Angels sign Brandon Drury (2 years, $17 million), DFA Oliver Ortega

[Dtwncbad]

14 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Ok, so I inflated that a bit. But Angels 1861 is a moron. 

Fangraphs has him playing 141 games in the three OF spots, mostly LF, hitting .260 with a .345 OBP a .443 SLG and a .788 OPS with 28 2B and 22 HR.

Steamer is the exact same but more AB's (in the same number of games?) 29 Doubles and 23 HR. 

They have his BABIP dropping from .325 though to .301.

I think those are a bit conservative, based on what he showed. He had three really really good months last year and three bad ones. I don't think that continues. He will have good months and bad, but the numbers in the good months were much closer to his post catching stats in the minors. In 2018 he hit .349 / .446 / .531 / .977 OPS in the minors. 2019 it was .306 / .427 / .584. 

In his three good months last year he hit .346 / .430 / .632 / 1.062 OPS.

He won't stay that hot all season, but I don't think he'll slump as bad.

So maybe if he stays healthy and stays productive, maybe the .297 / .377 / .525 production is doable.

 

For the record I knew that wasn’t your literal prediction.  I just notice there seems to be, in general, a little overconfidence on Ward at this point.  I am really happy he got it going finally but I am cautious to assume anything quite yet.

And Angels1961 is the only poster I have ever put on ignore, so I feel you.

[Inside Pitch]

13 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I’m really not trying to be anything. I’m tired of the same old crap. Everyone here all wants the same thing and that’s for the Angels to win. Some of us have differing opinions on the route needed to get there

Well golly, if you're tired of the same old crap, perhaps you should write a stern letter to Perry and tell him how you feel.

Dude, spare me the Joan of Arc routine, nobody is saying you can't have a different opinion or disagree with whatever moves they are making but if you're going to go on record saying something verifiably stupid like you just did either argue why the data is flawed or admit maybe you should have looked a little deeper.  BTW, the counter argument to my post is that those projections might be a bit optimistic because we have no way of knowing how the playing time will be allocated.

Yes everyone wants to see them win, do better.  No, not everyone feels the need to bitch and moan at every turn. I've pretty much ignored all your posts until now and only responded because you chose to bring up the dollars spent while not taking into consideration the costs of wins.  "Yikes" indeed.

BTW -- thanks to the Mets and Yankees, the cost of 1 WAR is likely going to go up.  So, they could possibly come in with even more surplus value should they actually play to their projections.

 

[Inside Pitch]

32 minutes ago, Blarg said:

What Perry has done so far this off season is what I had hoped for last. It would have kept Adell in AAA where he needed to be for one more season and eliminated the necessity to rely on a defense only SS and backups that provided negative value. 

The Angels can go to war with this bunch. Sure, a couple of relievers would be nice but I think they are now competitive and can let the minor league talent rise when it's ready.

What Perry has done is what I was hoping he would do and I truly believe he may have done if not weighed down by Captain 1985 and his idea of how the game should be played and teams should be built.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

What Perry has done is what I was hoping he would do and I truly believe he may have done if not weighed down by Captain 1985 and his idea of how the game should be played and teams should be built.

Someone's pedigree doesn't necessarily indicate what they would do, but that said, I am a huge fan of how the Braves have built and constructed their team, and I was hoping to see Minasian use similar ideas and strategies over here.

I think he has, so far, employed a number of them.  I'm a fan of how he has gone about trying to build this team this offseason.  Even if the results don't follow (shit does happen), I think the process and decision making he has shown have been very solid, and I hope the new owner gives him more time here (as opposed to firing him immediately and replacing him with "their guy.")

[Dtwncbad]

45 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

I’m really not trying to be anything. I’m tired of the same old crap.

I am wondering if you missed the tiny detail that the team is being sold to a new owner?

With that pending imminently, this really IS the right time to wail about being tired of nothing ever changing.

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, CanadianHalo said:

Fangraphs projections has Drury’s projected WAR at 1.6

Urshela at 1.2, Renfroe at 2.0

For a grand total of 4.8 WAR

And in 2023 these guys are set to make a combined total of 29.75 million… 

Big yikes. 

They also take about 1500 plate appearances from the group that produced -7.0 WAR last year.  

WAR costs 10m per.  probably more now as I haven't seen the calc in awhile.  You get half of that -7.0 taken away plus the 5 ish they're projected for and you're getting around 8 wins by adding those guys.  Conservatively.  That's the impact of depth for this team.  It doesn't work like that for every team but when you have almost no position players in the upper minors who could step in and capably fill a spot with 0-1 wins, it's a huge delta.  Would you spend 30m a year for 8 wins?  

