Two basic near-certainties that frame the future

[Angelsjunky]

1. The Angels aren't crawling out of the pit they've dug themselves in. They're 10.5 games behind the third wildcard spot. As I said in another thread, the third wildcard team, the Toronto Blue Jays, are 50-43, which is an 87-75 pace. If we assume that at least one of the contending team gets hot and finishes 90-72, that means the Angels need to go 51-19 to finish out the year. I'm not even sure that's ever been done before in any 70-game span, or if it has, it is very rare and only done by teams that are stocked and loaded. The Angels aren't. So what this means is that the Angels are sellers and looking to next year.
2. They Angels plan on contending next year. I mean, three players alone determine this: Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. You don't rebuild when you're playing two players $75.7M -- more than five teams' entire payrolls this year. Add in that they hope to extend Ohtani, which would be three players making at least $100M next year, and more after that. They want to keep Ohtani, who is not only on pace to lead the majors in WAR for the second year in a row, but the biggest draw in major league baseball. Furthermore, Trout may be at the beginnings of decline, and Rendon is clearly no longer in his prime, so their best production value is over the next few years rather than in 2026 and beyond, after a hypothetical rebuild would start bearing fruit.

 

The One (Very Unlikely) Rebuild Scenario

Some team make the Angels an unbelievable offer for Ohtani that they cannot refuse. I don't think this will happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. There aren't many teams that could or are willing to do this, but it would require--at least--several top prospects and/or young players, and probably a couple decent prospects as well. Not many teams both have and are willing to trade three guys of 55 FV or higher (and really, you'd want one or two to be 60+ FV). Anyhow, if this happened, it is still no guarantee that the Angels would completely rebuild, if only because of Trout and Rendon. 

What This Means for the Second Half

So going back to the two points above, I would suggest that any conversation about their plans keeps those in mind. For the first, this isn't the typical Angels season where they're hovering within a few games of .500 and with the right moves, hopefully could catch fire and sneak out a playoff berth (and when that has been the situation, when have they ever caught fire in the second half to ride into the playoffs?).

This means two things for the major league club:

1. They need to shed as many spare parts as possible, and alchemically transform them into future value. Unfortunately they don't have any clear winners in this regard, although Noah Syndergaard could bring back something of value. And it is possible that a contending team wanting to bolster their bullpen would risk a decent prospect for Loup or Tepera. Or maybe the Angels find someone interested in Ward or Walsh enough to make it worthwhile. I also don't think it is impossible that the Angels surprise us all and trade David Fletcher, who despite his poor performance the last year and a half, is a useful player due to his flexibility and with a relatively cheap contract. 
2. The Angels need to treat the remaining 70 games as an audition for 2023. This means giving as much playing time to the young players - Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, and Stefanic, in particular. But also giving rotating auditions to minor league pitchers like Daniel, Bush, Murphy, Seminaris, Silseth, and hopefully eventually Canning, Bachman, and Chris Rodriguez (yeah, right). It also means not playing guys who don't figure into the future.

The latter is why I find the Phil Gosselin signing so baffling. He's the type of guy you bring on if you are at least on the fringe of contention, and want to plug a bench hole. What he shouldn't be is someone who takes playing time away from Rengifo or Stefanic. I'd put David Fletcher closer to Rengifo and Stefanic in this regard, in that you want to give him playing time to see if the "real" Fletcher is the 2018-20 version or the 2021-22 version. Hopefully they signed Gosselin because they plan on keeping Stefanic up, and need the playing time in AAA. But...

The reason the auditioning is so important is that it helps guide the Angels' moves during the offseason. For instance, they need to see if Marsh and Adell can take a step forward; if both continue as-is for the remainder of the year, they probably need to bring in at least another decent platoon outfielder. They need to see if Rengifo can continue to build on his recent improvement, and if Stefanic can quickly transition his bat to the majors and play a decent enough second base, and if Fletcher can return to being more than a scrub. Those factors will have a huge impact on what Minasian does in the offseason.

