Ken Rosenthal: No more excuses for Eppler

[angelsnationtalk]

16 hours ago, totdprods said:

Personally, if I were in Eppler’s shoes, I would actually be much more interested in trading for a cheap, controllable, #2-3 type than signing one. Cahill and Harvey were supposed to be decent #3-#5 types and they failed spectacularly. Most mid-tier FA SPs seem to be terrible investments in recent years. I’d rather risk dealing away 2-3 prospects from surplus areas (OF, corner infield, , and enjoy the financial flexibility a trade return SP brings than a FA mid-tier SP.

I get that prospects are like gold, but I think it’s by design Eppler has developed those three areas to be so deep. Trading some would allow him to have a lot more flexibility to patch other holes and there won’t always be playing time for every prospect, especially if we’re in the thick of contention 22-26.

I just worry about who's being traded in the deal. I agree we should trade for a #2-#3 guy in addition to going after Cole. Just hear me out about the Upton/Marsh situation. 

Upton is off the books come 2023. In 2022 Justin Upton will be in his age 34 season. He's already physically showed minor signs of a decline. Add in his reads/throwing arm and it could be a liability at some point. Aside from Adams, Knowles and Deveaux, Marsh is the strongest OF prospect we have. Unless Adams or one of the others is able to become a top 100 prospect, hit better and develop much better in the outfield, I can't make that trade. Unless Eppler believes that we have a legitimate shot at winning between 2020-2021, then I'd strongly suggest to wait. Maybe they have already talked to Upton about the future. Let's say that Upton and Angels FO have already hinted that 1B could be a destination for him. That means that Thaiss, Walsh and Ward are all moveable. Obviously they don't bring back a solid #2 type guy, but that's where our financial might comes in to play.

It's just hard for me to see Eppler wanting to trade Marsh for a slight chance at winning in 2020-2021 knowing his age, salary and athleticism will all completely replace Upton come 2022-2023. Once Cozart and Pujols come off the books then a lot of things can change. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

23 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Let's change it a bit. We're likely going to a 6 man rotation again with "Ohtani Sundays". so let's go: Cole, #2 guy, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval/Barria/Suarez.

If the 6th man is like last year's we'll have 4 starters, Ohtani and 2 or 3 prospects with options on the Salt Lake Shuttle Express...

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

23 hours ago, Bronson said:

What about Fletcher?

Goodwin, Calhoun's HR

[totdprods]

14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

my guess is they'd have not signed Allen if they went after Happ and Eovaldi.  

Happ has an era above 5 and Eovaldi above 6.  They're each owned 17m in 2020.  

They'd actually have almost no money  to spend this off season and if they had signed eovaldi who owed that 17m over the next three after this year, they might not be able to afford Cole.  What a disaster that would have been.  

This is exactly why I'm a little freaked out by all the posts saying we need to sign two or three of the top FAs. If it backfires it really puts Eppler in a corner for 2-3 years as we'd be tight with Pujols, Upton, Simmons, maybe Cole and the mid-tier FAs clogging things up, and probably costs him his job, and stalls out the farm's progress as young guys don't get key developmental playing time.

• 1) Cole, undoubtedly, top priority. If we're so lucky to get him, I don't think shopping mid-tier should be the focus. Go for the super-cheap one-year guys and cross your fingers. Wacha, Nova, Roark, Moore, Miley, etc. Don't risk clogging the payroll/rotation on mid-tier FA SPs, not after we just landed the big prize of the offseason - and another huge commitment to the books. Strongly consider a trade for a long-term, cheap, relatively young SP with some potential, be it Boyd or Bundy or Junis or Alcantara or whatever.
• 2) Miss out on Cole? Sure, go after Wheeler, Ryu, Hamels, Bumgarner, one of the guys that is close to a #1. We need it. If we get one, I still don't think signing another mid-range guy makes sense - unless the deal for that first FA SP was favorable. If Wheeler is 3/$30m? Great, sign two! If he's more like 4/$68m, then I'd say best bet is go back to the cheap one-years or trade market. 
• 3) Miss out on all of the top arms? Now it might be time to consider locking in two or three mid-to-low range FAs - Pineda, Odorizzi, Gibson, Roark, Miley, Moore, Ross, Hellickson - and perhaps look at bullpen, offense, catcher help. Roll the dice with the kids and rebound vets - again - and hope for better luck next offseason with Ray, Stroman, Paxton, Minor, Strasburg, Tanaka, Walker. 

Fixing all of the rotation woes via FA this winter seems a really bad recipe.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

21 hours ago, nate said:

Cole is going to get offers of like 6 years 180 million, I think it is too much, especially when every new pitcher to join the Angels blows out their UCL within the first six months.