[Hubs]

17 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

For the record I knew that wasn’t your literal prediction.  I just notice there seems to be, in general, a little overconfidence on Ward at this point.  I am really happy he got it going finally but I am cautious to assume anything quite yet.

And Angels1961 is the only poster I have ever put on ignore, so I feel you.

Ward is one of my favorite players on the team and I am always optimistic about his performance. That being said, I hope he has a few months at those peaks again, and a few at a slighty lower floor.

Say he has the exact same April, May and Sept, and has a Good July too, but he slumps a bit in June and August.

Say to a .250 AVG / .313 / .387  .700 OPS for his two bad months (instead of a .600 OPS) and then his other good month not quite as Troutlike. That would be a really good season, All-Star Quality.

[Docwaukee]

32 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Well golly, if you're tired of the same old crap, perhaps you should write a stern letter to Perry and tell him how you feel.

Dude, spare me the Joan of Arc routine, nobody is saying you can't have a different opinion or disagree with whatever moves they are making but if you're going to go on record saying something verifiably stupid like you just did either argue why the data is flawed or admit maybe you should have looked a little deeper.  BTW, the counter argument to my post is that those projections might be a bit optimistic because we have no way of knowing how the playing time will be allocated.

Yes everyone wants to see them win, do better.  No, not everyone feels the need to bitch and moan at every turn. I've pretty much ignored all your posts until now and only responded because you chose to bring up the dollars spent while not taking into consideration the costs of wins.  "Yikes" indeed.

BTW -- thanks to the Mets and Yankees, the cost of 1 WAR is likely going to go up.  So, they could possibly come in with even more surplus value should they actually play to their projections.

 

And this is a far far cry from the same 'same old off season'.  Payroll is up and being spend on useful players.  Not some splashy move.  

Also, if it does turn out that the projection are a bit high because these guys got less playing time then it's most likely that other guys in front of them are staying healthy and performing well.  I'm fine with wasting a few mil because we don't need the back up as much as we thought.  

But now that they have it, they're gonna use it.  They're gonna keep guys fresh by giving them days off.  No more putting a guy in a lineup when all he can do is bunt.  

 

[rafibomb]

I don't see how this is the same old thing when we are actually getting actual Major League hitters with recent success to shore up our crippling depth problem rather than waiver wire pickups and minor league deals.

[Inside Pitch]

50 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

I don't see how this is the same old thing when we are actually getting actual Major League hitters with recent success to shore up our crippling depth problem rather than waiver wire pickups and minor league deals.

Two 120 OPS+ everyday players (former teams), and a SP coming off a solid season on a three year deal.  "Same old thing!"

[CanadianHalo]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Well golly, if you're tired of the same old crap, perhaps you should write a stern letter to Perry and tell him how you feel.

Don’t need to. After they miss out on the playoffs again this season new ownership will want to get their own people in management roles

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, CanadianHalo said:

Don’t need to. After they miss out on the playoffs again this season new ownership will want to get their own people in management roles

Awesome, since you don't need to bitch to the people who actually need to hear it then I can just leave your posts hidden since it doesn't matter anyway.  

[Pancake Bear]

Have to be a special kind of stupid to compare the additions this year to the ones last year and say it's the same thing. That isn't rooted in analytics or any kind of facts, but the same kind of flat earth thinking that concludes that since we lost a lot of games last season there's nothing we could do to win a lot of games this year. It's moronic. 

[Pancake Bear]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Awesome, since you don't need to bitch to the people who actually need to hear it then I can just leave your posts hidden since it doesn't matter anyway.  

I did that last week. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

Have to be a special kind of stupid to compare the additions this year to the ones last year and say it's the same thing. That isn't rooted in analytics or any kind of facts, but the same kind of flat earth thinking that concludes that since we lost a lot of games last season there's nothing we could do to win a lot of games this year. It's moronic. 

There are some people who just like being perpetually miserable, I think.  Every fan base has them.  Oh well.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

I did that last week. 

Did you start yours with "Dear F#%&face!"??? 

I like to set the tone early.

Waiting on their reply.

[Docwaukee]

50 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

I don't see how this is the same old thing when we are actually getting actual Major League hitters with recent success to shore up our crippling depth problem rather than waiver wire pickups and minor league deals.

In the past it was sign one really expensive player every 3-4 years and then fill all the other holes with 10 pounds of crap.  Or it was to spend money and assets on boom or bust fliers.  Like trading for a an upton type and committing several years when 1-2 on solid players that are more consistent could really help the team.  

