How would you spend $40 million this offseason?

[ettin]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I like Eaton a lot, but no, I would not trade Adell because I have Eaton.  I also wouldn’t give Ramos 3 years.  I also wouldn’t give Donaldson 3 years and $60 million and I want to sign the guy.  Also, I think there is virtually no way Trout gets $500 million.  If we lost him to a team that paid him $500 million I would simply say, well that is insane and I would go back to following the Angels.  

 

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

all this stuff.  I'll also be astounded if Harper gets that kind of money as well.  

I know you guys think it is crazy but I really believe that is where all of them will land or at least pretty close to it.

In regards to Eaton I was simply pointing out that if you have a long-term solution in RF you could potentially use Adell in a bigger trade since he would be blocked. I like Adell and want to see what he can do on our team and it is very likely he stays and replaces Calhoun, perhaps sooner than we all think.

Just trying to point out that there options sitting out there for Eppler that could make our 2019 team a lot better. Some will materialize and become opportunities while others will never develop. We lack so much information, particularly the phone calls, e-mails, and texts passing back and forth between the GM's. Just so many players with 30 teams trying to remake their rosters, the combinations are endless.

[ettin]

Just now, arch stanton said:

Sorry but I can't get past the PA column. When he passes 600 in a season let me know

Yes that is a concern and that is why his price is not as high as it should be in trade. Andrew Heaney plus a prospect probably gets a deal done. If those PA's were 600 each season Adam would likely command more.

To each their own. In terms of on-base abilities the guy is solid and would fit nicely as a lead-off hitter which we do not have. Feel free to pick your favorite it was just an example of what we could potentially do in this market, nothing more. Not even advocating it just put it out there since I am doing so much research across a wide swath of players.

[totdprods]

My $40m plan...

• Sign RP David Robertson 3/$33m (-$11m)
• Trade RP Blake Parker to WSN for SP Tanner Roark (-$6.5m)
• Sign a non-tendered catcher such as James McCann, Phegley, d'Arnaud, or Wolters (-$3.5m)
• Blockbuster trade SP Tyler Skaggs, OF Kole Calhoun, RP Cam Bedrosian (+ a decent prospect) to ATL for INF Johan Camargo and SP Bryse Wilson (+$14m)
• Trade OF Michael Hermosillo to MIN for OF Robbie Grossman (-$4m)
• Trade SP Jose Suarez, OF Brandon Marsh, and SP Hector Yan to ARI for $30m cash, SP Zack Greinke, and either SP Robbie Ray, SP Shelby Miller, or IF Jake Lamb (-$30m)
• Non-tender Ramirez and Tropeano (+$3.5m)
• Total added in AAV: $37.5m.

Rotation: 
Greinke, Heaney, Roark, Ray/Miller**, Shoemaker, Barria for the top 5 or 6, with Canning, Bryse Wilson, Bridwell, and Sandoval in AAA.

Bullpen:
Robertson, Anderson, Robles, Alvarez, Buttrey, Pena, Brice as the main 7, with Cole, Jerez, Jewell, Middleton as depth.

Lineup:
3B Camargo, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, SS Simmons, 2B Cozart, C non-tender, RF Grossman

Bench: 
Smith, Lamb**, Fletcher, FA 4th OF/ST invite winner - with Thaiss, Ward, Fernandez, Walsh, Rengifo, Briceno all at AAA.

**depending on who else is included in Greinke deal.
 

[Pancake Bear]

Zero chance Trout gets 500 mil. And that looks probable compared to the chances of Harper clearing 400 mil. Bryce maxes out at 350 at absolute most. Trout probably gets 400ish. 500 is a story that journos come up with because it gets clicks. Based on last offseason and the recent trajectory of long term contracts, I’m not even bullish that either Harper or Machado beats out Stanton’s contract in years or dollars. I think they probably do, but I wouldn’t be stunned if either or both missed. 

