Dylan Bundy to the Angels for Isaac Mattson, Zach Peek, Kyle Bradish, and Kyle Brnovich

[totdprods]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I really don't see much potential though. Mattson has good numbers but lacks projection. Bradish projects into the back of a rotation, that's about it though. The other two are about as typical as college starters get it seems. They'll more than likely remain starters until they reach AA, then either become middle relievers or depth fodder.

If I was Mike Elias....I don't think I would've accepted the offer. Arms are nice to have but you need quality. 

I believe Elias mentioned specifically that they’re almost as interested in adding quantity to the farm as they are quality. 

I mean, Eppler sort of did the same thing the last two years. He drafted a ridiculous number of pitchers just to give him a deep well to draw from for future trades. Elias is doing the same thing, trying to just add as much volume to the once-barren Baltimore farm as possible now. 

It could actually be argued that Eias’ Baltimore is taking a very Eppler-esque approach to their rebuild. They didn’t have much to sell and didn’t have much of a farm, in a strong division. They’ll be quick to claim talent and try to rebuild value on guys to flip them for anything they can, and having arms like these gives them other trade chips or lotto ticks to dream on.

[mulwin444]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I really don't see much potential though. Mattson has good numbers but lacks projection. Bradish projects into the back of a rotation, that's about it though. The other two are about as typical as college starters get it seems. They'll more than likely remain starters until they reach AA, then either become middle relievers or depth fodder.

If I was Mike Elias....I don't think I would've accepted the offer. Arms are nice to have but you need quality. 

I don't think there is much potential either but I think it was a trade of circumstance where the Orioles just wanted to get of the salary and probably couldn't get much better for him right now.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

It definitely would, but the reason my expectations are high is rooted in the concept that ultimately, winning a World Series is the goal. Eppler's job was to build a winner and rebuild the farm while maintaining a reasonable payroll for a mid to large market team. He's done the latter, but it's been 5 years and Eppler has failed to build a winning team which is his primary function in the front office.

Every GM has their failures, but the longer Eppler is in the GM seat, the more those failures have compounded. Maybin, Nava, Gentry, Giavotella, Harvey, Cahill, Doug White and Brad Ausmus..... Even the Upton deal is looking like it has become prohibitive.

He has to win at some point. And that point has come. 

Yes, true, but I think it is easy for us to forget how hard it is to be a major league GM. Actually, none of us has any clue, really. For one, it isn't done in a vacuum. It isn't like shopping at Costco, where everything is in stock and you just buy whatever you feel like. It is more like an auction with 29 other potential bidders (although usually only a handful of serious bidders). Furthermore, you might not know what anyone else is bidding. In the end, every GM has to put limits on what they'll spend.

Dialling back a month, it was fun saying "I'll take one of Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal"--which was my pipe-dream offseason haul--but it just doesn't work that way. If Eppler had equalled the Wheeler and Grandal offers, he'd have spent $42M AAV already.

But yeah, he pretty much "has to" get Cole--or at least Strasburg, or possibly Ryu and some other upgrade--to not turn 2020 into another "wait until the next year, year."

[ettin]

I don't think Eppler is going to miss a quartet of pitchers that were more likely to be Major League relievers than starters. Eppler has shown a propensity to pick up good relievers off of the waiver wire or through minor trades so this probably isn't a real loss in the organization's eyes. For the Orioles if even just one of those four turns into a Major League starter they will consider it a real win. Even if only a couple of them turn into Major League relievers they will consider it a win too, I would think.

That is why I like the trade for both sides, it met common needs on both ends.

[T.G.]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, true, but I think it is easy for us to forget how hard it is to be a major league GM. Actually, none of us has any clue, really. For one, it isn't done in a vacuum. It isn't like shopping at Costco, where everything is in stock and you just buy whatever you feel like. It is more like an auction with 29 other potential bidders (although usually only a handful of serious bidders). Furthermore, you might not know what anyone else is bidding. In the end, every GM has to put limits on what they'll spend.

Dialling back a month, it was fun saying "I'll take one of Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal"--which was my pipe-dream offseason haul--but it just doesn't work that way. If Eppler had equalled the Wheeler and Grandal offers, he'd have spent $42M AAV already.

But yeah, he pretty much "has to" get Cole--or at least Strasburg, or possibly Ryu and some other upgrade--to not turn 2020 into another "wait until the next year, year."

