Payroll and Roster management for 2019/20

[Docwaukee]

As it stands right now, this is what I see:

Albert +1m
Upton +3m
Simmons +2m
Calhoun buyout +1m
Heaney +2.5m (estimate)
Tropeano +0.5mil
Bedrosian +1m 
Robles +2m
La Stella +2m
Middleton +0.5m
Stassi +1m
Smith +1m
Noe +1m

So conservatively, I would call it about +19m in arb increases, new arb, and fixed salary increases.  

Calhoun -10.5m
Cahill -9m
Garcia -1.7m
Skaggs -3.7m (would have been +2-3 on top of that)
Harvey -11m
Allen -8.5m 
Bour -2.5m 
Lucroy -3.3m
JC Ramirez -2m

or about -52.2 mil.  

That's a delta of about 33.2 mil from 2019.  

Current payroll according to sportrac is about 155 mil but I am not seeing them include Trout's bonus of about 19-20 mil.  So i think it's closer to 175 mil.  Subtracting out that delta of 33.2 mil leaves commitments of about 142 mil.  I'll leave everyone the opportunity to speculate where payroll will end up.  I think it'll be around 180m or about 35-40 in possible additions for just this off season.  

Also of note are some roster management issues that are going to be encountered.  

Most of that dead money has already be jettisoned from the current roster.  Keep in mind that when the Angels report their 40 man in the off season, they have to include those that are injured.  You can't use the 40 to hide guys during that time.  

Based on the anticipated roster from the above (and that includes losing Calhoun, Bour, Cahill, Garcia off the 40 but keeping Trop, Bard, Del Pozo, Jewell, Middleton, Pena, Jose Rodriguez, Bemboom, Cozart, Ward, Walsh, Hermosillo) that would put us at 37 players without adding any by any other means (FA, trade, waiver pickup, or covered from the R5).  

Those requiring protection from the R5 as of dec 2019 include Rojas, Lund, Kruger, Jones, Justus, Ortega that could be of interest.  A couple guys who haven't be covered in the past include Luis Pena, Adrian De Horta, Jeremy Rhoades, Joe Gatto, Ryan Clark.  None of whom are likely to be protected.  

I would say that Rojas, Jones and Ortega get covered and pretty much everyone on the current keep list with maybe the exception of Ward, Walsh, Herm and Key are at risk for getting DFA'd.  So that's an additional 7 spots on the 40 man.  

I honestly think the lineup is pretty set as far as the 26 and 40 man for next year with the exception of Cozart and Bemboom.  There are easy internal options to replace Cozart whereas I see them going scrap heap on the catching side.  Could be a LHed bat for them out there but I kinda doubt it.  And of course I think we let Calhoun go.  

That 15 position players on the 40 man who are currently there plus Jones and Rojas or 17 total.  

There are currently 13 pitchers a lock for a the 40 man (not counting Ohtani who I already counted on the position player side).  Heaney, Sandoval, Suarez, Peters, Barria, Robles, Buttrey, Bedrosian, Ramirez, Canning, Anderson, Middleton, Madero.   

I think Pena will also stay as will Bard, Trop, and Ortega will get protected.  

So overall, I would expect about 6-7 new players added to the 40 man.  2-3 SP, 2-3 pen arms, a C, and  maybe a position player.  

 

 

 

[tdawg87]

I, for one, believe Angels' owner Arte Moreno will spend a significant amount of money this off-season.

[Angelsjunky]

Excellent overview, @Dochalo - thanks for writing that up. Nothing revelatory, but it does make clear the situation, in particular that the Angels have some money to spend, but not excessive amounts. In other words, we might see Cole, Odorizzi, and a few spare parts, but we won't see Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Grandal, and Rendon.

That said, I'll give a nod to tdawg in that I wouldn't be surprised if Eppler and Moreno surprise us. Not over the luxury line, but maybe higher than year's past.

[kevinb]

What we have been told by Fletcher is that it's not the average annual salary it's the actual salary for the year. If I was a betting man I would say that the salary we have typically stayed around lately is the max for Arte. Until that changes I don't see him going above it much if at all. 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Kevinb said:

What we have been told by Fletcher is that it's not the average annual salary it's the actual salary for the year. If I was a betting man I would say that the salary we have typically stayed around lately is the max for Arte. Until that changes I don't see him going above it much if at all. 

