Ringer Article on 2020 Angels Outlook

[East Coast Bias]

Came across this Ringer.com article which provides a good summary of the Angels offseason and prospects for 2020.  Wish more was done to shore up the pitching woes but I can't wait to see this offense in action.  Go Halos! 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2020/1/8/21056186/los-angeles-angels-pitching-needs-julio-teheran-dylan-bundy-mike-trout-anthony-rendon

 

 

[wopphil]

They need one more starter. I am optimistic they will still get one. If not, they have kept the farm intact and can target someone in June if it is still a need.

[Second Base]

That's a pretty fair assessment. The sheet volume of pitchers that didn't sign with the Angels, a pitching-needy team is astounding. There is some potential here. Winning games 10-8 counts just as much as winning them 4-2. But it's undoubtedly been a disappointing winter. 

All hope isn't lost. Maybe the Angels offense and bullpen will be that good. Maybe they manage to land another good starting pitcher via trade and don't have to give up Adell, Marsh or Adams. Maybe the team stays healthy for once.

Edited January 8, 2020 by Second Base

[mulwin444]

This is dumb:

"Let’s see by listing the free-agent pitchers who have signed a contract this winter, ordered by projected 2020 WAR () from FanGraphs.We’ll stop when we reach one who signed with the Angels:

Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Kevin Gausman, Cole Hamels, Josh Lindblom, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Brett Anderson, Michael Pineda, Adam Wainwright, Martín Pérez, Homer Bailey, Tanner Roark, Jordan Lyles, Rich Hill, Kendall Graveman, Gio González, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Tyler Anderson, Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz, Chris Martin, Blake Treinen, Jake Diekman, Jimmy Nelson, Julio Teheran."

Let's see...Gibson (5 starter), Gausman (was awful last season), Lindblom (an unknown), Porcello (trash), Miley (5 starter), Anderson (has pitched 175 IP 3 times - 2009, 2016, 2019), Pineda (PED user with history of elbow and shoulder issues), Wainwright (38 amd injury prone), Perez (awful), Bailey (meh), Roark (blah), Lyles (once a bad starter, then a decent reliever, trying to start again), Hill (seriously?), Graveman (7 shitty starts in 2019), Gonzalez (still hasn't signed), Betances (reliever), Anderson (5 shitty starts in 2019), Smith (reliever), Pomeranz (reliever), Martin (meh reliever), Treinen (reliever), Diekman (bad reliever), Nelson (injury prone)...

Talk about a padded list...am I supposed to take this article seriously after this?

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

This is dumb:

"Let’s see by listing the free-agent pitchers who have signed a contract this winter, ordered by projected 2020 WAR () from FanGraphs.We’ll stop when we reach one who signed with the Angels:

Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Kevin Gausman, Cole Hamels, Josh Lindblom, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Brett Anderson, Michael Pineda, Adam Wainwright, Martín Pérez, Homer Bailey, Tanner Roark, Jordan Lyles, Rich Hill, Kendall Graveman, Gio González, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Tyler Anderson, Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz, Chris Martin, Blake Treinen, Jake Diekman, Jimmy Nelson, Julio Teheran."

Let's see...Gibson (5 starter), Gausman (was awful last season), Lindblom (an unknown), Porcello (trash), Miley (5 starter), Anderson (has pitched 175 IP 3 times - 2009, 2016, 2019), Pineda (PED user with history of elbow and shoulder issues), Wainwright (38 amd injury prone), Perez (awful), Bailey (meh), Roark (blah), Lyles (once a bad starter, then a decent reliever, trying to start again), Hill (seriously?), Graveman (7 shitty starts in 2019), Gonzalez (still hasn't signed), Betances (reliever), Anderson (5 shitty starts in 2019), Smith (reliever), Pomeranz (reliever), Martin (meh reliever), Treinen (reliever), Diekman (bad reliever), Nelson (injury prone)...

Talk about a padded list...am I supposed to take this article seriously after this?

I have it on good authority that it’s a “pretty fair assessment”. 

[wopphil]

The outlook of this team would change dramatically with the addition of one more starter. A healthy David Price or Jon Gray would do wonders to improve things, and a trade like that could happen at any moment.

[kevinb]

Angels will win the division. This pitching staff as of today is enough. 

[mulwin444]

8 minutes ago, wopphil said:

The outlook of this team would change dramatically with the addition of one more starter. A healthy David Price or Jon Gray would do wonders to improve things, and a trade like that could happen at any moment.

