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39 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'm really liking the way Fangraphs ranks their top prospects.  They don't get overly hung up on a 'top 100' but ran guys by future value.  I don't necessarily agree with all their assessments on the Angles players but I like their system.  

They've got about 130 guys with 50 FV or value or higher.  Personally feel like Adams falls in that group along with Adell and Marsh.  

Adams peripherals were very encouraging in A ball this year.  He had a rough first month and then hit about .285 with a .360 obp over his next 300+ PA.  His k rate during that time was about 20% and his BB rate almost 12%.  So he's showing good discipline while still being a solid hitter.  The only thing missing is any real power at this point, but he'll fill in and get stronger over time.  The reason I am so encouraged by his progress is he's got so little baseball experience.  

Jackson has ridiculous pop but a fair way to go in terms of discipline.  He'll take a walk but from I've seen, he's highly susceptible to a breaking ball which he's yet to really have a feel for.  He's not a 50 FV guy as of yet imo and therefore doesn't deserve to be in that top 130 right now.  He's a 45+ guy imo.  

I disagree about Soriano only being a mid rotation guy if it comes together for him.  He's got top of the rotation potential.  Another 45+ FV guy imo.  

I'm a fan of FG's delivery of the information in the FV format, just not their rankings or their ability to provide any meaningful detail on lesser known prospects. They're too conservative in their numbers, and they won't ever be the first to recognize a prospect before anyone else.

FG says Adell is a FV 60, and I mostly agree with that, maybe a 65 in my book, but not too far off. But there isn't a single other player in this system that they believe will be anything more than an average regular, and that's where they are way off. They even list Rengifo as a FV 45, and he's already there as a 22 year old rookie.

I think Marsh is an FV 55, even without learning to lift the ball more. Adams too. And guys like Soriano and Chris Rodriguez, I'd call 55's as well. 

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1 minute ago, Second Base said:

I'm a fan of FG's delivery of the information in the FV format, just not their rankings or their ability to provide any meaningful detail on lesser known prospects. They're too conservative in their numbers, and they won't ever be the first to recognize a prospect before anyone else.

FG says Adell is a FV 60, and I mostly agree with that, maybe a 65 in my book, but not too far off. But there isn't a single other player in this system that they believe will be anything more than an average regular, and that's where they are way off. They even list Rengifo as a FV 45, and he's already there as a 22 year old rookie.

I think Marsh is an FV 55, even without learning to lift the ball more. Adams too. And guys like Soriano and Chris Rodriguez, I'd call 55's as well. 

yeah, they certainly don't take any chances.  

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3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Sounds like we have the same top 5 in order, Scotty.

I flip flop Jackson and Soriano pretty frequently. Despite what reported, I consider Soriano the safer pick. And the ace upside is what keeps him right there as well. Jackson has a lot to work on, but middle infielders with his kind of power at age 19 are a rarity. As high as Soriano's upside is (a healthy Garrett Richards I believe), Jackson's is still higher with the potential upside of being an ultra-athetic,  30+ HR starting shortstop/second baseman. 

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1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Man I hope Rodriguez comes back strong and healthy next year. Would be such a huge boost to our system.

He reminds me a lot of Clevinger, who Dipoto traded for freakin Vinnie Pestano.

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Just now, Second Base said:

He reminds me a lot of Clevinger, who Dipoto traded for freakin Vinnie Pestano.

Imagine if we had Clevinger. Just imagine a possible rotation of Cole, Ohtani, Clevinger, Heaney, Canning

I just pre'd. Then I realize that isn't reality and I want Dipoto to die.

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From his breakout to his injury (2014-18) Richards started 86 games, or a bit less than three full years worth (which in today's game is 30-32 starts a year). During that time he had a 9.7 fWAR, which is about 3.5 per 31 starts. In other words, that's pretty much the definition of a #2-3 starter, or a good mid-rotation type, not an ace.

So comparing Soriano to Richards isn't far off from Fangraphs, if we're doing it based on what Richards actually was, not what he could have been. He had that really good breakout year in 2014 that made it seem like he'd be at least a #2, maybe even a #1 if he continued to improve. But in the end, his body of work has been more as an injury-plagued #3.

