If Tanaka is not posted, extend Trout, forget Garza

[Brandon]

I don't extend Trout if I'm the Angels. Eat up as much of the low paying years as possible.

[YouthofToday]

Lock Trout up. I don't want a premature closing to trout season in a few years.

[Mudville]

They won't extend him until after Opening day so as to not break the luxury tax. Remember, the average value goes to the luxury tax. Extending him before opening day is an unnecessary expenditure of several million.

I think they caculate the lux tax at mid season payroll.

[Mudville]

Look guys, it really doesn't do anything for the Angels to erasehis clock time and jump into aav before he hits first year of arbotration. A reasonable raise this season of the $2-3 million mark and then next offseason after Blanton and Wells clear thebooks blow him away with a deal that would be lucrative long term that would eclipse the Tulo/Longo contracts. First year arbitration is notgoing to launch him into the $15 mill zone so there is no hurry thinking he will wait it out for free agency when there is a boatload of dollars on the table.

Trout isn't the idiot you all must think he is if he will risk arbitration years and injury over a long term deal.

[Docwaukee]

I'm not sure what opening day has to do with extending Trout.  They can sign him to a contract that is effective starting 2015 at any time. 

 

They have some options here.  However, regardless of how bad last year was, they still have a legitimate chance to play meaningful baseball in 2014 with the addition of a middle of the rotation starter.   With a very limited window in regards to Pujols and Hamilton potentially being productive and Trout being part of the team, you have to make full use of that opportunity. 

 

Bringing in Garza makes the team better and has no bearing on whether they attempt to extend Trout at this point as they have some time for that.  Granted, it's not good to wait too long, but priority #1 is to make the team the best it can be for 2014. 

 

For me, it boils down to value.  5/90 for Garza isn't a good contract.  4/70 is probably acceptable.  Anything below that would be very nice. 

 

The window may be closing faster than they anticipated but the FO is likely not willing to concede that at this point nor should they.  They still have an opportunity to get valuable pieces via trade at any point until the deadline.  If things go wrong again, they can move some guys at the ASB or next offseason.  Their value may drop a bit so there is some risk, they are obligated to give it a shot in 2014 and you likely can't do that without a middle of the rotation starter. 

[Mauch Won]

I am good with Tanaka. Not sold on Garza. If Tanaka isn't posted sign Maholm/Capuano and Niemann. Niemann will not be ready until the ASG so a rehab /incentive contact is in order. I like the insurance of another arm being added to the mix before the trade deadline. Worst case he can slide into the swingman or long relief role as a way to finish his rehab

[stormngt]

If Tanaka is not a viable option, the Angels should do everything they can to extend Trout and go into the season with what they have.

 

None of the other pitchers available are going to help this team outside of Garza and he is a huge risk because of arm injuries and how much he will be paid.  Already it will be tough for the Angels to make the playoffs this upcoming season, no need to recklessly spend money on pitching.

 

Of course I don't know how much it would cost to extend Trout or if he actually would sign an extension but I would rather the Angels kept that money for that possibility than sink money into another big pitching contract.

I agree completely. There is no one else that would vastlt improve the team. Extend trout now an I am willing to bet we can get him for around 200 million. Wait and the price tag goes up dramatically.

[xboom28x]

I am good with Tanaka. Not sold on Garza. If Tanaka isn't posted sign Maholm/Capuano and Niemann. Niemann will not be ready until the ASG so a rehab /incentive contact is in order. I like the insurance of another arm being added to the mix before the trade deadline. Worst case he can slide into the swingman or long relief role as a way to finish his rehab

 

You want "insurance" from a guy who MIGHT be ready by ASB and whom we don't know how good he will be at that point? I'd rather look elsewhere if I am looking for insurance.

[Hubs]

They calculate the payroll at the end of the season. All contracts count. The only way Trout gets an extension now is to save them AAV payroll dollars next offseason. I'd give him a two year extension. Best for both sides. Still have two more after that to try to get him to sign an extension.

[YouthofToday]

An extension now would not save AAV next year unless it was for only 2 years.

The team should be aiming to buy out free agency years -- not fiddling around with arbitration years.

[tdawg87]

I'm sorry but I hope the Angels want to keep Trout around for a lot longer than 2 extra years. I certainly hope he is here for longer than that. If that's all they can get out of him so be it but I'd be incredibly disappointed.

I would be shocked if Arte doesn't try to blow Trout away with an offer. It's not about the money, it's about keeping your own young talented superstar on your team for a long time. If Trout doesn't want to stay here then he won't sign an extension.

[GregAlso]

They calculate the payroll at the end of the season. All contracts count. The only way Trout gets an extension now is to save them AAV payroll dollars next offseason. I'd give him a two year extension. Best for both sides. Still have two more after that to try to get him to sign an extension.