Yeah, but I have dominated in fantasy baseball!

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

It definitely would, but the reason my expectations are high is rooted in the concept that ultimately, winning a World Series is the goal. Eppler's job was to build a winner and rebuild the farm while maintaining a reasonable payroll for a mid to large market team. He's done the latter, but it's been 5 years and Eppler has failed to build a winning team which is his primary function in the front office.

Every GM has their failures, but the longer Eppler is in the GM seat, the more those failures have compounded. Maybin, Nava, Gentry, Giavotella, Harvey, Cahill, Doug White and Brad Ausmus..... Even the Upton deal is looking like it has become prohibitive.

He has to win at some point. And that point has come. 

Floating through the gray zone again where a lot needs to go right for the team to win.  At least that's where I see us headed with this acquisition.  Only now he used prospect capital to get there.  Two players of which have no time in pro ball.  As mentioned, the likelihood of those guys being something isn't great but it's still less capital in your pocket than you had before.  

If he uses year to year payroll on those types of deals then fine.  Even if it's for 2-3 years at a reasonable rate then ok.  Gibson getting 3/30 is fine.  Is a Wade Miley type at a couple mil more this year and likely the same dollar amount as Bundy next year a downgrade in performance?  

Cole is different because he's a longer term play.  But they have to also decide what they want to be over the next couple years.   Why bother giving up prospects when you are skirting the margins of mediocrity?  

[Mark68]

12 hours ago, RBM said:

Best reply was “Some of those home runs he gave up left the country also...”

• Brayden liva‏ @BraydenLiva 14h14 hours ago

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  Replying to @Ken_Rosenthal

  Honest question- is Bundy dyslexic

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  Bridget Penna‏ @BcpennaB 14h14 hours ago

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  No I'm dyslexic and I can tell he's ton

I am appalled that someone would make fun of a learning disability like this...

 

 

 

 

 

 

At least when I'm done laughing out loud, I might be appalled...

[Second Base]

43 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Floating through the gray zone again where a lot needs to go right for the team to win.  At least that's where I see us headed with this acquisition.  Only now he used prospect capital to get there.  Two players of which have no time in pro ball.  As mentioned, the likelihood of those guys being something isn't great but it's still less capital in your pocket than you had before.  

If he uses year to year payroll on those types of deals then fine.  Even if it's for 2-3 years at a reasonable rate then ok.  Gibson getting 3/30 is fine.  Is a Wade Miley type at a couple mil more this year and likely the same dollar amount as Bundy next year a downgrade in performance?  

Cole is different because he's a longer term play.  But they have to also decide what they want to be over the next couple years.   Why bother giving up prospects when you are skirting the margins of mediocrity?  

This very well may be the time he cashes in that Brandon Marsh trade chip he's kept in his back pocket these years.

[Duren, Duren]

This trade is very sensible. The Angels starters mostly couldn't last half a game even. An inning eater with an ERA in the mid 4.00s who starts 25 times, goes 125 plus innings.  is certainly a positive. 

Back rotation pitchers are important in the long run. You need some steady, dependable arms to stretch the innings, rest the mid relievers and stay competitive into the last four innings. 

The Angels should have a better offense behind Bundy. More runs scored will let him eat more innings. 

Of course he has his flaws, but he is intended to play a certain role, not be the ace. He has enough experience, knowledge of the league and a very good k rate. What happened in Baltimore is also a reflection of the types of games he was in too, where he had to serve as as a de facto ace and carry more pressure.

A nice, modest move by Eppler. Not the blockbuster trade or signing, but a positive addition for the most glaring position of weakness.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Duren, Duren said:

The Angels should have a better offense behind Bundy. More runs scored will let him eat more innings. 

Better defense, bullpen, and ballparks too.

[hangin n wangin]

I hope Bundy turns a corner and improves in Anaheim. I was high on him three years ago and do like the guy, but he’s just been super average since then. Yes, he didn’t pitch in a good ball park, but he was still throwing too many hittable pitches. He has the stuff to be a solid pitcher, but I’m still expecting a 4+ ERA simply because I don’t think he’s a very smart pitcher. A 4 ERA is fine and useful as a depth starter but let’s see what else we do to improve the starting pitching.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, true, but I think it is easy for us to forget how hard it is to be a major league GM. Actually, none of us has any clue, really. For one, it isn't done in a vacuum. It isn't like shopping at Costco, where everything is in stock and you just buy whatever you feel like. It is more like an auction with 29 other potential bidders (although usually only a handful of serious bidders). Furthermore, you might not know what anyone else is bidding. In the end, every GM has to put limits on what they'll spend.