[ettin]

I am bookmarking this thread.

[Hubs]

Trade Nick Tropeano and Mid-Grade Prospects  for Sonny Gray. +7.3 M

Sign Andrew McCutchen +12.67 M (3/38)

Sign Nathan Eovaldi 12 M (4/60 0 12/14/16/18)

Sign Wilson Ramos +8M (2/17 8/9)

 

[T.G.]

[m0nkey]

Do whatever the consensus was in Stradling's thread and then keep the other $10 million for myself

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

Do whatever the consensus was in Stradling's thread and then keep the other $10 million for myself

 

if this scenario includes me keeping whatever I don't spend, then we're going into a full f**ckin rebuild and you're looking at the halos new GM/RFer. 

Trading everyone except Trout and Simmons for prospects.  Albert into forced retirement with money deferred.  Sick lineup:

Rengifo 2b
Trout CF
Ohtani DH
Adell LF
Simmons SS
Ward 3b
Thaiss 1b
Smith/Briceno C
Dochalo RF

bench: Fletcher, JMF, Walsh, Smith/Briceno

Rotation: Barria, Ohtani LHed or Heaney if he takes a pay cut,  Trop, Canning, Suarez

Bullpen: Buttrey, Anderson, Pena, Brice, Almonte, Cole, Dochalo (lefty specialist)

I'll work for free. 

Payroll $58 mil.  $90mil in savings plus the $40 mil we didn't spend goes in my bank account.  

Tank has already agree to be the director of marketing and lunches.  

Noe Ramirez and Jabari Blash aren't gonna make the team.  

Dochalo bobblehead night is May 9th.  It's me in a reclining chair drinking a beer and eating a sandwich. 

[Hubs]

I want that bobble head.

[ettin]

14 hours ago, Hubs said:

I want that bobble head.

I'll put it right next to my Jabari Blash bobblehead

[totdprods]

Thought it'd be fun to revisit a few of these offseason plans now that we're a couple months into the season. 
Eppler's $36m plan isn't looking too hot currently - Harvey $11m, Cahill $9m, Allen $8.5m, Lucroy $3.5m, Bour $2.5m, La Stella $1.5m.

On 11/15/2018 at 11:54 AM, Hubs said:

• Trade Nick Tropeano and Mid-Grade Prospects  for Sonny Gray. +7.3 M
  • Gray wound up costing the Reds' #7 prospect, IF Shed Long. The Angels #7 prospect? Luis Rengifo. The two are actually pretty similar - neither are Top 100, but not far from it. Both just made their MLB debuts. Rengifo is a year younger, and has a career .766 OPS in the minors, whereas Long has a .795 OPS. So, let's say this trade wound up as Rengifo for Gray. 
  • Gray immediately signed an extension with Cincy (and flamed NYY on his way out) for 3/$30m ($10m AAV) and has been fantastic - in 11 GS/56 IP, he has a 3.54 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP to go with a career high 10 K/9. 
    • As of now, Rengifo for Gray would've been worth it - he would have likely bumped Harvey from the plans.
       
• Sign Andrew McCutchen +12.67 M (3/38)
  • McCutchen signed with Philly for 3/$50m ($16.6 AAV) - quite a bit more than @Hubs projected, but still within reason.
  • He would have likely bumped Calhoun to 4th OF or, likelier, off the roster. When Upton went down with injury, that would have opened up playing time for Calhoun or still necessitated the Goodwin acquisition.
  • McCutchen leads the NL with 41 walks, and is sporting a .261/.385/.463/.848 slash in 54 G, with an OPS+ of 121 and ~2 WAR, better than Philly's other OF acquisition.
    • Currently, Goodwin has an .814 OPS/118 OPS+, and Calhoun .807 OPS and 115 OPS+
    • McCutchen would have been a good acquisition - but for the length and dollars, probably not one we needed to make.
      • We'll call it a wash, for now.
         
