not great, not bad. 
WE are projected to win mid to upper 80s, thats in the playoff mix, and yes it will likely be among the worst for playoff contending teams, but the fact that you are a playoff contending team tells the story that it really isnt that bad.

[mulwin444]

36 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Again, it would appear AW has been so dumbed down that your best posters legitimately believe Bundy and Teheran are the answer.

I feel legitimately sorry for you. I provide numbers and you throw a tantrum. I offer opinion, and you disagree. I offer common sense and you cover your ears. 

Sorry guys. The Angels rotation sucks at this point in time. There's just no way around that. And if you can't recognize that, it's either because your choosing to ignore the obvious or you're just that plain dumb. I can't answer that for you.

For the most part though, what I'm seeing is a large collection of individuals that are smart enough to be stupid homers. Alas, hope springs eternal. And some things, will never change.

You sound miserable...hope you can find some happiness in other aspects of your life.

[Docwaukee]

17 hours ago, Second Base said:

And @Stradling and @Dochalo, you keep accusing that I'm throwing this got because I'm not pleased with the way Eppler built the rotation, yet you two are the same talking heads that thought Harvey and Cahill would be just fine, and I'm still predicting 89 wins for this Angels team. 

aren't you implying from this that you didn't support yet we did?  I think that's already been proven false.  

you know that they didn't re-sign either Cahill or Harvey.  Is it that difficult to differentiate between those two and this years acquisitions?  Maybe that's where you are struggling with your understanding.  By lumping them all in the same bucket.  

You've learned?  What have you learned?  That all mediocre pitchers end up imploding and being awful?  

My take on the Harvey deal at the time was that I understood the willingness of Billy to go after someone with upside because a mediocre pitcher wasn't going to provide a ton of value to the rotation.  I also defended the amount it cost to sign him which was probably a couple mil more than expected.  

The other thing you really haven't done is talk about what better options Eppler could have pursued.  Would you have given up Marsh for Kluber?  I think I remember you being against that.  Would you have signed Ryu?  Even though I wouldn't have been a huge fan of that, it's at least fair.  Wheeler, Cole and Stras weren't coming here.  Was Keuchel worth the multi-year commitment?  Was Gibson?  Is Pineda really a huge upgrade over what we've got to the point that he'd have been a huge impact?  

I'm sure we'll get the generic cop out of 'Eppler needs to get creative'.  

Again, for the four or fifth or sixth time (I've lost track).  I'm not trying to convince you that our staff is good.  I'm not trying to stop you from having an opinion that they're terrible.  I'm arguing that your supposed factual support of your claim is full of flaws and my opinion is that they're not terrible.  Just mediocre.  

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, RBM said:

Mirror.

I agree

[Docwaukee]

44 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Again, it would appear AW has been so dumbed down that your best posters legitimately believe Bundy and Teheran are the answer.

I feel legitimately sorry for you. I provide numbers and you throw a tantrum. I offer opinion, and you disagree. I offer common sense and you cover your ears. 

Sorry guys. The Angels rotation sucks at this point in time. There's just no way around that. And if you can't recognize that, it's either because your choosing to ignore the obvious or you're just that plain dumb. I can't answer that for you.

For the most part though, what I'm seeing is a large collection of individuals that are smart enough to be stupid homers. Alas, hope springs eternal. And some things, will never change.

you're accusing others of throwing a tantrum?  you're a post away from writing in all caps sport.  

you've got an unpopular opinion which is fine and you may end up being right but your support of it with your 'numbers' is laughable and the reason you've gotten considerable push back.  It's not your opinion that people have a problem with, it's your supporting evidence that we've found to be an insult.  Especially to those that understand how the numbers work which you clearly don't.  

It's also the contention that because we are arguing against you that we feel the complete opposite.  Another nuance you've not been able to wrap your head around.  

[Taylor]

45 minutes ago, floplag said:

I dont think one person has said that they are an answer.
What they are is the best we could get, without gutting an already not great farm.
Our rotation will be average, not great, not bad. 
WE are projected to win mid to upper 80s, thats in the playoff mix, and yes it will likely be among the worst for playoff contending teams, but the fact that you are a playoff contending team tells the story that it really isnt that bad.

