Ringer Article on 2020 Angels Outlook

[krAbs]

9 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Hmm, all their numbers are available in baseball prospectus so I didn't pull this out of my ass but, sure, I used my "gut" and we should also totally ignore recent injury history and just sort by "projected 2020 pitching WAR" to sign our players because that's how big-pants wearin' GMs do it in the MLB, I reckon.  

 

Seriously though, my bigger problem with the list is that they did it based on FA signings entirely and not on trades, so they could avoid showing Bundy (who would slot in around Lindblom on that list).

[floplag]

58 minutes ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

The Angels will finish 3rd in the division. Ignoring the pitching will be the team’s downfall. Dylan Bundy is not an improvement. 

How exactly have they ignored pitching?
And yes both Bundy and Teheran are upgrades.
They have added 2 obvious upgrades by any measure and are likely to add a third before opening day.
Lighten up Francis. 
 

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, krAbs said:

 

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

How exactly have they ignored pitching?
And yes both Bundy and Teheran are upgrades.
They have added 2 obvious upgrades by any measure and are likely to add a third before opening day.
Lighten up Francis. 
 

You haven’t met Vladdy yet?  

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

You haven’t met Vladdy yet?  

Oh i know im just chiming in. 

[beatlesrule]

I will read the article later but this SP is better than last year. At least on paper. It would be nice for it to look even better though. Still time to add.

Oh and Jennifer Lawrence is super hot.

[wopphil]

11 minutes ago, RBM said:

 

But this list is undeniable to some extent so it begs the question, why the heck is Julio Teheran ranked so low? Why does this metric conclude he is going to be worse than many of these guys in 2020? I don't get it.

Because, as you correctly conclude, pitcher WAR and future projections are completely useless metrics.

[Second Base]

I don't understand this narrative that it's one way or the other. Either the Angels have done enough and are going to be great or the Angels off-season is a dismal failure. 

Most people here either already realize or need to realize the truth is somewhere between those two.

There must be no doubt that this rotation has improved. Getting Ohtani back is like acquiring an ace. Heaney is healthy for now. Bundy and Teheran give this staff stability. Upside pitchers like Canning and Sandoval got the rookie mistakes out of their system. 

And at the same time, the staff isn't deep enough. We've seen year in and year out since 2015 that a 10 man staff isn't deep enough for the Angels and right now, they're 8 deep. Ohtani is coming off surgery, Heaney has been a career long question mark, Canning's elbow had been a concern for a couple years, and Bundy and Teheran are back end starters. Pls, there's really no leader amongst those pitchers. There's no bulldog, or ace. Not competitive enough of a staff to win as many ball games as the Angels will need to win.

So the Angels are a contender. They're much improved and should be in the thick of things.

But as it stands right now, they haven't done enough. They came into the off-season with a pitching problem and currently, still have a pitching problem.

[kevinb]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I don't understand this narrative that it's one way or the other. Either the Angels have done enough and are going to be great or the Angels off-season is a dismal failure. 

Most people here either already realize or need to realize the truth is somewhere between those two.

There must be no doubt that this rotation has improved. Getting Ohtani back is like acquiring an ace. Heaney is healthy for now. Bundy and Teheran give this staff stability. Upside pitchers like Canning and Sandoval got the rookie mistakes out of their system. 

And at the same time, the staff isn't deep enough. We've seen year in and year out since 2015 that a 10 man staff isn't deep enough for the Angels and right now, they're 8 deep. Ohtani is coming off surgery, Heaney has been a career long question mark, Canning's elbow had been a concern for a couple years, and Bundy and Teheran are back end starters. Pls, there's really no leader amongst those pitchers. There's no bulldog, or ace. Not competitive enough of a staff to win as many ball games as the Angels will need to win.

So the Angels are a contender. They're much improved and should be in the thick of things.

But as it stands right now, they haven't done enough. They came into the off-season with a pitching problem and currently, still have a pitching problem.

 

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I disagree. I think this is a playoff team as is. The pitching and offense have improved immensely. We don't have a pitching problem we have an ace problem. A lot of teams have an ace problem. We don't have an ace, that is something we will need to rectify if we are going to go far into the playoffs. But really this pitching staff isn't as bad as people think. Astros pitching is getting older, who knows how much longer Grienke and Verlander can hold up. Yankees got Cole. If we get an ace we automatically shoot ourselves up to WS contenders. But right now as it stands we are a playoff team. I think we can go into the 2020 season and see what we have I think people are going to be surprised at how good this team will be. 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

You said ass but.

[Second Base]

10 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I disagree. I think this is a playoff team as is. The pitching and offense have improved immensely. We don't have a pitching problem we have an ace problem. A lot of teams have an ace problem. We don't have an ace, that is something we will need to rectify if we are going to go far into the playoffs. But really this pitching staff isn't as bad as people think. Astros pitching is getting older, who knows how much longer Grienke and Verlander can hold up. Yankees got Cole. If we get an ace we automatically shoot ourselves up to WS contenders. But right now as it stands we are a playoff team. I think we can go into the 2020 season and see what we have I think people are going to be surprised at how good this team will be. 

[kevinb]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I guess we will wait and see. 

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

I guess we will wait and see. 

So.....2nd worst pitching staff in baseball is fixed by Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Got it. 

[kevinb]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

So.....2nd worst pitching staff in baseball is fixed by Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Got it. 

