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How would you spend $40 million this offseason?


Angelsjunky

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I was playing with some numbers to see what the Angels would have to spend to not only patch holes, but field a very good team - one that could be safely projected to win 90+ games, and without making any trades. I figured that they'd need to sign something on the order of (using MLBTradeRumors projected numbers,):  Patrick Corbin: 6/$129M (21.5 AAV), Nathan Eovaldi: 4/$60M (15 AAV), Josh Donaldson: 1/$20M (20 AAV), Wilson Ramos: 3/$36M (12 AAV), and Jeurys Familia: 3/$33M (11 AAV). Those five players would give the Angels a stacked team.

Unfortunately, however, they would cost about $80 million AAV, about twice what @ettin predicts the Angels have to spend in his Financials part of his Primer Series (he doesn't say $40 million, but that the Angels will commit about $161 million to current players, and spend in the $190-195M range, with the CGT threshold being $206M...we can fudge the numbers a bit and hope Eppler liquifies a few million and brings it up to $40M).

If we cut out Corbin and Donaldson, we still get a good starter, a good hitting catcher, and an elite closer. That will improve the team, but not towards being an instant contender. So either the Angels have to find some way to free up another $40 million to bring in equivalent free agent value, or make trades.

The point here is to imagine how to give @floplag his due and field a 90+ win team in the "Trout Window" of 2019-20. As I see it, there are two ways to do that:

1. Do as I say above: spend the equivalent of $80 million on free agents, which would involve blowing way past the CBT threshold and swallowing a hefty luxury tax.

2. Spending about half that and make up the difference with savvy trades.

It is probably a sure thing that Eppler takes the latter approach, of which there are two parts: how to spend $40 million and how to trade to make up that difference.

Let's focus on that first part. What do you spend your $40 million on? And after that, how do you make up the difference (which I estimate at approximately another $40 million in value) to field the best team you can in the 2019-20 Trout Window?

Let's try to avoid easy but unlikely answers like "I trade Calhoun and Cozart and thus have $24 million to spend." That would be nice, but...

Here's the depth chart for reference.
 

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how would i spend it? i'd pay off some bills, buy new cars for the family, buy a house, make a few donations, and put the rest in a place where my new sudden influx of relatives i've never heard of can't touch it. thanks for asking.

if i'm employed by the angels as the gm, i probably wouldn't spend it that way.

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2 minutes ago, Tank said:

how would i spend it? i'd pay off some bills, buy new cars for the family, buy a house, make a few donations, and put the rest in a place where my new sudden influx of relatives i've never heard of can't touch it. thanks for asking.

if i'm employed by the angels as the gm, i probably wouldn't spend it that way.

When are you and Auntie C, coming by for lunch?

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With $40 million I would take this approach.   I’d sign Harper and Corbin to long term deals where the first year pays them $15 million a piece.  I’d then sign Keuchel to a long term deal where the first year paid him $15 million.   I’d non tender Shoe, Trop and Cam freeing up another $7-10 million.  I’d sign Sipp to a one year $5 million deal.  I’d trade Adell, Rengifo and Thias  for Degrom and I’d trade Canning and Marsh for Realmuto.   I’d trade Cozart to the Yankees for nothing while picking up his entire 2020 contract cost.  

 

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1 hour ago, Stradling said:

With $40 million I would take this approach.   I’d sign Harper and Corbin to long term deals where the first year pays them $15 million a piece.  I’d then sign Keuchel to a long term deal where the first year paid him $15 million.   I’d non tender Shoe, Trop and Cam freeing up another $7-10 million.  I’d sign Sipp to a one year $5 million deal.  I’d trade Adell, Rengifo and Thias  for Degrom and I’d trade Canning and Marsh for Realmuto.   I’d trade Cozart to the Yankees for nothing while picking up his entire 2020 contract cost.  

 

I like this plan. I can get behind it. Realmuto ohtani Harper Simmons Upton and Trout would be fun. 

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Id spend $600 bucks taking gabe kapler out for a good steak, and drinks. Once hes drunk, Id ask him to hook me up with the shady dodger employees who were involved in human trafficking.

Next, Id spend $10 million for these coyotes to 'reverse coyote' (roadrunner?) Pujols back to the DR, or better yet Cuba, with the embargos. So we get him off the books finally.

So my $10,000,600.00 dollar investment adds close to 20 million to the forty, giving us roughly 60 million to spend.

Id sign Harper and Eovaldi and some relievers for about 40 million. With the other 20, id buy a yacht with about 10 of it, and play bumper boats with arte. 

With the last 10, id invest in billboards (like arte). The first ones would be an electric one with the dog from wacky races

 

DogSnickerTeeHee-1.gif_c200.gif

Id put that one up in LA, that makes fun of the dodgers losing back to back. The other one would be a shoehei ohtani ROY that looks like a t shirt, over the statue of liberty.

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So let me throw out a hypothetical, speculative off-season series of events:

1 ) Bryce Harper re-signs with the Nationals on a 12-year, $420M deal and the Nationals decide to run with an outfield of Bryce Harper, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto (wow what a set!), leaving Adam Eaton on the trade block.

2 ) Knowing that the Nationals need a left-handed starter, Eppler trades Andrew Heaney and his three years of control plus a low-level prospect to Washington in exchange for Eaton and his three years of control.

3 ) Now that the Angels have Eaton they need to move Kole Calhoun and actually do not have a spot for Jo Adell long-term, making him a valuable trade asset.

