The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[Angel Oracle]

Garreth Morgan, the future symbol for 3 outcomes baseball?    Although the BBs aren't there yet.  

[Chuck]

51 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

 

Gareth batting third

Where's Marsh?

[Angelsjunky]

Gareth Morgan will have no value in the majors unless he develops plate discipline. That approach might work as a 24-year old in A+, but not against major league pitchers with major league breaking stuff.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Where's Marsh?

I had the same thought when I saw the lineup, but then I realized that we uber-fans who comb minor league lineups are like jealous dudes who freak out whenever their girlfriend or wife does anything out of routine. In other words:

Brandon Marsh: "Dude, I had too much barbeque and have the runs so am taking a day off. Chill."

[totdprods]

19 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Gareth Morgan will have no value in the majors unless he develops plate discipline. That approach might work as a 24-year old in A+, but not against major league pitchers with major league breaking stuff.

I’m not disagreeing, but I also think there’s a chance that there’s something unique going on with Morgan. His BB% isn’t bad - it’s basically a Willians Astudillo anomaly its so low.

As such, he isn’t a three-true outcome either - he doesn’t walk, but he does get a ton of base hits. Which is pretty weird for someone with that much power, and weird for someone with that much swing-and-miss.

I don’t think there’s a comp for him, like Astudillo. 

I’m not saying he’ll ever amount to anything, but there could be something very different in play here - a hitter who has such an absurd hand-to-eye coordination and quick hands that he might strike out at a ridiculous rate but also make so much contact with his strength he still becomes a successful MLB bat. Just unlike anything we’ve seen before. Like Astudillo.

 

Edited August 1, 2019 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I’m not disagreeing, but I also think there’s a chance that there’s something unique going on with Morgan. His BB% isn’t bad - it’s basically a Willians Astudillo anomaly its so low.

As such, he isn’t a three-true outcome either - he doesn’t walk, but he does get a ton of base hits. Which is pretty weird for someone with that much power, and weird for someone with that much swing-and-miss.

I don’t think there’s a comp for him, like Astudillo. 

I’m not saying he’ll ever amount to anything, but there could be something very different in play here - a hitter who has such an absurd hand-to-eye coordination and quick hands that he might strike out at a ridiculous rate but also make so much contact with his strength he still becomes a successful MLB bat. Just unlike anything we’ve seen before. Like Astudillo.

 

There are a couple comps that come to mind: Tony Armas and Russell Branyan. Not quite as extreme in BB: K rates, but close enough. Armas actually hit for a decent MLB average (.252) although Branyan did not (.232), so maybe Armas is closer to what the best-case scenario could be.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Not really.

Vlad Guerrero: 54.6 fWAR in 2147 games

Damon: 44.5 fWAR in 2490 games

Hunter: 43.0 fWAR in 2372 games

I added Hunter because he and Damon are so close.

Anyhow, Vlad averaged 4.1 fWAR per 162 games, Damon and Hunter both 2.9. That's a significant difference. Vlad also had five seasons of 5+ WAR, whereas Hunter and Damon never reached that mark. Vlad was a much better hitter but a less well-rounded player. He had a great arm but was a limited defensive player, rather poor in the second half of his career. Hunter was an excellent outfielder until the last few years when he slowed down. Damon was ok but nothing special. Damon was a much better runner than either.

Anyhow, the numbers don't lie. Vlad was signficant better than either. Damon and Hunter were pretty comparable.

The question was never who was valuable on a per game basis but the career in total, and according to bWAR, Damon was as valuable as Vlad, or close to it.

[Second Base]

39 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Gareth Morgan will have no value in the majors unless he develops plate discipline. That approach might work as a 24-year old in A+, but not against major league pitchers with major league breaking stuff.

Not disagreeing here, I just think he's awesome. Someone with his skill set playing professionally is a hoot. 

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

The question was never who was valuable on a per game basis but the career in total, and according to bWAR, Damon was as valuable as Vlad, or close to it.

fWAR > bWAR

I say this because time and time again, when there's a discrepancy in their numbers, the eyeball test always favors fWAR. Or at least almost always. But it is so constently true. There is something wacky about bWAR, especially for pitchers. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

Adell will finish the season with the angels.

