Latest on Angels sale

[Revad]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

I've seen discussion of this in the past, but I don't have a number. That would be a better question for @Jeff Fletcher. I doubt he could give you anything precise, but he might have a better rough estimate than anyone on here. The reality is that due to the Japanese market, Ohtani is potentially worth a lot more to an owner than most stars. 

It’s probably not worth a $500 million contract in the long run unless it’s in appreciation of the team.  If I was in it for the money I’d let him walk.

[Pancake Bear]

10 minutes ago, Revad said:

It’s probably not worth a $500 million contract in the long run unless it’s in appreciation of the team.  If I was in it for the money I’d let him walk.

Disagree. His value on the field if healthy will provide most of it. Marketing likely covers more than whatever remains. Admittedly, he's likely to be worth a lot at the start and much less at the end, but I'd argue he is actually going to be more worth whatever he gets than nearly any big star, although obviously his health will be a factor in that. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

Disagree. His value on the field if healthy will provide most of it. Marketing likely covers more than whatever remains. Admittedly, he's likely to be worth a lot at the start and much less at the end, but I'd argue he is actually going to be more worth whatever he gets than nearly any big star, although obviously his health will be a factor in that. 

He’s not bringing back the money they are paying him unless they win. Not now and certainly not when he gets $42 million a year for 10-12 years. 

[Revad]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

He’s not bringing back the money they are paying him unless they win. Not now and certainly not when he gets $42 million a year for 10-12 years. 

$42 million each year, seems like he’s replaceable at that point.  I’m not confident the pitching will hold up more than a few years.

[Second Base]

42 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

He was one of the few who voted against Manfred becoming commissioner. 

Cohen too.

[TempeAngel]

1 hour ago, ukyah said:

i would like to follow a team of an owner i actually liked as a person. so far, my clear preference would be lacob. i don't want LAT owner and i have no knowledge of anybody else. also, i'm totally convinced lacob knows how to successfully operate a winning franchise.

Is a Lacob group in the running? That would be great.

PSS seems like he comes with built in issues.

[Taylor]

3 hours ago, Blarg said:

Shiong is Chinese, Ohtani Japanese. The two cultures do not get along, never had, so don't think for a moment that the sale gives any guarantees to extending Ohtani's contract. 

Who is saying anything about Shiong's nationality? Besides you, of course.

[Revad]

6 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Who is saying anything about Shiong's nationality? Besides you, of course.

Racist for calling out racism.

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

He’s not bringing back the money they are paying him unless they win. Not now and certainly not when he gets $42 million a year for 10-12 years. 

From a fan sentiment, sure, I agree.  But from a dollar, financial return perspective - is that really true?  I would imagine his presence on the team increases ticket sales, fans buying jerseys, and so on.  I was just mainly curious if anyone has seen any kind of financial estimates about the kind of financial impact having Ohtani on the club would have.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

From a fan sentiment, sure, I agree.  But from a dollar, financial return perspective - is that really true?  I would imagine his presence on the team increases ticket sales, fans buying jerseys, and so on.  I was just mainly curious if anyone has seen any kind of financial estimates about the kind of financial impact having Ohtani on the club would have.

The way merchandise sales go is all mlb licensed merchandise is shared amongst all teams and then the players union.  So the Angels get as much revenue for an Ohtani Jersey as they do a Judge Jersey. 

[Blarg]

58 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Who is saying anything about Shiong's nationality? Besides you, of course.

This is obviously a subject matter you were never prepared to discuss, the chance possibility that racism and bigotry exists outside of your black and white thinking. 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

From a fan sentiment, sure, I agree.  But from a dollar, financial return perspective - is that really true?  I would imagine his presence on the team increases ticket sales, fans buying jerseys, and so on.  I was just mainly curious if anyone has seen any kind of financial estimates about the kind of financial impact having Ohtani on the club would have.

 

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

The way merchandise sales go is all mlb licensed merchandise is shared amongst all teams and then the players union.  So the Angels get as much revenue for an Ohtani Jersey as they do a Judge Jersey. 

I was looking through attendance on Ohtani starts.  There are a ton of variables to take into account like was it a day game during the week.  was there a give away.  Was the team doing well at the time.  Who was the opponent.  etc.  