Nope. Bundy Teheran and Ohtani. Not to mention improvement by the young guys getting experience from last year to this year. I think right now their pitching staff is probably middle of the road. Add that to a top 5 offense, defense and a bullpen that I trust in Eppler and I think this team is a playoff team next year with out question. Subtract Cahil and Harvey with those three guys and hey I think this team is right there in the thick of things. 

[Drink More Yakult]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

So.....2nd worst pitching staff in baseball is fixed by Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Got it. 

And Shohei Ohtani and improvement from Canning and Sandoval. It’ll also probably help if someone doesn’t die mid-season.

[Pancake Bear]

Using Teheran’s WAR projection as meaningful is either dishonest or idiotic on their part. 

Through his entire career, every single season, Teheran has outperformed his projections. 

Will he still? No idea. But simply including his projection by a system that has historically always undervalued him is shoddy analysis. 

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

So.....2nd worst pitching staff in baseball is fixed by Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Got it. 

I wonder why you chose to forget about Ohtani.  Also I wonder why now, you aren’t talking about the growth of our young pitchers who got their rookie jitters out of the way.  Weird.  

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I wonder why you chose to forget about Ohtani.  Also I wonder why now, you aren’t talking about the growth of our young pitchers who got their rookie jitters out of the way.  Weird.  

Did you not read the part past about the truth being somewhere in the middle?

[Second Base]

Honestly, I feel bad for the newbies that don't understand AW culture. If they don't agree that the Angels are effing awesome and Billy Eppler is the best GM in the business, they're under immediate scrutiny. Stick around long enough and you learn how to navigate it, but the lack of acceptance of anything other than an optimistic view here can be suffocating. 

I believe without significant pitching additions, the Angels are an 87-89 win team in 2020.

[HaloNArizona]

First off....I am in the camp the we need another starting pitcher.  With that being said, the off season pitching pick ups will (and Rendon) will make this team much more competitive.  Based on WAR, both Dylan and Teheran would have been in competition for staff ace last year:

Bundy: 2.3 War

Teheran: 2.4

Heaney: 1.0

Canning: 1.1

Barria: -.6

Suarez: -1.2

Skaggs: .9

Peters: -.7

Harvey: -.7

Pena: .8

 

With a new staff of:

Bundy  (2.1) If you compare him with Harvey +2.8

Teheran (.5) If you compare to Peters or Barria: +1.2

Ohtani (2.2) if you compare to Skaggs +1.3

Heaney (2.9 +1.9

Canning (1.7) +.6

??

Without a sixth starting pitcher added, we are have increased our starting pitching WAR by 7.8....is it great...obviously not...but it is a move in the right direction.

[Stradling]

30 minutes ago, Second Base said:

So.....2nd worst pitching staff in baseball is fixed by Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Got it. 

 

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Did you not read the part past about the truth being somewhere in the middle?

I responded to this.  

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Did you not read the part past about the truth being somewhere in the middle?

And yes, I did read that, and then you decided to basically change your opinion in basically your next post.  I agreed with your longer post, but then when defending your position you left out all the stuff before and posted simply about the additions of Bundy and Teheran to paint the staff worse off than it is.  

As for your newbie comment, it’s ridiculous for you to say that shit when you have been so hellbent on how good the farm is or our prospects are and defend that above all else.  Then you stand on a soap box about not being able to talk poorly about the Angels off season.  Its the same thing but different.

[mulwin444]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Honestly, I feel bad for the newbies that don't understand AW culture. If they don't agree that the Angels are effing awesome and Billy Eppler is the best GM in the business, they're under immediate scrutiny. Stick around long enough and you learn how to navigate it, but the lack of acceptance of anything other than an optimistic view here can be suffocating. 

I believe without significant pitching additions, the Angels are an 87-89 win team in 2020.

Easy, Captain Hyperbole...1.  I don't think they're awesome 2.  I don't think Billy is the best GM in the business 3.  Pessimists often view themselves as realists and optimists as slavish nut-swingers...and vice-versa.

Let's keep it in context, my comments are mostly about the Ringer using projected pitcher WAR to criticize the Angels' offseason pitching acquisitions.  Given that pitching WAR is problematic, and using projected pitching WAR even more so, I don't see how my comments are that incendiary.

Also, just to give you my own mindset in regards to this team and their moves, I think they are a 85-90 win team right now...you know, kinda where you put them as well.

For me, their remaining needs are a mid-rotation starter and a solid back-end reliever...they have pitching depth but it's all middle-to-bottom heavy in talent and they need to push that middle upward if they want to crack 90 wins.  

[tdawg87]

Gibson would have been a great pickup. Going forward I think he will be a lot better than Bundy. And yes I know how old he is.

[ettin]

4 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Angels will win the division. This pitching staff as of today is enough. 

 

4 hours ago, eligrba said:

I agree. The starting pitching just needs to be league average for the Angels to compete for the division.  I think that is a reasonable and attainable goal for the starting pitching. 

I would also add that there will be good starters available at the Trade Deadline in all likelihood. For example if the Mets are not in contention at the deadline there may be 2-4 good starters on the block from that team alone, not to mention any other teams that might be out of the running.

All we need to do is have a sustainable first half which leads me to believe that Eppler not only might still find another starter in trade pre-season but he might find another reliever or two, potentially, as well to help soak up innings early on. This is why guys like a Seth Lugo, Josh Hader, et. al., that are good long relievers that can pitch more innings than the average reliever might be targets for rotation and/or bullpen roles.