A little optimism…

[Adam]

If they lock up ohtani what is the path for them to contend in the next few years? I do not see one. 

if they trade ohtani and get 3+ future regulars / 1+ all star the path is pretty clear.

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, Adam said:

If they lock up ohtani what is the path for them to contend in the next few years? I do not see one. 

if they trade ohtani and get 3+ future regulars / 1+ all star the path is pretty clear.

People who believe that's the type of return they'd get if they traded Ohtani for the last ~50 games of the season aren't living in reality.

[Stradling]

16 hours ago, Trendon said:

Yes.

I’d be shocked if they trade him, but the bar to beat with a comp pick is pretty low.

According to FanGraphs, a pick in the compensation range is typically a 40 or 40+ FV prospect, maybe 45 FV prospect max, when they’re drafted.

T100 prospects are 50 FV or higher, and I’m pretty sure you could get at least one T100 prospect in an Ohtani deal.

Unfortunately, the value they could’ve gotten back for him last year is a sunk cost now. So all they can do is get the best they can for him now, unless they go on a run the next two weeks before the deadline.

Sorry but you are either lying to us or lying to yourself. You absolutely will take issue with the return if they trade Ohtani. 

[Duren, Duren]

Don't underestimate the loss of a productive Walsh. He was supposedly a long term lock at first with 20+ homers expected. And elite defense.

Since then it's been an underwhelming rotation. 

[BTH]

12 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Sorry but you are either lying to us or lying to yourself. You absolutely will take issue with the return if they trade Ohtani. 

Assuming they don’t go on a run before the deadline, I’m not gonna take any issue with them trading Ohtani so long as the return is worth more than the equivalent of a comp round pick.

Again, I’d be shocked if he actually gets traded. But if he is, that’s my stance and I’m sure you’ll be the first one to hold me to it.

[Adam]

21 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

People who believe that's the type of return they'd get if they traded Ohtani for the last ~50 games of the season aren't living in reality.

You don’t think he’d bring in that type of return? I’m talking about prospects projected to become major leaguers not guys already on rosters.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Adam said:

You don’t think he’d bring in that type of return? I’m talking about prospects projected to become major leaguers not guys already on rosters.

Nope, not for 50 games. Maybe 10 years ago, you'd get that type of haul, but not these days. 

[VladdyforHOF]

I'm with the AngelsWin Podcast on this one - I'm not hanging my hopes on Brandon Drury. Gio Urshela was a huge loss to this team. That's the guy you know will put the ball in play with a runner on 3rd and 1 out.

[Angels 1961]

42 minutes ago, VladdyforHOF said:

I'm with the AngelsWin Podcast on this one - I'm not hanging my hopes on Brandon Drury. Gio Urshela was a huge loss to this team. That's the guy you know will put the ball in play with a runner on 3rd and 1 out.

Gio was the guy to replace Rendon in case of injury. He gets injured and out for year. What are the odds of that happening? 

[Revad]

This would have been a good year for Rengifo to become a semi-regular at least.  I still wonder if it might be better to put Drury at 1st and Rengifo at second, Moose on the bench.  

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, warped said:

The goat should be an angel for life

 

2 hours ago, Adam said:

The goal should be to fleece a farm system and start over

So get rid of the goat and be a sheep?

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

If they lock up ohtani what is the path for them to contend in the next few years? I do not see one. 

if they trade ohtani and get 3+ future regulars / 1+ all star the path is pretty clear.

To answer this one seriously, while I agree that they should probably trade Ohtani--barring a miraculous next couple weeks--the key to them contending going forward is less Trout and Ohtani and more everyone else.

I'm playing with a more extended article about this, but basically they've been lacking a solid supporting cast after Trout or Trout/Ohtani for years - really not since 2014, when they had a bunch of regulars produce above average seasons (I'm talking position players). Since then, it has been Trout and one or two other guys like Calhoun, Simmons, and Ohtani, and really not much else.

I'll cook something up and post it a bit later tonight.

 

[Tank]

4 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

Don't underestimate the loss of a productive Walsh. He was supposedly a long term lock at first with 20+ homers expected. And elite defense.

Since then it's been an underwhelming rotation. 

valid point. the conversational tone around here the last month or so has not included walsh in any future plans from any of us. it seems most everyone has written him off.

i hope we're all 100% wrong about him and he makes a terrific comeback.

[ThisismineScios]

6 hours ago, Trendon said:

Maybe they should try Rendon leadoff since he’s so good at working counts but isn’t slugging as much?

On the flip side, however, he’ll get less opportunities with RISP.

Ward’s biggest issue is he has been awful with RISP, 

I actually love this idea. He'd get a ton of FBs in front of Ohtani, and he's not going to watch the first one down the middle and foul the second one off every single time like Ward does. 