• Sign Nathan Eovaldi 12 M (4/60 0 12/14/16/18)
  • Eovaldi went on to sign for 4/$68m ($17m AAV), which would have put the cost at $44m in AAV already committed, several million more than Eppler wound up spending. 
  • Eovaldi last 4 starts and 21 innings of pretty mediocre ball - 6.00 ERA, 7.04 FIP, 14 runs, 6 HR, 11 BB, and 16 K in only 21 IP - before requiring elbow surgery and will miss 6+ weeks.
  • The Angels would have had to turn to Barria or Canning in April, which wouldn't have been a bad thing, but this contract is looking a little iffy now given the dollars and years.
    • Too early to tell - Eovaldi could return midseason and pitch great, so, again, a wash, but an expensive one. He would have likely bumped Cahill from the plans.
       
• Sign Wilson Ramos +8M (2/17 8/9)
  • Ramos went on to sign for 2/$19m ($9.5m AAV) which would have put the Angels at $53m AAV committed - no Allen/relief help, no La Stella, no Bour, so it would have been the kids in the infield and pen.
  • Ramos, 31, has been an average catcher to date - good for only 0.2 WAR (same as Lucroy), a 97 OPS+, but only throwing out 14% of baserunners - way below norm. 
  • He's slashing a meager .256/.337/.375/.712, and doesn't have any real discernible advantage over Lucroy, who came far cheaper in years (1) and money ($3.5m).
    • As of now, this looks like it would have been a bust, especially in comparison to Lucroy/Smith.

Since this went way over budget, we'll assume the other needs were filled with the kids.

• Rotation: 
  • Gray, Skaggs, Pena, and then eventually Heaney, with a combo of Barria, Stratton, Canning, and Peters getting a lot of time. 
    • Gray would have been nice, but that depth would have been tested fast.
• Line-up: 
  • McCutchen RF, Trout CF, Simmons SS, Pujols DH, Ward/Thaiss 3B, Ramos C, Walsh/Thaiss 1B, Goodwin LF, Fletcher 2B
    • A lot of reliance on Ward, Walsh, and Thaiss - and with Rengifo dealt, Simmons hurt, and La Stella not acquired, we'd be watching Cowart or Tovar in the infield right now as well. Maybe Rojas though!

Edited May 30, 2019 by totdprods

[totdprods]

@ettin did a couple, but I'll tackle this one first as it seems like it would have been likelier.

On 11/14/2018 at 8:21 PM, ettin said:

• 1 ) Angels sign Josh Donaldson to a 3-year, $60M contract
  • Donaldson signed for 1/$23m with ATL, so this would have been reasonable. 
  • To date, slashing .263/.380/.453/.833 with an OPS+ of 117 and 1.6 WAR, playing 3B.
  • This would have freed up Ward/Thaiss for a trade - more on that later - and allowed the Angels to use La Stella on the bench, Fletcher in AAA as reserve, and Cozart at 2B (which wouldn't have lasted long).
  • Yup, this would have been good, for now. 3 years may be a bit of risk still.
     
• 2 ) Angels sign Wilson Ramos to 3-year, $30M contract
  • This would've been an overpay, by the looks of it, but possibly necessary to pry him away from NYM. 
  • As mentioned earlier, this isn't looking good. 
     
• 3 ) Angels trade prospect Brandon Marsh to the Diamondbacks for LHP Robbie Ray
  • Arizona's asking price for Ray was said to be more than the NYY Paxton deal (promising Top 50 LHP Sheffield, MLB-ready Swanson, upside OF Thompson-Williams)
    • The Angels would've had to include at least one of Canning or Suarez, and perhaps one of Barria or Sandoval, to match the pitching return. 
    • Marsh would've easily exceeded Thompson-Williams, and Ward/Thaiss could have helped Arizona's CIF depth and the MLB-readiness aspect. 
    • This deal might have been doable at something like Suarez, Ward/Thaiss, and Marsh, or, Suarez, Barria, and Knowles. So, it would've taken a lot more than Marsh.
  • That said, Robbie Ray has been great - in 12 GS/62.2 IP, a 3.59 ERA, 3.28 FIP, a K/9 of 11.8, and an ERA+ of 126. He still has issues going deep in games, but would have been a good addition for the '19-'20 seasons that he's under control for. 
    •  Hard to rule on this one - it would not have affected the Angels MLB team short-term, but if Ray walked after 2020, this could have wound up hurting quite a bit. 
       
