The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

There’s a difference between pushing them through the system and the player succeeding at the levels they’re assigned.  It’s worked for a handful of them.  But I don’t know how you can say that the development pace is good.  Jam Jones is young but he’s been a pro for what ? 4 years now ? Come on man.  I want it to rosy as much anyone else.  It’s good that some guys have graduated and are contributing. It’s great.  But Jesus set your expectations higher.  Some guys have graduated and the guys that you hope would slot up after them have haven’t progressed well largely.  Maybe they will.  I noted several guys that I have optimism for.  But 1 top 100 guy basically across the board from the people who watch this stuff no matter what you say.  It is what it is.  It’s not good.  

Hopefully some of these guys finish strong and give the system some hype at the end of the season. 

Im not waving off that they’ve graduated guys.  I find it disappointing that there doesn’t seem to be any stand outs following. 

No standouts, yet.  But again, a lot of that upside talent is still in the low minors.  I think Jordyn Adams is going to breakout next year and into the top 100, same with Brandon Marsh.  I also think Chris Rodriguez, Kevin Maitan, Jose Soriano and Jack Kochanowicz are all going to see their stocks rise precipitously.  Rodriguez and Soriano may even get some top 100 love as well.  It isn't to say the system next year will be better than the system this year as much as it's to say that all that really young talent in the low minors is going to develop into young talent in Advanced A and AA, except Marsh who will be in AAA. 

[UndertheHalo]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

No standouts, yet.  But again, a lot of that upside talent is still in the low minors.  I think Jordyn Adams is going to breakout next year and into the top 100, same with Brandon Marsh.  I also think Chris Rodriguez, Kevin Maitan, Jose Soriano and Jack Kochanowicz are all going to see their stocks rise precipitously.  Rodriguez and Soriano may even get some top 100 love as well.  It isn't to say the system next year will be better than the system this year as much as it's to say that all that really young talent in the low minors is going to develop into young talent in Advanced A and AA, except Marsh who will be in AAA. 

Hey man, your mouth the ears of the baseball gods.  I very much want these guys to take off obviously.  And I like all the guys you noted of course.  I can’t spell the 3rd rounder from this years name so I just didn’t bother including him.  

I am really concerned about Maitan and especially Rodriguez though.  The only one I’ve sort of given up on is Jones.  Maybe that’s unfair he is plenty young.  But he’s just been bad.  For quite a while. 

[mulwin444]

Right now, our offense is:

DH - Ohtani

C - Smith/Lucroy/Garneau

1B - Pujols/Thaiss

2B - Fletcher/Rengifo

SS - Simmons/Fletcher/Rengifo

3B - Thaiss/Fletcher

LF - Upton/Goodwin

CF - Trout

RF - Calhoun

It's likely Calhoun's option is not picked up with Adell ready to break through so our #1 prospect will contribute soon.  Apart from C, though, the offense is pretty set either due to solid enough talent or contracts rendering them immovable.  So, to me, whether or not Jam Jones is struggling in his age 21 season at AA, when he's young for the league anyway, is immaterial because even if he was lighting it up, we'd have no place to play him unless he moved to catcher.  Same with Maitan, Deveaux, Knowles, Adams, Jackson, Wilson, etc.  They have time.  As for starting pitching, Canning, Suarez, and Barria, Angels prospects who recently graduated, now make up 60% of the rotation.  Maybe Canning is the only one with top of rotation potential but Barria and Suarez are still valuable...same with Sandoval.  Considering the Angels' 2nd half  opponents (.534 combined winning percentage), it might be a good idea to stick with these guys thr rest of the way out to see what potential they have and maybe go into 2020 with something besides the uncertainty of Ohtani, Heaney and Canning and whether or not we'll sign Cole.

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

There’s a difference between pushing them through the system and the player succeeding at the levels they’re assigned.  It’s worked for a handful of them.  But I don’t know how you can say that the development pace is good.  Jam Jones is young but he’s been a pro for what ? 4 years now ? Come on man.  I want it to rosy as much anyone else.  It’s good that some guys have graduated and are contributing. It’s great.  But Jesus set your expectations higher.  Some guys have graduated and the guys that you hope would slot up after them have haven’t progressed well largely.  Maybe they will.  I noted several guys that I have optimism for.  

