Pitcher List on Angels starters in 2020

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

BTW..   

The AL average ERA for SPs last year was 4.76.   http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/127/league/al  

The Angels getting to league average isn't the insurmountable obstacle that some of you may believe...  They need  the two innings eaters to do what they have been doing and for their young guys to pitch to their abilities.

But a 4.76 ERA combined from the SPs would be a world better than the 5.64 they got out of them last year.

 

Nearly a 160 runs against improvement. 

[Inside Pitch]

16 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Nice straw man argument. I said a lot of games will be 7-6. Not all. Not most.

Strad of you think the Angels pitching staff is good, then I'd say the Orioles and Mariners should be pretty average. 

Projections wise....   The bolded numbers are ERA and fWAR respectively*

Mariners    

Marco Gonzales	196.0	6.9	2.4	1.5	.307	71.4 %	4.61	4.77	2.0
Yusei Kikuchi	173.0	7.3	2.9	1.5	.304	71.3 %	4.74	4.89	1.6
Justus Sheffield	148.0	7.9	4.3	1.4	.305	71.9 %	4.80	5.02	0.9
Kendall Graveman	137.0	6.8	2.6	1.5	.314	70.4 %	4.78	4.82	1.2
Justin Dunn	103.0	8.2	3.9	1.6	.302	70.5 %	5.09	5.17	0.8
Nick Margevicius	85.0	6.2	2.7	1.8	.299	70.0 %	5.18	5.40	0.2
Ljay Newsome	55.0	7.0	1.9	2.2	.292	70.8 %	5.27	5.51	0.1
Erik Swanson	19.0	8.8	2.6	1.6	.297	72.7 %	4.45	4.59	0.2
Anthony Misiewicz	18.0	7.1	3.0	1.7	.301	71.3 %	4.93	5.14	0.1
Total	935.0	7.2	3.0	1.6	.305	71.1 %	4.84	4.99	7.2

Orioles

Alex Cobb	181.0	6.4	2.6	1.7	.312	69.8 %	5.17	5.20	1.7
Asher Wojciechowski	141.0	7.8	3.4	2.3	.293	69.9 %	5.83	6.03	0.5
Brandon Bailey	85.0	7.6	4.7	2.0	.299	69.7 %	5.88	6.03	0.2
Bruce Zimmermann	18.0	6.5	4.1	1.8	.302	69.8 %	5.69	5.90	0.1
David Hess	9.0	7.8	3.4	2.1	.300	70.5 %	5.59	5.73	0.1
Dean Kremer	143.0	7.7	4.0	1.9	.300	70.3 %	5.54	5.69	0.7
John Means	183.0	7.0	2.6	2.0	.298	70.8 %	5.33	5.57	1.4
Keegan Akin	55.0	8.1	4.9	2.0	.294	71.0 %	5.74	6.03	0.1
Kohl Stewart	75.0	6.1	4.2	1.5	.309	68.7 %	5.52	5.60	0.4
Michael Baumann	18.0	6.8	4.6	2.0	.297	69.4 %	6.00	6.20	0.0
Total	947.0	7.2	3.5	1.9	.301	70.1 %	5.53	5.69	5.3

Angels

Julio Teheran	179.0	7.8	3.8	1.8	.301	70.5 %	5.30	5.47	0.5
Dylan Bundy	178.0	9.0	2.7	1.6	.301	72.3 %	4.47	4.55	2.2
Andrew Heaney	168.0	9.8	2.5	1.5	.300	74.2 %	4.01	4.15	2.8
Griffin Canning	135.0	9.2	3.0	1.5	.305	72.5 %	4.36	4.43	1.7
Shohei Ohtani	110.0	11.0	3.5	1.2	.304	74.9 %	3.74	3.81	2.2
Patrick Sandoval	66.0	8.5	3.9	1.4	.301	73.3 %	4.37	4.67	0.6
Jose Suarez	47.0	8.2	3.7	1.6	.299	72.3 %	4.77	5.07	0.4
Jaime Barria	19.0	8.1	2.5	1.9	.298	72.1 %	4.87	5.07	0.1
Matt Andriese	19.0	8.3	2.8	1.4	.304	72.5 %	4.29	4.42	0.3
Dillon Peters	9.0	7.1	3.0	1.5	.303	71.9 %	4.68	4.97	0.1
Total	929.0	9.1	3.1	1.5	.302	72.6 %	4.46	4.60	10.9

Don't look now but the Angels staff is closer to being in the A's class than it is the M's and Orioles..   And that's with the usual doom and gloom with Teheran.