4 ) The Angels decide to trade Kole Calhoun, prospect Jo Adell, and prospect Taylor Ward to the the Indians for RHP Trevor Bauer, 3B Yandy Diaz, and a solid SP prospect or high upside reliever (your choice, mine would be the latter). Ward is not quite ready to start 2019 so moving him to the Indians allows them to play Jose Ramirez and/or Jason Kipnis at 2B/3B and Taylor can start at 3B in 2020 once Kipnis is gone. It allows the Angels to take on the increasingly higher arbitration salaries of Bauer and have a more ready 3B in Diaz.

5 ) To replace Heaney in the rotation, the Angels sign J.A. Happ to a 2-year, $28M contract.

6 ) Eppler convinces Wilson Ramos to sign a 3-year, $30M deal to be our primary catcher.

7 ) The Angels sign Mike Trout to a 12-year, $500M extension, holding his 2019 salary equal to the current contract.

8 ) The Angels sign Andrelton Simmons to a 6-year, $102M extension, holding his 2019 salary equal to the current contract.

Actual payroll in 2019 is + 32M, putting us at approximately $194M. AAV in 2019 is +67.5M, putting us at $210.5M, which is $4.5M over the Luxury Tax, resulting in a potential $900,000 tax once the season closes. In 2020 the Angels will likely be able to come back below the CBT threshold by shedding contracts like Cozart, Shoemaker, et al, as needed.

Lineup vs. RHP: 1 ) Adam Eaton 2 ) Mike Trout 3 ) Justin Upton 4 ) Shohei Ohtani 5 ) Jose Fernandez 6 ) Jose Briceno/Wilson Ramos 7 ) Andrelton Simmons 8 ) Zack Cozart 9 ) Yandy Diaz

Lineup vs. LHP: 1 ) Yandy Diaz 2 ) Mike Trout 3 ) Wilson Ramos/Jose Briceno 4 ) Justin Upton 5 ) Albert Pujols 6 ) Andrelton Simmons 7 ) Zack Cozart 8 ) Shohei Ohtani 9 ) Adam Eaton

Rotation: 1 ) Trevor Bauer 2 ) Tyler Skaggs 3 ) Matt Shoemaker 4 ) J.A. Happ 5 ) Jaime Barria ----> 2020 Rotation: 1 ) Trevor Bauer 2 ) Tyler Skaggs 3 ) Shohei Ohtani 4 ) J.A. Happ 5 ) Jaime Barria

Crazy? Probably. I only use it as an example of an option that may fall into Eppler's lap. The off-season has so many moving parts and only the front offices have the insight and information into what is actually available or not. Billy will have options and some of them may be very interesting resulting in the team going a different direction. Let me leave you with a more sensible scenario:

1 ) Angels sign Josh Donaldson to a 3-year, $60M contract

2 ) Angels sign Wilson Ramos to 3-year, $30M contract

3 ) Angels trade prospect Brandon Marsh to the Diamondbacks for LHP Robbie Ray

4 ) Angels trade Kole Calhoun to the Twins for RHR Nick Anderson and a secondary prospect

5 ) Angels start the season with Jabari Blash in RF with Michael Hermosillo as the 4th OF, potentially in a platoon, until Jo Adell is called up to replace them

6 ) The Angels sign Mike Trout to a 12-year, $500M extension.

7 ) The Angels sign Andrelton Simmons to a 6-year, $102M extension.

Actual payroll in 2019 is +27.5M, AAV is +64M putting us barely over the Luxury Tax threshold (Eppler could probably put an easy rider in Simmons contract for extra money for Gold Gloves that would allow us to lower his total contract value to slide under the CBT).

There are lots of different ways to skin a __________ .

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To be fair to @ettin, they trade Adell in the first scenario and Marsh in the second, so in the first you get Marsh long-term, in the second Adell - and much better major league teams, especially in that first.

Great stuff, ettin. I'd hate to lose Adell, but that would be a good team. I think the second is more likely, though I don't think they'll go after Donaldson and instead sign a starter or two.

But yeah, so many directions - so much so that I tend to get paralyzed with these sort of posts and can't answer my own question. 

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There are so many players that can be of big help to this team. McCutchen, Donaldson, Ramos, Grandal...all would help tremendously.

Same on the pitching side. Happ, Gonzalez, Eovaldi, Lynn, Corbin...any two would radically bolster the rotation.

Eppler will have a lot of options. If he has somewhere in the neighborhood of $40 mil and is willing to move a few prospects, he can totally overhaul this team.

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I like Eaton a lot, but no, I would not trade Adell because I have Eaton.  I also wouldn’t give Ramos 3 years.  I also wouldn’t give Donaldson 3 years and $60 million and I want to sign the guy.  Also, I think there is virtually no way Trout gets $500 million.  If we lost him to a team that paid him $500 million I would simply say, well that is insane and I would go back to following the Angels.  

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3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I like Eaton a lot, but no, I would not trade Adell because I have Eaton.  I also wouldn’t give Ramos 3 years.  I also wouldn’t give Donaldson 3 years and $60 million and I want to sign the guy.  Also, I think there is virtually no way Trout gets $500 million.  If we lost him to a team that paid him $500 million I would simply say, well that is insane and I would go back to following the Angels.  

all this stuff.  I'll also be astounded if Harper gets that kind of money as well.  

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1 hour ago, totdprods said:

...we lose Adell and Marsh, and have Adam Eaton to look forward to for the future? 

...Adam Eaton?

Here are his stats the last three years vs. RHP:

Capture.JPG

Note the on-base percentages, particularly the last two seasons.

Yes, tots, Adam Eaton.

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