Payroll and Roster management for 2019/20

[Troll Daddy]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

teams aren't overpaying out of scarcity.  Dallas Keuchel was arguably the second best starter available last year and he signed after the draft for a 1yr deal.  This is not 1999 or 2004 or even 2017.  I like Kole and want him to make a buck.  His timing, unfortunately, sucks and he's gonna get a deal appropriate with what he predecessors got last year.  

If you say so

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Troll Daddy said:

If you say so

I guess I do.  good talk.  

[Angelsjunky]

Yeah, Kole is on the one year contract plan. For less than star caliber players in their 30s, that seems to be the norm. Remember that Yasmani Grandal--who is a significantly better player than Kole, and arguably the best catcher in the post-Posey prime era--only got a year.

[tdawg87]

3 hours ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Those are a lot of “if’s”. And all of that to compete for the WC. 

Yep. Unfortunately that's the hole we are in. But going forward I think it's going to work out. Houston can't be on top forever.

[eligrba]

13 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

Yes you can point out some significant signings over the years but is this the year Arte hits a $200M payroll?

I think Arte does hit the 200 million level but not this year.  I have a hard time believing that he won't hit 200M with Ohtani, Trout, and possibly an emerging Adell on the books.

[Claude]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Yep. Unfortunately that's the hole we are in. But going forward I think it's going to work out. Houston can't be on top forever.

I think the goal is to catch the A’s. 

[Claude]

1 hour ago, eligrba said:

I think Arte does hit the 200 million level but not this year.  I have a hard time believing that he won't hit 200M with Ohtani, Trout, and possibly an emerging Adell on the books.

I don’t think Arte hits $200M unless it’s a situation where we are seriously contending near the break and we need that one piece to get us a division title. That also means that everyone else is healthy and playing at a high level. 

[Docwaukee]

13 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels ACTUAL payroll will be somewhere around $175-180M.

That probably means about $32-35M for new players, considering no significant subtractions from the current group besides Calhoun. 

Also, bear in mind that’s actual payroll, not AAV. So they could sign Cole for 6/180 and Odorizzi (or some equivalent) for 2/22 but pay them $23M and $10M in 2020. 

Pujols comes off the books in 22, so they could backload whatever they do to be paid mostly starting in 22. 

Another thing they could do to create some more space is extend Simmons, reducing his 2020 salary. They restructured Upton’s deal that way. That’s a little dicey because it’s hard to say how much more you want to give him, based on this year. The other extreme would be to trade Simmons. He’s probably the only moveable significant piece of payroll, if you just wanna go all in on pitching. 

does actual payroll include benefits?  or is it the raw number that most sites quote when the season starts that's not inclusive of that?  

I was gonna mention a Simmons re-structure where he'd get around 10 next year, 10 the following year and then 13 or 14 in each of 2021 and 22.  Something in the 4/45-50 range.  He's been so productive though, that just seems like a bit on the low side.  I think his injury plagued season might decrease his value a bit and I'm not overly excited about going from Simmons defense at SS to that of Fletcher or Rengifo.  Both of whom I feel are better suited to 3b/2b.  

The other challenge is finding the right match in trade.  Not sure there are many teams that need 1yr of a SS in exchange for a controlled starter.  Teams that would are playoff ready and don't usually have spare pitching.  There's actually a lot of good SS's out there and the good teams have them.  The brewers, mets and reds could be candidates but the brewers have no pitching to give back, the mets have Rosario who seems to be improving.  The Reds could be interesting if they decide to make another strong effort.  You aren't getting Castillo unless you expand the deal into a blockbuster and include Adell.  I just don't see the Angels moving Simmons for a minor league arm.  They would want someone ready now so it would have to be Mahle or DeSclafani.  Both of who are a bit underwhelming so far.  

I think they're more likely to extend him than trade him.  

[angelsnationtalk]

17 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

That's roughly about $160 million so that means no Cole. 

I think we're going to be surprised.

@Kevinb I think they will push a little higher to get Cole and someone else, but I don't think they open up the books higher to flirt with the tax until 2021. We can ride the tax line in 2021 knowing Pujols' contract comes off in 2022 and then Upton in 2023. 