Spare me the condescending bullshit -- I'm a harsher critic than most and I'm anything but wanting to see things be rosy..  I'm just not ignorant of the impact age to league has both developmentally and physically.  They can't all be Acunas and Sotos.    That's partially what the Angels have been doing, pushing guys up above the typical comfort zones and seeing which ones take to it -- for Rengifo and Adell -- they took off.  For Jones he's hit a wall. 

Guess what at 21 with all of 500+ at bats above A ball, he's still on the right side of the player development scale.  Maybe now he shouldn't be looked at as being on an accelerated path to MLB, but it doesn't mean he's a full blown bust, it means at worst he's on the normal ascent to MLB.   Fletcher was 23 and posted a .695 OPS in the same league, in the same park albeit .vs different competition.  Wil Wilson, this years number one pick got hurt, when he did there was talk in prospect circles that the Angels might just choose to hold him out until next year because rookie ball would be lesser competition than he had faced in his college conference...  I'm not trying to say all is well with Jones, I'm saying that while he's failed, he's also at an age where he's not fallen behind.   

It's funny that someone is painting me as trying to paint a rosy picture when I was the guy warning that his early success in high A was partially a result of his rapid ascent and a steady diet of fastballs.  Similarly, there are things in his batted ball profile this year that need to be taken into consideration -- his BABIP was sitting at .259 .vs a league average figure of .315.  He's also seen his K rate drop which is good but his walk rate took a hit.  There is also the reality that as bad as he's been, the average batting line for all hitters in Mobile this year sits at .233/.310/.334.  For whatever reasons offense has played down more than usual in Mobile.

2019 has been a lost season for him no doubt -- but I'm more interested in seeing how he responds to it than anything else.   Personally I'd move him back to the OF, but thats just me -- I think a future as a do everything UT guy that can get on base, run when he's on and has sneaky pop would be quite good for an Angels team that will be carrying a full time DH that may not be able to play everyday because he pitches.

7 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

But 1 top 100 guy basically across the board from the people who watch this stuff no matter what you say.  It is what it is.  It’s not good.  

Top 100 lists -- the ultimate fan's guide to prospect hype.    

[Angel Oracle]

There is definitely nothing wrong with Jones becoming a better fielding version of Figgins eventually, as a super utility guy.    Figgins parlayed it into a solid MLB career, after being acquired by the Halos for just about nothing.

Defensive versatility is an important aspect to have on a team.

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, Second Base said:

It's hard to have a breakout season when you're 21, playing in AA in a pitcher friendly environment.  But next year, at age 22, playing in Salt Lake.....something tells me his homerun total is about to go up several hundred precent.  We'll call that a breakout. 

Stats Inc has some weird numbers for Mobile -- the team's overall numbers and the league averages for ALL players in the Southern league are  within 0.02 of each other...   But that place has been a swamp to hit in this year despite typically playing as a pitcher friendly but somewhat neutral park for most of it's existence.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

There is definitely nothing wrong with Jones becoming a better fielding version of Figgins eventually, as a super utility guy.    Figgins parlayed it into a solid MLB career, after being acquired by the Halos for just about nothing.

Defensive versatility is an important aspect to have on a team.

Thats my line of thinking too, AO.   There may be more value there to the Angels than most teams because of the Ohtani situation.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

Jones, Maitan...       

I know these two have stood out as the big disappointments (they have been IMO), and yet I'm not all that worried about either.   I've viewed Maitan as a lottery ticket plus type of guy -- I say plus because the tools are stupid good, he's just looked like he's going through the motions at times.   I've said all along that Maitan is someone you just wait out, I've also argued that people need to just accept that he's gonna be tubby. That's not to say he hasn't earned the criticism or cynicism from people, he has.  But those tools are legit and as we have seen of late, when he actually seems to put tap into them he looks like a different hitter.   