Of course it's too much money but we need to pay up or the stupid money they spent on Trout will be wasted. Arte spent himself into this corner with Pujols, Hamilton, and Wilson. Now he needs to spend his way out with Cole and at least one more starter. It's the only way out of being the laughing stock of baseball. Being known as the team that wasted the career of the greatest talent in 50 years...

[Inside Pitch]

31 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

my guess is they'd have not signed Allen if they went after Happ and Eovaldi.  

Happ has an era above 5 and Eovaldi above 6.  They're each owned 17m in 2020.  

They'd actually have almost no money  to spend this off season and if they had signed eovaldi who owed that 17m over the next three after this year, they might not be able to afford Cole.  What a disaster that would have been.  

I made reference to this previously...   

For all the whining about the money "wasted" in 2019 (34 mil), the monies still owed to Eovaldi (51 mil), and Happ (34 mil) would be significantly worse.

As brutal as its been, the Angels are out from under their mess and in position to try again.

 

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I just worry about who's being traded in the deal. I agree we should trade for a #2-#3 guy in addition to going after Cole. Just hear me out about the Upton/Marsh situation. 

Upton is off the books come 2023. In 2022 Justin Upton will be in his age 34 season. He's already physically showed minor signs of a decline. Add in his reads/throwing arm and it could be a liability at some point. Aside from Adams, Knowles and Deveaux, Marsh is the strongest OF prospect we have. Unless Adams or one of the others is able to become a top 100 prospect, hit better and develop much better in the outfield, I can't make that trade. Unless Eppler believes that we have a legitimate shot at winning between 2020-2021, then I'd strongly suggest to wait. Maybe they have already talked to Upton about the future. Let's say that Upton and Angels FO have already hinted that 1B could be a destination for him. That means that Thaiss, Walsh and Ward are all moveable. Obviously they don't bring back a solid #2 type guy, but that's where our financial might comes in to play.

It's just hard for me to see Eppler wanting to trade Marsh for a slight chance at winning in 2020-2021 knowing his age, salary and athleticism will all completely replace Upton come 2022-2023. Once Cozart and Pujols come off the books then a lot of things can change. 

Whew, there's lot in here. I hear all you're saying, really, I do, but...

• 1) Upton might be worse at 1B than LF. Fletcher has spoken about this. 1B is involved in a lot more plays than LF is, and Upton doesn't have the best hands/reaction. This could be a mess. 
• 2) Adams is making a heck of a case to be a Top 100 prospect, IMO, as soon as this offseason, and he's moving almost as quickly as Jo Adell did - do not discount him being MLB ready as soon as 2021, at least in a temporary capacity due to injury or struggle.
• 3) The Angels still have Brian Goodwin for the next three seasons, and while he's maybe been lucky this year, I think he's at worst, a league-average outfielder, which is fine. Also, they got him for nothing, off waivers. Cheap, average productive MLB OFs are relatively easy to find right now.
• 4) Upton, Trout, Adell, and Goodwin should have no problem covering 95% of the OF games on schedule in 2020, 2021, and 2022, barring injury. That doesn't leave much room for Marsh.
• 5) If there is injury? Don't rule out getting something from Lund, Hermosillo, or Martinez in the interim. J.B. Shuck and Reggie Willits have given us huge lifts for a full season in recent years. It can happen. Also, Jahmai Jones can play outfield and will probably be on the 40-man next year. Fletcher, Ward, even Thaiss, Walsh, or Rengifo all could wind up slotting into LF for significant playing time as well - if the situation calls for it.
• 6) Knowles and Deveaux have to be added to the 40-man in Upton's final year under contract, so they're already back-up depth for him in 2022, barring any major stalls in their development. 
• 7) Also, it's not entirely unreasonable that Upton doesn't really decline, and remains a steady .250/.340/.460/.800, 25-30 HR guy with 2-4 WAR annually. Marsh won't bump that, or Trout, or Adell in that scenario.

If Brandon Marsh helps get the Angels a significant pitching addition via trade - as in, if he makes up 50% of the value in a deal, and the Angels are getting back an arm with near-future #2 upside and MLB-ready #3-4 floor, and said arm has years of control, and as a result, a cheap arb. pricetag, I think that arm would be of far more value to the Angels then Marsh, who might not even get playing time the next 2-3 years if everyone stays healthy and productive.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I made reference to this previously...   

For all the whining about the money "wasted" in 2019 (34 mil), the monies still owed to Eovaldi (51 mil), and Happ (34 mil) would be significantly worse.