It would have to be a pretty comprehensive analysis but just a little back of the napkin math.  

mlb ticket revenue is around 3b per year with about 70m fans.  So on average its about $40 per fan game per year. 

from looking at just his pitching starts it seems he draws in about 5k extra fans per start at home and fewer on the road.  Maybe about 2k?  So about 100k fans in his pitching starts.  My guess would be that about an extra 1000 or so fans per game come to the stadium because of Ohtani if you average home and road games.  So he's responsible for maybe 250k fans?  At $40 each that's about 10m.  Plus, I wonder if there are incentives in the TV contract somehow (I've always wondered about that in terms of Arte's motivation for going with the big splash btw).  Doubtful but in stadium advertising likely gets a boost depending on location.  Like anything where Ohtani that can be seen when Ohtani hits one of his 20+ bombs at home or behind home plate when he's pitching.  So who the hell knows how that works but in general it's probably another couple few mil that can be attributed to Ohtani. 

So my very crude guess is probably 10-15m per year above most players. But that's his peak value from a marketing standpoint right now.  

If he ends up with a 500m contract, my guess is that about 100m of that is offset by the name on his Jersey.  So you'd need 400m worth of value on the field.  At about 8m per WAR, that's 50 WAR spread over 12 years. 

He might get more than 500m.      

[Warfarin]

14 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

 

I was looking through attendance on Ohtani starts.  There are a ton of variables to take into account like was it a day game during the week.  was there a give away.  Was the team doing well at the time.  Who was the opponent.  etc.  

It would have to be a pretty comprehensive analysis but just a little back of the napkin math.  

mlb ticket revenue is around 3b per year with about 70m fans.  So on average its about $40 per fan game per year. 

from looking at just his pitching starts it seems he draws in about 5k extra fans per start at home and fewer on the road.  Maybe about 2k?  So about 100k fans in his pitching starts.  My guess would be that about an extra 1000 or so fans per game come to the stadium because of Ohtani if you average home and road games.  So he's responsible for maybe 250k fans?  At $40 each that's about 10m.  Plus, I wonder if there are incentives in the TV contract somehow (I've always wondered about that in terms of Arte's motivation for going with the big splash btw).  Doubtful but in stadium advertising likely gets a boost depending on location.  Like anything where Ohtani that can be seen when Ohtani hits one of his 20+ bombs at home or behind home plate when he's pitching.  So who the hell knows how that works but in general it's probably another couple few mil that can be attributed to Ohtani. 

So my very crude guess is probably 10-15m per year above most players. But that's his peak value from a marketing standpoint right now.  

If he ends up with a 500m contract, my guess is that about 100m of that is offset by the name on his Jersey.  So you'd need 400m worth of value on the field.  At about 8m per WAR, that's 50 WAR spread over 12 years. 

He might get more than 500m.      

Wow, that’s some fantastic analysis there man, thanks for doing that 

[Stradling]

34 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

 

I was looking through attendance on Ohtani starts.  There are a ton of variables to take into account like was it a day game during the week.  was there a give away.  Was the team doing well at the time.  Who was the opponent.  etc.  

It would have to be a pretty comprehensive analysis but just a little back of the napkin math.  

mlb ticket revenue is around 3b per year with about 70m fans.  So on average its about $40 per fan game per year. 

from looking at just his pitching starts it seems he draws in about 5k extra fans per start at home and fewer on the road.  Maybe about 2k?  So about 100k fans in his pitching starts.  My guess would be that about an extra 1000 or so fans per game come to the stadium because of Ohtani if you average home and road games.  So he's responsible for maybe 250k fans?  At $40 each that's about 10m.  Plus, I wonder if there are incentives in the TV contract somehow (I've always wondered about that in terms of Arte's motivation for going with the big splash btw).  Doubtful but in stadium advertising likely gets a boost depending on location.  Like anything where Ohtani that can be seen when Ohtani hits one of his 20+ bombs at home or behind home plate when he's pitching.  So who the hell knows how that works but in general it's probably another couple few mil that can be attributed to Ohtani. 

So my very crude guess is probably 10-15m per year above most players. But that's his peak value from a marketing standpoint right now.  

If he ends up with a 500m contract, my guess is that about 100m of that is offset by the name on his Jersey.  So you'd need 400m worth of value on the field.  At about 8m per WAR, that's 50 WAR spread over 12 years. 

He might get more than 500m.      

I did this same thing but I went with $30 a ticket because that was the average ticket price for the Angels and it’s when I thought his salary would be at a peak of $35 million. It was 8000 fans a game he’d have to bring in to “pay his contract”. Something like that. There was a report saying Japanese advertising brought in $10 million annually. 

[Erstad Grit]

40 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

 

I was looking through attendance on Ohtani starts.  There are a ton of variables to take into account like was it a day game during the week.  was there a give away.  Was the team doing well at the time.  Who was the opponent.  etc.  