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3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

From his breakout to his injury (2014-18) Richards started 86 games, or a bit less than three full years worth (which in today's game is 30-32 starts a year). During that time he had a 9.7 fWAR, which is about 3.5 per 31 starts. In other words, that's pretty much the definition of a #2-3 starter, or a good mid-rotation type, not an ace.

So comparing Soriano to Richards isn't far off from Fangraphs, if we're doing it based on what Richards actually was, not what he could have been. He had that really good breakout year in 2014 that made it seem like he'd be at least a #2, maybe even a #1 if he continued to improve. But in the end, his body of work has been more as an injury-plagued #3.

When I compare Soriano to Richards, I'm mostly comparing the 20 year old Soriano to the 22 year old Richards. What Richards was, and how he performed were two different things unfortunately. Richards was an ace. But after that knee injury, his body couldn't keep up with his stuff and the end result was a performance on par with a #2/3 starter, and not the ace that he was.

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12 minutes ago, Second Base said:

When I compare Soriano to Richards, I'm mostly comparing the 20 year old Soriano to the 22 year old Richards. What Richards was, and how he performed were two different things unfortunately. Richards was an ace. But after that knee injury, his body couldn't keep up with his stuff and the end result was a performance on par with a #2/3 starter, and not the ace that he was.

I get what you're saying, but I don't think it is fair or accurate to call Richards an ace (true #1). As I illustrated, his 2014 performance was close to ace but more of a #2. If he had built upon that, he could have been ace. But he didn't. 

To earn the title of an "ace" you really have to perform as an ace, not just flash ace stuff and potential.

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3 hours ago, Second Base said:

I flip flop Jackson and Soriano pretty frequently. Despite what reported, I consider Soriano the safer pick. And the ace upside is what keeps him right there as well. Jackson has a lot to work on, but middle infielders with his kind of power at age 19 are a rarity. As high as Soriano's upside is (a healthy Garrett Richards I believe), Jackson's is still higher with the potential upside of being an ultra-athetic,  30+ HR starting shortstop/second baseman. 

i am not getting too excited about our top prospects, yet. Just keeping an eye on them.  Jackson at this point, to me, seems like Sean Rodriguez when he came through the Angel's system. Hitting a lot of homers in the minors, then very few once he hits the majors.

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I would say that Richards breakout year was Ace like, his numbers were that good. You felt comfortable having him go out and compete against the very best that year. Injuries did play a big role with him after that year. But when we was healthy, he was a solid 2/3. 

I actually view Soriano as a similar pitcher if he can command his pitches . I see him more of a 2/3 than a ace, but they'll be year where he's surprise yup with those numbers.  

I also envision Canning to be more of a 3.40-3.60 ERA that gives you 150-180 innings

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8 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

i am not getting too excited about our top prospects, yet. Just keeping an eye on them.  Jackson at this point, to me, seems like Sean Rodriguez when he came through the Angel's system. Hitting a lot of homers in the minors, then very few once he hits the majors.

Good point, and i agreed it early for some guys to really see what they are. Generally the golden standard to judge a prospect, is you kind of get an idea of what kind of player your seeing once they hit single A, Once they hit AA, you get a cleaner idea of what to expect. 

Take for example Marsh:

He's in AA, and we're all getting an idea of what kind of player he's going to be. he's going to hit for average and draw some walks, but his power will determine if he's an All-start or not. Never forget that propect may bust aswell even if they exceed AA but chance decrease.

 

Than you have guy like Jone's who has a mixed year. What he's still young and he'll have another opportunity. but his stock has gone done.

So for guys like Jackson.Soriano and many other we have to wait until they reach A+ to give a valid reason. 

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12 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Good point, and i agreed it early for some guys to really see what they are. Generally the golden standard to judge a prospect, is you kind of get an idea of what kind of player your seeing once they hit single A, Once they hit AA, you get a cleaner idea of what to expect. 

Take for example Marsh:

He's in AA, and we're all getting an idea of what kind of player he's going to be. he's going to hit for average and draw some walks, but his power will determine if he's an All-start or not. Never forget that propect may bust aswell even if they exceed AA but chance decrease.