As brutal as its been, the Angels are out from under their mess and in position to try again.

 

Yep, exactly this.  They also acquired this past off season, affordable useful pieces on the offensive side (LaStella and Goodwin) that not only add to the bench strength but also afford the team the ability to sign higher end free agent arms this coming off season.  

[angelsnationtalk]

12 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I read the two articles and like the first 3 pages of this thread.  

I don’t think either article said anything particularly unfair.  There’s been some debate about Epplers FA track record.  I’m not really sure why.  The track record is bad.  He’s a made a few nice moves.  But when he’s spent money, mostly it’s been a train wreck.  Arguing that valid point is dumb.  So Eppler absolutely has to show something this offseason.  And so does Arte.  The idea that the team will be mired in mediocrity again next season.  Wasting Mile Trout in his 20’s yet again is so miserable that I hardly want to even consider it.  I’m a fan. I’ve been patient for a long time.  I don’t give a shit about excuses anymore.  I’ve said that I don’t expect them to win the division.  But I do expect that the team succeeds in bringing in the players they obviously need.  And I do expect to give a shit about baseball next September.  I don’t feel like pretending that the team just has too many holes to fill to be a fun team to follow.  This team is not fun.  And it hasn’t been.   I’ve had enough of that.  Spend the money to make your possibly GOAT player be involved in important games.  Or please shut the fu*ck forever about the #haloway and how the team doesn’t tank or how the team expects to be a top organization.  

The team needs upper rotation pitchers and the team needs another effective power hitter.  If you’re serious about making deep October playoff runs.  You have to think about how you’re going to beat the Yankees and Astros and Red Sox and Twins and even the A’s and Indians.  A few effective moves to address obvious needs puts the Angels there.  But they have to spend the money and they have to be bold.  I think they should seriously explore trading Simmons.  He’s probably damaged his value quite bit but he may still command a solid return.  It’s somethi g the team should explore.  I don’t think the team should give him more then a 3 year contract.  I don’t think any baseball team should hand out huge commitments to any player with offensive prowess as speculative as Andreltons.  I love the guy but it is what it is.  David Fletcher plays a great SS.  The bat is important.  A spectre of a post 20’s sub 100 OPS + or wRC+ with this guy is a real one.  And to give him a big contract is a huge risk. And with Fletcher and Rengifo it’s not a risk the Angels need to take.  Anyway.  We’ll see.  I’m really looking forward to this winter and I’m enthusiastic that we’ll all be excited this spring.  

But if not, I mean I’ve had enough of failure.  Get new guys in there.  Sorry Billy. 

This is well said. Angels need to go for it. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

22 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'm most concerned about jumping the gun on a high end trade.  As much as I'd like to see them shore up a rotation spot for the next 4-5 years with a controlled guy who has front of the rotation upside, those tend to cost huge and we really don't have the farm depth to cover that right now.  Redundancy to cover aging, declining or poor performing players is why teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees have succeeded of late.  They've generally kept their farm intact.  

The Astros have gotten their starting rotation through shrewd trades for the most part. Although they traded 3 of their top 5 prospects and a lesser one for Grienke, leaving their farm system worse than ours ATM. The have 2 prospects left in the top 100, Tucker and Whitley. Whitley has struggled since being promoted above high A ball

Edited September 5, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

13 hours ago, Jay said:

If I had to bet I wouldn't bet that Ohtani is going to be a 20-game winner for the Angels.

 

20-game winners are going to as rare as the gooney bird very soon. There hasn't been one since 2016.

[totdprods]

20 hours ago, Dochalo said:

they know they're going to need more than one guy.  So going out and getting at least one to get the ball rolling might actually be something more enticing to Cole anyway.  

I'm most concerned about jumping the gun on a high end trade.  As much as I'd like to see them shore up a rotation spot for the next 4-5 years with a controlled guy who has front of the rotation upside, those tend to cost huge and we really don't have the farm depth to cover that right now.  Redundancy to cover aging, declining or poor performing players is why teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees have succeeded of late.  They've generally kept their farm intact.  

They're gonna need 15-20 wins to close the gap from this year to next.  That's a shit ton and while two or three starters could make up for most of that, I kinda want to see it happening first before that one big trade happens as the cherry on top.  And I don't want Boyd or someone like him who doesn't have the track record of sustaining half a season of success unless you get him on the cheap.  

In other words, I am fine with getting 2 solid free agent starters and some solid improvement in the win column.  then another strong push prior to 2021.  Having a bunch of farm hands pushing to AA/AAA over the next year will have a huge impact in their value on the trade market.  