@Second Base When Flop is the voice of reason, you know you're being unreasonable.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I feel legitimately sorry for you. I provide numbers and you throw a tantrum. I offer opinion, and you disagree. I offer common sense and you cover your ears. 

I’ve only one person throwing a tantrum, and it’s the guy whose math has been shown to be so bad a five year old could find the mistake. 

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think it’s obvious that the Angels won’t win a lot of games where they don’t put up 4+ runs.  But I think that the line up can deliver that frequently and the staff and bullpen we have can keep us in games.  The biggest issue last year was innings.  That’s been substantially addressed.  With some luck the pitching will be decent enough.  There’s a lot of unfulfilled upside in this group that could be realized.  
 

i don’t think it needs to be explained that the Angels don’t currently have reliable shut down pitchers.  I think it’s pretty well understood.

Callaway is the underrated element in all of this.   

[floplag]

11 minutes ago, Taylor said:

@Second Base When Flop is the voice of reason, you know you're being unreasonable.

Why do i suddenly want to take it all back... 

[UndertheHalo]

I think Scotty needs a gosh darn chill pill.  

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think Scotty needs a gosh darn chill pill.  

We all fall off the rails sometimes, and often there are other factors at play in our personal or professional lives that have an impact on our thoughts, soul, and well being that others don't see, feel, or can understand. Agree though we should all keep a chill pill handy in our pockets for a rainy day.

[VariousCrap]

I've said it before and I'll say it again:  The Angels don't necessarily need a rotation that is as good as the Dodgers, Yankees and so on.  It would be awesome if they had one, but they don't need it.  They just need a rotation that is better than what they had last year and that is exactly what they have.  Put that with their offense and strong bullpen and good things will happen.  

 

 

 

[UndertheHalo]

36 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Callaway is the underrated element in all of this.   

Hopefully man. 

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, RBM said:

Agreed. And the key word is "all". I think some of us should realize it is a legitimate narrative that the 2020 rotation, as it is currently constructed, is no better than the 2019 rotation.

Personally, I think the rotation is hell of a lot better. I think Teheran and Bundy will have more success than Harvey and Cahill did.

But for some of you guys to act like you have is, well, it's fucking silly. Some of you guys who are trashing on @Second Base were the same guys who thought signing Harvey and/or Cahill was a really good move.

This debate will be answered on the field of play. Until then we should all respect legitimate narratives - even those we don't agree with.

 

 

Maybe “we’ve learned”.  And it ignores that Scotty also thought those were good signings. And once again it isn’t the opinion it’s the arrogance and supporting “stats” that were total shit. 

[Chuck]

19 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Projections wise....   The bolded numbers are ERA and fWAR respectively*

Mariners    

Marco Gonzales	196.0	6.9	2.4	1.5	.307	71.4 %	4.61	4.77	2.0
Yusei Kikuchi	173.0	7.3	2.9	1.5	.304	71.3 %	4.74	4.89	1.6
Justus Sheffield	148.0	7.9	4.3	1.4	.305	71.9 %	4.80	5.02	0.9
Kendall Graveman	137.0	6.8	2.6	1.5	.314	70.4 %	4.78	4.82	1.2
Justin Dunn	103.0	8.2	3.9	1.6	.302	70.5 %	5.09	5.17	0.8
Nick Margevicius	85.0	6.2	2.7	1.8	.299	70.0 %	5.18	5.40	0.2
Ljay Newsome	55.0	7.0	1.9	2.2	.292	70.8 %	5.27	5.51	0.1
Erik Swanson	19.0	8.8	2.6	1.6	.297	72.7 %	4.45	4.59	0.2
Anthony Misiewicz	18.0	7.1	3.0	1.7	.301	71.3 %	4.93	5.14	0.1
Total	935.0	7.2	3.0	1.6	.305	71.1 %	4.84	4.99	7.2

