Ringer Article on 2020 Angels Outlook

[Angel Oracle]

14 hours ago, Drink More Yakult said:

Dilly Pickles is gonna break out this year!

Reminds me of a former Halos prospect whose first name rhymes with that.    Hilly Hathaway, definitely on the all-time all-name Halos team

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, mulwin444 said:

Looking at our recent past in regards to trading prospects for established MLB players:

Under Reagins: 

Sean Rodriguez, Matthew Sweeney, and Alex Torres for Scott Kazmir - Meh for Bleghhhhhhh.  Rodriguez has had a couple decent seasons as a utility infielder and Alex Torres was good for a couple season as a reliever but neither amounted to much.  Kazmir was decent for good for 6 starts in 2009 then completely fell apart.

Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs for Dan Haren - It felt brutal then in cost even if the timing made sense and Haren only really having a solid season and a half before declining in 2012 during the playoff hunt made it a bit worse.  

Under Dipoto:

Ariel Pena, Johnny Hellweg, and Jean Segura for Zack Greinke - Pena and Hellweg didn't amount to much but Segura has since had a couple of All Star seasons for different teams since the trade.  Hurt even more that Greinke not surprisingly took the most cash a team could offer the next offseason and left after 13 decent start

Pestano for Clevinger - The one most invoked in terms of "getting owned" in a deal, this was kind of meh when it happened because Clevinger, while talented, had only made it to A+ ball and put up a 4.41 ERA 1.371 WHIP at age 23.  Obviously, it's been lopsided since then.

Sean O'Sullivan and Will Smith for Alberto Callaspo - Alberto put up 7.6 WAR in what amounted to 3 seasons with the Angels while Will Smith has emerged as a terrific reliever.  Not a terrible result on either side.

Tyler Chatwood for Chris Ianetta - As a catcher mostly known for his offense, Ianetta played well putting up 6.2 WAR in 4 seasons while Chatwood has still been searching for some consistency in his results.

Taylor Lindsey, Elliot Morris, R. J. Alvarez, Jose Rondon for Huston Street and Trevor Gott - Trade allowed us to coin the term "Rondons" for what amounts to the prospect being the equivalent of magic beans.  Four Rondons traded for Street who was part magical, decent and awful in three seasons with the Angels while said Rondons have done nothing.  Also, Gott had a good enough 2015 to allow him to be traded for someone else the next season.

Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk for David Freese and Fernando Salas - Despite playing 255 games over 2 seasons, it always felt like Freese was injured and he put up the quietest 3.9 WAR in memory.  Fernando Salas was mostly known for disappointing Angels' fans.  On the flip side, Bourjos never came close to matching his 4.9 WAR 2011 season and Grichuk has emerged as a essentially a 2 WAR OFer that will fill a roster spot on a sub-.500 team.  In the end, nobody got what they wanted but neither were impactful.

Jordan Walden for Tommy Hansen - Neither worked out for either team.

Under Eppler:

Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, and Eric Aybar for Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno - A little confession, I didn't like this trade at the time as it seemed we were good with Aybar at SS and really needed SP but hard to argue with the results since.  Simmons has put up a 20.2 WAR since 2016 and Newcomb is a reliever in ATL.

Trevor Gott and Michael Brady for Yunel Escobar - Gott has been mostly hit and miss since the trade but he's young enough to turn a corner at some point while Escobar was a decent fill-in despite just being an odd character in general.  Seemed like a decent overall trade then and it seemed to age well.

Grayson Long and Elvin Rodriguez for Justin Upton - Despite some mixed results from Upton since being acquired in 2017, Eppler gave up a pitcher who retired after 1 start with Detroit's AA affiliate and another who is 21 in A+ ball sporting a 3.77 ERA...not a bad price for a 4 WAR player.

Conor Lillis-White for Tommy LaStella - LaStella broke out offensively for the Angels in 2019 while Lillis-White broke out his lawn chair.

 

So, in the end, a majority of the Rondons we hold so dearly will likely not amount to much more than AA/AAA fodder.  While you shouldn't just give them away, there no reason not to pull the trigger when the deal makes sense in context of your team's current situation.

That Huston Street trade was worth it for coining Rendon alone.

[Mark68]

IMO, the team is better than last year. Certainly, signing Rendon & Castro vastly improved the offense and improved the defense. 