Athletics

Mike Fiers	191.0	6.9	2.8	1.7	.303	69.2 %	5.21	5.26	1.2
Frankie Montas	186.0	8.5	2.9	1.2	.306	71.8 %	4.17	4.19	3.0
Sean Manaea	162.0	7.4	2.7	1.4	.304	71.0 %	4.58	4.69	1.7
Jesus Luzardo	141.0	9.2	3.1	1.3	.302	73.5 %	3.98	4.14	2.6
Chris Bassitt	113.0	8.3	3.1	1.3	.299	70.9 %	4.38	4.47	1.6
A.J. Puk	103.0	9.8	4.0	1.3	.300	73.8 %	4.13	4.33	1.7
Daniel Mengden	38.0	6.7	2.9	1.6	.304	69.9 %	5.02	5.09	0.3
Parker Dunshee	18.0	7.2	3.4	1.8	.295	69.4 %	5.37	5.51	0.0
Total	951.0	8.1	3.0	1.4	.303	71.4 %	4.50	4.59	12.2

Twins

Jose Berrios	201.0	8.6	2.7	1.5	.307	71.2 %	4.49	4.47	3.1
Jake Odorizzi	172.0	9.4	3.2	1.6	.302	72.6 %	4.58	4.63	2.3
Homer Bailey	153.0	7.2	2.9	1.6	.308	69.9 %	5.02	5.01	1.4
Michael Pineda	129.0	8.2	2.2	1.6	.311	71.0 %	4.63	4.54	1.7
Rich Hill	94.0	9.4	3.2	1.5	.302	72.5 %	4.42	4.52	1.3
Randy Dobnak	85.0	6.0	2.7	1.5	.310	69.0 %	5.03	5.05	0.8
Devin Smeltzer	56.0	7.2	2.7	1.8	.301	71.0 %	5.03	5.20	0.4
Lewis Thorpe	28.0	9.2	3.1	1.6	.302	73.3 %	4.40	4.53	0.4
Sean Poppen	18.0	7.4	3.9	1.4	.310	69.5 %	5.07	5.08	0.1
Total	937.0	8.2	2.9	1.6	.306	71.1 %	4.69	4.71	11.5

[Stradling]

Teheran made 33 starts last year.  He averaged 5 1/3  innings.  In 25 of those starts he gave up 3 ER or less.  

Bundy made 30 starts last year.  He averaged 5 1/3 innings.  In 22 of those starts he gave up 3 ER or less.  

So in 15 starts out of 63 starts they gave up 4 runs or more.  

They pitched 5 innings or more in 51 if 63 starts.  

[Docwaukee]

@Second Base

Scotty - I get that you don't like our rotation.  But you've thrown some numbers out trying to support your argument as to why and they are laughably off base.  That should clue you in as to how our starting pitching isn't terrible but more 'meh' which I think most would agree with.  I don't think one person here would argue that they're good but they will argue if you state they're terrible and then spout BS to support it.  

If you want to believe they'll be terrible then you don't need my or anyone else's permission.  But if so, bear in mind that such an opinion flies in the face of what the actual numbers support.  

And for the record, the starting pitching isn't as good as I want them to be but there's a big difference between that and them sucking.  

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

I think we can expect to see a lot of 7-6 scores in Anaheim this year.

nope. people say that all the time, but it's never true.

 

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm basically at that point where every fart could be a shart. I'm playing Russian Roulette in my pants.

Just move your hand.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

@Second Base

Scotty - I get that you don't like our rotation.  But you've thrown some numbers out trying to support your argument as to why and they are laughably off base.  That should clue you in as to how our starting pitching isn't terrible but more 'meh' which I think most would agree with.  I don't think one person here would argue that they're good but they will argue if you state they're terrible and then spout BS to support it.  

If you want to believe they'll be terrible then you don't need my or anyone else's permission.  But if so, bear in mind that such an opinion flies in the face of what the actual numbers support.  

And for the record, the starting pitching isn't as good as I want them to be but there's a big difference between that and them sucking.  

We'll let's just go with a basic one. FIP.

Dylan Bundy - 4.73

Julio Teheran - 4.66

Andrew Heaney - 4.63

Griffin Canning - 4.37

Shohei Ohtani - 3.57 (2018)

Patrick Sandoval - 4.59

Average - 4.42

Thank goodness for Ohtani, because without him, it's a lot uglier.