It would have to be a pretty comprehensive analysis but just a little back of the napkin math.  

mlb ticket revenue is around 3b per year with about 70m fans.  So on average its about $40 per fan game per year. 

from looking at just his pitching starts it seems he draws in about 5k extra fans per start at home and fewer on the road.  Maybe about 2k?  So about 100k fans in his pitching starts.  My guess would be that about an extra 1000 or so fans per game come to the stadium because of Ohtani if you average home and road games.  So he's responsible for maybe 250k fans?  At $40 each that's about 10m.  Plus, I wonder if there are incentives in the TV contract somehow (I've always wondered about that in terms of Arte's motivation for going with the big splash btw).  Doubtful but in stadium advertising likely gets a boost depending on location.  Like anything where Ohtani that can be seen when Ohtani hits one of his 20+ bombs at home or behind home plate when he's pitching.  So who the hell knows how that works but in general it's probably another couple few mil that can be attributed to Ohtani. 

So my very crude guess is probably 10-15m per year above most players. But that's his peak value from a marketing standpoint right now.  

If he ends up with a 500m contract, my guess is that about 100m of that is offset by the name on his Jersey.  So you'd need 400m worth of value on the field.  At about 8m per WAR, that's 50 WAR spread over 12 years. 

He might get more than 500m.      

This is a really good post

[Revad]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

From a fan sentiment, sure, I agree.  But from a dollar, financial return perspective - is that really true?  I would imagine his presence on the team increases ticket sales, fans buying jerseys, and so on.  I was just mainly curious if anyone has seen any kind of financial estimates about the kind of financial impact having Ohtani on the club would have.

I’ve heard $10 million as a seasonal increase in income, but it’s all vague to me.  If one WAR is worth $8.5 million, would you pay Ohtani $11 million?  Based on additional income?

[Lhalo]

8 hours ago, Taylor said:

He seems like one of those typical billionaires who thinks they're good at everything just because they struck gold and ended up with a ton of money (like Elon).

And his daughter seems like a typical performative billionaire's child who has no idea how to leverage her privilege to make an actual difference.

Classic Taylor post lmao. 

[Taylor]

16 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Classic Taylor post lmao. 

Gotta keep my brand alive.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

So my very crude guess is probably 10-15m per year above most players. But that's his peak value from a marketing standpoint right now.  

If he ends up with a 500m contract, my guess is that about 100m of that is offset by the name on his Jersey.  So you'd need 400m worth of value on the field.  At about 8m per WAR, that's 50 WAR spread over 12 years. 

I was gonna try to guesstimate Ohtani's value when I got home, but you beat me to it. Mine would've been even less precise, though. 

Reality is that Ohtani is worth well over $50m a season right now, maybe even over $70m per. But obviously no one is paying him that for a single season because of the payroll percentage it takes up. 

Either way, though, I'd say any discussion starts at a minimum of $400m, and Ohtani probably doesn't re-up without testing the market for anything less than $500 and 10 years. Personally, I think he's worth it unless he really falls off a cliff, which is certainly possible. Not my money, though.

I'll be shocked if new ownership doesn't go all in to lock down a new contract asap. In fact, if a new owner is settled on by Spring Training and all that remains is working out the final details of the sale, I wouldn't be surprised if a contract is agreed on by Opening Day.  

[notherhalo]

good story

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/11/01/how-patrick-soon-shiong-made-his-fortune-before-buying-the-la-times

 

10+ years ago the daughter would be a WYHI thread

[jsnpritchett]

29 minutes ago, notherhalo said:

good story

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/11/01/how-patrick-soon-shiong-made-his-fortune-before-buying-the-la-times

 

10+ years ago the daughter would be a WYHI thread

Totally agree that it's a good story!  That's why I posted it 8 hours ago in this thread.  Ha ha.  But, yes, for anyone who's interested in learning more about him, this is the definitive article.

 

[ukyah]

3 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

Is a Lacob group in the running? That would be great.

PSS seems like he comes with built in issues.

i have no idea. although it's been rumored and there are some connected dots. i was just stating an overall preference of known vs unknown.

[Stradling]

@greginpsca any comments?

[Pancake Bear]

Known facts:

- Lacob was an Angels fan when he was young.

- Lacob tried to buy the A's fifteen or so years ago and has reportedly had a standing offer to purchase them ever since. 

- Lacob did not say no when initially asked about whether he was going to make an offer. He simply said it was too early to say.

So, unless he's all in with the A's and no longer has interest in the Angels - which is possible, but unlikely - or if the price is too much - which is almost certainly not an issue since almost anyone these days would need an ownership group to purchase a team - it seems likely that he's one of the people involved.

But we don't know for sure. 

[Dtwncbad]

At this point I am pulling for Thurston Howell III to buy the team just so I can read everyday about how much Taylor loathes him.