So I say wait for that big trade until prior to 2021 unless someone you can't pass up comes available for a reasonable cost.  

Well, recall that when the deadline passed, there was some comment Eppler made about pursuing SP who had something like 4, 5, or 6 years of control left. That rules out almost everyone reportedly available - Ray, Stroman, Thor, even Boyd - and likely means he was working more on guys like Zac Gallen and Trevor Richards from Miami. 

And I think that's really where his trade efforts will be focused - he will be looking for an enormously cheap, controllable, talented young arm that hasn't ascended to a price that he won't pay (i.e. Marsh) but rather bank on a young, fairly unknown talent who has yet to breakout. Eppler got a lot of really good starts from pitchers like Pena, Bridwell, J.C. Ramirez, and now maybe even Dillon Peters, all without really giving up much of anything. 

Right now, the Angels have a lot of "eh maybe?" prospects - Taylor Ward, Jose Rojas, Jared Walsh, Jahmai Jones, Michael Hermosillo, maybe even Matt Thaiss - that could work out, or they might not. Really hard to tell with any of them, either due to MLB struggles, PCL over-inflating stats, lack of MLB playing time, challenges at AA for Jones - which to me, seem like the perfect type of prospect to surrender for a fairly unknown/breakout candidate controlled SP. Sure, it might backfire, but it isn't Marsh, Suarez, and Thaiss for Boyd. There's risk for both sides. For once, Billy Eppler has something he can spend on pitching in a trade for a potential breakout arm - he just needs to find a match. I'm confident that the work they've done to find Pena, Bridwell, Ramirez, and Peters could be applied to other teams AAA/rookie #5 guys and now, with some prospects to spend, he can find that guy. This is the best way to address a need cheaply while using up some of our fairly redundant and questionable prospect stock.

I really think the Angels were aggressively after Zac Gallen - who has been phenomenal this year for MIA/ARI in a dozen starts - and was really not projected to be this good, this quick. The Diamondbacks gave up Chisholm, who really could have only been matched by the Angels offering Marsh or something like Rengifo/Jones/Fletcher plus a second quality prospect - certainly too much for Eppler at that time. Aaron Sanchez was also a target supposedly, and I think he too would have made sense.

In my mind, the Angels trade talks will be less on the Boyd/Ray types, and more on guys like John Means, Dinelson Lamet, Braves, Tigers, Marlins, and Padres AAA SP, Jake Junis, Brad Keller, Spencer Turnbull, etc....guys who should come with an MLB-ready #4-5 floor, but could ascend to a #2-#3 within a season or two. Guys like Dylan Bundy sort of fit that mold too, but don't come with the control/cheap salary. Trying to buy someone the year before a breakout, not the year(s) after, like Boyd and Ray.

Edited September 5, 2019 by totdprods

[angelsnationtalk]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Whew, there's lot in here. I hear all you're saying, really, I do, but...

• 1) Upton might be worse at 1B than LF. Fletcher has spoken about this. 1B is involved in a lot more plays than LF is, and Upton doesn't have the best hands/reaction. This could be a mess. 
• 2) Adams is making a heck of a case to be a Top 100 prospect, IMO, as soon as this offseason, and he's moving almost as quickly as Jo Adell did - do not discount him being MLB ready as soon as 2021, at least in a temporary capacity due to injury or struggle.
• 3) The Angels still have Brian Goodwin for the next three seasons, and while he's maybe been lucky this year, I think he's at worst, a league-average outfielder, which is fine. Also, they got him for nothing, off waivers. Cheap, average productive MLB OFs are relatively easy to find right now.
• 4) Upton, Trout, Adell, and Goodwin should have no problem covering 95% of the OF games on schedule in 2020, 2021, and 2022, barring injury. That doesn't leave much room for Marsh.
• 5) If there is injury? Don't rule out getting something from Lund, Hermosillo, or Martinez in the interim. J.B. Shuck and Reggie Willits have given us huge lifts for a full season in recent years. It can happen. Also, Jahmai Jones can play outfield and will probably be on the 40-man next year. Fletcher, Ward, even Thaiss, Walsh, or Rengifo all could wind up slotting into LF for significant playing time as well - if the situation calls for it.
• 6) Knowles and Deveaux have to be added to the 40-man in Upton's final year under contract, so they're already back-up depth for him in 2022, barring any major stalls in their development. 
• 7) Also, it's not entirely unreasonable that Upton doesn't really decline, and remains a steady .250/.340/.460/.800, 25-30 HR guy with 2-4 WAR annually. Marsh won't bump that, or Trout, or Adell in that scenario.