I actually think the reason they're batting Ward leadoff is he is working counts, walking, and is absolutely atrocious with RISP. In one of my fits of rage a few weeks ago I looked it up on Fangraphs. He is essentially either the 2nd or 3rd worst batter with RISP in the majors depending on how you define a regular. 

6 hours ago, Trendon said:

His good defense and ability to hit mistakes will keep him in the majors, but he’s gotta clean up some of his plate discipline in order to find success once the league better adjusts to him.

I think he's criminally miscast batting leadoff. The idea is probably to let him see fastballs, but he's been a good run producer. I'd love to have him batting behind Drury and in front of Ward or O'Hoppe (sad face). In a perfect world, with a better Renfroe and a good 1B, he bats 8th in front of Neto and they turn over the lineup. 

[ThisismineScios]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

valid point. the conversational tone around here the last month or so has not included walsh in any future plans from any of us. it seems most everyone has written him off.

i hope we're all 100% wrong about him and he makes a terrific comeback.

Him and Stassi really kind of make me sad. Jared is a great guy and I really hope he can figure it out. They need his fire. 

[jsnpritchett]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

valid point. the conversational tone around here the last month or so has not included walsh in any future plans from any of us. it seems most everyone has written him off.

i hope we're all 100% wrong about him and he makes a terrific comeback.

For future planning purposes, I think you pretty much do have to work under the assumption that Walsh isn't going to be a factor and make plans for his replacement.  If he gets fully healthy and recaptures what he had in 2021, then that's a great problem to have (two good bats at 1B).  As much as I like him as a person (and as a personality), you can't go into 2024 (or the 2nd half of '23) counting on him to contribute.

[cals]

6 hours ago, Adam said:

If they lock up ohtani what is the path for them to contend in the next few years? I do not see one. 

if they trade ohtani and get 3+ future regulars / 1+ all star the path is pretty clear.

And this was clear last year when the haul would have been legendary and the franchise embarrassment slightly less.

[BTH]

I’m fascinated by the statuses of Stassi, Walsh, Suarez, and Rengifo.

Stassi’s in a separate category, but the other 3 could be non-tendered this offseason unless they show something in the majors the rest of this season.

Not too long ago, all 4 were viewed as critical pieces.

[BTH]

Just now, Trendon said:

I’m fascinated by the statuses of Stassi, Walsh, Suarez, and Rengifo.

Stassi’s in a separate category, but the other 3 could be non-tendered this offseason unless they show something in the majors the rest of this season.

Not too long ago, all 4 were viewed as critical pieces.

Additionally, I’m perplexed by the non-updates on Davis Daniel, Chris Rodriguez, and Jose Marte.

We’ve heard nothing on them the last month.

We haven’t heard anything about Stassi, for obvious reasons, but I’m beginning to wonder if he’ll ever play again.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

8 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

For future planning purposes, I think you pretty much do have to work under the assumption that Walsh isn't going to be a factor and make plans for his replacement.  If he gets fully healthy and recaptures what he had in 2021, then that's a great problem to have (two good bats at 1B).  As much as I like him as a person (and as a personality), you can't go into 2024 (or the 2nd half of '23) counting on him to contribute.

Pretty sure Walsh will be DFA'd this offseason. How else is he supposed to hit 32 homers and get an all-star appearance for some random NL team next season? 

[Jay]

10 hours ago, cals said:

And this was clear last year when the haul would have been legendary and the franchise embarrassment slightly less.

Last year it made sense to extend Ohtani for one year while the team was being sold.

[fan_since79]

3 hours ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

Pretty sure Walsh will be DFA'd this offseason. How else is he supposed to hit 32 homers and get an all-star appearance for some random NL team next season? 

That would be so typical Angels.

[Hubs]

18 hours ago, Adam said:

If they lock up ohtani what is the path for them to contend in the next few years? I do not see one. 

if they trade ohtani and get 3+ future regulars / 1+ all star the path is pretty clear.

If you think that's what they're getting back you are smoking the good stuff.

They are likely to get 2 mediocre to good players and 2 good prospects probably in High A ball or lower.

If they lock up Ohtani, they have the two best players in the AL. They have good players at 4-5 other positions, so they need depth, as Urshela, Renfroe are free agents. 

They will need another starter, and they'll have to spend. In the pen, Loup is gone, but Moore should be resigned. They will need to add 1-2 relievers. 

[Angel Oracle]

Any updates on Neto, Drury, Rendon, and Moore?

[Angels 1961]

29 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Any updates on Neto, Drury, Rendon, and Moore?

My optimism will go up if they comeback Friday.