With Jones --  I've always been a tad skeptical because his contact rates were always a little nebulous IMO even as most prospect hounds talked about his likely being a good hitter for average.  But the plate discipline has always been there, he's got more pop than you'd expect and baseball history is littered with guys who can ride their wheels to MLB...  it's sucked watching him stall out this year but, still young, still time -- he's not Baldoquin, at least not yet.

I guess because Im not "counting" on them to come up big, I've not been as disappointed in them as others have been.  Marsh is that guy for me.  If he had fallen flat on his face I'd probably be more down on the system.  In watching Marsh I think the biggest step he needs to take is refining his batting eye, not saying he needs to walk more, he just needs to take fewer called strikes.   21 years old. 951 total minor league at bats, so I guess it's no surprise why he's taken so many borderline pitches. 

I think Marsh is our biggest breakout candidate moving forward.   Dude isn't done growing into that body.

Edited July 30, 2019 by Inside Pitch

[arch stanton]

I’ve always wondered if they might have gotten into Jones’ head a bit. Too many tweaks and he’s too willing to be malleable. Maybe started to get away from what got him drafted in the first place 

[totdprods]

I can understand how some can look at the farm this year and see disappointment, underwhelmed by the results. It's really easy to do so because last year, we not only saw growth from several individual prospects (Adell, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss) that bordered on the absurd. It inflated expectations on what a "breakout" season looked like for a prospect. In addition, currently our top prospects aren't very spread out. Almost everyone on the position player side is either in AAA/MLB, or in Rookie Ball. It's easy to discount AAA numbers because PCL (Walsh, Rojas, Ward) easy to scrutinize MLB numbers because they're young and learning (Thaiss, Ward, Hermosillo), and hard to get excited about Rookie ball players because they're years away. When Jones and Marsh are your only real mid-level prospects, it's easy to have the perception that it's been a poor year. Similarly, our big-name pitching prospects are either taking lumps in the bigs/SLC, or like the Rookie Ball bats, toiling away in Burlington and seemingly far away.

Secondly, folks need to remember that for the most part, these are kids still learning how to play baseball. They're not going to step in on Day One and produce to their ability, especially when Eppler puts so much emphasis on these boom-or-bust high-risk/high-upside athletes, many having only played baseball for a short while. I've said it before and I'll say it again, most of these guys are going to 'bust' until they 'boom', which may never come, so if Kevin Maitan or Trent Deveaux or Nonie Williams is OPSing .650, that's to be expected. They are not polished Matt Thaiss/Will Wilson types who will step in and post a .800 OPS out of the gate. They're learning. Maybe they never top that .650 OPS, but they also might one day put it all together, a little later than the polished bats, because they're better athletes or have more raw potential. Suddenly, they're hitting .950 as a 20-year old in AA and climb the system in a few months. That's what those types of prospects do. 

Lastly, we need to remember that despite all the work Eppler has done to rebuild the farm, it's still exceptionally top-heavy - a lot of MLB-ready talent and a sprinkling of raw talent, without much in between. That's fun for prospect rankings, but still falls short of the real goal Eppler has - creating a deep, sustainable farm, with a wealth of resources of both sides of the plate across all levels. Considering that, this year has been a major success. The individual standout performances have gone done, but, particularly the A/A+ pitching, has produced some of the best pitching depth this org has had in a decade. That won't tilt the needle much on farm rankings or fan excitement, nor even really make immediate, major impact on the MLB club, but it's what the org needs to have success over the next decade.

Up and down the farm, a lot of farm teams have improved their overall pitching compared to last year.

• Orem, 2018: 6.52 ERA, 1.71 WHIP
• Orem, 2019: 5.76 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
• Burlington, 2018: 3.92 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
• Burlington, 2019: 3.49 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
• Inland Empire, 2018: 4.55 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
• Inland Empire, 2019: 4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
• Mobile, 2018: 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
• Mobile, 2019: 4.04 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
• Salt Lake City, 2018: 6.02 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
• Salt Lake City, 2019: 6.86 ERA, 1.77 WHIP

SLC has obviously had a rough year, but otherwise, there is significant improvement there across all teams. 