If Brandon Marsh helps get the Angels a significant pitching addition via trade - as in, if he makes up 50% of the value in a deal, and the Angels are getting back an arm with near-future #2 upside and MLB-ready #3-4 floor, and said arm has years of control, and as a result, a cheap arb. pricetag, I think that arm would be of far more value to the Angels then Marsh, who might not even get playing time the next 2-3 years if everyone stays healthy and productive.

Yeah, this does make good sense as well. Makes a lot of sense, actually.

As Taylor Blake Ward pointed out, he does think Jordyn Adams is a breakout candidate for 2020. Adams just needs to full out a bit more and add some power and arm strength. I'm obsessed with Adams' speed and I'd love to see him put on some weight to see how it all adds up. If he becomes a stud then I wouldn't mind a Marsh trade. It still does worry me.

I know Eppler is smart with prospects and trades so I'd assume it'd have to be a #2 type controllable arm in order for him to deal away Marsh.

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, RBM said:

Eppler gets a lot of credit for his draft picks and improving the farm system but his very first pick in 2016 was a blunder. 

He chose Matt Thaiss, a catcher out of UVA. Later in the first round the Dodgers chose Will Smith, a catcher out of Louisville.

Eppler started his first draft by choosing the wrong catcher from the ACC!!

Can you imagine how much better this team would be positioned if Eppler had made the right choice in the first round of the 2016 draft.

Yeah, he had that vaunted Angels scouting department there to help him. 

Remember, the guy walked onto the job on an organization that had done nothing to prep for strong drafting in like a decade. If anything, we should be happy Matt Thaiss has reached the majors. 

The expectations that he'd get the job and within a few months have hired proven, successful, turnkey crack team of amateur scouts, minor league development staff, and data analysts with ironclad systems is hilarious. 

Don't forget, he was basically a rookie GM walking into an empty broom closet with some calculators and VHS tapes with a plan to modernize our entire org. No one can fix that months ahead of their first-draft. 

He's made efforts to improve and correct and hire new staff and adapt every offseason based off what has worked and not worked the year prior. He isn't sitting idly by with the guys he hired in 2016. Patience.

[angelsnationtalk]

57 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Well, recall that when the deadline passed, there was some comment Eppler made about pursuing SP who had something like 4, 5, or 6 years of control left. That rules out almost everyone reportedly available - Ray, Stroman, Thor, even Boyd - and likely means he was working more on guys like Zac Gallen and Trevor Richards from Miami. 

And I think that's really where his trade efforts will be focused - he will be looking for an enormously cheap, controllable, talented young arm that hasn't ascended to a price that he won't pay (i.e. Marsh) but rather bank on a young, fairly unknown talent who has yet to breakout. Eppler got a lot of really good starts from pitchers like Pena, Bridwell, J.C. Ramirez, and now maybe even Dillon Peters, all without really giving up much of anything. 
 

This is the part that worries me with his "buy low" mentality. Sure, he might find someone for the back end of the rotation, but that won't get us anywhere near being a contender. As you know, I love Marsh, but if we're trading any talent then it should be for a #2 starter that's controllable. If not, then he should wait until such trade can be done. 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

This is exactly why I'm a little freaked out by all the posts saying we need to sign two or three of the top FAs. If it backfires it really puts Eppler in a corner for 2-3 years as we'd be tight with Pujols, Upton, Simmons, maybe Cole and the mid-tier FAs clogging things up, and probably costs him his job, and stalls out the farm's progress as young guys don't get key developmental playing time.

• 1) Cole, undoubtedly, top priority. If we're so lucky to get him, I don't think shopping mid-tier should be the focus. Go for the super-cheap one-year guys and cross your fingers. Wacha, Nova, Roark, Moore, Miley, etc. Don't risk clogging the payroll/rotation on mid-tier FA SPs, not after we just landed the big prize of the offseason - and another huge commitment to the books. Strongly consider a trade for a long-term, cheap, relatively young SP with some potential, be it Boyd or Bundy or Junis or Alcantara or whatever.
• 2) Miss out on Cole? Sure, go after Wheeler, Ryu, Hamels, Bumgarner, one of the guys that is close to a #1. We need it. If we get one, I still don't think signing another mid-range guy makes sense - unless the deal for that first FA SP was favorable. If Wheeler is 3/$30m? Great, sign two! If he's more like 4/$68m, then I'd say best bet is go back to the cheap one-years or trade market. 
• 3) Miss out on all of the top arms? Now it might be time to consider locking in two or three mid-to-low range FAs - Pineda, Odorizzi, Gibson, Roark, Miley, Moore, Ross, Hellickson - and perhaps look at bullpen, offense, catcher help. Roll the dice with the kids and rebound vets - again - and hope for better luck next offseason with Ray, Stroman, Paxton, Minor, Strasburg, Tanaka, Walker. 