• 4 ) Angels trade Kole Calhoun to the Twins for RHP Nick Anderson and a secondary prospect
  • This would have been basically a salary dump for the Halos, saving them Calhoun's salary.
  • Anderson was traded to Miami for a low-level IF prospect, and has since posted decent numbers for the Marlins - 22.2 IP, 5.16 ERA, 3.62 FIP, and a whopping K9 of 16 (40K, 12 BB in ~23 IP)
  • He would have been a fine addition to the pen, and very much fits the Eppler mold. But, in hindsight, losing Calhoun might not have been worth it....more on that below.
    • Still, I'll call it a wash.
       
• 5 ) Angels start the season with Jabari Blash in RF with Michael Hermosillo as the 4th OF, potentially in a platoon, until Jo Adell is called up to replace them.
  • Blash wound up in Japan, Hermosillo is still rehabbing, and Adell wound up hurt. This, coupled with Upton being hurt, would've meant a lot more Peter Bourjos - and probably Cesar Puello - in RF with Goodwin in LF.
    • Thank the good Lord we found Brian Goodwin, otherwise this could have been a huge mess. We can't judge Puello on one game, but a Bourjos/Puello RF platoon would have struggled to match what Calhoun has done.
    • Too early to tell .
       
• 6 ) The Angels sign Mike Trout to a 12-year, $500M extension.
  • A little rich, but, yep.
     
• 7 ) The Angels sign Andrelton Simmons to a 6-year, $102M extension.
  • Currently, this might be a bit of an overpay, primarily in years, but not a bad approximation.
     
• Actual payroll in 2019 is +27.5M, AAV is +64M putting us barely over the Luxury Tax threshold (Eppler could probably put an easy rider in Simmons contract for extra money for Gold Gloves that would allow us to lower his total contract value to slide under the CBT).

Since no huge money was committed, we can assume they'd still pull in cheap adds like Bour and La Stella.

• Rotation: 
  • Eventually, Ray, Skaggs, Heaney, Barria, Canning, and Pena. Not bad.
    • But for most of April/May, it would have been Ray, Skaggs, Pena, Barria, Stratton, and...Peters? No Cahill and Harvey, but they would have been stretched very thin, given Skaggs' DL and the short leashes on Stratton, Pena, and Barria.
• Line-up: 
  • La Stella 2B, Trout CF, Donaldson 3B, Simmons SS, Pujols DH, Bour 1B, Ramos C, Goodwin LF, Bourjos/Puello RF 
    • There's some firepower in there still with Donaldson, but not nearly enough to overcome some of the deadweight and risk at the end.

Edited May 30, 2019 by totdprods

[Blarg]

On 11/14/2018 at 4:33 PM, ten ocho recon scout said:

Id sign Harper and Eovaldi

If only you could go back in time and reword your answer. 

[totdprods]

Alright, my turn....

On 11/14/2018 at 10:04 PM, totdprods said:

My $40m plan...

• Sign RP David Robertson 3/$33m (-$11m)
  • He signed for 2/$23m, so I would've overpaid. I lauded him for his durability and consistency, but he managed only 6.2 innings before a flexor strain landed him on long-term DL, muddying his long-term health projections as well. 
    • A big ol' bust. As bad as Allen, but more expensive and longer.
       