 

Than you have guy like Jone's who has a mixed year. What he's still young and he'll have another opportunity. but his stock has gone done.

So for guys like Jackson.Soriano and many other we have to wait until they reach A+ to give a valid reason. 

Not that Sean isn't a solid player. He has had a nice career as a solid utility player. But he never lived up to the prospect hype when he came through the Angel's system.

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Jackson age 19 at Orem with 270 plate appearances

Avg .277 OBP .348 SLG .643 HR 23 K% 31.9 BB% 8.9 

Middle infielder age 19 at Single-A Midwest League with 235 plate appearances

Avg .333 OBP .383 SLG .596 HR 12 K% 20.4 BB% 3.8

Similarities: Both have a lot of power. Both strike out a lot. 

Differences: Jackson makes less contact, but walks more. While Jackson is young for the league he is in, this player is even younger.

 

The player is... Javier Baez. Baez has obviously turned into a superstar over the last couple of years. Since he became a regular he has averaged .280/.318/.500

Win the lottery for Jackson .250/.340/.550? With a more likely scenario of .240/.310/.450

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8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Imagine if we had Clevinger. Just imagine a possible rotation of Cole, Ohtani, Clevinger, Heaney, Canning

I just pre'd. Then I realize that isn't reality and I want Dipoto to die.

But then we wouldn’t have gotten Vinnie Pestano. Think about it. ?

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1 hour ago, vladdy#27 said:

Jackson age 19 at Orem with 270 plate appearances

Avg .277 OBP .348 SLG .643 HR 23 K% 31.9 BB% 8.9 

Middle infielder age 19 at Single-A Midwest League with 235 plate appearances

Avg .333 OBP .383 SLG .596 HR 12 K% 20.4 BB% 3.8

Similarities: Both have a lot of power. Both strike out a lot. 

Differences: Jackson makes less contact, but walks more. While Jackson is young for the league he is in, this player is even younger.

 

The player is... Javier Baez. Baez has obviously turned into a superstar over the last couple of years. Since he became a regular he has averaged .280/.318/.500

Win the lottery for Jackson .250/.340/.550? With a more likely scenario of .240/.310/.450

Javy Baez's pedigree is what allowed him to develop into the star he is. There was a step learning curve for him at the major league level, and even to this day his plate discipline is well, undisciplined.

But the fact that he was a first round pick with those immense raw tools  meant the Cubs would let him develop and now they're reaping the benefits. Most teams don't have that sorry of patience for a struggling player.

Jackson displays similar pre-swing movement and power as a young Javy Baez, but Baez was faster and a better defender. This isn't too say Jackson is slow or bad on defense. On the contrary he has decent speed and is a much better defender than the organization originally thought. But he isn't at Baez's level, because very few are.

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Anyone know why Kyren Paris only played a few games? He hasn't played in almost a month, and it looks like the AZL season finished about a week ago.

Also, no Arol Vera this year.

One more: Is Caleb Scires anything more than a product of Orem altitude? He put up a decent line this year and could be a sleeper prospect.

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46 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyone know why Kyren Paris only played a few games? He hasn't played in almost a month, and it looks like the AZL season finished about a week ago.

Also, no Arol Vera this year.

One more: Is Caleb Scires anything more than a product of Orem altitude? He put up a decent line this year and could be a sleeper prospect.

They waited a while before even letting Paris get into a game. My guess is they had something they are working on the back fields on, and wanted him to be able to develop more physically before playing more consistently. He was not only one of the youngest players in the draft class, but his body hasn't even begun to fill in yet. He's physically on par with a freshly signed 16 year old international prospect.

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That's not actually a bad comp at all. Their minor league numbers were pretty close. They have a similar tools profile. Yelich hit .288/.365/.518 with a 154 wRC+ in 49 AA games at the same season age (21), before being called up to the Marlins.

Yelich's 2014-17 career might be about what we can expect from Marsh. 2018-19 would be amazing, but it is hard to predict that anyone will all of a sudden become one of the best players in baseball overnight. Ifwith  Marsh ends up being Yelich the 2016 version (.298/.376/.483, 21 HR, 134 wRC+, 5.4 fWAR) I'll be happy.

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