Fixing all of the rotation woes via FA this winter seems a really bad recipe.

If panicking to do so, yes.   But if the money works out fine and they get Cole plus one durable mid-rotation guy, then they likely won't need to do a lot after 2020.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Whew, there's lot in here. I hear all you're saying, really, I do, but...

• 1) Upton might be worse at 1B than LF. Fletcher has spoken about this. 1B is involved in a lot more plays than LF is, and Upton doesn't have the best hands/reaction. This could be a mess. 
• 2) Adams is making a heck of a case to be a Top 100 prospect, IMO, as soon as this offseason, and he's moving almost as quickly as Jo Adell did - do not discount him being MLB ready as soon as 2021, at least in a temporary capacity due to injury or struggle.
• 3) The Angels still have Brian Goodwin for the next three seasons, and while he's maybe been lucky this year, I think he's at worst, a league-average outfielder, which is fine. Also, they got him for nothing, off waivers. Cheap, average productive MLB OFs are relatively easy to find right now.
• 4) Upton, Trout, Adell, and Goodwin should have no problem covering 95% of the OF games on schedule in 2020, 2021, and 2022, barring injury. That doesn't leave much room for Marsh.
• 5) If there is injury? Don't rule out getting something from Lund, Hermosillo, or Martinez in the interim. J.B. Shuck and Reggie Willits have given us huge lifts for a full season in recent years. It can happen. Also, Jahmai Jones can play outfield and will probably be on the 40-man next year. Fletcher, Ward, even Thaiss, Walsh, or Rengifo all could wind up slotting into LF for significant playing time as well - if the situation calls for it.
• 6) Knowles and Deveaux have to be added to the 40-man in Upton's final year under contract, so they're already back-up depth for him in 2022, barring any major stalls in their development. 
• 7) Also, it's not entirely unreasonable that Upton doesn't really decline, and remains a steady .250/.340/.460/.800, 25-30 HR guy with 2-4 WAR annually. Marsh won't bump that, or Trout, or Adell in that scenario.

If Brandon Marsh helps get the Angels a significant pitching addition via trade - as in, if he makes up 50% of the value in a deal, and the Angels are getting back an arm with near-future #2 upside and MLB-ready #3-4 floor, and said arm has years of control, and as a result, a cheap arb. pricetag, I think that arm would be of far more value to the Angels then Marsh, who might not even get playing time the next 2-3 years if everyone stays healthy and productive.

I would much rather trade Upton after 2020 (eating half of the salary, about $25 million over 2 years), then to trade Marsh.     If the power develops, the Halos could have very close to a 5 tools guy.   Guys like Marsh are the ones you really don't want to trade.

I'd rather wait to see how 2020 plays out.   If Adams becomes a plum Cal League All-Star, and the Halos still need that years of control pitcher after 2020, then it's time to think about a possible Marsh deal.    Still apprehensive about it, though.

[floplag]

9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They tried to get a bunch of guys, some of whom ended up being worse deals than Harvey and Cahill (like Happ and Eovaldi).

Transactions are 2 sided. You can pick who you want but he’s got to pick you too.

Essentially Eppler decided that if he couldn’t get the pitchers he wanted, he was better off waiting till next year (ie this winter).

I understand, plus im on record for saying that there wasnt much that off season i was that fond of signing, but youre limiting the discussion to just that one scope of last off seasons FAs and ignoring all other options that he may have had in recent years such as trades or upgrading other spots to make other guys expendable to shift the roster around.

This season was an absolute worst case scenario on almost every level.  Weve seen pics of your dog as much as weve seen highlights.   Last off season it was well maybe the WC or "being in the mix" this year if everything goes right, it didnt, it never does.  Now its well maybe the WC next year... its the same conversation.    This was my worst nightmare all along that the window just keeps getting pushed out.  

Honestly right now when do you see this club challenging? 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

The Astros have gotten their starting rotation through shrewd trades for the most part. Although the traded 3 of their top 5 prospects and a lesser one for Grienke, leaving their farm system worse than ours ATM. The have 2 prospects left in the top 100, Tucker and Whitley. Whitley has struggled since being promoted above high A ball

Whitley has also really struggled to stay healthy.   That's not a good sign.

