Reading Between the Lines: Billy Eppler's Talk with Season Ticketholders

[Docwaukee]

So because of our farm system and the lack of currency, trading minor league talent for a player costs the org more that paying a little extra money for a similar player on the free agent market under most circumstances except:

1.  if the player being traded for is young enough and has enough club control that their value doesn't automatically decline when they walk through the door.  Simmons is a good example.  He's probably worth about the same in trade right now as he was when we acquired him.   

2. The player acquired is done so at minimal cost in trade because the team is taking on substantial salary.  

I personally think that Eppler considered Newcomb and Ellis to be overvalued by the previous regime which made it easier to part ways with them.  i don't know if we have any other prospects in our org currently who fit that criteria ie I think Eppler has high regard for Jones and Thaiss.  There really isn't much outside of those two who could bring back a significant player so I don't think we'll be doing any major trades this off season.  

We have limited access to obtaining minor league talent whereas (theoretically) a little extra money spent on a free agent shouldn't cripple payroll.  As bad as the FA market, we are still better off paying for players as opposed to trading for them.  

[tdawg87]

If Jones and Thaiss get traded then this organization is going nowhere. They aren't elite enough to bring back any huge impact players, but they're good enough to be worth holding onto to see how they can impact the team themselves. 

[ukyah]

4 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I remember when Dipoto said all the right things...

truth.

[Billy_Ball]

Matt Thaiss = Kyle Schwarber (minus the injuries - I hope)

[Billy_Ball]

FYI - the Angels put about 14 minutes of the Chalk Talk with Billy Eppler on their Facebook page (hope the link still works.)

https://www.facebook.com/Angels

 

[Troll Daddy]

 Who here hasn't heard this before?

 

[VariousCrap]

On 10/28/2016 at 8:02 PM, Lou said:

Great job, @Dave Saltzer. 

This proves just how stupid the AW GMs are compared to real GMs 

 

F you dude!!!  I'm an excellent AW GM.  

[disarcina]

little late to the party here -- but thanks to Dave Saltzer for posting that very informative post about his impressions from the Eppler talk.

sounds like we're going to spend most of the discretionary dollars we have available this off-season on a quality starting pitcher (Hellickson?) and perhaps a 2B.

Sounds like we might be going in-house for a LF'er again -- who is this Jam Jones guy? Not familiar with him but for 2017 he sounds like the guy we see in every ST camp who burns up the early ST game pitching, posts some great power numbers and then winds up at AAA or more likely AA. (AA is actually better for developing players -- AAA is a bunch of bitter guys who've come down from the bigs and are no longer 'prospects' ; 4-A guys the organizations want to keep around in case of injuries, other depth guys --particularly pen arms -- and perhaps a young prospect pitcher a step away from making it --- the better training and tutelage for young players is at the AA level).

I see Cron as trade bait -- Pujols will play half his games or more at DH next year.......

there's a guy out there who could play some 2B, 1B, LF and even DH and do fairly well -- he's been in Dodger Blue the past two seasons -- his name is Kendrick. Not bad for a one plus one contract during two years when we're probably not going to be in contention.  Dodgers seem to have a log jam at 2B and LF and probably won't sign HK  again.

Calhoun is great trade bait for the Angels if they want to trade for that quality starter -- but we've got him under contract through 2018 so it probably makes more sense to deal him at deadline time in 2018..........I don't think we're going to get anyone better than Calhoun for RF.

Again, Dave Saltzer -- thanks for the report. Well done -- as always.

[Ohtaniland]

[Bruce Nye]

Excellent post, Dave.

[Hubs]

15 hours ago, disarcina said:

little late to the party here -- but thanks to Dave Saltzer for posting that very informative post about his impressions from the Eppler talk.

sounds like we're going to spend most of the discretionary dollars we have available this off-season on a quality starting pitcher (Hellickson?) and perhaps a 2B.

Sounds like we might be going in-house for a LF'er again -- who is this Jam Jones guy? Not familiar with him but for 2017 he sounds like the guy we see in every ST camp who burns up the early ST game pitching, posts some great power numbers and then winds up at AAA or more likely AA. (AA is actually better for developing players -- AAA is a bunch of bitter guys who've come down from the bigs and are no longer 'prospects' ; 4-A guys the organizations want to keep around in case of injuries, other depth guys --particularly pen arms -- and perhaps a young prospect pitcher a step away from making it --- the better training and tutelage for young players is at the AA level).

I see Cron as trade bait -- Pujols will play half his games or more at DH next year.......

there's a guy out there who could play some 2B, 1B, LF and even DH and do fairly well -- he's been in Dodger Blue the past two seasons -- his name is Kendrick. Not bad for a one plus one contract during two years when we're probably not going to be in contention.  Dodgers seem to have a log jam at 2B and LF and probably won't sign HK  again.

Calhoun is great trade bait for the Angels if they want to trade for that quality starter -- but we've got him under contract through 2018 so it probably makes more sense to deal him at deadline time in 2018..........I don't think we're going to get anyone better than Calhoun for RF.