Now let's go with Minnesota. (Again, I go with Minnesota because they are closest to the Angels in talent and team construction).

Berrios 3.85, Odorizzi 3.36, Bailey 4.11, Pineda 4.02, 4.10

Average - 3.88

We can do the same thing with every single last contender in the AL, NY, BOS, TB, CLE, CHI, TEX, OAK, HOU..... And the end result will be the same. The Angels will come out worse, and in most cases like this one I just showed you, it'll be by a fairly significant margin.

I still think the Angels will win in the high 80's. The simple reason why is because I believe they'll have the second best offense in the AL, the best defense in the AL, and a strong back end of the bullpen in Robles, Middleton and Buttrey. I also believe that either before the season starts or at the trade deadline, they're going to acquire a mid rotation starter, hopefully someone like Jon Gray. 

You wanted numbers. There's numbers.

 

 

[mmc]

Reports out of Minnesota are that they’re very interested in Taijuan Walker, so that wouldn’t help.

[Drink More Yakult]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

We'll let's just go with a basic one. FIP.

Dylan Bundy - 4.73

Julio Teheran - 4.66

Andrew Heaney - 4.63

Griffin Canning - 4.37

Shohei Ohtani - 3.57 (2018)

Patrick Sandoval - 4.59

Average - 4.42

Thank goodness for Ohtani, because without him, it's a lot uglier.

Now let's go with Minnesota. (Again, I go with Minnesota because they are closest to the Angels in talent and team construction).

Berrios 3.85, Odorizzi 3.36, Bailey 4.11, Pineda 4.02, 4.10

Average - 3.88

We can do the same thing with every single last contender in the AL, NY, BOS, TB, CLE, CHI, TEX, OAK, HOU..... And the end result will be the same. The Angels will come out worse, and in most cases like this one I just showed you, it'll be by a fairly significant margin.

I still think the Angels will win in the high 80's. The simple reason why is because I believe they'll have the second best offense in the AL, the best defense in the AL, and a strong back end of the bullpen in Robles, Middleton and Buttrey. I also believe that either before the season starts or at the trade deadline, they're going to acquire a mid rotation starter, hopefully someone like Jon Gray. 

You wanted numbers. There's numbers.

 

 

That looks a lot better than the 6 ERA you were predicting earlier.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Projections wise....   The bolded numbers are ERA and fWAR respectively*

Mariners    

Marco Gonzales	196.0	6.9	2.4	1.5	.307	71.4 %	4.61	4.77	2.0
Yusei Kikuchi	173.0	7.3	2.9	1.5	.304	71.3 %	4.74	4.89	1.6
Justus Sheffield	148.0	7.9	4.3	1.4	.305	71.9 %	4.80	5.02	0.9
Kendall Graveman	137.0	6.8	2.6	1.5	.314	70.4 %	4.78	4.82	1.2
Justin Dunn	103.0	8.2	3.9	1.6	.302	70.5 %	5.09	5.17	0.8
Nick Margevicius	85.0	6.2	2.7	1.8	.299	70.0 %	5.18	5.40	0.2
Ljay Newsome	55.0	7.0	1.9	2.2	.292	70.8 %	5.27	5.51	0.1
Erik Swanson	19.0	8.8	2.6	1.6	.297	72.7 %	4.45	4.59	0.2
Anthony Misiewicz	18.0	7.1	3.0	1.7	.301	71.3 %	4.93	5.14	0.1
Total	935.0	7.2	3.0	1.6	.305	71.1 %	4.84	4.99	7.2

Orioles

Alex Cobb	181.0	6.4	2.6	1.7	.312	69.8 %	5.17	5.20	1.7
Asher Wojciechowski	141.0	7.8	3.4	2.3	.293	69.9 %	5.83	6.03	0.5
Brandon Bailey	85.0	7.6	4.7	2.0	.299	69.7 %	5.88	6.03	0.2
Bruce Zimmermann	18.0	6.5	4.1	1.8	.302	69.8 %	5.69	5.90	0.1
David Hess	9.0	7.8	3.4	2.1	.300	70.5 %	5.59	5.73	0.1
Dean Kremer	143.0	7.7	4.0	1.9	.300	70.3 %	5.54	5.69	0.7
John Means	183.0	7.0	2.6	2.0	.298	70.8 %	5.33	5.57	1.4
Keegan Akin	55.0	8.1	4.9	2.0	.294	71.0 %	5.74	6.03	0.1
Kohl Stewart	75.0	6.1	4.2	1.5	.309	68.7 %	5.52	5.60	0.4
Michael Baumann	18.0	6.8	4.6	2.0	.297	69.4 %	6.00	6.20	0.0
Total	947.0	7.2	3.5	1.9	.301	70.1 %	5.53	5.69	5.3

