Taylor Ward's struggles

[Docwaukee]

So we're seeing him struggle at the plate this year so far.  Is it going to continue or is this just a blip?

His career BABIP is .309 and this year it's .261

His bb and k rates are similar if not better than last year. 

His avg EV is down a very small amount.  His LA is down a decent amount (more on that in a bit).  And he's barreling at about 7% where as last year he was at 12.1%.  Which has led to a decrease in his hard hit rate although not by a ton.   

His expected wOBA is .324 which is 22 point above his actual so that, along with his BABIP shows us that there's some bad luck there and his GB rate is way up at 44% where it was 35% last year.  LD rate is down a fair amount.  So it appears that he's just not squaring the ball up like he did last year cause more grounders and therefore more outs. 

But why? 

The only thing I could find statistically is that they are pitching him inside a lot more.  As well as up in the zone with fastballs.  Tying him up inside and not letting the barrel get to the ball as frequently.   I think he's a good enough hitter to eventually adjust to that.  They're basically giving him the Trout treatment.  

I also wonder if his mechanics are just a bit off.  Where it's just a slight timing issue that needs an adjustment.  

[Adam]

Or maybe he kinda sucks

[ten ocho recon scout]

13 minutes ago, Adam said:

Or maybe he kinda sucks

I have no idea if this is true or not.

But last year when he was Trout-lite, and everyone was going apeshit for him, I kept quiet. Like Walsh before him.

Simply because I never heard either one of them mentioned as big deals while in the minors. So a few hot weeks didn't sell me that we solved a position long term.

I'll chalk up the current to he's in a slump, and it happens. But I'd caution anyone expecting him to rebound back to April 2022. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Either way, I'd move him out of the leadoff spit pronto.

[Lou]

Just now, ten ocho recon scout said:

Either way, I'd move him out of the leadoff spit pronto.

I used to know a chick that was called leadoff spit.

[AngelsLakersFan]

48 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

So we're seeing him struggle at the plate this year so far.  Is it going to continue or is this just a blip?

His career BABIP is .309 and this year it's .261

His bb and k rates are similar if not better than last year. 

His avg EV is down a very small amount.  His LA is down a decent amount (more on that in a bit).  And he's barreling at about 7% where as last year he was at 12.1%.  Which has led to a decrease in his hard hit rate although not by a ton.   

His expected wOBA is .324 which is 22 point above his actual so that, along with his BABIP shows us that there's some bad luck there and his GB rate is way up at 44% where it was 35% last year.  LD rate is down a fair amount.  So it appears that he's just not squaring the ball up like he did last year cause more grounders and therefore more outs. 

But why? 

The only thing I could find statistically is that they are pitching him inside a lot more.  As well as up in the zone with fastballs.  Tying him up inside and not letting the barrel get to the ball as frequently.   I think he's a good enough hitter to eventually adjust to that.  They're basically giving him the Trout treatment.  

I also wonder if his mechanics are just a bit off.  Where it's just a slight timing issue that needs an adjustment.  

He’s doing something slightly different with his front leg this year and I have no idea why. It’s subtle but it looks a bit off from last year.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

He’s doing something slightly different with his front leg this year and I have no idea why. It’s subtle but it looks a bit off from last year.

not that I would know but it looks like he's closing off his front side more than last year where it's causing him problems on pitches inside and up in the zone.  

[T.G.]

I thought that coach from... I don't remember where... fixed Ward and everyone (not literally everyone) wanted him on the staff, full time.

[Adam]

He'll be fine I think. .350+ OBP by end of it

[Angelsfan1984]

Drop him down in the lineup...and for the love of god, extend renfroe immediately.

[Dtwncbad]

[Dtwncbad]

52 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

not that I would know but it looks like he's closing off his front side more than last year where it's causing him problems on pitches inside and up in the zone.  

I said before that it seems like he is a very mechanical hitter rather than a natural hitter.  I really don’t care how a guy produces, but I think the mechanical hitters have to have everything go right to produce and are more likely to slump.  Pitchers have a better chance to make an adjustment against mechanical hitters, and then the hitter has to make some other adjustment.

I want Ward to thrive but I don’t have the highest confidence in his success being sustainable.

[Taylor]

Daddy DiPoto called and said, "You better not disappoint me this year."

[BTH]

3 hours ago, T.G. said:

I thought that coach from... I don't remember where... fixed Ward and everyone (not literally everyone) wanted him on the staff, full time.

that coach (Trent Woodward) also worked with Matt Duffy in the offseason. And (SSS) Duffy is hitting .359./390/.487 after being awful with the Angels last season.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, T.G. said:

I thought that coach from... I don't remember where... fixed Ward and everyone (not literally everyone) wanted him on the staff, full time.

Pfft... We already did a 180 on Trent whatever his name is when Brett Phillips didn't morph into Babe Ruth...  

But seriously - hire as many of those guys as possible, it's what the Dodgers do, they hire a ton of coaches and have them all work with guys.

[totdprods]

Gonna need more than the first ~100 plate appearances to write off Ward. His defense has been pretty good from what I have seen, and he hasn’t been totally lost at the plate. Think the guy knows he has a lot expected of him this year - new position, better defense, live up to offensive hype, set table for the two greatest players in the game, the Angels sky-high expectations this year as is…giving him a little more leeway before I start getting too worried.

[ukyah]

he's not been terrible this year. but he's either a little off or having some bad luck. his obp is 324 i think, his counting stats haven't fallen off a cliff, which means he's keeping it together overall. i think he's a very good hitter now and he'll figure out either what he's doing wrong or how to adjust to what they're doing to him.