Orioles

Alex Cobb	181.0	6.4	2.6	1.7	.312	69.8 %	5.17	5.20	1.7
Asher Wojciechowski	141.0	7.8	3.4	2.3	.293	69.9 %	5.83	6.03	0.5
Brandon Bailey	85.0	7.6	4.7	2.0	.299	69.7 %	5.88	6.03	0.2
Bruce Zimmermann	18.0	6.5	4.1	1.8	.302	69.8 %	5.69	5.90	0.1
David Hess	9.0	7.8	3.4	2.1	.300	70.5 %	5.59	5.73	0.1
Dean Kremer	143.0	7.7	4.0	1.9	.300	70.3 %	5.54	5.69	0.7
John Means	183.0	7.0	2.6	2.0	.298	70.8 %	5.33	5.57	1.4
Keegan Akin	55.0	8.1	4.9	2.0	.294	71.0 %	5.74	6.03	0.1
Kohl Stewart	75.0	6.1	4.2	1.5	.309	68.7 %	5.52	5.60	0.4
Michael Baumann	18.0	6.8	4.6	2.0	.297	69.4 %	6.00	6.20	0.0
Total	947.0	7.2	3.5	1.9	.301	70.1 %	5.53	5.69	5.3

Angels

Julio Teheran	179.0	7.8	3.8	1.8	.301	70.5 %	5.30	5.47	0.5
Dylan Bundy	178.0	9.0	2.7	1.6	.301	72.3 %	4.47	4.55	2.2
Andrew Heaney	168.0	9.8	2.5	1.5	.300	74.2 %	4.01	4.15	2.8
Griffin Canning	135.0	9.2	3.0	1.5	.305	72.5 %	4.36	4.43	1.7
Shohei Ohtani	110.0	11.0	3.5	1.2	.304	74.9 %	3.74	3.81	2.2
Patrick Sandoval	66.0	8.5	3.9	1.4	.301	73.3 %	4.37	4.67	0.6
Jose Suarez	47.0	8.2	3.7	1.6	.299	72.3 %	4.77	5.07	0.4
Jaime Barria	19.0	8.1	2.5	1.9	.298	72.1 %	4.87	5.07	0.1
Matt Andriese	19.0	8.3	2.8	1.4	.304	72.5 %	4.29	4.42	0.3
Dillon Peters	9.0	7.1	3.0	1.5	.303	71.9 %	4.68	4.97	0.1
Total	929.0	9.1	3.1	1.5	.302	72.6 %	4.46	4.60	10.9

Don't look now but the Angels staff is closer to being in the A's class than it is the M's and Orioles..   And that's with the usual doom and gloom with Teheran.

Athletics

Mike Fiers	191.0	6.9	2.8	1.7	.303	69.2 %	5.21	5.26	1.2
Frankie Montas	186.0	8.5	2.9	1.2	.306	71.8 %	4.17	4.19	3.0
Sean Manaea	162.0	7.4	2.7	1.4	.304	71.0 %	4.58	4.69	1.7
Jesus Luzardo	141.0	9.2	3.1	1.3	.302	73.5 %	3.98	4.14	2.6
Chris Bassitt	113.0	8.3	3.1	1.3	.299	70.9 %	4.38	4.47	1.6
A.J. Puk	103.0	9.8	4.0	1.3	.300	73.8 %	4.13	4.33	1.7
Daniel Mengden	38.0	6.7	2.9	1.6	.304	69.9 %	5.02	5.09	0.3
Parker Dunshee	18.0	7.2	3.4	1.8	.295	69.4 %	5.37	5.51	0.0
Total	951.0	8.1	3.0	1.4	.303	71.4 %	4.50	4.59	12.2

Twins

Jose Berrios	201.0	8.6	2.7	1.5	.307	71.2 %	4.49	4.47	3.1
Jake Odorizzi	172.0	9.4	3.2	1.6	.302	72.6 %	4.58	4.63	2.3
Homer Bailey	153.0	7.2	2.9	1.6	.308	69.9 %	5.02	5.01	1.4
Michael Pineda	129.0	8.2	2.2	1.6	.311	71.0 %	4.63	4.54	1.7
Rich Hill	94.0	9.4	3.2	1.5	.302	72.5 %	4.42	4.52	1.3
Randy Dobnak	85.0	6.0	2.7	1.5	.310	69.0 %	5.03	5.05	0.8
Devin Smeltzer	56.0	7.2	2.7	1.8	.301	71.0 %	5.03	5.20	0.4
Lewis Thorpe	28.0	9.2	3.1	1.6	.302	73.3 %	4.40	4.53	0.4
Sean Poppen	18.0	7.4	3.9	1.4	.310	69.5 %	5.07	5.08	0.1
Total	937.0	8.2	2.9	1.6	.306	71.1 %	4.69	4.71	11.5

This is some good shit, @Inside Pitch

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think Scotty needs a gosh darn chill pill.  