Angels

Julio Teheran	179.0	7.8	3.8	1.8	.301	70.5 %	5.30	5.47	0.5
Dylan Bundy	178.0	9.0	2.7	1.6	.301	72.3 %	4.47	4.55	2.2
Andrew Heaney	168.0	9.8	2.5	1.5	.300	74.2 %	4.01	4.15	2.8
Griffin Canning	135.0	9.2	3.0	1.5	.305	72.5 %	4.36	4.43	1.7
Shohei Ohtani	110.0	11.0	3.5	1.2	.304	74.9 %	3.74	3.81	2.2
Patrick Sandoval	66.0	8.5	3.9	1.4	.301	73.3 %	4.37	4.67	0.6
Jose Suarez	47.0	8.2	3.7	1.6	.299	72.3 %	4.77	5.07	0.4
Jaime Barria	19.0	8.1	2.5	1.9	.298	72.1 %	4.87	5.07	0.1
Matt Andriese	19.0	8.3	2.8	1.4	.304	72.5 %	4.29	4.42	0.3
Dillon Peters	9.0	7.1	3.0	1.5	.303	71.9 %	4.68	4.97	0.1
Total	929.0	9.1	3.1	1.5	.302	72.6 %	4.46	4.60	10.9

Don't look now but the Angels staff is closer to being in the A's class than it is the M's and Orioles..   And that's with the usual doom and gloom with Teheran.

Athletics

Mike Fiers	191.0	6.9	2.8	1.7	.303	69.2 %	5.21	5.26	1.2
Frankie Montas	186.0	8.5	2.9	1.2	.306	71.8 %	4.17	4.19	3.0
Sean Manaea	162.0	7.4	2.7	1.4	.304	71.0 %	4.58	4.69	1.7
Jesus Luzardo	141.0	9.2	3.1	1.3	.302	73.5 %	3.98	4.14	2.6
Chris Bassitt	113.0	8.3	3.1	1.3	.299	70.9 %	4.38	4.47	1.6
A.J. Puk	103.0	9.8	4.0	1.3	.300	73.8 %	4.13	4.33	1.7
Daniel Mengden	38.0	6.7	2.9	1.6	.304	69.9 %	5.02	5.09	0.3
Parker Dunshee	18.0	7.2	3.4	1.8	.295	69.4 %	5.37	5.51	0.0
Total	951.0	8.1	3.0	1.4	.303	71.4 %	4.50	4.59	12.2

Twins

Jose Berrios	201.0	8.6	2.7	1.5	.307	71.2 %	4.49	4.47	3.1
Jake Odorizzi	172.0	9.4	3.2	1.6	.302	72.6 %	4.58	4.63	2.3
Homer Bailey	153.0	7.2	2.9	1.6	.308	69.9 %	5.02	5.01	1.4
Michael Pineda	129.0	8.2	2.2	1.6	.311	71.0 %	4.63	4.54	1.7
Rich Hill	94.0	9.4	3.2	1.5	.302	72.5 %	4.42	4.52	1.3
Randy Dobnak	85.0	6.0	2.7	1.5	.310	69.0 %	5.03	5.05	0.8
Devin Smeltzer	56.0	7.2	2.7	1.8	.301	71.0 %	5.03	5.20	0.4
Lewis Thorpe	28.0	9.2	3.1	1.6	.302	73.3 %	4.40	4.53	0.4
Sean Poppen	18.0	7.4	3.9	1.4	.310	69.5 %	5.07	5.08	0.1
Total	937.0	8.2	2.9	1.6	.306	71.1 %	4.69	4.71	11.5

Two things.

1. FWAR (bWAR for that matter too) are garbage when it comes to valuing pitching, but point taken.

2. These projections absolutely suck, particularly on Oakland. Montas was amazing last year, Manaea looks like an ace in the making, Luzardo is the most dominant young SP I've seen in AA/AAA since Julio Urias, which is only like 1-2 years, so not much time, and AJ Puk was the 6th overall selection for a reason, and looked awfully convincing in the bullpen last year.

Bold Prediction: I think the A's overtake the Astros and win the division.

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Drink More Yakult said:

That looks a lot better than the 6 ERA you were predicting earlier.