• Trade RP Blake Parker to WSN for SP Tanner Roark (-$6.5m)
  • The Nationals traded Roark to Cincy for basically a AAA reliever - essentially, a Jeremy Rhoades/Jake Jewell-type and the Angels non-tendered Parker.
  • Washington sought relief help all winter, and the Angels signed Cahill and Harvey, so this would have fit the teams' needs. If Washington insisted on a long-term prospect piece, including a Luis Pena/Jewell/Rhoades with Parker could've been on the table too.
  • Roark has been very solid in Cincinnati - through 11 GS, 56 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, only 2 HR alowed, and career highs in BB9 (3.8) and K9 (9.4). The Angels got nothing for Parker.
    • Can't really find anything wrong here. Missed opportunity on a great deal for both teams, and a big win.
       
• Sign a non-tendered catcher such as James McCann, Phegley, d'Arnaud, or Wolters (-$3.5m)
  • McCann had been a target of mine before the offseason started, and only he and d'Arnaud would have been options, as Phegley and Wolters were retained.
  • d'Arnaud has been pretty awful, and bounced between NYM, LAD, and TBR, posting only a .364 OPS in 24 G/66 PA, but has thrown out 25% (3 of 12) - Smith was already claimed by now, so he may have bumped him, too, or not bee
  • McCann on the other hand has been terrific, if not an All Star contender. He's slashing .349/.388/.532/.920 with an OPS+ of 146, and good for ~2 WAR, having also thrown out 35%. He's $1m less than Lucroy, years younger, and controlled through '20.
    • Lucroy and Smith have been a fantastic duo for the Angels, but McCann would've beat both. If d'Armaud had been brought in to platoon, this would've sucked, but both combined would still have been better than what we have now. 
    • I'll call it a wash.
       
• Blockbuster trade SP Tyler Skaggs, OF Kole Calhoun, RP Cam Bedrosian (+ a decent prospect) to ATL for INF Johan Camargo and SP Bryse Wilson (+$14m)
  • The main motivation here was to shed salary (more below) and cash in on Skaggs and Calhoun's value now. The Braves went on to sign Markakis for RF, and Donaldson for 3B, bumping Camargo to UT IF. Newcomb moved to the bullpen. For the Braves, this might have been a deal worth discussing, though they are very high on Camargo still. 
  • Without everyday play, Camargo has struggled - slashing .213/.261/.324/.585 in 115 PA, well below his prior everyday slash of .281/.343/.455/.799. He would've had more consistent time as an Angel, hopefully boosting his numbers at least to somewhere in between the two. 
  • Wilson, only 21, hasn't been a factor in the bigs yet - only 11 IP in two seasons across 5 G/2 GS, with an unsightly 7.15 ERA, but he's been solid in AAA (career 4.66 ERA in 14 G/73 IP) and is a ranked around #80 in the Top 100. He would've slotted up comparably with Canning for our depth.
  • Hard to rule on this. A lot of moving pieces. Short-term, it would have been a substantial loss, but long-term still potential to pay off. Too early to tell.
     
• Trade OF Michael Hermosillo to MIN for OF Robbie Grossman (-$4m)
  • Hermosillo's been injured all year, Grossman was non-tendered and picked up by Oakland. Grossman to date: .216/.320/.351/.671, OPS+ 84, 0.3 WAR, 13% BB%.
  • Following the Upton injury, the Angels would have still brought in Goodwin. We'd be looking at an OF of Goodwin, Trout, and Grossman. Not very exciting. 
  • This deal wouldn't have been good, but it really wouldn't have been had either, considering Adell breathing down Hermosillo's back and the pick-up of Goodwin.
    • I'll call it a wash, though it was a move necessitated by losing Calhoun in the deal above, and shedding his salary, in order to make the next move.
       