Dialling back a month, it was fun saying "I'll take one of Cole, Wheeler, and Grandal"--which was my pipe-dream offseason haul--but it just doesn't work that way. If Eppler had equalled the Wheeler and Grandal offers, he'd have spent $42M AAV already.

But yeah, he pretty much "has to" get Cole--or at least Strasburg, or possibly Ryu and some other upgrade--to not turn 2020 into another "wait until the next year, year."

There is a shopping list, but you're right in that it leaves out the very human element, that sometimes, it isn't about the money. We do know that Eppler recognizes talent when he sees it. The fact that the Angels were runner up on Eovaldi, Corbin and Morton last year speaks to this concept. We can explain away why each player choose each destination, but the bottom line is still the same. Eppler had failed to build a winner. He's had money to spend, he had Trout, Ohtani, Simmons and So-Cal and still he hasn't built a winner.

This is a hard job. That's why there's only 30 of them in the world. But that also means that if Billy can't do it, there's a lot of other candidates that are willing to step in and give it a shot.

Through circumstances that are mostly outside of his control, Eppler now had to build a winner, or get fired.

[tntoriole]

18 hours ago, ScottT said:

I don't blame Orioles fans for being defeated instead of angry and cursing.  They've had a brutal couple of decades.   Fourteen seasons in a row under .500.   4th or 5th place in thirteen of those seasons.   At least 20 games out in thirteen of those seasons. 

Then, 2012...  93 wins... because they somehow won every close game.  They improved in 2013, but won 8 fewer games.    They were legitimately good in 2014, for the first time in 17 years.   They've had one winning season since, and the last three have been ugly.   

How does their farm system rank?   Did it move at all today?  I get the trade from their end, but yikes.   They fucking suck. 

Actually from 2012 through 2016 the Orioles won more games than any team in the AL.   Yes it was a long down period prior to that time, but, someone like me went to his first Orioles game in 1965  and was lucky enough to have many years where the Orioles were the best team in baseball and I have attended all five World Series that have been played in Baltimore (significantly more than some organizations, one might add).    But baseball runs in cycles and we are in a rebuild.  We believe that Mike Elias/Sig Mejdal have already made substantial progress in many areas including the hires of Koby Perez away from Cleveland to lead the international scouting division and the recent hire of Eve Rosenbaum from Houston as director of baseball development and Chris Holt last winter as organization pitching developmental director.    Elias was heavily involved in the drafting and scouting process both with St. Louis and Houston and the farm system has already made substantive progress....  Farm rankings are notoriously variable but a Fangraphs recent analysis had the Orioles system ranked 10th overall in MLB ( a substantial improvement from 2017 when it was 27th).   Picking number one Adley Rutschman helps with that but the pitching prospects at A and AA levels in our system have made marked improvement in the last year.     We will have the 2nd, 31st (competitive balance pick) and 40th picks in this year's draft and given the likelihood of being at the bottom again in 2020, we will likely again have high picks in the 2021 draft.   Look for the 2021 season to have us hit .500 and in 2022 to be at the top of the AL East and then in playoff competition for some years to come...(if the Houston type rebuild works as planned...lol).  

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100

[hangin n wangin]

16 hours ago, Second Base said:

If this is the second starting pitcher, then I will be irate and call for Eppler to be fired. 

Yep. If this is our big acquisition, this organization deserves what it gets.

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Yep. If this is our big acquisition, this organization deserves what it gets.

That isn’t what he said. He said if this ‘if this is our second acquisition’. I don’t necessarily agree with him on that. If we get Cole and a catcher, I’ll wait it out and see how it goes. 

I do agree if we don’t get an impact pitcher, I’ll call for Eppler to be out. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

22 hours ago, ScottT said:

I don't blame Orioles fans for being defeated instead of angry and cursing.  They've had a brutal couple of decades.   Fourteen seasons in a row under .500.   4th or 5th place in thirteen of those seasons.   At least 20 games out in thirteen of those seasons. 

Then, 2012...  93 wins... because they somehow won every close game.  They improved in 2013, but won 8 fewer games.    They were legitimately good in 2014, for the first time in 17 years.   They've had one winning season since, and the last three have been ugly.   