Yes, they calculate it at the end of the year in terms of bonuses and do they pay the full year. But Jeff Fletcher from OCR has already pointed out that any new contracts signed after opening day don't calculate AAV until the following year.

[Ohtaniland]

Yea, I don't agree. I would get together with Trout and his agent and give him a nice little raise for this coming year, maybe $1.5 or $2 million. When I got together with his agent I would tell him that you would like to sign him after the season starts to an amazing deal, one that will set him up for life. Really when all is said and done you are asking Trout to wait four more months for his big pay day. It really isn't that big a deal. Especially if you sell it as you are trying to improve the team that he will be playing on for next year and the future. Now if you get shut out and can't come up with a contract with Garza then I have no problem giving Trout his big contract now.

 

I will ask them for so much money that they will have to put me on layaway." -Deion Sanders  (Mike Trout)

[Stradling]

Well Deion was 100% about the money so that doesn't surprise me.

[Ohtaniland]

Well Deion was 100% about the money so that doesn't surprise me.

What if Trout asks Arte to give him 10 years and $375m. Are the Angels in a position to do that now?

[Stradling]

Of course they could. They will be making $150 million in TV starting in 2015 or 16.

[YouthofToday]

What if Trout asks Arte to give him 10 years and $375m. Are the Angels in a position to do that now?

Ssay $60 the next 4 years until FA. So 6/$315 -- or an FA AAV of $52 million? That's crazy talk.

[Stradling]

I am willing to bet he would accept a 12 year $240 million contract.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Stradling

[Ohtaniland]

I am willing to bet he would accept a 12 year $240 million contract.

You're probably right. That's a lot of $$$.

[Jeff Fletcher]

I have discussed this several times with the Angels front office...

The rules for the CBT are this: if a contract is signed after opening day, and doesn't pay him any salary in that year, it doesn't count. I assume the reason that you couldn't sign him today to a 2015 contract is you can't have contracts that skip years, otherwise you could sign him to 10 different one-year contracts and avoid the whole AAV question. But if his 2014 contract is already ticking, then he can get one for 2015.

I'll also say this that I have said on other threads: there is no reason to pay him anything extravagant (more than 600k) in 2014 unless you believe that he's the kind of guy who will be upset and pouty that a system that's been in place for years doesn't apply to him because he's special. If you think that about him, you don't think much of him.

In reality, it's Trout's agent, not Trout, that is a little whiny about the whole thing. His agent is the one who screwed him last year by making it an issue.

Trout's fair market value is $20M. If you pay him $600K or $1M or $3M or $5M you are still screwing him. Those are the rules. Teams get to screw you for three years. Players get to screw the teams for most of the rest of their careers.

[Halos of Anaheim]

That would leave him as an Angel till he's 34, don't think he does that tbh.

[YouthofToday]

Jeff, great post.

The one quibble I have is with Trout fair market value. $20 million? To be honest if he was a true free agent, and only wanted a one year deal, he would get more than $35 million -- if not $50 million.

His fair market vale is at least $25 million.

[Brent Maguire]

Good post Jeff.

 

I agree with YOT about his market value though. 20 million a year is what Choo just got guaranteed. Trout is worth around 30 million per year for a long term deal, if not more. 

[Chuck]

If Tanaka is not a viable option, the Angels should do everything they can to extend Trout and go into the season with what they have.

None of the other pitchers available are going to help this team outside of Garza and he is a huge risk because of arm injuries and how much he will be paid. Already it will be tough for the Angels to make the playoffs this upcoming season, no need to recklessly spend money on pitching.

Of course I don't know how much it would cost to extend Trout or if he actually would sign an extension but I would rather the Angels kept that money for that possibility than sink money into another big pitching contract.

Every starting pitcher is a huge risk. Just one shoulder or elbow injury away from missing a year and not coming back effective.

Garza is a Damn good pitcher, if we can get him I'm sure we'll get a 3.50 ERA, 20+ QS's and near 200 k's from him.

BTW, signing Garza has no bearing on signing Trout to a long term extension.

[Jeff Fletcher]

I understand Trout's value on the open market is more like 30M a year. His extension will be closer to 20 because he's not a free agent and it will include arb years.

In any case, the point was that he's going to be underpaid no matter what you pay him so there's no reason to pay him extra just to be nice.

There's no evidence that what you pay guys as 0-3s has any impact on what happens to them in arbitration or when they negotiate extensions.

The Phillies I believe paid Ryan Howard about double what they had to in his 2+ season (after winning the MVP) and he still took them to a hearing and won a record award in his first arb year.

Sometime in 2014 the Angels will offer Trout an 8-10 year deal at 18-22M per year and he'll take it. It's easy to say he should hold out for 30M a yr he'd get a free agent or just take a shorter deal to become a FA, but in reality it's a compromise. There's no guarantee he's going to stay awesome and healthy forever, so if someone offers you 200M you take it. Then if all goes as well as you hope, you get another contract when you're 31 or 32 and cash in again.