[angelsnationtalk]

53 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I don’t think Arte hits $200M unless it’s a situation where we are seriously contending near the break and we need that one piece to get us a division title. That also means that everyone else is healthy and playing at a high level. 

Hence 2021. Pujols comes off the books and then Upton the following year which brings us back $58M. Ride the tax in 2021 and let it offset in 2022 and beyond

[angelsnationtalk]

Angels can be strong Wild Card contenders in 2020. I think they push hard for Cole and a #2-#3. But I don't think they open up the payroll fully until 2021 if they know they have a shot at contending for the division. Pujols is off the books in 2022 and Upton is gone in 2023 which saves us $58M total from both of them. If Arte were to blow the tax then it wouldn't be until 2021 allowing the exits of Pujols and Upton to offset the payroll a little. They might make a deadline deal to send them over in 2020 if everything clicks, but they won't open the season in 2020 pushing around $200M.

[angelsnationtalk]

14 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels ACTUAL payroll will be somewhere around $175-180M.

That probably means about $32-35M for new players, considering no significant subtractions from the current group besides Calhoun. 

Also, bear in mind that’s actual payroll, not AAV. So they could sign Cole for 6/180 and Odorizzi (or some equivalent) for 2/22 but pay them $23M and $10M in 2020. 

Pujols comes off the books in 22, so they could backload whatever they do to be paid mostly starting in 22. 

Another thing they could do to create some more space is extend Simmons, reducing his 2020 salary. They restructured Upton’s deal that way. That’s a little dicey because it’s hard to say how much more you want to give him, based on this year. The other extreme would be to trade Simmons. He’s probably the only moveable significant piece of payroll, if you just wanna go all in on pitching. 

I've thought about the trading Simmons situation as well. Seems like both parties probably want to stick together, but it depends on what Simmons is asking. That would determine what happens with the surplus of infield prospects we have. Unless Eppler believes Rengifo or Fletcher can take over SS, I think they'll re-sign him. Maybe Simmons would take a discount of some form as well. 

[Claude]

9 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Angels can be strong Wild Card contenders in 2020. I think they push hard for Cole and a #2-#3. But I don't think they open up the payroll fully until 2021 if they know they have a shot at contending for the division. Pujols is off the books in 2022 and Upton is gone in 2023 which saves us $58M total from both of them. If Arte were to blow the tax then it wouldn't be until 2021 allowing the exits of Pujols and Upton to offset the payroll a little. They might make a deadline deal to send them over in 2020 if everything clicks, but they won't open the season in 2020 pushing around $200M.

What’s puzzling is that we are one of the highest spending teams and our goal is a wild card. That’s failed economics. 

[Troll Daddy]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I'll predict that Kole gets 1/7 this off season.  Maybe 2/12 or 1 with an option.  

He's not getting 3 years.  He probably won't get 2.  You can sorta judge it by what he was worth at the deadline.  

My original statement was the Angels will make a effort to sign Kole ... possibly even picking up his option .

if you think that Kole can be signed for 2/12  ... then the Angels should jump on that imo

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

does actual payroll include benefits?  or is it the raw number that most sites quote when the season starts that's not inclusive of that?  

That’s the actual payroll that is the sum of their major league salaries. 

You guys really need to stop talking about the luxury tax. It has nothing to do with the Angels budget. 

[Docwaukee]

45 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That’s the actual payroll that is the sum of their major league salaries. 

You guys really need to stop talking about the luxury tax. It has nothing to do with the Angels budget. 

not sure you were assuming that I was using the lux tax number.  I haven't even paid attention to that for a long time based on what you've said like 100 times the last 3 years.  I was just curious if the real number is inclusive of benefits or not regardless of whether they are included for the CBT number.  

[Lou]

Fletch just called all of you dumbasses

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Lou said:

Fletch just called all of you dumbasses

Not all of us. 

[Pancake Bear]

3 hours ago, Calzone 2 said:

What’s puzzling is that we are one of the highest spending teams and our goal is a wild card. That’s failed economics. 

Lol, no. The Astros are the best team in baseball. They’re also the smartest organization in the league. They won’t be substantially worse next season. The Angels are still recovering from a historical gutting of a franchise. 