The pitching should be better. I don't expect Ohtani to pitch more than 100ish innings, but Teheran & Bundy will solidify their spots. I believe Canning and (to a lesser extent) Sandoval will step up, and Heaney should(?) be better. 

Is this team good enough to win the division? No. Is it good enough to be in the wild card hunt in June/July? Probably. But if they're in the hunt then, it is IMPERATIVE that they go get a frontline starter to have any chance at going deep in the postseason. 

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, RBM said:

When I read stuff like this it makes me happy Eppler is our GM. There is 0% chance he makes this deal for two years of Jon Gray.

Also, you should check his Home/Away splits. 

I think when it comes to Colorado pitchers we can basically throw away the Home/Away splits. 

I do think that's too much to give up for Gray, though. If he had 3 years of control it might be worth that but that one fewer year is huge. Adams, Rengifo, and Suarez is a fair offer. Maybe throw in Jackson.

[mulwin444]

40 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That Huston Street trade was worth it for coining Rendon alone.

Yep, anything that ultimately adds to the AW nomenclature is a win...

[Second Base]

28 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I think when it comes to Colorado pitchers we can basically throw away the Home/Away splits. 

I do think that's too much to give up for Gray, though. If he had 3 years of control it might be worth that but that one fewer year is huge. Adams, Rengifo, and Suarez is a fair offer. Maybe throw in Jackson.

That's still a pretty steep price for only two years.

[Stradling]

54 minutes ago, Second Base said:

See now that's unfair! If your ideas didn't suck so hard, I wouldn't have to come up with my own, and thus favor my own over yours.

Haha. Ok bro.  Keep playing make believe.  

[Stradling]

52 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That Huston Street trade was worth it for coining Rondon alone.

So not all of my ideas are bad?

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

That's still a pretty steep price for only two years.

I agree, but I will always err on the side of us giving up too much because that's usually how it ends up happening.

I've posted this a bunch of times before but I'll post it again. 

A trade will go down and it will be reported. "Angels have acquired Jon Gray from Colorado. Hearing Jordyn Adams and Jose Suarez are going to Colorado in trade."

We'll be mostly ecstatic, because we didn't give up Marsh or Adell and got a good pitcher with 2 years of control. But we still lament giving up Adams because he's got such a high ceiling.

Then it comes out that there's two more players involved and we start speculating. "It's probably a couple lower level guys, or maybe a low level reliever and Matt Thaiss." 

Then we find out it's Jeremiah Jackson and Rengifo. Now Angelswin loses their shit. Eppler got taken to the cleaners, he should be fired, etc...

2 years later Lou agrees with half the board because Jackson is still stuck in low A ball and Rengifo is a .220 hitting utility guy.

I've seen this happen 3 times. It will happen again.

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

So not all of my ideas are bad?

All of your bad ideas are bad.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

All of your bad ideas are bad.

Even Rondons?

[mulwin444]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree, but I will always err on the side of us giving up too much because that's usually how it ends up happening.

I've posted this a bunch of times before but I'll post it again. 

A trade will go down and it will be reported. "Angels have acquired Jon Gray from Colorado. Hearing Jordyn Adams and Jose Suarez are going to Colorado in trade."

We'll be mostly ecstatic, because we didn't give up Marsh or Adell and got a good pitcher with 2 years of control. But we still lament giving up Adams because he's got such a high ceiling.

Then it comes out that there's two more players involved and we start speculating. "It's probably a couple lower level guys, or maybe a low level reliever and Matt Thaiss." 

Then we find out it's Jeremiah Jackson and Rengifo. Now Angelswin loses their shit. Eppler got taken to the cleaners, he should be fired, etc...

2 years later Lou agrees with half the board because Jackson is still stuck in low A ball and Rengifo is a .220 hitting utility guy.

I've seen this happen 3 times. It will happen again.

This is me liking this post twice 

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree, but I will always err on the side of us giving up too much because that's usually how it ends up happening.

I've posted this a bunch of times before but I'll post it again. 

A trade will go down and it will be reported. "Angels have acquired Jon Gray from Colorado. Hearing Jordyn Adams and Jose Suarez are going to Colorado in trade."