[cals]

5 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Drop him down in the lineup...and for the love of god, extend renfroe immediately.

What if Renfroe has already extended me?

[Second Base]

Last year, Ward was driving through the ball, keeping his weight back and finishing "big breasted" which just means arms, hands through the zone, chest out like you're Superman showing off your S.

Watching him this year, he's out on his front foot, swinging at the ball or to the ball, not through it. I'm seeing someone completely different right now that needs to go back to what was working before.

Part of me wonders if he's nursing some kind of shoulder, clavicle or pectoral injury that's preventing him from completing the same swing as the past, and he's just too stubborn to say anything, not wanting to be unseated by Moniak, Adell or Adams. 

Either way, it's hard to see any justifiable reason behind the swing change. Watching as much film, and working on his swing as much as he does, it's hard to imagine him deliberately making his swing tangibly worse.

 

[Angelsjunky]

I believe in Ward. Obviously not the early 2022 version, but you don't hit that well for that long without being good. I see him eventually settling in at around .280/.850ish.

[Angel Oracle]

12 hours ago, Second Base said:

Last year, Ward was driving through the ball, keeping his weight back and finishing "big breasted" which just means arms, hands through the zone, chest out like you're Superman showing off your S.

Watching him this year, he's out on his front foot, swinging at the ball or to the ball, not through it. I'm seeing someone completely different right now that needs to go back to what was working before.

Part of me wonders if he's nursing some kind of shoulder, clavicle or pectoral injury that's preventing him from completing the same swing as the past, and he's just too stubborn to say anything, not wanting to be unseated by Moniak, Adell or Adams. 

Either way, it's hard to see any justifiable reason behind the swing change. Watching as much film, and working on his swing as much as he does, it's hard to imagine him deliberately making his swing tangibly worse.

 

Where’s the bat doctor who fixed him before?   They did hire him.

[cals]

12 hours ago, Second Base said:

 finishing "big breasted"

[Taylor]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I believe in Ward. Obviously not the early 2022 version, but you don't hit that well for that long without being good. I see him eventually settling in at around .280/.850ish.

Now he's doomed.

 

 

 

 

JK I agree with you.

[John Taylor]

On 4/25/2022 Taylor Ward hit 2 homers against Shane Beiber and the Indians Guardians, and finished the day with an OPS of 1.225.

On 4/25/2023 Taylor had an OPS of .655 (He did get 2 hits against the A's that day though and raised his OPS to a whopping .669....nice).

 

I decided to screenshot his batting stance/swing to see if there is a visual difference (The 2022 at bat is his 1st HR off Beiber). I am not a hitting coach and this is purely an amateur visual commentary:

 

1.) The stance. My first thought is that he looks a lot (this year) like the light hitting Ward we all remember pre-2022. His left leg is slightly in a more open stance, elbow is higher, and the bat isn't as level off the shoulder.

He also generally looks less imposing. I remember early in 2022 watching his ABs and thinking "This guy looks like he is gonna hit the ball hard"

 

2.) The leg kick. he already looks off balance. in the 2022 game he looks to be kicking "up" with his stance ready to drive the ball. In the 2023 he seems to be kicking "forward" and flying open.

 

3.) The follow through. This is the most striking to me. The 2022 AB (HR) his head is level, his left leg is balanced, he seems to be driving off of it.  The 2023 AB (Swinging K) he is pretty off balance, seems to be coming off his left heel.

 

 

This is just a small sample size, I could be talking out of my ass, and MLB has a lot smarter people looking into far more advanced stuff than an arm chair guy like me who can struggle his way through a photoshop.

But most of us have watched baseball for most of, if not, all our lives and we've seen enough ABs to kind of have a "feel" for when someone doesn't quite look right. Taylor Ward currently doesn't look right in the box.

(Thank you for attending my TED talk, lol)

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 hours ago, John Taylor said:

On 4/25/2022 Taylor Ward hit 2 homers against Shane Beiber and the Indians Guardians, and finished the day with an OPS of 1.225.

On 4/25/2023 Taylor had an OPS of .655 (He did get 2 hits against the A's that day though and raised his OPS to a whopping .669....nice).

 

I decided to screenshot his batting stance/swing to see if there is a visual difference (The 2022 at bat is his 1st HR off Beiber). I am not a hitting coach and this is purely an amateur visual commentary:

 

1.) The stance. My first thought is that he looks a lot (this year) like the light hitting Ward we all remember pre-2022. His left leg is slightly in a more open stance, elbow is higher, and the bat isn't as level off the shoulder.

He also generally looks less imposing. I remember early in 2022 watching his ABs and thinking "This guy looks like he is gonna hit the ball hard"

 

2.) The leg kick. he already looks off balance. in the 2022 game he looks to be kicking "up" with his stance ready to drive the ball. In the 2023 he seems to be kicking "forward" and flying open.

 

3.) The follow through. This is the most striking to me. The 2022 AB (HR) his head is level, his left leg is balanced, he seems to be driving off of it.  The 2023 AB (Swinging K) he is pretty off balance, seems to be coming off his left heel.

 

 

This is just a small sample size, I could be talking out of my ass, and MLB has a lot smarter people looking into far more advanced stuff than an arm chair guy like me who can struggle his way through a photoshop.

But most of us have watched baseball for most of, if not, all our lives and we've seen enough ABs to kind of have a "feel" for when someone doesn't quite look right. Taylor Ward currently doesn't look right in the box.

(Thank you for attending my TED talk, lol)

The leg kick in the second photo is what I was referring to earlier