Marsh will finish at AAA.

Next season will be interesting with these guys on the cusp of hitting Mlb roster!

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

fWAR > bWAR

I say this because time and time again, when there's a discrepancy in their numbers, the eyeball test always favors fWAR. Or at least almost always. But it is so constently true. There is something wacky about bWAR, especially for pitchers. 

[ScottT]

1.000 OPS in AAA

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

fWAR > bWAR

I say this because time and time again, when there's a discrepancy in their numbers, the eyeball test always favors fWAR. Or at least almost always. But it is so constently true. There is something wacky about bWAR, especially for pitchers. 

it's defense related.  positive or negative credits for pitchers base on the defense around them.  

[Second Base]

28 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

it's defense related.  positive or negative credits for pitchers base on the defense around them.  

@Angelsjunky I just think you're splitting hairs when you debate the validity of one flawed measurement versus another flawed measurement.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Second Base said:

@Angelsjunky I just think you're splitting hairs when you debate the validity of one flawed measurement versus another flawed measurement.

he's not.  he actually understands them.  

[ScottT]

27 home runs for Walsh.  

[ScottT]

Meanwhile, the Doyyer just keep developing prospects.  Lux is having ridiculous success in AAA so far.

[ScottT]

Yordan Alvarez, Lux.... all the Angels guys putting up crazy PCL numbers.   Makes me think there's no way Adell fails there.  A guy named Trout hit .403 in his stint.  Only one home run though.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, ScottT said:

Meanwhile, the Doyyer just keep developing prospects.  Lux is having ridiculous success in AAA so far.

did you see that hr he just hit?  mashed.  

 

[ScottT]

No. I'm watching Yellowstone Live.  Recorded

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

@Angelsjunky I just think you're splitting hairs when you debate the validity of one flawed measurement versus another flawed measurement.

Sure, although splitting hairs and picking nits are part of the fun.

But Scotty, all measurements are either flawed or limited or both. WAR is definitely flawed, but it is the best we've got for a comprehensive metric. I still like to use OBP and SLG, even BA, but they're not context-neutral so I tend to look more at wRC+ for offense (i.e. a 150 wRC+ is a 150 wrC+ in any year, 1998 or 1968, while a .301 BA in 1998 isn't all that special but in 1968 won the AL Batting Title). Stats like pitcher wins and Runs and RBI are almost useless in that they say a lot more about the team than the player, but they're fun to look at.

 

 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Sure, although splitting hairs and picking nits are part of the fun.

But Scotty, all measurements are either flawed or limited or both. WAR is definitely flawed, but it is the best we've got for a comprehensive metric. I still like to use OBP and SLG, even BA, but they're not context-neutral so I tend to look more at wRC+ for offense (i.e. a 150 wRC+ is a 150 wrC+ in any year, 1998 or 1968, while a .301 BA in 1998 isn't all that special but in 1968 won the AL Batting Title). Stats like pitcher wins and Runs and RBI are almost useless in that they say a lot more about the team than the player, but they're fun to look at.

 

 

Agreed.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, ScottT said:

Meanwhile, the Doyyer just keep developing prospects.  Lux is having ridiculous success in AAA so far.

Whats their secret?

Serious question. Is it drafting, or developing?

Its obviously both, but can anyone pinpoint who the brains are over there?

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Whats their secret?

Serious question. Is it drafting, or developing?

Its obviously both, but can anyone pinpoint who the brains are over there?

The Dodgers international scouts are second to none. Not only are they more connected, but they're really good to everyone that works for them in Latin America. It isn't all legal or even moral, but teams that take the high ground, like the Angels when they cleaned house down there.... They don't carry much trust.

The Astros are also very interested internationally, but as I understand, they're very similar to the Braves in that they could care less for legality. The only difference is the Braves got caught.

[UndertheHalo]

I think the obvious answer is that they’re doing a great job developing guys.