Edited July 30, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Touching on my second point, we have had a lot of 'breakout' performances from a more secondary tier of prospects. They won't tilt the farm ranking needle but guys like this can still impact the club in other ways. Continued strong performance will lead to a couple becoming surprise major leaguers, or the expendable trade currency we'll need as buyers in future seasons - guys that can be moved for rentals, once we're in a true position to be buyers for short-term playoff run assets, guys like Spencer Griffin, Leonardo Rivas, Brennon Lund, Franklin Torres, Jeremy Beasley, Jordan Zimmerman, Orlando Martinez, etc.

[Second Base]

52 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I can understand how some can look at the farm this year and see disappointment, underwhelmed by the results. It's really easy to do so because last year, we not only saw growth from several individual prospects (Adell, Fletcher, Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss) that bordered on the absurd. It inflated expectations on what a "breakout" season looked like for a prospect. In addition, currently our top prospects aren't very spread out. Almost everyone on the position player side is either in AAA/MLB, or in Rookie Ball. It's easy to discount AAA numbers because PCL (Walsh, Rojas, Ward) easy to scrutinize MLB numbers because they're young and learning (Thaiss, Ward, Hermosillo), and hard to get excited about Rookie ball players because they're years away. When Jones and Marsh are your only real mid-level prospects, it's easy to have the perception that it's been a poor year. Similarly, our big-name pitching prospects are either taking lumps in the bigs/SLC, or like the Rookie Ball bats, toiling away in Burlington and seemingly far away.

Secondly, folks need to remember that for the most part, these are kids still learning how to play baseball. They're not going to step in on Day One and produce to their ability, especially when Eppler puts so much emphasis on these boom-or-bust high-risk/high-upside athletes, many having only played baseball for a short while. I've said it before and I'll say it again, most of these guys are going to 'bust' until they 'boom', which may never come, so if Kevin Maitan or Trent Deveaux or Nonie Williams is OPSing .650, that's to be expected. They are not polished Matt Thaiss/Will Wilson types who will step in and post a .800 OPS out of the gate. They're learning. Maybe they never top that .650 OPS, but they also might one day put it all together, a little later than the polished bats, because they're better athletes or have more raw potential. Suddenly, they're hitting .950 as a 20-year old in AA and climb the system in a few months. That's what those types of prospects do. 

Lastly, we need to remember that despite all the work Eppler has done to rebuild the farm, it's still exceptionally top-heavy - a lot of MLB-ready talent and a sprinkling of raw talent, without much in between. That's fun for prospect rankings, but still falls short of the real goal Eppler has - creating a deep, sustainable farm, with a wealth of resources of both sides of the plate across all levels. Considering that, this year has been a major success. The individual standout performances have gone done, but, particularly the A/A+ pitching, has produced some of the best pitching depth this org has had in a decade. That won't tilt the needle much on farm rankings or fan excitement, nor even really make immediate, major impact on the MLB club, but it's what the org needs to have success over the next decade.

Up and down the farm, a lot of farm teams have improved their overall pitching compared to last year.

• Orem, 2018: 6.52 ERA, 1.71 WHIP
• Orem, 2019: 5.76 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
• Burlington, 2018: 3.92 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
• Burlington, 2019: 3.49 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
• Inland Empire, 2018: 4.55 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
• Inland Empire, 2019: 4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
• Mobile, 2018: 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
• Mobile, 2019: 4.04 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
• Salt Lake City, 2018: 6.02 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
• Salt Lake City, 2019: 6.86 ERA, 1.77 WHIP

SLC has obviously had a rough year, but otherwise, there is significant improvement there across all teams. 

The PCL adopted the major league ball which flies quite a bit further when squared up, so the rise in ERA is to be excepted.  But the rest of them, I see your point.  

[Second Base]

Also, I know Patrick Sandoval has fallen off many radars this year with his horrific numbers in AAA, but there's reason for optimism.

As @totdprodsshowed, the collective ERA in Salt Lake is 6.86, and Sandoval is currently sporting a 6.46 ERA.  It may look like a huge disappointment, but he's actually a pretty average pitcher by AAA standards so far.  That may not seem exciting either, but when we keep in mind that he's only 22 years old, and that last season he was in A Ball, that's a pretty impressive jump.  

