The Official 2019 Minor League Statline and Prospect Discussion Thread

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Time to promote Wilson to Burlington?   Faced tough ACC competition, and now close to 120 Orem at bats.

Rondon, Maitan, and Soto have a hold on the positions he’d be playing.

[Second Base]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

That swing is.... interesting.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So we have some people disappointed and some being positive. Can't both be true? Can we be worried about Jahmai Jones and recognize he is over-matched in AA, while still recognizing he's young for his level and could still become a useful player?

We went from having a MLB worst farm system a few years ago to one that is at least middle of the pack. With that has been a tendency to over-estimate the potential of some prospects. Jones is a case in point. He looked like a classic "How did we get this guy in the second round?" pick. He did well in the low minors and moved up quickly. But he never dominated, not at any level, although was very good in Orem in 2016 and Inland Empire (A+) in 2017. Going into 2018 his prospect value was at its highest; he had just hit .302/.368/.488 in 41 games as a 19-year old. Baseball America had him ranked #89, MLB #93, and Baseball Prospectus #64. He looked like a good candidate to break out even further and enter the top 50 on all lists.

But he was mediocre in 2018, first in A+ and then in AA. He held his own, but a disappointing year. Only BP didn't drop him out of the top 100, doubling down with a #68 ranking. Perhaps they knew what we knew, that he played very well in the Arizona Fall League. I remember us all feeling that he figured it out. But then 2019 happened.

I agree that the mistake that the Angels made was promoting him from A+ to AA mid-season 2018, when he hadn't really done more than hold his own in A+. 

Of course 2019 is a bit of a mystery. He hasn't just stagnated, he's regressed - and the Angels seemingly can't figure out why. Maybe he just needs an offseason to regroup. I hope so. But the point is: we probably over-rated Jones. He's still a prospect, but not close to an elite one--like we hoped he was becoming after 2017. 

I feel like if he were left at A+ last year and killed it and then struggled in AA this year he'd be in no different of a situation.  

Another thing to keep in mind.  He was never a truly elite prospect.  Franco, Adell, Robert are elite.  The miss rate on 60-100 guys is still about 70-80%.  Meaning 10 of those 40 guys end up as legit major league players.  

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So we have some people disappointed and some being positive. Can't both be true? Can we be worried about Jahmai Jones and recognize he is over-matched in AA, while still recognizing he's young for his level and could still become a useful player

Pretty sure that's where I said I am -- minus the worried part..  He's disappointed but he's young enough to hope for a rebound.   I'd argue next year is out up or shut up time.   It helps that Rengifo and Fletcher have filled his role as well as they have 

the guy i'm worried about is Chris Rodriguez.  Seems pretty clear injuries are his big bugaboo..  Hopefully they fixed it and it's not another year of hoping rest and rehab will resolve it because the arm is legit.

[Second Base]

18 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Pretty sure that's where I said I am -- minus the worried part..  He's disappointed but he's young enough to hope for a rebound.   I'd argue next year is out up or shut up time.   It helps that Rengifo and Fletcher have filled his role as well as they have 

the guy i'm worried about is Chris Rodriguez.  Seems pretty clear injuries are his big bugaboo..  Hopefully they fixed it and it's not another year of hoping rest and rehab will resolve it because the arm is legit.

The injuries really haven't stalled Chris Rodriguez so far though.  Billy Eppler is big on resting his pitchers and not building up their innings until AAA or the major leagues.  Last year Rodriguez was out the entire campaign, one in which he would've been at Class A Burlington.  He shows up healthy this year and is moved up to Inland Empire, pretty much like it never happened.  And he was really good in his time in San Bernardino too, so we'll probably end up seeing Rodriguez in AA Rocket City next year.

Perhaps for pitchers, that initial step in A Ball or High A really isn't as important as AA and AAA. 

And the good thing with Chris is that the injuries haven't been arm related at all, and his stuff has continued to take a step forward despite the missed time.  The kid is sticking to a regimen and it shows.  Once that back is fully healed up, he could end up being really good, really fast. 

[Angelsjunky]

^Yep, which is why I'm worried about him: He's the highest non-Asian pitcher in our entire organization and we really need him to turn out.

But I agree that he could mature really fast and, if healthy next year, be in Anaheim in 2021.

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

The injuries really haven't stalled Chris Rodriguez so far though.  Billy Eppler is big on resting his pitchers and not building up their innings until AAA or the major leagues.

Yup, I made the same argument earlier this year.   

My concern isn't with his ability or that he will progress... It's entirely based on the actual injury itself.  Backs can be tricky... but if they fixed it, I'm betting he dominates... 

And we both know that while he may not be pitching, he's not sitting around saying cheesy poofs.

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

^Yep, which is why I'm worried about him: He's the highest non-Asian pitcher in our entire organization and we really need him to turn out.

But I agree that he could mature really fast and, if healthy next year, be in Anaheim in 2021.

