Ringer Article on 2020 Angels Outlook

[tdawg87]

We need Heaney to pitch like he did in 2018, Ohtani to give us 120 innings at least, Canning to take a big step forward, Teheran to pick up where he left off, Bundy to take a step forward, and our young guys to improve. 

All of these are entirely possible, even all at once. But it sure would be nice to have another good pitcher to throw in the mix.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I have them at about 87 wins right now. If all the things @tdawg87 mentioned in the post above me happen then we are looking at 94, 95 wins. There is upside in the pen and on the offensive side as well. They really could us a higher upside arm to slot in at the top half of the rotation. Someone who is risky enough to come cheap but good enough to make a big difference if healthy and effective - someone who can push 87 wins into 90+ which is where we need to finish to be really competitive. 

[mulwin444]

17 minutes ago, ettin said:

For example if the Mets are not in contention at the deadline there may be 2-4 good starters on the block from that team alone, not to mention any other teams that might be out of the running.

I think that's definitely a possibility with either Syndegaard, Matz, and Stroman 

[Angel Oracle]

21 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Gibson would have been a great pickup. Going forward I think he will be a lot better than Bundy. And yes I know how old he is.

I look at it the other way around.

Gibson has had one season in the past 4, where his WHIP was under 1.44 and ERA was under 4.84.    He does give you innings normally (only once under 158 innings in the past 5 years).

Bundy also gives you innings (3 straight seasons of at least 161 innings).   Even though his ERA was 4.79 in 2019, he ditched one problematic pitch after the ASB, and proceeded to have an ERA in the low 4.00s after the ASB while making all but two of his post-ASB starts in hitting friendly parks.   He also only allowed 8 HRs after the ASB, after allowing 21 HRs before it.   He's definitely a candidate to realize previous potential, with Callaway now guiding him. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

And yes, I did read that, and then you decided to basically change your opinion in basically your next post.  I agreed with your longer post, but then when defending your position you left out all the stuff before and posted simply about the additions of Bundy and Teheran to paint the staff worse off than it is.  

As for your newbie comment, it’s ridiculous for you to say that shit when you have been so hellbent on how good the farm is or our prospects are and defend that above all else.  Then you stand on a soap box about not being able to talk poorly about the Angels off season.  Its the same thing but different.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, mulwin444 said:

Easy, Captain Hyperbole...1.  I don't think they're awesome 2.  I don't think Billy is the best GM in the business 3.  Pessimists often view themselves as realists and optimists as slavish nut-swingers...and vice-versa.

Let's keep it in context, my comments are mostly about the Ringer using projected pitcher WAR to criticize the Angels' offseason pitching acquisitions.  Given that pitching WAR is problematic, and using projected pitching WAR even more so, I don't see how my comments are that incendiary.

Also, just to give you my own mindset in regards to this team and their moves, I think they are a 85-90 win team right now...you know, kinda where you put them as well.

For me, their remaining needs are a mid-rotation starter and a solid back-end reliever...they have pitching depth but it's all middle-to-bottom heavy in talent and they need to push that middle upward if they want to crack 90 wins.  

I was referring to others. 

[beatlesrule]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

As for your newbie comment, it’s ridiculous for you to say that shit when you have been so hellbent on how good the farm is or our prospects are and defend that above all else.

This stood out to me as well. He has even admitted to thinking pretty much all the prospects are the next coming of Mike Trout.

[kevinb]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Honestly, I feel bad for the newbies that don't understand AW culture. If they don't agree that the Angels are effing awesome and Billy Eppler is the best GM in the business, they're under immediate scrutiny. Stick around long enough and you learn how to navigate it, but the lack of acceptance of anything other than an optimistic view here can be suffocating. 

I believe without significant pitching additions, the Angels are an 87-89 win team in 2020.

I've never been accused of being a homer or being someone who is super optimistic with out cause. I just think with the pitching upgrades the Angels have made and the offensive/defensive additions they've made that this team is a playoff team. With Rendon and Trout this team can go places, as of right now I think this is a playoff team and can win the division. 

[rafibomb]

I'm sorry but Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran are obvious improvements over the rotation we had last year. Are they going to completely fix our rotation? No, I still think we are one more starter away from it being "fixed". However, not admitting they are an improvement is pretty dumb af or you did not pay attention to our starters last season at all.

[Second Base]

28 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

This stood out to me as well. He has even admitted to thinking pretty much all the prospects are the next coming of Mike Trout.

That was a joke.

[Bronson]

7 hours ago, wopphil said:

I just looked at Gray's numbers again, and he is much better than I think I had realized. I don't think I would hesitate to move Marsh and others for him.