6 ERA? When did I predict that for the starting rotation?

[rafibomb]

So somehow our rotation will be worse this year than last. That doesn't add up but awesome.

[rafibomb]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

6 ERA? When did I predict that for the starting rotation?

I think he's referring to this

Quote

I figure guys like Bundy, Teheran, Heaney and Canning will be good for 5.2 innings a night and 4 ER

4 ER per 5.2 innings pitched is a 6.92 ERA.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, Second Base said:

6 ERA? When did I predict that for the starting rotation?

You predicted worse than a 6 ERA for the starters.  And predicted a 6 ERA for the entire staff. 

[UndertheHalo]

@Chuckster70 make this guy the grand marshal of AW fan fest. 

[Pancake Bear]

19 minutes ago, Drink More Yakult said:

That looks a lot better than the 6 ERA you were predicting earlier.

Scotty has been all over the place in this thread. 

[Docwaukee]

20 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Two things.

1. FWAR (bWAR for that matter too) are garbage when it comes to valuing pitching, but point taken.

2. These projections absolutely suck, particularly on Oakland. Montas was amazing last year, Manaea looks like an ace in the making, Luzardo is the most dominant young SP I've seen in AA/AAA since Julio Urias, which is only like 1-2 years, so not much time, and AJ Puk was the 6th overall selection for a reason, and looked awfully convincing in the bullpen last year.

Bold Prediction: I think the A's overtake the Astros and win the division.

you need to stop.  you're actually embarrassing yourself.  

you spouted off some half-assed math that was way off.  

then you comped us to another team using a 1yr sample size with FIP

then you claimed a projection system - which uses FIP - is dog shit.  

and since that projection system didn't fit your narrative, your degradation of it was based on your opinion of a couple of guys.  

the inconsistency of your rational is mind numbing.  it's so bad that I think that @Stradling gave up.  

[Chuck]

I think Scotty got infected by the Twittervirus.

Most every Angels fan that I've seen on twitter believes our pitching sucks and they're waiting for the Angels to trade for a legit starter so they can believe the team has a chance to compete. 

Stay off Twitter Scotty. 

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Which is why it will be dismissed at hello by many here.

Unless you are used to this kind of a breakdown it can encourage readers to skip to the analysis summary and decide which of the four scenarios were offered for each pitcher. Then use personal prejudices to decided which spectrum is the most probable.

By doing that you can miss where the pitchers could improve upon their historic totals. I'll go with half or more full glass here, the changeover in management and coaching should help the younger arms still searching for their true game.

Which is the greatest volatility in determining how the young arms will perform this season. They can break out or breakdown but at least this season, early on, they will have a support staff that can communicate with them and after that it will be about executing the plan instead of trying to understand it. 

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Decent debate on if the rotation sucks or not.

I am going to go with it sucks until it actually proves that it doesn’t suck.

This was my argument with the Tyler Skaggs supporters that kept talking about peripherals and potential. Until he actually pitched to those indicators he still sucked. With luck the Angels rotation the season won't be an argument about potential over performance. 

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

We'll let's just go with a basic one. FIP.

Okay, Jerry.

[tdawg87]

You guys murdered Scotty.

[Chuck]

Someone post the Barbaro youtube.

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You guys murdered Scotty.

[Second Base]

54 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

you need to stop.  you're actually embarrassing yourself.  

you spouted off some half-assed math that was way off.  

then you comped us to another team using a 1yr sample size with FIP

then you claimed a projection system - which uses FIP - is dog shit.  

and since that projection system didn't fit your narrative, your degradation of it was based on your opinion of a couple of guys.  

the inconsistency of your rational is mind numbing.  it's so bad that I think that @Stradling gave up.  

I used the most recent year for FIP, doc. Just because it doesn't fit your homer narrative that we are amazing doesn't mean it's wrong. It's the most up to date actual performance information available. 

And you're defending a system that says Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Jesus Lazardo and AJ Puk won't be better than than Ohtani, Heaney, Bundy, Teheran and Canning. 

If this were a common sense debate, you'd get laughed off stage. Why? Because that's fucking stupid and everyone who knows anything about pitching knows it. The Angels rotation isn't as good as the A's, it the Twins. Or the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Indians, Astros or Rangers for that matter.

If you can't wrap your mind around that, then I just feel sorry for you. The Angels rotation just isn't that good. The only lense in which it is that good is a Rosy red one that requires you to squint. You ask for numbers, I give them to you. And now I'm offering common knowledge and you're still blind to the truth.