We'll be mostly ecstatic, because we didn't give up Marsh or Adell and got a good pitcher with 2 years of control. But we still lament giving up Adams because he's got such a high ceiling.

Then it comes out that there's two more players involved and we start speculating. "It's probably a couple lower level guys, or maybe a low level reliever and Matt Thaiss." 

Then we find out it's Jeremiah Jackson and Rengifo. Now Angelswin loses their shit. Eppler got taken to the cleaners, he should be fired, etc...

2 years later Lou agrees with half the board because Jackson is still stuck in low A ball and Rengifo is a .220 hitting utility guy.

I've seen this happen 3 times. It will happen again.

I'm not as high on Jackson as others are, so that wouldn't surprise me. Great power, but plate discipline issues. Rengifo is already a better hitter than that.

But you're right. It's better to guess too much.

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Even Rondons?

Especially the Rondons. They're all future Trouts.

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm not as high on Jackson as others are, so that wouldn't surprise me. Great power, but plate discipline issues. Rengifo is already a better hitter than that.

But you're right. It's better to guess too much.

I think they'd like him because of his power. Could be a brown Adam Dunn in Coors.

[Mark68]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I agree, but I will always err on the side of us giving up too much because that's usually how it ends up happening.

I've posted this a bunch of times before but I'll post it again. 

A trade will go down and it will be reported. "Angels have acquired Jon Gray from Colorado. Hearing Jordyn Adams and Jose Suarez are going to Colorado in trade."

We'll be mostly ecstatic, because we didn't give up Marsh or Adell and got a good pitcher with 2 years of control. But we still lament giving up Adams because he's got such a high ceiling.

Then it comes out that there's two more players involved and we start speculating. "It's probably a couple lower level guys, or maybe a low level reliever and Matt Thaiss." 

Then we find out it's Jeremiah Jackson and Rengifo. Now Angelswin loses their shit. Eppler got taken to the cleaners, he should be fired, etc...

2 years later Lou agrees with half the board because Jackson is still stuck in low A ball and Rengifo is a .220 hitting utility guy.

I've seen this happen 3 times. It will happen again.

Considering the Rockies A) Don't have a lot of good pitching to go around, and B) Think they'll compete this year (ha!), I would expect them to have a high ask on Gray. They don't have to trade him now. 

However, this June or July might be a different Story (see what I did there?).

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Mark68 said:

Considering the Rockies A) Don't have a lot of good pitching to go around, and B) Think they'll compete this year (ha!), I would expect them to have a high ask on Gray. They don't have to trade him now. 

However, this June or July might be a different Story (see what I did there?).

I'm not sure they're looking to compete since apparently Arenado is available. But IMO a team would maximize a pitcher's trade value at the deadline because teams are desperate and will give up a lot to get that one last piece to get them over the top. Add in the fact that Gray has an additional year of control and they would get an absolute haul for him.

Of course that assumes he is pitching well. Trading him now would get Colorado less of a King's ransom, but at least they aren't taking the risk of him getting hurt or sucking in 2020.

[Mark68]

30 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm not sure they're looking to compete since apparently Arenado is available. But IMO a team would maximize a pitcher's trade value at the deadline because teams are desperate and will give up a lot to get that one last piece to get them over the top. Add in the fact that Gray has an additional year of control and they would get an absolute haul for him.

Of course that assumes he is pitching well. Trading him now would get Colorado less of a King's ransom, but at least they aren't taking the risk of him getting hurt or sucking in 2020.

I think they're "considering" trading Arenado along the same lines that they're "considering" trading Gray. Doesn't hurt to listen to offers, and if they get blown away...and Arenado waives his no-trade, then why not? They can either have Brendan Rodgers play 3rd or short and have Story slide over. 

They THINK they'll compete, but they have so many bad contracts (Ian Desmond and their entire bullpen) that it doesn't seem likely. I think Brdich is probably the worst GM around. 

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, RBM said:

The reason I mentioned looking up Jon Gray's home/away splits was to counter the comment that he made saying if you "get him away from Colorado he's an ace". He actually has slightly better numbers at home than he does on the road which is not the norm at all for Colorado pitchers.

Right, it's definitely weird. I'm not sure how to explain that one. 

I think he'd do well in Anaheim but then again we thought the same thing about CJ Wilson.

Edited January 10, 2020 by tdawg87