If we could get 2018's version of David Price, I'd be down for acquiring him but I don't think Boston would be trying to move him if that was the case.  I think he's damaged goods at this point.  I'd love to get Gray but unsure of how much of an overpay it would take.

[eligrba]

13 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Angels will win the division. This pitching staff as of today is enough. 

I agree. The starting pitching just needs to be league average for the Angels to compete for the division.  I think that is a reasonable and attainable goal for the starting pitching. 

[wopphil]

11 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

 I'd love to get Gray but unsure of how much of an overpay it would take.

I just looked at Gray's numbers again, and he is much better than I think I had realized. I don't think I would hesitate to move Marsh and others for him.

[mulwin444]

16 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I just looked at Gray's numbers again, and he is much better than I think I had realized. I don't think I would hesitate to move Marsh and others for him.

Yeah, he's not an ace, and his WHIP is a bit concerning, but I'm expecting Marsh (plus) to be the price for a top of rotation starter in his prime with 2 years left of control.  I think a pitcher would be included in COL asking price as well.  Don't know if Marsh/Sandoval would be enough...

[wopphil]

18 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Don't know if Marsh/Sandoval would be enough...

This is exactly what I was thinking. I think that is a big price to pay for Gray, but probably a fair trade. It would be more palatable if we could sign Gray to an extension, but then again the injury concerns are real.

[Sully151]

I like 10-8 games. 

[kevinb]

3 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

The Angels will finish 3rd in the division. Ignoring the pitching will be the team’s downfall. Dylan Bundy is not an improvement. 

Dylan Bundy. Ohtani. Teheran. And the improvement of the young kids will win the division. I don’t know why you failed to mention Ohtani and Teheran but your missing more than half the story. They didn’t just add one pitcher they added 3 new pitchers to the 2019 staff. 

[Second Base]

Jon Gray would cost a lot, but I do think that if he's in Anaheim, he'd be a mid rotation starter at minimum.

[kevinb]

3 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

You can’t rely on a pitcher coming off TJS to be the ace. Especially not with the Angels track record. He shouldn’t even be in the discussion other than him at DH. This rotation blows and everyone knows it deep down. Just take the rose colored lenses off. 

Maybe you don’t have to rely on him to be an ace but u can rely on him giving you quality innings for around 100-130 and Teheran had a mid 3 era last year. Bundy is an upgrade. Canning and the young kids will improve. This rotation is good enough as is. If they add someone else that will just boost the rotation. The offense. Defense and bullpen will be better next year as will the starting rotation with the three new additions. To say the rotation is worse today than it was in 2019 is simply false and you know it. AL West is up for grabs. Angels will be there at the end to take it. 
Theres no such thing as a team having bad luck. Each injury of a pitcher is his own. So to say with the Angels track record is incorrect. I’ve never been accused of rose colored glasses before. Thanks for trying to say I’m a homer. I’m not. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, mulwin444 said:

This is dumb:

"Let’s see by listing the free-agent pitchers who have signed a contract this winter, ordered by projected 2020 WAR () from FanGraphs.We’ll stop when we reach one who signed with the Angels:

Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Kevin Gausman, Cole Hamels, Josh Lindblom, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Brett Anderson, Michael Pineda, Adam Wainwright, Martín Pérez, Homer Bailey, Tanner Roark, Jordan Lyles, Rich Hill, Kendall Graveman, Gio González, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Tyler Anderson, Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz, Chris Martin, Blake Treinen, Jake Diekman, Jimmy Nelson, Julio Teheran."

Let's see...Gibson (5 starter), Gausman (was awful last season), Lindblom (an unknown), Porcello (trash), Miley (5 starter), Anderson (has pitched 175 IP 3 times - 2009, 2016, 2019), Pineda (PED user with history of elbow and shoulder issues), Wainwright (38 amd injury prone), Perez (awful), Bailey (meh), Roark (blah), Lyles (once a bad starter, then a decent reliever, trying to start again), Hill (seriously?), Graveman (7 shitty starts in 2019), Gonzalez (still hasn't signed), Betances (reliever), Anderson (5 shitty starts in 2019), Smith (reliever), Pomeranz (reliever), Martin (meh reliever), Treinen (reliever), Diekman (bad reliever), Nelson (injury prone)...

Talk about a padded list...am I supposed to take this article seriously after this?

Angels fans, yourself included would've thought bringing in guys like Gibson, Gausman, Pineda, etc would've been very savvy moves. 

But since those guys aren't Angels, it's totally because they're all trash.

[mulwin444]

27 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Angels fans, yourself included would've thought bringing in guys like Gibson, Gausman, Pineda, etc would've been very savvy moves. 