[Docwaukee]

All of these upside guys within the org right now are actually pretty similar from one standpoint.  Will the hit tool progress enough to have success at the higher levels and ultimately mlb.  

It was the primary nit with Adell until he blew through expectations.  
It's the same with Maitan, Jones, Marsh, Adams, Deveaux, Knowles, Jackson.  Even Rondon, Uceta, Rivas, Ramirez

They're not all going to make it.  Not half.  Not a quarter.  but just a couple are going to be quality major league players.  To think any more than that is unrealistic.  

Maitan has looked like a different guy all year actually.  He's fit and engaged.  His hard work is starting to pay off.  He's still in the 'we'll see a couple years' basket.  

Jones has looked flat out angry/annoyed/frustrated.  He looks in between with every at bat. ie out in front on the breaking ball/offspeed and behind on the fastball.  He just hasn't been able to square the ball up consistently.  It could be that he's topped out, but I don't think so.  Seems more related to mechanics and timing albeit at this point their has to be a mental component that's affecting him.  It's good to remind everyone that he's the third youngest position player on the team after Adell and Marsh.  He's still a year younger than the average age for high A and half a year older than most of the college juniors that were just drafted.  In other words, if we just drafted him, he'd be in burlington max. He's one of the youngest position player in the southern league with a qualified number of PA.  So as IP indicated, maybe his trajectory isn't to become a major leaguer at 22 but 24 or even 25. There are plenty of successful major league players of that ilk.   In other words, he's still 5 years away from being Kaleb Cowart.  

[totdprods]

And another sign that the org's hitting hasn't been worse, despite not having all of last year's breakouts...

Overall, Angels minor league hitters:

• 2018: .253/.336/.384/.719 
• 2019: .245/.337/.383/.720 

[Docwaukee]

42 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Touching on my second point, we have had a lot of 'breakout' performances from a more secondary tier of prospects. They won't tilt the farm ranking needle but guys like this can still impact the club in other ways. Continued strong performance will lead to a couple becoming surprise major leaguers, or the expendable trade currency we'll need as buyers in future seasons - guys that can be moved for rentals, once we're in a true position to be buyers for short-term playoff run assets, guys like Spencer Griffin, Leonardo Rivas, Brennon Lund, Franklin Torres, Jeremy Beasley, Jordan Zimmerman, Orlando Martinez, etc.

I think this is a very important point.  Last year  there were several individual breakouts for the top of the system, but the big nit was that there was very little depth.  In particular on the pitching side.  This year it's been the opposite.  Outside of Adell, no position player has really wowed (although Marsh has been sneaky good when you take the park factors into account).  Yet its the middle of the system that has taken a big step forward and not just a few players but a bunch.  In particular on the pitching side as you've indicated.  That's gonna go unnoticed by national publications in terms of farm system rankings.  Or at least unrecognized but as we all know, it's not about where you rank but about how many major league players you produce.  It might look like the system has taken a step back, and maybe it has, but the org as a whole has taken another step forward because of this progression and the graduation of several players.  

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I think this is a very important point.  Last year  there were several individual breakouts for the top of the system, but the big nit was that there was very little depth.  In particular on the pitching side.  This year it's been the opposite.  Outside of Adell, no position player has really wowed (although Marsh has been sneaky good when you take the park factors into account).  Yet its the middle of the system that has taken a big step forward and not just a few players but a bunch.  In particular on the pitching side as you've indicated.  That's gonna go unnoticed by national publications in terms of farm system rankings.  Or at least unrecognized but as we all know, it's not about where you rank but about how many major league players you produce.  It might look like the system has taken a step back, and maybe it has, but the org as a whole has taken another step forward because of this progression and the graduation of several players.  

Eppler's emphasis on pitching the last two drafts have also minimized the chances of 'breakout' hitting performances, again, because there aren't many prospects in A, A+, or AA to break-out. The rosters there are made up of a ton of pitching talent and org filler on the position player side.

And that wave of pitching talent has clearly broken out. 