That's roughly about $160 million so that means no Cole. 

I think we're going to be surprised.

[kevinb]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That's roughly about $160 million so that means no Cole. 

I think we're going to be surprised.

The highest he's gone is $174 mil.  do you think he goes above that number?

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Excellent overview, @Dochalo - thanks for writing that up. Nothing revelatory, but it does make clear the situation, in particular that the Angels have some money to spend, but not excessive amounts. In other words, we might see Cole, Odorizzi, and a few spare parts, but we won't see Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Grandal, and Rendon.

That said, I'll give a nod to tdawg in that I wouldn't be surprised if Eppler and Moreno surprise us. Not over the luxury line, but maybe higher than year's past.

Free agency is still and always will be a bad bet.  I'm all for expanding payroll as long as it done thoughtfully.  I want two legit starters, but adding a third for more than a 1yr deal seems like too much risk after you've diluted your own pool.  Get your top two and look around.  I'm going with Cole, Wheeler and Grandal over Cole, Wheeler and Odorizzi.  The reliever pool is also pretty shallow.  I hope they don't pull another Allen.  Will Smith?  ok sure.  Otherwise I'd rather see them go reclamation on the relief side of things.  

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

What we have been told by Fletcher is that it's not the average annual salary it's the actual salary for the year. If I was a betting man I would say that the salary we have typically stayed around lately is the max for Arte. Until that changes I don't see him going above it much if at all. 

you could be right but I think he'll go a bit bigger than that this off season.  But it depends on the player(s).  If he's gonna add on, I think it'll be at the end of the off season and for a 1yr deal.  Even if they stay similar, Cole and another SP are still realistic if back loaded.  The extra will depend on what's available.  

[kevinb]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

you could be right but I think he'll go a bit bigger than that this off season.  But it depends on the player(s).  If he's gonna add on, I think it'll be at the end of the off season and for a 1yr deal.  Even if they stay similar, Cole and another SP are still realistic if back loaded.  The extra will depend on what's available.  

I think you are right with Cole I mean it makes perfect sense. But also all we have to go on is his past and his max seems to be at that 174 mark to this date. I hope you are right and he adds players. Free agency it seems as of late that it works out more for the players then it does the team itself. Here's hoping that Cole will be the outlier and not the norm when it comes to free agency and production. 

[beatlesrule]

14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Free agency is still and always will be a bad bet.

Always? I disagree.

[Claude]

48 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That's roughly about $160 million so that means no Cole. 

I think we're going to be surprised.

Tdawg if all of Arte’s high paid contracts were paying dividends and playing at a high level, I could see Arte going all in for Cole. But that’s not what’s happening. We are not just one Cole away from competing with Houston or the Yankees.

It’s the equivalent of throwing more money into the slot machine because you know that you’ve poured money into that machine already and it might hit this time, or not. 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Calzone 2

[Angelsjunky]

5 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Tdawg if all of Arte’s high paid contracts were paying dividends and playing at a high level, I could see Arte going all in for Cole. But that’s not what’s happening. We are not just one Cole away from competing with Houston or the Yankees.

It’s the equivalent of throwing more money into the slot machine because you know that you’ve poured money into that machine already and it might hit this time, or not. 

If the Angels injuries balance out (including not losing their best starter to death) and the young players continue to develop and they get at least two good #3 or better starters, then yes, I think they can be competitive. Maybe not 100 wins like the Yankees or Astros, but certainly into the 90-95 range.

[Claude]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

If the Angels injuries balance out (including not losing their best starter to death) and the young players continue to develop and they get at least two good #3 or better starters, then yes, I think they can be competitive. Maybe not 100 wins like the Yankees or Astros, but certainly into the 90-95 range.

I actually hope you’re right. We definitely need Arte to pony up like he’s never done before.

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, Calzone 2 said:

I actually hope you’re right. We definitely need Arte to pony up like he’s never done before.

You mean since 2012/13 when he signed Pujols and Wilson and then Hamilton, or 2004 when he signed Guerrero, Colon, Guillen and Escobar.

He's ponied up before in big ways, just not recently - not since the 2012-13 debacles. Hopefully he's "healed" since then, with a more even-minded GM.

[tdawg87]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

You mean since 2012/13 when he signed Pujols and Wilson and then Hamilton, or 2004 when he signed Guerrero, Colon, Guillen and Escobar.