But since those guys aren't Angels, it's totally because they're all trash.

No...Gibson, apart from a couple decent seasons (2015 and 2018), has been pretty mediocre (4.52 ERA 1.411 WHIP 94 ERA+ in 1,000+ IP) and was not good last season (4.84 ERA 1.444 WHIP 95 ERA+).  How is committing 3 years and $28 mil better than getting Teheren (3.67 ERA 1.211 WHIP 110 ERA+ in 1,300+ IP, 3.81 ERA 1.323 WHIP 119 ERA+ in 2019) for 1/$9 mil?

Gausman wasn't good last season and ended the season as a reliever and he got the same deal as Teheren.

Pineda would have been a nice get on a one year deal but coming off a PED suspension, not mention missing big swaths of time throughout his career (all of 2012, 2013, 2018, almost all of 2014 and half of 2017), I'm guessing Eppler is looking for something more stable and predictable after 4 years of uncertainty.

Who else?

I mean, seriously, any one of these guys, apart from the relievers on the list, are capable of a decent year but how is adding Miley or Porcello or Anderson or Perez or Bailey or Roark or Hill or Gonzalez better than Teheren and Bundy at this point?  

I know we like get lost in the numbers and indulge in "what if" scenarios but "taking a chance" on guys like Graveman, Nelson, or Tyler Anderson to be healthy and productive or an unknown factor like Lindblom to pan out to something other than a 4 starter is a hell of a gamble after you gambled on Cahill continuing his 2018 season and Harvey returning to form just a year prior.  Not to mention both Teheren and Bundy are under 30 and have been relatively healthy.  

Edited January 8, 2020 by mulwin444

[krAbs]

24 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Angels fans, yourself included would've thought bringing in guys like Gibson, Gausman, Pineda, etc would've been very savvy moves. 

But since those guys aren't Angels, it's totally because they're all trash.

Yeah, the Ringer seems to have the obviously correct take here. Like, you're running a pro MLB team, and you have two options: option 1. understand pitcher value based on a complicated and time tested sabermetric systems which account for performance and peripheral stats along with aging trends from similar players, or option 2. mulwin's gut "how did this guy look last year, and how do I feel about his injury history" system. There are problems with projection system, but they aren't gonna miss 31 times like that.

[Angel Oracle]

Some may think that Billy acts too cautiously with regards to pitchers.

On the flip side though, the Halos haven't had any real bad pitcher contracts since he became GM.    It seems like in this era of questionable pitching health, that it's best to develop your own.   The Halos do have a lot of pitching prospects up through A+ ball, granted none are potential top 50 in MiLB like a few of the Padres' pitching prospects. 

[mulwin444]

2 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Yeah, the Ringer seems to have the obviously correct take here. Like, you're running a pro MLB team, and you have two options: option 1. understand pitcher value based on a complicated and time tested sabermetric systems which account for performance and peripheral stats along with aging trends from similar players, or option 2. mulwin's gut "how did this guy look last year, and how do I feel about his injury history" system. There are problems with projection system, but they aren't gonna miss 31 times like that.

Hmm, all their numbers are available in baseball prospectus so I didn't pull this out of my ass but, sure, I used my "gut" and we should also totally ignore recent injury history and just sort by "projected 2020 pitching WAR" to sign our players because that's how big-pants wearin' GMs do it in the MLB, I reckon.  

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, mulwin444 said:

Hmm, all their numbers are available in baseball prospectus so I didn't pull this out of my ass but, sure, I used my "gut" and we should also totally ignore recent injury history and just sort by "projected 2020 pitching WAR" to sign our players because that's how big-pants wearin' GMs do it in the MLB, I reckon.  

You said ass but.

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

You said ass but.

I did, didn't I?  Ha (snort)

[Stradling]

49 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

The Angels will finish 3rd in the division. Ignoring the pitching will be the team’s downfall. Dylan Bundy is not an improvement. 

He’s an absolute improvement.  

[mulwin444]

And, as we all know, free agent acquisition is not the only method of improving the starting pitching, we still have assets to trade, and we still have payroll room to play with for move of significance.

Considering a possible 6 man rotation, we are looking at Ohtani, Teheren, Heaney, Bundy, Canning and I'm guessing either Pena, Sandoval or Barria as the 6th option/swing man. I believe we absolutely have to acquire a mid-rotation starter at least in order to minimize the innings for both Ohtani and Canning and improve the quality of the weekly starts overall but, considering the last 4 seasons, this is the best the rotation has looked since 2015.