Yeah if you can get Gray for Marsh, Rengifo and maybe Barria or Sandoval you have to do it. Get him out of Colorado and he’s an ace. Especially in our ballpark.

[beatlesrule]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

That was a joke.

Well, you still overrate like every prospect.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

Well, you still overrate like every prospect.

And yet my assessments are now being questioned because they're too conservative. 

[stormngt]

8 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Nope. Bundy Teheran and Ohtani. Not to mention improvement by the young guys getting experience from last year to this year. I think right now their pitching staff is probably middle of the road. Add that to a top 5 offense, defense and a bullpen that I trust in Eppler and I think this team is a playoff team next year with out question. Subtract Cahil and Harvey with those three guys and hey I think this team is right there in the thick of things. 

Help me out.  Is January 2020 Bundy really better than January 2019 Cahill.  We know Cahill sucked but we didnt know that in January 2019.  I know Ohtani projects more than Skaggd but I am not really sure the pitching staff is predictably better than 12 months ago.

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Help me out.  Is January 2020 Bundy really better than January 2019 Cahill.  We know Cahill sucked but we didnt know that in January 2019.  I know Ohtani projects more than Skaggd but I am not really sure the pitching staff is predictably better than 12 months ago.

I see your point but this team would have to be historically unlucky to reach the same level of misery that the 2019 staff did. 

[Pancake Bear]

6 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Help me out.  Is January 2020 Bundy really better than January 2019 Cahill.  We know Cahill sucked but we didnt know that in January 2019.  I know Ohtani projects more than Skaggd but I am not really sure the pitching staff is predictably better than 12 months ago.

Cahill had pitched over 100 innings twice in the previous five years. He hit 110 in those two seasons. He was basically a reliever/spot starter that we tried to push back into the rotation. It was a bad idea as it turned out. He did okay in relief, iirc, after we got him out of the rotation. 

Bundy has at least 160 innings each of the last three seasons. Also, he had a sub-5 ERA in the AL East while pitching for a garbage team. His only time in the last three years over 5 ERA was in 2018. The other four teams in his division ranked 1st, 4th, 6th, and 8th in all of baseball - not just the AL - in offense (using wRC+). In other words, he had a ridiculously hard division. 

He eats innings and does it while giving up fewer runs than most of the guys we used last year. So, yeah, he’s an upgrade. Our defense is also better, fwiw. 

[stormngt]

9 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Cahill had pitched over 100 innings twice in the previous five years. He hit 110 in those two seasons. He was basically a reliever/spot starter that we tried to push back into the rotation. It was a bad idea as it turned out. He did okay in relief, iirc, after we got him out of the rotation. 

Bundy has at least 160 innings each of the last three seasons. Also, he had a sub-5 ERA in the AL East while pitching for a garbage team. His only time in the last three years over 5 ERA was in 2018. The other four teams in his division ranked 1st, 4th, 6th, and 8th in all of baseball - not just the AL - in offense (using wRC+). In other words, he had a ridiculously hard division. 

He eats innings and does it while giving up fewer runs than most of the guys we used last year. So, yeah, he’s an upgrade. Our defense is also better, fwiw. 

So the difference between Cahill and Bundy preseason projections is durability?

[stormngt]

18 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I see your point but this team would have to be historically unlucky to reach the same level of misery that the 2019 staff did. 

I think we have historically been unlucky since 2015

[Pancake Bear]

17 minutes ago, stormngt said:

So the difference between Cahill and Bundy preseason projections is durability?

Partly. 160 vs 100 innings. 

Also, he’s pitching in, if anything, an easier position, albeit similar to his past few years. Cahill was trying to switch from long relief to starting. 

Also, those extra innings? Minor leaguers worse than Cahill.

[Drink More Yakult]

27 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Partly. 160 vs 100 innings. 

Also, he’s pitching in, if anything, an easier position, albeit similar to his past few years. Cahill was trying to switch from long relief to starting. 

Also, those extra innings? Minor leaguers worse than Cahill.

Dilly Pickles is gonna break out this year!

[Stradling]

11 hours ago, Second Base said:

And yet my assessments are now being questioned because they're too conservative. 

Too conservative?  No.  Your list of guys you wouldn’t trade is ridiculous. Which basically has it where in your mind whatever trade Eppler makes will be an overpay instead of an equitable trade.  

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Too conservative?  No.  Your list of guys you wouldn’t trade is ridiculous. Which basically has it where in your mind whatever trade Eppler makes will be an overpay instead of an equitable trade.  

Oh so the problem isn't my assessment of prospects, it's my willingness to trade the prospects whose assessments are apparently fine. Which contradicts itself because if the assessments are fine, then I should have a it good idea on the value of these prospects.