Obviously the goal is to win the division, but we could spend 100mil next season and we still wouldn’t be guaranteed the division, although we’d have a good shot at that point. But that would blow everyone else’s payroll out of the water.

tl;dr: Your expectations are ridiculous. 

[Angelsjunky]

13 hours ago, Vladdylonglegs said:

Those are a lot of “if’s”. And all of that to compete for the WC. 

We can only start where we are. You have every right to bitch about it endlessly, but as tdawg put it, that's the hole we found ourselves in and than Eppler is gradually pulling us out of - or at least so we can hope, this year's record aside.

The Astros are a great team. To compete with a great team takes time.  Maybe in a few years the Astros dip and the Angels win 95 games and take the division. But for now, let's start with the WC and establishing the Angels as a solid 90 win team. That is the near-term plan.

[Angelsjunky]

18 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Lol, no. The Astros are the best team in baseball. They’re also the smartest organization in the league. They won’t be substantially worse next season. The Angels are still recovering from a historical gutting of a franchise. 

Obviously the goal is to win the division, but we could spend 100mil next season and we still wouldn’t be guaranteed the division, although we’d have a good shot at that point. But that would blow everyone else’s payroll out of the water.

tl;dr: Your expectations are ridiculous. 

Nothing will guarantee the division, but signing Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Rendon, and Grandal will make it a distinct possibility. There's your $100M and probably gets the Angels to 95 wins. But the Astros could win 100 again.

So yeah, ridiculous expectations. See my post just above to Vladdylonglegs.

[Claude]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

That’s the actual payroll that is the sum of their major league salaries. 

You guys really need to stop talking about the luxury tax. It has nothing to do with the Angels budget. 

And never will. 

[Claude]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nothing will guarantee the division, but signing Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Rendon, and Grandal will make it a distinct possibility. There's your $100M and probably gets the Angels to 95 wins. But the Astros could win 100 again.

So yeah, ridiculous expectations. See my post just above to Vladdylonglegs.

Ok so what will Cole do for us if that’s all we do?

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Nothing will guarantee the division, but signing Cole, Odorizzi, Wheeler, Rendon, and Grandal will make it a distinct possibility. There's your $100M and probably gets the Angels to 95 wins. But the Astros could win 100 again.

I still go back to 2018 and look at how this team performed with Richards and Ohtani leading the rotation.  Cole instead of Richards.  Another guy to replace Skaggs. 

the pen is better.  the offense is better.  the SP depth is better.  the bench depth is better.  

Greinke has been smoke and mirrors so far and turns 36 in Oct.  

Verlander probably keeps up what he's doing but maybe not.  

Losing Cole will be a huge hit for them if they do.  

If they get another similar year from Miley, I will be very surprised.  

They should get McCullers back which will help.  

Their rotation will be anything but a sure thing for next year.  

They've also put a major hurt on their prospect depth.  

They're very smart, but I don't see them repeating what they're doing this year.  

Next year we'll be in the mix for the division or Eppler's off season moves will fail and he'll get fired.  

[beatlesrule]

I know you can pretty much never go wrong by being optimistic(unreasonable for the most part) versus realistic(negative for the most part) as people vastly prefer getting their hopes up and then being really disappointed. It seems that SOOOO many here already think Cole has signed with the Angels. Done deal. They've also convinced themselves that Arte will go crazy and spend more money than he ever has before. He got his 3 million again this year(most likely). There is no reason, IMO, that Arte doesn't stay the course and spend just enough to put that illusion of a competitive team on the field once again for 2020 to ensure he gets 3 million fans again.  That's being realistic and going off of what he does pretty much every single offseason. Again though, that is also a negative view which many here will crap all over. This team this year was built on an EXTREME level of optimism and we all see how that turned out.

People obviously have the right to think and hope that Arte spends a lot and gets the top free agents.  They had the right at the beginning of the year to think signing all those used to be good 4 years ago guys would be good again. Certain GM's try to catch lightning in a bottle and certain ones go for known quantity. Plenty of fans on this forum and out in the real world will gush over whatever Arte does or doesn't do and put a positive spin on everything no matter how foolish it may seem. For me though, to quote Ace Ventura: "fiction can be fun but I find the reference section a little more enlightening."