[totdprods]

9 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

This is the part that worries me with his "buy low" mentality. Sure, he might find someone for the back end of the rotation, but that won't get us anywhere near being a contender. As you know, I love Marsh, but if we're trading any talent then it should be for a #2 starter that's controllable. If not, then he should wait until such trade can be done. 

That's because it is a secondary or tertiary move!!!

Go look at Houston or the Dodgers or Yankees, they're loaded with buy-low deals that worked out. Look at our own Goodwin, La Stella, Noe, Peters, Pena.
None of these guys were acquired with the expectation, at least publicly, that they'd become key pieces, and all had little track record to suggest they'd become key pieces.

Dodgers:

• Enrique Hernandez (1.5 WAR) was a throw-in as part of the Heaney-Haren-Gordon-Hatcher deal. 
• Chris Taylor (2.1 WAR) was acquired for a AAA flameout SP pitcher.
• Dylan Floro (1.1 WAR last year) was a minor trade involving other minor players, involving international bonus slot money.
• Casey Sadler (0.4 WAR) was plucked after a DFA for a fringe minor leaguer.

Astros:

• Yordan Alvarez (3 WAR) for a decent MLB reliever.
• Aledmys Diaz (0.7 WAR) for a AAA SP they didn't have 40-man room for.
• Jake Marisnick (1.5 WAR) throw-in on a larger deal involving Martes and Moran for Jarred Cosart.
• Brad Peacock (1.3 WAR) as part of a deal for Jed Lowrie, coming over with Stassi and Carter.
• Will Harris (1.6 WAR) was a waiver claim.

Yankees:

• Aaron Hicks (4.7 WAR last year) was a 4th OF acquired for a back-up catcher.
• Cameron Maybin (1.1 WAR) was bought from the Indians AAA team.
• Mike Tauchman (3.3 WAR) was a 4A bat acquired for a finge minor leaguer.
• Gio Urshela (3.5 WAR) was bought from Toronto's AAA team.
• Encarnacion (0.5 WAR) was simply eating salary and returning a prospect to Seattle.
• Luke Voit (1.8 WAR) was acquired using spare relief parts on the DFA fringes.
• Tommy Kahnle (1.0 WAR) was a throw-in with Frazier and Robertson for some NYY riff-raff and Clippard.

Sometimes, I think the Angels could have traded Brandon Marsh for Lucas Giolito last year and this board would have been livid about surrendering a top prospect for an MLB SP who had a 6.00+ ERA without taking a moment to consider all the other ramifications.

The Angels should be out there hunting for the next Lucas Giolito, or, failing that, the next Caleb Smith or Zac Gallen. No, it's not the crowning offseason move, but it's the type of trade that, paired with one very good FA signing and some health luck, could make the Angels 90-95 game winners in 2020.

 

[angelsnationtalk]

57 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Well, recall that when the deadline passed, there was some comment Eppler made about pursuing SP who had something like 4, 5, or 6 years of control left. That rules out almost everyone reportedly available - Ray, Stroman, Thor, even Boyd - and likely means he was working more on guys like Zac Gallen and Trevor Richards from Miami. 

And I think that's really where his trade efforts will be focused - he will be looking for an enormously cheap, controllable, talented young arm that hasn't ascended to a price that he won't pay (i.e. Marsh) but rather bank on a young, fairly unknown talent who has yet to breakout. Eppler got a lot of really good starts from pitchers like Pena, Bridwell, J.C. Ramirez, and now maybe even Dillon Peters, all without really giving up much of anything. 
 

This is the part that worries me with his "buy low" mentality. Sure, he might find someone for the back end of the rotation, but that won't get us anywhere near being a contender. As you know, I love Marsh, but if we're trading any talent then it should be for a #2 starter that's controllable. If not, then he should wait until such trade can be done. 

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I would much rather trade Upton after 2020 (eating half of the salary, about $25 million over 2 years)

This is another one of those assumptions, like Upton moving to 1B, that I just can't take seriously until there's some sort of actual hint that it might come true. I guess this is the new "Albert will retire early"..."Upton will move to 1B" or "Upton will waive his NTC" just because you don't want him here anymore. Safer to bank on that stuff not happening unless there's some evidence that puts it on the table. 

Upton's streaky as hell, always has been, but almost always finishes with consistent numbers. Adding to the fact he missed the first half, returned to a team that lost a key player weeks later, and is prone to long cold spells, I'm not really seeing much reason to worry about him yet.

If Upton is traded, my guess it won't be until he's down to his final season (or in the final season) and to a contender making a playoff drive. I think he'd be down to waive his NTC then, as he'll be wanting that ring with his career starting to set into the sun. Remember, he took some cajoling to waive his NTC already once to come here. I don't think he'll waive it that easily. 