Again, Dave Saltzer -- thanks for the report. Well done -- as always.

Disarcina,

We don't have a legit starting left fielder ready for 2017. The guys that everyone are hyping are at least 2 seasons away. 

Kendrick is not a free agent until AFTER 2017. Utley is up. Turner is up. I don't see the Dogs letting him go for cheap. If they don't sign a 2b, I could see them targeting Kendrick after next year, but he is not a free agent.

Cron started 93 games at 1st in 2016. He would've started more but missed games due to free agency. Pujols started 28 and Marte started 25. Pujols is the DH, and Cron is the 1st baseman. I don't see them trading Cron unless they acquired (2) OF. Then Calhoun would move to 1st on occasion (as would Marte). 

I agree with you on Calhoun, but don't think he brings back a top flight starter so why move him.

 

 

[Hubs]

On October 29, 2016 at 3:15 AM, Billy_Ball said:

Matt Thaiss = Kyle Schwarber (minus the injuries - I hope)

You are dreaming. 

In parts of 2 seasons in the minors, Schwarber hit .333 with a .429 OBP and a .613 SLG. He never has had a team where he hit under .302. 

Thaiss did well in rookie ball. In Burlington he came back down to earth. It's a small sample size, but Schwarber has a 1.050 OPS at that level, while Thaiss had a .776 OPS.

Temper your expectations. Thaiss may break through, but he is not Schwarber, not yet anyway.

 

 

[TroutBaseball]

Thanks for the recap. I noticed in the segment posted on Facebook that as he was talking about how it's more difficult to transition a player from SS to 2B than RF to LF someone shouted the name Aybar and he gave a subtle move to indicate that that's who he was talking about.

[Docwaukee]

Schwarber is a man-beast.  He might have the most power of any player in major league baseball.  Thaiss probably isn't going to be a true power hitter.  His ceiling is probably 20-25hrs.  Like Joey Votto. 

[Oz27]

I wonder if they're going to try Thaiss at a corner outfield spot or anywhere else. His ceiling as a 1B/DH isn't really that high, which is why I don't love him as a prospect - at least not yet. There were only nine three WAR first basemen in all of baseball last year (three of them were really DHs but Fangraphs but them on the 1B list) and all but one of them had a WRC+ north of 130, which illustrates that it's pretty hard to have high value as a 1B/DH type. If he could stick at a slightly more challenging position then I would be much more interested in him.

[Stradling]

To me that's where WAR loses some credibility. It basically implies that it's easy to get a decent first baseman off the scrap heap.  So Effren Navarro is only a couple wins worse than Jose Abreu or Eric Hosmer? 

[well_red]

On 10/28/2016 at 10:28 AM, Dave Saltzer said:

He talked about Pujols, keeping him healthy, especially as he ages, and the toll playing the infield takes on the body.

Playing 1st takes a toll on the body?  Wow...  I think this is very telling about the state of Albert's health.  

[Billy_Ball]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

You are dreaming. 

In parts of 2 seasons in the minors, Schwarber hit .333 with a .429 OBP and a .613 SLG. He never has had a team where he hit under .302. 

Thaiss did well in rookie ball. In Burlington he came back down to earth. It's a small sample size, but Schwarber has a 1.050 OPS at that level, while Thaiss had a .776 OPS.

Temper your expectations. Thaiss may break through, but he is not Schwarber, not yet anyway.

 

 

Let me dream.  The dream is free, the journey is not.

[Oz27]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

To me that's where WAR loses some credibility. It basically implies that it's easy to get a decent first baseman off the scrap heap.  So Effren Navarro is only a couple wins worse than Jose Abreu or Eric Hosmer? 

I get your point but I don't really agree with it. It isn't hard to find a close-to-average major league hitter who can man first base, either on the waiver wire or in the top of the minors (that is a replacement level player). hitters in the majors (admittedly Efren wasn't one of them). Eric Hosmer this year was a league average hitter who defensive metrics hated, so if we trust those defensive metrics his value was incredibly low. The difference between 2016 Hosmer and a freely-available replacement level first baseman really isn't that significant.

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Schwarber is a man-beast.  He might have the most power of any player in major league baseball.  Thaiss probably isn't going to be a true power hitter.  His ceiling is probably 20-25hrs.  Like Joey Votto. 

 

you know who else they said would hit a ceiling between 20-25 homers a season? mike trout.

so yes, i agree with you, thaiss is the next mike trout.

nice.

[ettin]

I really want Thaiss to be a great OBP type hitter but he had really stark platoon splits in his first season so that is an area he needs to work on.

[arch stanton]

As he sees more lefties he should be able to work it out.

[nando714]

Trade Calhoun for a starter 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, nando714 said:

Trade Calhoun for a starter 

and put who in RF?  Daniel Nava?  

[Lou]

3 hours ago, nando714 said:

Trade Calhoun for a starter 

we haven't been able to find one outfielder for years and now you want us to find two?