Ken Rosenthal: No more excuses for Eppler

[Blarg]

@Dochalo I got through the first sentence before adding a like to your post because I knew where it was headed and I knew you were going to explain it fully.

Now if you'll excuse me I'm going back to read the entire post.

[Claude]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

For me his market value is around 6/$180M, but I suspect that he's going to get 7/$210M. I'd be OK, if a bit worried, if the Angels sign him for that. But more than $30M is scary. I suppose 5/$175M is workable.

This is going to be an Arte decision. I think he’s still going to try to work out a lease deal / land deal with Anaheim. If that all works out you’ll see happy spending Arte again. If a deal with Anaheim doesn’t go his way we could see a more conservative Arte and he’ll give Eppler figure X to work with. 

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Wrong.

 

2 minutes ago, nate said:

Right

Everytime this happens this song plays in my head..

 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Cole is the ideal, but I agree that adding front end pitching period is job #1.  This is 100% why I said they can't make Cole the focus and let other guys slip away.   Make contact, tell him he's their main target then sign the next best pitcher on your list.

The interesting thing will be to see if the guys behind Cole wait to see where the Cole market is heading before making their own deals.

they know they're going to need more than one guy.  So going out and getting at least one to get the ball rolling might actually be something more enticing to Cole anyway.  

I'm most concerned about jumping the gun on a high end trade.  As much as I'd like to see them shore up a rotation spot for the next 4-5 years with a controlled guy who has front of the rotation upside, those tend to cost huge and we really don't have the farm depth to cover that right now.  Redundancy to cover aging, declining or poor performing players is why teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees have succeeded of late.  They've generally kept their farm intact.  

They're gonna need 15-20 wins to close the gap from this year to next.  That's a shit ton and while two or three starters could make up for most of that, I kinda want to see it happening first before that one big trade happens as the cherry on top.  And I don't want Boyd or someone like him who doesn't have the track record of sustaining half a season of success unless you get him on the cheap.  

In other words, I am fine with getting 2 solid free agent starters and some solid improvement in the win column.  then another strong push prior to 2021.  Having a bunch of farm hands pushing to AA/AAA over the next year will have a huge impact in their value on the trade market.  

So I say wait for that big trade until prior to 2021 unless someone you can't pass up comes available for a reasonable cost.  

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, Dochalo said:

I'm most concerned about jumping the gun on a high end trade.  As much as I'd like to see them shore up a rotation spot for the next 4-5 years with a controlled guy who has front of the rotation upside, those tend to cost huge and we really don't have the farm depth to cover that right now.  Redundancy to cover aging, declining or poor performing players is why teams like the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees have succeeded of late.  They've generally kept their farm intact.  

We are 100% on the same page on this.   100%

[Blarg]

23 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'm also leery about the "Cole or bust" view. While I agree that the Angels really need to improve their rotation, there is more than one road to Rome.

I have to say that you are right that, putting all of the attention to this one pitcher is a mistake. There are 29 other teams that can justify paying Cole whatever salary he demands. Many will drop out for plenty of reasons but I would say the Angels will be squaring off with 10 other teams, four of which will be dead serious. That's a lot of competition and having his favorite catcher isn't buying down the years or dollars.

Love to have him, don't expect him to make this team his home. 

[Blarg]

15 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I think Cole will have at least four teams with large amounts of money on him. 

I swear I didn't read your post before making mine. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I swear I didn't read your post before making mine. 

If I had a buck for every time, you, Etiin, Doc, or AJ said something I had finished typing out then I'd be signing Cole this winter.   Been there, done that.

[Blarg]

Just so we are clear I was the first to coin, Relievers are flakes.

[Inside Pitch]

Noted!

[Angel Oracle]

Eppler has masterfully played the relievers card, mostly on limited salaries.    Really only Allen has flaked out totally, since 2016. 

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

We are 100% on the same page on this.   100%

Yep. I'm particularly leery about trading Marsh. Eppler won't trade Adell pretty much no matter what, but I've been worried about him trading Marsh for a year or two now - especially after he picked Adams. While I think his probable outcome is probable as a good player to borderline star (say, 3-4 WAR range), Marsh could sneak up on us as a bonafide star (4-6 WAR). I just love the thought of that Marsh-Trout-Adell outfield.

 

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

The successful free agents. Damn your dumz.

The fact that his top target in the SP dept was Nate Eovaldi concerns me. 

Corbin has been every worth the money. 

Would have been great to lock him up and then Cole the following year.