It's so awesome that my evaluation of minor league players lives up to  @Stradling vast knowledge of young players and their abilities  So cool.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Second Base

[mulwin444]

Looking at our recent past in regards to trading prospects for established MLB players:

Under Reagins: 

Sean Rodriguez, Matthew Sweeney, and Alex Torres for Scott Kazmir - Meh for Bleghhhhhhh.  Rodriguez has had a couple decent seasons as a utility infielder and Alex Torres was good for a couple season as a reliever but neither amounted to much.  Kazmir was decent for good for 6 starts in 2009 then completely fell apart.

Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs for Dan Haren - It felt brutal then in cost even if the timing made sense and Haren only really having a solid season and a half before declining in 2012 during the playoff hunt made it a bit worse.  

Under Dipoto:

Ariel Pena, Johnny Hellweg, and Jean Segura for Zack Greinke - Pena and Hellweg didn't amount to much but Segura has since had a couple of All Star seasons for different teams since the trade.  Hurt even more that Greinke not surprisingly took the most cash a team could offer the next offseason and left after 13 decent start

Pestano for Clevinger - The one most invoked in terms of "getting owned" in a deal, this was kind of meh when it happened because Clevinger, while talented, had only made it to A+ ball and put up a 4.41 ERA 1.371 WHIP at age 23.  Obviously, it's been lopsided since then.

Sean O'Sullivan and Will Smith for Alberto Callaspo - Alberto put up 7.6 WAR in what amounted to 3 seasons with the Angels while Will Smith has emerged as a terrific reliever.  Not a terrible result on either side.

Tyler Chatwood for Chris Ianetta - As a catcher mostly known for his offense, Ianetta played well putting up 6.2 WAR in 4 seasons while Chatwood has still been searching for some consistency in his results.

Taylor Lindsey, Elliot Morris, R. J. Alvarez, Jose Rondon for Huston Street and Trevor Gott - Trade allowed us to coin the term "Rondons" for what amounts to the prospect being the equivalent of magic beans.  Four Rondons traded for Street who was part magical, decent and awful in three seasons with the Angels while said Rondons have done nothing.  Also, Gott had a good enough 2015 to allow him to be traded for someone else the next season.

Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk for David Freese and Fernando Salas - Despite playing 255 games over 2 seasons, it always felt like Freese was injured and he put up the quietest 3.9 WAR in memory.  Fernando Salas was mostly known for disappointing Angels' fans.  On the flip side, Bourjos never came close to matching his 4.9 WAR 2011 season and Grichuk has emerged as a essentially a 2 WAR OFer that will fill a roster spot on a sub-.500 team.  In the end, nobody got what they wanted but neither were impactful.

Jordan Walden for Tommy Hansen - Neither worked out for either team.

Under Eppler:

Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, and Eric Aybar for Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno - A little confession, I didn't like this trade at the time as it seemed we were good with Aybar at SS and really needed SP but hard to argue with the results since.  Simmons has put up a 20.2 WAR since 2016 and Newcomb is a reliever in ATL.

Trevor Gott and Michael Brady for Yunel Escobar - Gott has been mostly hit and miss since the trade but he's young enough to turn a corner at some point while Escobar was a decent fill-in despite just being an odd character in general.  Seemed like a decent overall trade then and it seemed to age well.

Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez for Justin Upton - Despite some mixed results from Upton since being acquired in 2017, Eppler gave up a pitcher who retired after 1 start with Detroit's AA affiliate and another who is 21 in A+ ball sporting a 3.77 ERA...not a bad price for a 4 WAR player.

Conor Lillis-White for Tommy LaStella - LaStella broke out offensively for the Angels in 2019 while Lillis-White broke out his lawn chair.

 

So, in the end, a majority of the Rondons we hold so dearly will likely not amount to much more than AA/AAA fodder.  While you shouldn't just give them away, there no reason not to pull the trigger when the deal makes sense in context of your team's current situation.

Edited January 9, 2020 by mulwin444

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Oh so the problem isn't my assessment of prospects, it's my willingness to trade the prospects whose assessments are apparently fine. Which contradicts itself because if the assessments are fine, then I should have a it good idea on the value of these prospects.

It's so awesome that my evaluation of minor league players lives up to  @Stradling vast knowledge of young players and their abilities  So cool.

Yea that’s the issue here, not you being so in love with your opinion that it makes you laughable.  

[Second Base]

39 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea that’s the issue here, not you being so in love with your opinion that it makes you laughable.  

See now that's unfair! If your ideas didn't suck so hard, I wouldn't have to come up with my own, and thus favor my own over yours.