That would be huge for this team if he's ready to go in 2021.  We can figure that if he sin't traded, Soriano would probably be good to go in 2022, and even though we haven't seen him, I'm still hearing raved reviews about Kochanowicz.  If he's as good as I'm hearing, he may be ready in 2023.  If we could somehow maintain that constant trickle of one high upside arm per year, the pitching staff should be in good shape long term.  BTW, Canning looked outstanding tonight. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

I really do hope that C-rod stays healthy next season (and career), he could easy make the biggest jump in the system. Actually him and Soriano both can, 

Speaking of Soriano, saw that he's on the Il, and has been on there for while, any news?

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

I really do hope that C-rod stays healthy next season (and career), he could easy make the biggest jump in the system. Actually him and Soriano both can, 

Speaking of Soriano, saw that he's on the Il, and has been on there for while, any news?

I think I heard it was a hammy.  Not sure though.  They were going to start skipping his starts and shortening his outings to limit his innings anyway. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

A few other prospect.

I still think Sandoval is going to be 4 in the majors,  his number do not look good, but still alot to like.

Jone's is hitting over 200 (214), seems like he been crushing the ball this month. 

Madero seems to have a small step back in AA, his ERA is high, Fip is around 4.39 and x fip is 3.43. A bit of mix results.

Wilson probably needs a promotion soon.

We have alot of young pitching in A; 

Yan has had a good season, has a K rate over 12 (could he be another Suarez?, probably needs to lower the BB)

 

 

[rafibomb]

 

 

[vladdy#27]

Is that the first time he's pulled a HR this year?

That swing reminds me of Hunter

[Second Base]

11 minutes ago, vladdy#27 said:

Is that the first time he's pulled a HR this year?

That swing reminds me of Hunter

He's a bigger, faster, stronger Torii Hunter. 

[Angelsjunky]

21 minutes ago, Second Base said:

He's a bigger, faster, stronger Torii Hunter. 

Ra........

 

 

 

............

 

 

 

 

............is the sun god of ancient Egypt.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Lets assume torii is the best comp for adell. Are we thinking same defense? (Torii was a beast)

And similar bat? The hype makes him sound better... but i cant see him defense wise being torii

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Lets assume torii is the best comp for adell. Are we thinking same defense? (Torii was a beast)

And similar bat? The hype makes him sound better... but i cant see him defense wise being torii

He's got a better bat, maybe much better. The main difference is power. Torii was a 25-30 HR hitter in the high-power 00s. Once the offense cooled c. 2010ish, he became more of a 20ish HR hitter. Adell will hit 30+ in his sleep and have some seasons above 40.

On the surface I'd say Adell will be similar in terms of BA, speed, and BB, but we don't really know if he'll develop better plate discipline.

My gut says his prime years will be something like .290/.350/.550, 35 HR with 15 SB. 

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Lets assume torii is the best comp for adell. Are we thinking same defense? (Torii was a beast)

And similar bat? The hype makes him sound better... but i cant see him defense wise being torii

Torii is a borderline hall of famer. If Adell becomes that we will be extremely lucky. 

I've heard Adell is a good defensive player. Maybe not on Torii's level but still good. The offense should be close, maybe Adell has more power overall.

This is all just conjecture at this point. The two could have entirely different career paths. But one can't deny the similarities in their swing and projection, as well as both guys being black.

[Angelsjunky]

I wouldn't call Torii borderline Hall of Fame. Hall of Very Good, definitely - but borderline implies a player has a legimitate argument, like Bobby Grich or Andruw Jones or Jim Edmonds. But Torii is a solid step down from those guys. If he was inducted it would tarnish the Hall (even more than it already is).

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I wouldn't call Torii borderline Hall of Fame. Hall of Very Good, definitely - but borderline implies a player has a legimitate argument, like Bobby Grich or Andruw Jones or Jim Edmonds. But Torii is a solid step down from those guys. If he was inducted it would tarnish the Hall (even more than it already is).

like harold baines?

[tdawg87]

Borderline hall of fame/"Hall of very good" same damn thing. Just semantics. 43 career WAR is very, very good.

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Borderline hall of fame/"Hall of very good" same damn thing. Just semantics. 43 career WAR is very, very good.

I would say there is a big difference from being a borderline HOF and a guy who was very good his entire career.  I wouldn't call that semantics.

[Lou]

Torii won't come close to making the HOF 

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I would say there is a big difference from being a borderline HOF and a guy who was very good his entire career.  I wouldn't call that semantics.

That's entirely semantics. You guys are missing the damn point. Who gives a F*ck? Torii was a great player and we'd be lucky if Adell has the career he had.

[stormngt]

27 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Borderline hall of fame/"Hall of very good" same damn thing. Just semantics. 43 career WAR is very, very good.

That's like saying I was. Borderline NBA player instead of just college player.

Or maybe a borderline pro since I had opportunity to try out in an overseas camp.