Anyhow, the point being, the above outlines what I think should be the Angels (and our) mindset for the remainder of the year. This is how we should be judging what the team does and how they perform - *not* on how many games they win. If instead the Angels are focused on getting their record back to respectability over trying to make a few trades and playing the young guys, it means they're fucking up. I know, the guys want to win, they want to feel like they have a chance. But they also need to see if they can win games with the young guys.

It is on Perry Minasian to A) Fully accept the original first point (that they're out of the race); B) Do whatever it takes to improve the future value of the team, namely through trading as many of Syndergaard, Loup, Tepera, etc, as possible; and C) Convince the rest of the org--including Trout and Ohtani--that this is the best route towards serious contention as soon as possible, but that this means next year. 

 

[70runner]

Have you given any thought to applying for the GM position should it become available?

[Jason]

Perry knows that he has to produce a winning team and this year’s isn’t it. I’m certain he is already strategizing for 2023. If he isn’t then he doesn’t have his fingers on the pulse of this team and should be canned ASAP

[Angels 1961]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. The Angels aren't crawling out of the pit they've dug themselves in. They're 10.5 games behind the third wildcard spot. As I said in another thread, the third wildcard team, the Toronto Blue Jays, are 50-43, which is an 87-75 pace. If we assume that at least one of the contending team gets hot and finishes 90-72, that means the Angels need to go 51-19 to finish out the year. I'm not even sure that's ever been done before in any 70-game span, or if it has, it is very rare and only done by teams that are stocked and loaded. The Angels aren't. So what this means is that the Angels are sellers and looking to next year.
2. They Angels plan on contending next year. I mean, three players alone determine this: Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. You don't rebuild when you're playing two players $75.7M -- more than five teams' entire payrolls this year. Add in that they hope to extend Ohtani, which would be three players making at least $100M next year, and more after that. They want to keep Ohtani, who is not only on pace to lead the majors in WAR for the second year in a row, but the biggest draw in major league baseball. Furthermore, Trout may be at the beginnings of decline, and Rendon is clearly no longer in his prime, so their best production value is over the next few years rather than in 2026 and beyond, after a hypothetical rebuild would start bearing fruit.

 

The One (Very Unlikely) Rebuild Scenario

Some team make the Angels an unbelievable offer for Ohtani that they cannot refuse. I don't think this will happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. There aren't many teams that could or are willing to do this, but it would require--at least--several top prospects and/or young players, and probably a couple decent prospects as well. Not many teams both have and are willing to trade three guys of 55 FV or higher (and really, you'd want one or two to be 60+ FV). Anyhow, if this happened, it is still no guarantee that the Angels would completely rebuild, if only because of Trout and Rendon. 

What This Means for the Second Half

So going back to the two points above, I would suggest that any conversation about their plans keeps those in mind. For the first, this isn't the typical Angels season where they're hovering within a few games of .500 and with the right moves, hopefully could catch fire and sneak out a playoff berth (and when that has been the situation, when have they ever caught fire in the second half to ride into the playoffs?).

This means two things for the major league club:

1. They need to shed as many spare parts as possible, and alchemically transform them into future value. Unfortunately they don't have any clear winners in this regard, although Noah Syndergaard could bring back something of value. And it is possible that a contending team wanting to bolster their bullpen would risk a decent prospect for Loup or Tepera. Or maybe the Angels find someone interested in Ward or Walsh enough to make it worthwhile. I also don't think it is impossible that the Angels surprise us all and trade David Fletcher, who despite his poor performance the last year and a half, is a useful player due to his flexibility and with a relatively cheap contract. 
2. The Angels need to treat the remaining 70 games as an audition for 2023. This means giving as much playing time to the young players - Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, and Stefanic, in particular. But also giving rotating auditions to minor league pitchers like Daniel, Bush, Murphy, Seminaris, Silseth, and hopefully eventually Canning, Bachman, and Chris Rodriguez (yeah, right). It also means not playing guys who don't figure into the future.

The latter is why I find the Phil Gosselin signing so baffling. He's the type of guy you bring on if you are at least on the fringe of contention, and want to plug a bench hole. What he shouldn't be is someone who takes playing time away from Rengifo or Stefanic. I'd put David Fletcher closer to Rengifo and Stefanic in this regard, in that you want to give him playing time to see if the "real" Fletcher is the 2018-20 version or the 2021-22 version. Hopefully they signed Gosselin because they plan on keeping Stefanic up, and need the playing time in AAA. But...