Drury is a bit more risky than some of the other options that were out there though so we'll see how it works out but the upside is that you can get away with him just doing fine.  

But then they coupled the stupid with the way they made trades.  Moving anything of remote value for immediate help.  Like with Santiago or Kinsler or Syndergaard or Heaney or Goodwin and others for fringy borderline roster guys.  Or not taking the opportunity to trade guys of even some value when you know the team sucks.  

Imagine if they had exchanged those guys for lower level prospects over the years.  

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

In the past it was sign one really expensive player every 3-4 years and then fill all the other holes with 10 pounds of crap.  Or it was to spend money and assets on boom or bust fliers.  Like trading for a an upton type and committing several years when 1-2 on solid players that are more consistent could really help the team.  

Drury is a bit more risky than some of the other options that were out there though so we'll see how it works out but the upside is that you can get away with him just doing fine.  

But then they coupled the stupid with the way they made trades.  Moving anything of remote value for immediate help.  Like with Santiago or Kinsler or Syndergaard or Heaney or Goodwin and others for fringy borderline roster guys.  Or not taking the opportunity to trade guys of even some value when you know the team sucks.  

Imagine if they had exchanged those guys for lower level prospects over the years.  

What I like about Minasian's approach is he spreads the risk around with reasonable deals.  For example - neither Loup nor Tepera fared too well last year, but a 2/15 contract is not going to break the financial back of your team, nor is the contract Drury just got.  A lot of free agency signings don't pan out well - it is just the nature of the game.  You hope some do pan out, but you also buffer those failures with a strong farm system and young players who can be optioned if they aren't performing.

But all that said, I am again a fan of the general approach.  Acquiring guys with 1 year left (i.e. motivated to do well entering free agency), or guys on modest deals (2 year deals), seems to be a solid strategy.  Anderson's deal is 3 years, but he has immediately become a deal in the same offseason based on all the contracts that other starters have signed.  The biggest deal was Iglesias, who didn't perform quite as well as his first year, and then he immediately shipped him off.

I'm a fan of what Minasian has done.  It hasn't been perfect, but I'd like to see him at least complete his contract (through next year) to see what shape the franchise is in.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

18 hours ago, Lazorko Saves said:

It's a good move if there's a surprise rule change coming that allows 11 man batting lineups.

I wish only the top 5 of our lineup got to bat.

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

You don't like Ward. We get it. But next season when he hits .297 / .377 / .525 with 35 HR you can't say you like him.

Plus, we have no OF to take his spot, and don't say Rengifo. 

He is still under club control, arbitration first year. 

We don't need a SP.

 

I love Ward all I was asking Jeff, if Ward could bring back a pitcher. Seeing what his value is. I want Angels to keep all players they have. Drury has played corner OF again I love Ward and Rengifo.

[mmc]

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

15 hours ago, Deek said:

Holy cow Maddon…!!! I guess the game is played on a stat sheet - you win…. 
 

I like Ward… but his season last year reminded me of GA…. ie: who cares if you hit a 2-run bomb when your team is up or down 6 runs…???

 

What I saw with my eyes with Rengifo was how often he was in the middle of everything - moving runners, advancing 1st to 3rd, clutch hits in meaningful games/situations…

 

I get it - mine is an impression vs your “RE24” (???)

 

I appreciate stats as a tool… but not as a crutch that ignores context…

And what wrong with being a GA type?

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

 

I'm excited to go to the press conference.

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, mmc said:

 

Yankees have the Judge but Angels have the Drury

[Angels 1961]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Ok, so I inflated that a bit. But Angels 1861 is a moron. 

Fangraphs has him playing 141 games in the three OF spots, mostly LF, hitting .260 with a .345 OBP a .443 SLG and a .788 OPS with 28 2B and 22 HR.

Steamer is the exact same but more AB's (in the same number of games?) 29 Doubles and 23 HR. 

They have his BABIP dropping from .325 though to .301.

I think those are a bit conservative, based on what he showed. He had three really really good months last year and three bad ones. I don't think that continues. He will have good months and bad, but the numbers in the good months were much closer to his post catching stats in the minors. In 2018 he hit .349 / .446 / .531 / .977 OPS in the minors. 2019 it was .306 / .427 / .584. 

In his three good months last year he hit .346 / .430 / .632 / 1.062 OPS.

He won't stay that hot all season, but I don't think he'll slump as bad.

So maybe if he stays healthy and stays productive, maybe the .297 / .377 / .525 production is doable.

 

What about Rengifo's numbers?