Angels pitching prospects with 100 IP/20 GS and an ERA between 4.00 and 5.00:

• 2017: Eight - Scribner, Diaz, Vinson, Manoah, Morales, Bertness, Klonowski, Jewell
• 2018: Four - Klonowski, Mathews, Alexander, Pena, Castillo  (for comparison, Houston had four, Atlanta had five, San Diego had nine)
• 2019: Eight - Duensing, Criswell, Pina, Madero, Wantz, Herrin, Bradish, Ball**

Angels pitching prospects with 100 IP/20 GS and an ERA better than 4.00:

• 2017: Four - Castillo, Gatto, Long, Barria, 
• 2018: Four - Suarez, Canning, Beasley, Madero (for comparison, Houston had fourteen, many of whom were actually under 3.00 ERA, Atlanta had 11, San Diego had six)
• 2019: Ten - Yan, Castillo, Tyler, Ortega, Beasley, Molina, Alvarado, Brady, Soriano, Kelly**

**Projecting out arms who should hit 100 IP/20 GS - their ERA could of course change by end of year, and there is a chance they do not make the IP/GS limit, but are on pace to.

While our arms do not compare to the ceiling of those in Houston, Atlanta, or San Diego's system, I think it's worth noting that those orgs produced 15-18 pitchers with sub 5.00 ERAs in significant starts...something the Angels fell well short of. 
But, they're on pace for 18 of those arms this year. Again, not the ceiling - many of their pitchers also had ERA sub 3.00, whereas few Angels pitchers can say that (maybe Soriano, Beasley, Yan, Tyler) - but it shows how much depth the Angels system has added.

[Angel Oracle]

Jones actually put up a .710 OPS in 48 AA games in 2018, just as he turned 21.   It is surprising that he fell to a .567 OPS so far in 2019.

The other odd thing is that after having nearly a 75% SB success rate (averaging over 25 SBs/full season) through 2018, including 11 for 12 success rate in those 48 AA games, he is only 5 for 13 so far in 2019.

[rafibomb]

 

 

[Angel Oracle]

Time to promote Wilson to Burlington?   Faced tough ACC competition, and now close to 120 Orem at bats.

[Second Base]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Time to promote Wilson to Burlington?   Faced tough ACC competition, and now close to 120 Orem at bats.

I suppose they could...it's just that he's going to be at Inland Empire to start next year regardless.  So they could move him or just leave him there.  Either way, the result is the same. 

[CanadianHalo]

 

 

[tdawg87]

That swing is.... interesting.

[Angelsjunky]

So we have some people disappointed and some being positive. Can't both be true? Can we be worried about Jahmai Jones and recognize he is over-matched in AA, while still recognizing he's young for his level and could still become a useful player?

We went from having a MLB worst farm system a few years ago to one that is at least middle of the pack. With that has been a tendency to over-estimate the potential of some prospects. Jones is a case in point. He looked like a classic "How did we get this guy in the second round?" pick. He did well in the low minors and moved up quickly. But he never dominated, not at any level, although was very good in Orem in 2016 and Inland Empire (A+) in 2017. Going into 2018 his prospect value was at its highest; he had just hit .302/.368/.488 in 41 games as a 19-year old. Baseball America had him ranked #89, MLB #93, and Baseball Prospectus #64. He looked like a good candidate to break out even further and enter the top 50 on all lists.

But he was mediocre in 2018, first in A+ and then in AA. He held his own, but a disappointing year. Only BP didn't drop him out of the top 100, doubling down with a #68 ranking. Perhaps they knew what we knew, that he played very well in the Arizona Fall League. I remember us all feeling that he figured it out. But then 2019 happened.

I agree that the mistake that the Angels made was promoting him from A+ to AA mid-season 2018, when he hadn't really done more than hold his own in A+. 

Of course 2019 is a bit of a mystery. He hasn't just stagnated, he's regressed - and the Angels seemingly can't figure out why. Maybe he just needs an offseason to regroup. I hope so. But the point is: we probably over-rated Jones. He's still a prospect, but not close to an elite one--like we hoped he was becoming after 2017. 

[Lou]

I'm positively disappointed