[beatlesrule]

25 minutes ago, nate said:

Right

Off the top of my head, Big FA deal Max Scherzer. 1 year deal Wade Miley.

So yeah, you're wrong.

[totdprods]

I’m still open to 2020 being another development year, and I still think 2020 has been intended to be that for awhile. 

But I do think Eppler will make a bold step or two either this offseason or at the deadline - there is a slight chance his job depends on it, and I imagine he will want to make a defining move regardless of how the season is going. 

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Blarg said:

I have to say that you are right that, putting all of the attention to this one pitcher is a mistake. There are 29 other teams that can justify paying Cole whatever salary he demands. Many will drop out for plenty of reasons but I would say the Angels will be squaring off with 10 other teams, four of which will be dead serious. That's a lot of competition and having his favorite catcher isn't buying down the years or dollars.

Love to have him, don't expect him to make this team his home. 

and a couple of those teams could be and are likely to be in a better position to win.  The dogs have steered clear of large FA pitcher contracts, but they are willing to go higher AAV for a shorter term.  

I hope the Astros win the WS this year so Cole already that in his back pocket.  I am sure he'll want to win wherever he goes, but maybe it then becomes slightly less of a priority than say helping the team he rooted for as a kid win it all.  

I think a few of the high budget teams are gonna be eyeing him this off season.  Our only advantage over them is that those teams don't have to spend as much to be good.  They can remain a little more conservative.  

Teams like washington, atlanta, minnesota, and a few other all have payroll room (at least seemingly) in addition to teams like the Yanks, Dogs.  And you never know about someone like the Padres.  

It's gonna be a tough go.  

[Claude]

1 minute ago, beatlesrule said:

Off the top of my head, Big FA deal Max Scherzer. 1 year deal Wade Miley.

So yeah, you're wrong.

Arte didn’t increase the budget last season so Eppler had pocket change to work with. He would probably be an amazing GM if he worked for the Red Sox, Dodgers or Yankees. 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Calzone 2 said:

Arte didn’t increase the budget last season so Eppler had pocket change to work with. He would probably be an amazing GM if he worked for the Red Sox, Dodgers or Yankees. 

there was no one worth increasing it on last year except maybe Corbin who wanted to play out east and got a full extra year from the Nats above what others were willing to spend.  

we're finally in the range where spending more might actually propel this team into a playoff spot.  We haven't been there for awhile.  

[Claude]

13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

there was no one worth increasing it on last year except maybe Corbin who wanted to play out east and got a full extra year from the Nats above what others were willing to spend.  

we're finally in the range where spending more might actually propel this team into a playoff spot.  We haven't been there for awhile.  

I really would’ve loved to have seen what this team would looked like today if Arte would’ve hired Eppler or Oppenheimer or an Epstein instead of Dipoto. If he would’ve stayed away from Pujols and Hamilton and just let his GM do his job. I really do think Eppler has a brain but Arte has limited his resources because of his own bad decisions. I just wish Arte would’ve stayed out of it. Eppler is still treading water and I think he still needs another 2-3 seasons to get this team into serious contention. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Calzone 2 said:

I really would’ve loved to have seen what this team would looked like today if Arte would’ve hired Eppler or Oppenheimer or an Epstein instead of Dipoto. If he would’ve stayed away from Pujols and Hamilton and just let his GM do his job. I really do think Eppler has a brain but Arte has limited his resources because of his own bad decisions. I just wish Arte would’ve stayed out of it. Eppler is still treading water and I think he still needs another 2-3 seasons to get this team in serious contention. 

most GM's have restrictions.  It's part of the job.  

Arte got involved because he didn't trust Tony Reagins and rightfully so.  Then it seemed to spiral from there.  This org had an unconventional leadership hierarchy for a long time.  Scioscia had a lot of influence on Arte and the way the team was built for a very long time.  Not saying he made the moves himself, but he had a lot more input than most managers.  Frankly, it worked pretty well with Stoneman at the helm but I think he had a much more clear direction of what he wanted to do.  

We are who we are and we are where we are.  This team could be in a black hole of ineptitude as we were clearly headed in that direction and fast.  Dipoto quit.  He took his ball and went home.  So he essentially forced the change which might not have recognized for a couple more years had he be willing to continue.  We'd likely have had better records at the major league level but the well would be completely dry and I am doubtful that Trout would have wanted to stick around for that.  

While the WS in 2002 was great, the template we should be emulating for the future is 2004-2009.  6 years of a primarily home grown core of players with the occasional FA supplement.   