He's ponied up before in big ways, just not recently - not since the 2012-13 debacles. Hopefully he's "healed" since then, with a more even-minded GM.

[Docwaukee]

33 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Always? I disagree.

sometimes you win the bet, but it still a bad bet.  Doesn't mean you shouldn't make the bet sometimes.  Maybe I should rephrase that there are better bets but they usually take longer to realize gain.  

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

haha!!

[beatlesrule]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

sometimes you win the bet, but it still a bad bet.  Doesn't mean you shouldn't make the bet sometimes.  Maybe I should rephrase that there are better bets but they usually take longer to realize gain.  

Always means always so yes, you should rephrase it. Max Scherzer has been worth it. Nelson Cruz has been worth it. Michael Brantley has been worth it. Plenty of other examples that have been worth it even for the Angels. Vlad was worth it. Hunter was worth it etc.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

haha!!

Haha. 

[Claude]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

You mean since 2012/13 when he signed Pujols and Wilson and then Hamilton, or 2004 when he signed Guerrero, Colon, Guillen and Escobar.

He's ponied up before in big ways, just not recently - not since the 2012-13 debacles. Hopefully he's "healed" since then, with a more even-minded GM.

Yes you can point out some significant signings over the years but is this the year Arte hits a $200M payroll?

[Angelsjunky]

Scherzer is the archetype of how you want your free agent ace to look. David Price not so much, and Price isn't even the worst case. The Red Sox signed him to be a #1 but he turned out to be a #3. It could be (and has been) worse.

Scanning through the bigger pitcher free agents of the last five years, I'd group them as follows:

Good so far, but too soon to tell: Corbin, deGrom

Not so good so far, but also too soon to tell: Eovaldi, Mikolas

 

Here are those who have pitched at least two years on big contracts, in terms of return on investment....

Great: Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw 

Good: Porcello, Lester

OK: Price, Hill, Greinke, Cueto, Samardzija

Bad: ZImmermann, Iwakuma, Arrieta, King Felix

Disastrous: Darvish, Kazmir, Shields, Bailey

 

We can quibble with where to put them, but they're probably safe +/- a tier. Of the 17 pitchers listed, only 5 have turned out to be "good" or better - in terms of value per dollar. But you could also say 10 of 17 have been OK or better. But almost half being bad or worse, isn't so good at all.

In a few years, which category will Cole belong in? Hard to say. But looking athis record, I think Price is the absolute worst-case scenario - at least within reason. I think he's got a solid chance of being at least a good investment.

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

Yes you can point out some significant signings over the years but is this the year Arte hits a $200M payroll?

$200M? No, I don't think so. But I could see $180-190M.

[Stradling]

Now that the Trout situation is taken care of Arte will go get a starter or two. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Cole is just entering his prime years, he'll be 29 all thru next year, and we've know pitcher start having there decline at 31/32 and they flatten out around 35/36. so if Cole does compare with this trend, he'll pitch like a true Ace, thru the first 2 or 3 years, than a decline from that age to 35/36 where he's more of a 3 than a true Ace. But than we also have our Scherzer's, Verlanders, and Kershaws! will Cole be one of them or at worst a Price? we don't know, but so far he has shown he's not declining, he's stayed healthy. Also player won't be getting those big 10 years contracts any more, it'll be a 6/7 year contract, which bring you thru age 36 season.

personally I think if Cole can stay healthy thru his next Contract, he will pitch like an Ace, even if that Velo dips he be more of a 2. 

 

I think a good comparison for a contract for cole could be Degrom's contract. he'll get more years and maybe less money.

[Troll Daddy]

I think the FO will go after Cole early ... maybe even put a deadline on their offer. They will give Cole a significant offer and put the ball in his court ... “either you want to play in SoCal for the Angels or we’re moving on from you”. I normally don’t like deadline offers but Boras! There’s plenty of good starting pitching to let pass by if Cole’s agent wants to drag on the whole process. It wouldn’t surprise me too if Eppler traded for a second SP. 

 I think the FO will find a way to keep the other Kole ... even if it means picking up his option. This way Eppler can always trade Calhoun at the deadline if Jo Adell is ready ... only costing the team around $7.5M to keep Calhoun with the chance to picking up a prospect or two.