Or a slap across the head, followed by a hug. 

I've been there too.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, RBM said:

Confused.

"it ignores that Scotty also thought those were good signings." is completely irrelevant. Actually, it can be argued that he learned from his mistake last year of having confidence in Harvey and Cahill while those abusing him for his narrative have not.

The thought that Teheran, Bundy and Andriese are not the answer is a legitimate narrative.

I personally think Teheran and Bundy will put the Angels in a position to play meaningful games in September but I could be completely wrong. 

Either way the Narrative is legit.

...and if we are grading on "it's the arrogance" then little boy Nate would ban you Strad. 

Yes you are confused if you agree with him that anyone is claiming they are the answer.  Also it’s not the opinion it’s his ridiculous math to back up his opinion.  

[Lou]

Hofstra math.

Learn it, fellas. 

[Hubs]

Teheran will be better, Bundy will be better, Heaney is right on. Canning will be better, Ohtani will be better. Sandoval I think gets more innings. Andriese gets more innings.
 

Julio Teheran	179.0	7.8	3.8	1.8	.301	70.5 %	5.30	5.47	0.5
Dylan Bundy	178.0	9.0	2.7	1.6	.301	72.3 %	4.47	4.55	2.2
Andrew Heaney	168.0	9.8	2.5	1.5	.300	74.2 %	4.01	4.15	2.8
Griffin Canning	135.0	9.2	3.0	1.5	.305	72.5 %	4.36	4.43	1.7
Shohei Ohtani	110.0	11.0	3.5	1.2	.304	74.9 %	3.74	3.81	2.2
Patrick Sandoval	66.0	8.5	3.9	1.4	.301	73.3 %	4.37	4.67	0.6
Jose Suarez	47.0	8.2	3.7	1.6	.299	72.3 %	4.77	5.07	0.4
Jaime Barria	19.0	8.1	2.5	1.9	.298	72.1 %	4.87	5.07	0.1
Matt Andriese	19.0	8.3	2.8	1.4	.304	72.5 %	4.29	4.42	0.3
Dillon Peters	9.0	7.1	3.0	1.5	.303	71.9 %	4.68	4.97	0.1
Total	929.0	9.1	3.1	1.5	.302	72.6 %	4.46	4.60	10.9

[Angel Oracle]

I would be elated if the starters average 5 2/3 innings in 2020.

[Hubs]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Teheran will be better, Bundy will be better, Heaney is right on. Canning will be better, Ohtani will be better. Sandoval I think gets more innings. Andriese gets more innings.
 

Julio Teheran	179.0	7.8	3.8	1.8	.301	70.5 %	5.30	5.47	0.5
Dylan Bundy	178.0	9.0	2.7	1.6	.301	72.3 %	4.47	4.55	2.2
Andrew Heaney	168.0	9.8	2.5	1.5	.300	74.2 %	4.01	4.15	2.8
Griffin Canning	135.0	9.2	3.0	1.5	.305	72.5 %	4.36	4.43	1.7
Shohei Ohtani	110.0	11.0	3.5	1.2	.304	74.9 %	3.74	3.81	2.2
Patrick Sandoval	66.0	8.5	3.9	1.4	.301	73.3 %	4.37	4.67	0.6
Jose Suarez	47.0	8.2	3.7	1.6	.299	72.3 %	4.77	5.07	0.4
Jaime Barria	19.0	8.1	2.5	1.9	.298	72.1 %	4.87	5.07	0.1
Matt Andriese	19.0	8.3	2.8	1.4	.304	72.5 %	4.29	4.42	0.3
Dillon Peters	9.0	7.1	3.0	1.5	.303	71.9 %	4.68	4.97	0.1
Total	929.0	9.1	3.1	1.5	.302	72.6 %	4.46	4.60	10.9

This is just over 5 2/3 IP per start on the average. I know that Ausmus had a quick hook, but I look for our starters to really go deeper into games, especially if they go with a true 6 man rotation. At 6 1/3 IP per start average, you'd get 100 more innings from the starters.