Think if 2019 as similar to 2003.  A solid core of players with a terrible starting staff, a good pen, and an offense with some potential.  I think our current offense is a bit better but that pen was better.  A couple of key FA additions and the team got better in a hurry.  Then came an influx of some young guys to supplement.  It's not exactly the same, but it shows you that a team with a solid core of players can get better in a hurry with the right additions.  It might not be 2020 where it all comes together, but a sustainable run is what we're looking for.  

Even if Harvey, Cahill, Allen, and Lucroy were all all stars this year, it may have put the team in a position to grab a wild card.  Maybe, and that would have been great but we'd actually be in the exact same position we are going to be entering the 2019/20 off season.  Needing a boat load of pitching.  

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, Baghdad Strad said:

Correct, how much money is he worth?  At what point will you not blame Eppler if he doesn’t sign him?  Is it $32 million a season, $35 million, $38 million?  Is it 5 years?  6 years?  7 years?  

I think we're honestly looking between $25-$30M/yr. Weather it looks like $200M/7yr, $150M/5yr or $175M/6yr I would be surprised if he pushed over $30M/yr. Trout took $36M/year so that leads me to believe everyone below him is fairly distant from pushing $30M-$35M/yr. Specially someone who pitches every 5th day. BUT and this is a big BUT... He could take around $25M with incentives on his contract like Max Scherzer has:

• All Star: Gold Glove, Silver Slugger: $100,000
• LCS MVP: $150,000
• WS MVP: $250,000
• MVP, Cy Young Award: $500,000 (2nd: $250,000, 3rd: $150,000, 4th: $100,000, 5th: $75,000)

[angelsnationtalk]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

We are 100% on the same page on this.   100%

@Dochalo I am too. 

Eppler said he wanted a top farm system and to fill the holes with the financial power the Angels have. That obviously means starting pitching for this offseason and next offseason. I don't think he will trade away the farm that HE built. He knows in order to win we need to be like the Dodgers or Yankees and have a stellar farm WHILE spending money. I think we contend for WC spot in 2020, small chance at division for 2021 and then once Adell, Marsh, Soriano and a few others are ready  and warmed up then we really can dominate the 2020's. We are heading in that direction. But we also need to have a stronger chance starting in 2020 since Mike Trout signed with the Angels to win. It's time to show him. And it starts this offseason. Trout should see October baseball for the 2020 season. 

[angelsnationtalk]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yep. I'm particularly leery about trading Marsh. Eppler won't trade Adell pretty much no matter what, but I've been worried about him trading Marsh for a year or two now - especially after he picked Adams. While I think his probable outcome is probable as a good player to borderline star (say, 3-4 WAR range), Marsh could sneak up on us as a bonafide star (4-6 WAR). I just love the thought of that Marsh-Trout-Adell outfield.

 

Agree 100%. Love that trio in the outfield. Would easily be the most athletic and best outfield in baseball. I hope Marsh isn't traded. I think he's going to the AZFL to speed up his development Hopefully he'd start in AAA next year and . Adams has high upside but his size worries me. Marsh is built like a stud. The only thing that concerns me is aside from Adell, Marsh is building a lot of value. He's easily back in the top 100 prospects for next season and he'd be the centerpiece for a top arm if we swung a trade. Hopefully out other infield prospects raise their stock so they can be used as the centerpiece. Just hope Eppler doesn't fall too in love with Upton. Watching him in the outfield gives me ulcers. 

[angelsnationtalk]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I’m still open to 2020 being another development year, and I still think 2020 has been intended to be that for awhile. 

But I do think Eppler will make a bold step or two either this offseason or at the deadline - there is a slight chance his job depends on it, and I imagine he will want to make a defining move regardless of how the season is going. 

I'm open for it if we make a WC spot for 2020. If not then it's not worth it. Here's my timeline:

2020- WC spot

2021- WC spot, with better shot for division

2022-2026 Division titles

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I'm open for it if we make a WC spot for 2020. If not then it's not worth it. Here's my timeline:

2020- WC spot

2021- WC spot, with better shot for division

2022-2026 Division titles

I think that’s perfectly reasonable. I can see 2021 having been, at one time, a season with higher expectations than WC still, but the deluge of injuries and death of Skaggs have necessitated the advancement of so many young pitchers that I think we might actually be almost a year ‘ahead of schedule’, and they’ve performed decently enough that Eppler has now altered course enough to a point where we’re relying on youngsters more in 2019-2021 than was anticipated.