How does their farm system rank?   Did it move at all today?  I get the trade from their end, but yikes.   They fucking suck. 

They still have chris davis at least

[ten ocho recon scout]

More or less, Im hoping he replaces Skaggs....

IF we land cole, and Canning is healthy (same for Ohtani), we should be alright. Thin, but way better than recent years.

[ScottT]

5 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Actually from 2012 through 2016 the Orioles won more games than any team in the AL.   Yes it was a long down period prior to that time, but, someone like me went to his first Orioles game in 1965  and was lucky enough to have many years where the Orioles were the best team in baseball and I have attended all five World Series that have been played in Baltimore (significantly more than some organizations, one might add).    But baseball runs in cycles and we are in a rebuild.  We believe that Mike Elias/Sig Mejdal have already made substantial progress in many areas including the hires of Koby Perez away from Cleveland to lead the international scouting division and the recent hire of Eve Rosenbaum from Houston as director of baseball development and Chris Holt last winter as organization pitching developmental director.    Elias was heavily involved in the drafting and scouting process both with St. Louis and Houston and the farm system has already made substantive progress....  Farm rankings are notoriously variable but a Fangraphs recent analysis had the Orioles system ranked 10th overall in MLB ( a substantial improvement from 2017 when it was 27th).   Picking number one Adley Rutschman helps with that but the pitching prospects at A and AA levels in our system have made marked improvement in the last year.     We will have the 2nd, 31st (competitive balance pick) and 40th picks in this year's draft and given the likelihood of being at the bottom again in 2020, we will likely again have high picks in the 2021 draft.   Look for the 2021 season to have us hit .500 and in 2022 to be at the top of the AL East and then in playoff competition for some years to come...(if the Houston type rebuild works as planned...lol).  

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100

Good luck with that

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 12/4/2019 at 1:51 PM, Make Angels Great Again said:

This needs to be in this thread

 

 

Yeah, he kind of melted down. 

[Lou]

On 12/4/2019 at 7:32 PM, tntoriole said:

  So we fully expect another 100 plus loss season and maybe two,  

 

11 hours ago, tntoriole said:

 and given the likelihood of being at the bottom again in 2020, we will likely again have high picks in the 2021 draft.   Look for the 2021 season to have us hit .500 and in 2022 to be at the top of the AL East and then in playoff competition for some years to come

so let me get this straight: 

2020 - 100 losses

2021 - either 100 losses or a .500 record.

2022 - AL East Champs.

 

yeah, I can see that happening.....

[tntoriole]

10 hours ago, Lou said:

 

so let me get this straight: 

2020 - 100 losses

2021 - either 100 losses or a .500 record.

2022 - AL East Champs.

 

yeah, I can see that happening.....

Don't watch the AL East much do you?  2011- Orioles were 69-93 last place.   2012- 93-69 playoffs  2014 AL East Champions by 12 games 96-66...  let's come back and look at this in 2022 and we will see who is correct.  

[tntoriole]

15 hours ago, ScottT said:

Good luck with that

We shall see.  No guarantees in baseball, that's for sure.  

[ettin]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Don't watch the AL East much do you?  2011- Orioles were 69-93 last place.   2012- 93-69 playoffs  2014 AL East Champions by 12 games 96-66...  let's come back and look at this in 2022 and we will see who is correct.  

@Lou, you gonna let him get away with that? You gonna let this f*ck*ng punk get away with that? What's the matter? What's the world coming to? - Alternate Goodfellas scene, probably.

 

[Angelsjunky]

I'd like to think that Bundy could surprise everyone and recapture his earlier promise, but unfortunately I think the ship has sailed on that one and his upside for the next two years is as a good #4. The velocity over the last four years says it all:

The most obvious thing to notice is the big drop from 2016 to 2017. He's been relatively stable since, but I see a slight downward trend, and he now seems to have slightly below average fastball velocity (I believe average is 92-93, and he seems slightly below that on average).

 

[Lou]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Don't watch the AL East much do you?  2011- Orioles were 69-93 last place.   2012- 93-69 playoffs  2014 AL East Champions by 12 games 96-66...  let's come back and look at this in 2022 and we will see who is correct.  

In 2014, NY only won 84 games and Boston 71.  That isn't happening again. There is no way in hell you're winning the division in 2022.

My favorite part of your prediction, however, is that in 2021 you're going to win either 62 or 81 games.