[angelsnationtalk]

16 minutes ago, totdprods said:

That's because it is a secondary or tertiary move!!!

Go look at Houston or the Dodgers or Yankees, they're loaded with buy-low deals that worked out. Look at our own Goodwin, La Stella, Noe, Peters, Pena.
None of these guys were acquired with the expectation, at least publicly, that they'd become key pieces, and all had little track record to suggest they'd become key pieces.

Dodgers:

• Enrique Hernandez (1.5 WAR) was a throw-in as part of the Heaney-Haren-Gordon-Hatcher deal. 
• Chris Taylor (2.1 WAR) was acquired for a AAA flameout SP pitcher.
• Dylan Floro (1.1 WAR last year) was a minor trade involving other minor players, involving international bonus slot money.
• Casey Sadler (0.4 WAR) was plucked after a DFA for a fringe minor leaguer.

Astros:

• Yordan Alvarez (3 WAR) for a decent MLB reliever.
• Aledmys Diaz (0.7 WAR) for a AAA SP they didn't have 40-man room for.
• Jake Marisnick (1.5 WAR) throw-in on a larger deal involving Martes and Moran for Jarred Cosart.
• Brad Peacock (1.3 WAR) as part of a deal for Jed Lowrie, coming over with Stassi and Carter.
• Will Harris (1.6 WAR) was a waiver claim.

Yankees:

• Aaron Hicks (4.7 WAR last year) was a 4th OF acquired for a back-up catcher.
• Cameron Maybin (1.1 WAR) was bought from the Indians AAA team.
• Mike Tauchman (3.3 WAR) was a 4A bat acquired for a finge minor leaguer.
• Gio Urshela (3.5 WAR) was bought from Toronto's AAA team.
• Encarnacion (0.5 WAR) was simply eating salary and returning a prospect to Seattle.
• Luke Voit (1.8 WAR) was acquired using spare relief parts on the DFA fringes.
• Tommy Kahnle (1.0 WAR) was a throw-in with Frazier and Robertson for some NYY riff-raff and Clippard.

Sometimes, I think the Angels could have traded Brandon Marsh for Lucas Giolito last year and this board would have been livid about surrendering a top prospect for an MLB SP who had a 6.00+ ERA without taking a moment to consider all the other ramifications.

The Angels should be out there hunting for the next Lucas Giolito, or, failing that, the next Caleb Smith or Zac Gallen. No, it's not the crowning offseason move, but it's the type of trade that, paired with one very good FA signing and some health luck, could make the Angels 90-95 game winners in 2020.

 

There's definitely some traction with that. It's definitely risky, as is anything given not knowing how good someone like Marsh could become. But I do see your point. 

[Chuck]

10 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They tried to get a bunch of guys, some of whom ended up being worse deals than Harvey and Cahill (like Happ and Eovaldi).

Transactions are 2 sided. You can pick who you want but he’s got to pick you too.

Essentially Eppler decided that if he couldn’t get the pitchers he wanted, he was better off waiting till next year (ie this winter).

While this is true, Eppler cannot use this excuse again this offseason. 

You hear all the time that a player would like to go here or there, but money talks. Eppler & Arte need to make it happen. I don't give a rats ass if Boras is their agent. 

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

There's definitely some traction with that. It's definitely risky, as is anything given not knowing how good someone like Marsh could become. But I do see your point. 

That was 2018 Marsh I was referencing. 2019 Marsh isn't being dealt for anything less than a clear-cut MLB #2 SP, like a Robbie Ray or Stroman or Thor, or a guy with #4 floor-#2 ceiling and control/cheap arb. price, like a Boyd, and only then if he makes up majority of the value we give up.

This is more about buying a really young, cheap SP who has legit talent but might not look it at all right now. Ironically, Giolito's White Sox have three talented young arms that look bad based off their counting stats - Dylan Cease, Dylan Covey, Reynaldo Lopez - but I'd be looking at any one of them if we could swap out something like Jones, Ward, Jackson, Bradish types. This board would freak that we got a guy with a 6.00 ERA (like Giolito last year) but if that arm came together quickly and found their 3.30 ERA ceiling (like Giolito this year) it'd be a huge lift to the rotation...in addition to signing one top arm like Cole, Wheeler, Ryu, Bumgarner, Hamels, and potentially much better value than signing a second mid-tier arm like Odorizzi, Pineda, Wacha, Gibson, etc.

Edited September 5, 2019 by totdprods