Assuming that Teheran, Bundy, and Heaney all get at least 27 starts, they all look good as far as innings go. If they get 30, then the innings go up to 180-190. Lets call all three 180 inning starters, and say they average 29 starts. Canning getting 135 innings is 5 inning average in 27 starts. If you bump that to 6, its 162 innings. Lets round down to 144 over 24 starts. Ohtani at 110 innings is 5 inning average in 22 starts. I think he pitches more innings per starts, but 22-24 is likely at 6 1/3 it's 140-150 innings. Lets say 140 over 22 starts.

That's 830 innings out of the top 5 starters, over 133 starts.

Sandoval getting 10-12 starts wouldn't surprise me, but lets say he goes 12 at 6.1 per that's 66 or 76 innings, so a slight uptick. I think Andriese may surprise, but if he only starts 10-12 as well, lets give him slightly less at 5 2/3 per start, for say 57 to 68 innings. They didn't put Pena in here, and he's likely to get starts. Say 8-10 starts at the minimum, or around 48 innings. I think Barria, Suarez and Peters maybe get 1-2 starts each. Basically non-factors. The next 6 guys in the rotation then start around 27-30 games total, at 180 innings,  and they break 1000 innings from the starting staff. That is a 6.17 average at 1000, so slightly less than 6 1/3.

At a slightly lower team ERA, led mainly by Teheran being 1.5 runs lower, Bundy being closer to 4, Canning being closer to 4, and Ohtani being closer to 3, I figure the team ERA will be closer to 4.2.

Teheran at 3.8 ERA over 31 starts and 186 IP would be at 79 runs. Bundy at a 4.1 ERA over 29 starts would be 183.2 IP , would be at 84 runs. Heaney at 170.1 IP with a 4.01 ERA would be 76 runs. Canning at 144 IP and a 4.00 ERA is 65 runs or so. Ohtani being closer to a 3.2 ERA (or lower) over 140 innings, would be around 48-50 runs. This totals out at 824 IP and say 353 runs.

Sandoval at his numbers above would be fine, but I'm bumping up Andriese and adding Pena to the group, all around the same Sandoval ERA and IP. That means each of these guys giving up around 32 runs in 66 IP on average. So 96 runs over 198 IP for the back end three.

Add the 96 to the 353 and the 198 to the 824 and you end up at 449 over 1022 IP and the starting staff ERA is around 3.95. I think that's a tad optimistic, but add 7% to the above across the board and you're at that 4.2 ish ERA number. That would increase the runs to 480 from the starting staff.

At 1022 IP from the starters, the pen would only have to pick up around 430 IP. This would be the fewest they've pitched in several seasons. Even if you decrease the number of IP from the starters by 7% you're down to 950 IP, which at that original 449 actually comes out similarly to increasing the runs.

So the Pen pitching to their standard 3.85-3.95 ERA over 430-500 IP means that the pen gives up between 184 and 219 ER.

This leads the team as a total to allow around 664-668 earned runs.  Team ERA would sit at the 4.1 range.

Add that to the unearned runs, which is usually low (like 6-9% more) and you end up in the low 700-720 runs range. That's less than 4 1/2 runs per game, which is better than league average. 

Seeing as I have them near the top offensively, around 850 runs scored, That will lead to a 94 win team.

 

 

 

 

[Hubs]

And even using the projections above, the 4.46 ERA from the starters over 929 IP is only around 460 ER. Add 530 IP at a 4 ERA and you've added 235 runs, meaning the team is projected to be around 695 ER, and maybe 750 total runs. If they score the same 850, that's still a 91 win expectation.

And the Angels can score more. Last year, with a month less of Trout, no Rendon, no Adell, down years from our 1B, Upton, and Simmons, and the pathetic offensive showing at Catcher....they scored 769 runs. They were averaging 5+ runs a game through July, but dropped to 4.7 in August, and a dismal 3.28 in September.

5 runs a game is 810, 5.5 is 891 and 6 is 972.

 

[Angel Oracle]

And having a much better coaching staff in place for 2020