• Trade SP Jose Suarez, OF Brandon Marsh, and SP Hector Yan to ARI for $30m cash, SP Zack Greinke, and either SP Robbie Ray, SP Shelby Miller, or IF Jake Lamb (-$30m)
  • This was the big move, with the Angels taking on immense money in the Greinke deal, and leveraging that commitment to lessen the value of prospects offered back for Ray, Miller, or Lamb.
  • Ray became significantly more out of reach as winter went on, and likely wasn't realistic. Miller was non-tendered, so even if included, wouldn't have been much of a factor overall to the deal.
  • Lamb, however, might have been in play. He was ruled out of 3B by Arizona, and considered a platoon 1B option.
    • So let's say the deal included him - Greinke, Lamb, and cash for Marsh, Suarez, and Yan. This might have been realistic, but it's real hard to say on a deal with a contract this large. Very hypothetical.
    • Greinke has been phenomenal so far - 2.78 ERA in 12 GS/78 IP, 3.36 FIP, and a WHIP of 0.88, with all trends remaining consistent to his career. The contract is scary, yes, but Greinke continues to defy time and decline.
    • Lamb however made it five games before a quad strain that has put him out indefinitely. 
    • The Angels would have gotten their 'ace', but added another long-term high-dollar contract, while sacrificing some youth. Lamb's acquisition might have meant Bour or La Stella weren't acquired. 
    • I'll leave this up to debate, but I think this would have been a win, for now. Greinke only has three years remaining, and nearing halfway on Year One, he looks to be safe for at least half that time. 
      • The money would have been substantial, but we also wouldn't have spent it on Cahill, Harvey, or Allen.
         
• Non-tender Ramirez and Tropeano (+$3.5m)
  • Would have made more sense than Shoemaker and Parker, and only made to save money. As both have yet to really have an impact on 2019, it's also too early to tell.
     
• Total added in AAV: $37.5m.

Rotation: 
Greinke, Heaney, Roark, Shoemaker (DL'ed), Barria for the top 5 or 6, with Canning, Bryse Wilson, Bridwell, and Sandoval in AAA.

Bullpen:
Robertson, Anderson, Robles, Alvarez, Buttrey, Pena, Brice as the main 7, with Cole, Jerez, Jewell, Middleton as depth.

Lineup:
3B Camargo, CF Trout, DH Ohtani, LF Upton, 1B Pujols, SS Simmons, 2B Cozart, C non-tender, RF Grossman

Bench: 
Smith, Lamb**, Fletcher, FA 4th OF/ST invite winner - with Thaiss, Ward, Fernandez, Walsh, Rengifo, Briceno all at AAA.

**depending on who else is included in Greinke deal.

Spending just $1m more than Eppler, there would have been room for La Stella still, as he'd be the MIF with Lamb replacing Bour. No money for Cahill, no Harvey, no Allen.

• Rotation:
  • Greinke, Pena, Roark, Shoemaker, and Barria would have started the season strong, before Shoe went down, opening the door for Canning or Wilson, and eventually Heaney's return.
  • Depth again, would have been tested though.
• Line-up:
  • With Ohtani, Cozart, Lamb, and Upton mostly out, this would've been the main line-up.
  • La Stella DH, Camargo 2B, Trout CF, Simmons SS, Pujols 1B, Goodwin LF, McCann C, Grossman RF, Fletcher 3B
    • Not a bad line-up, but a lot of uncertainty in the outfield and a lot of reliance on Camargo bouncing back.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

13 hours ago, Blarg said:

If only you could go back in time and reword your answer. 

And add joe kelly to it.

[Stradling]

On 11/14/2018 at 9:22 PM, ettin said:

I am bookmarking this thread.

How’d that work out for you?  

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

How’d that work out for you?  

Trout not getting $500 mil worked out for all of us.  

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Trout not getting $500 mil worked out for all of us.  

Yep.  

[eligrba]

Boy am I glad I dd not respond to this thread.  It frees me to be more critical of Eppler and everyone else who made suggestions.

I feel empowered!!