The reason the auditioning is so important is that it helps guide the Angels' moves during the offseason. For instance, they need to see if Marsh and Adell can take a step forward; if both continue as-is for the remainder of the year, they probably need to bring in at least another decent platoon outfielder. They need to see if Rengifo can continue to build on his recent improvement, and if Stefanic can quickly transition his bat to the majors and play a decent enough second base, and if Fletcher can return to being more than a scrub. Those factors will have a huge impact on what Minasian does in the offseason.

Anyhow, the point being, the above outlines what I think should be the Angels (and our) mindset for the remainder of the year. This is how we should be judging what the team does and how they perform - *not* on how many games they win. If instead the Angels are focused on getting their record back to respectability over trying to make a few trades and playing the young guys, it means they're fucking up. I know, the guys want to win, they want to feel like they have a chance. But they also need to see if they can win games with the young guys.

It is on Perry Minasian to A) Fully accept the original first point (that they're out of the race); B) Do whatever it takes to improve the future value of the team, namely through trading as many of Syndergaard, Loup, Tepera, etc, as possible; and C) Convince the rest of the org--including Trout and Ohtani--that this is the best route towards serious contention as soon as possible, but that this means next year. 

 

Angels have planned on contending the last 7 years how has that worked out? Please let's go in a different direction tear this mess down.

[mmc]

Always enjoy reading your posts AJ and I don't mean this as an indictment towards you by any means, but none of your posts for the last year or two now have been able to convince me that anything short of a rebuild is going to get this team on a path to contention.  Just feels like we're making no progression out of the no-man's land we've been stuck in for years, and even if what's currently in the system eventually makes an impact on the major league team, I don't get the sense it happens before Trout starts to slow down and Ohtani potentially leave, which would off-set each other IMO.  

[UndertheHalo]

I’m pretty sure you produce more Angels content then any of the actual reporters that cover the Angels. 

[UndertheHalo]

The only thing the Angels can do in the near term (next year) to try and be winners is a Cohen style spending spree.  It’s not going to happen otherwise.  Sorry.  

[HaloBronco]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. The Angels aren't crawling out of the pit they've dug themselves in. They're 10.5 games behind the third wildcard spot. As I said in another thread, the third wildcard team, the Toronto Blue Jays, are 50-43, which is an 87-75 pace. If we assume that at least one of the contending team gets hot and finishes 90-72, that means the Angels need to go 51-19 to finish out the year. I'm not even sure that's ever been done before in any 70-game span, or if it has, it is very rare and only done by teams that are stocked and loaded. The Angels aren't. So what this means is that the Angels are sellers and looking to next year.
2. They Angels plan on contending next year. I mean, three players alone determine this: Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. You don't rebuild when you're playing two players $75.7M -- more than five teams' entire payrolls this year. Add in that they hope to extend Ohtani, which would be three players making at least $100M next year, and more after that. They want to keep Ohtani, who is not only on pace to lead the majors in WAR for the second year in a row, but the biggest draw in major league baseball. Furthermore, Trout may be at the beginnings of decline, and Rendon is clearly no longer in his prime, so their best production value is over the next few years rather than in 2026 and beyond, after a hypothetical rebuild would start bearing fruit.

 

The One (Very Unlikely) Rebuild Scenario

Some team make the Angels an unbelievable offer for Ohtani that they cannot refuse. I don't think this will happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. There aren't many teams that could or are willing to do this, but it would require--at least--several top prospects and/or young players, and probably a couple decent prospects as well. Not many teams both have and are willing to trade three guys of 55 FV or higher (and really, you'd want one or two to be 60+ FV). Anyhow, if this happened, it is still no guarantee that the Angels would completely rebuild, if only because of Trout and Rendon. 

What This Means for the Second Half

So going back to the two points above, I would suggest that any conversation about their plans keeps those in mind. For the first, this isn't the typical Angels season where they're hovering within a few games of .500 and with the right moves, hopefully could catch fire and sneak out a playoff berth (and when that has been the situation, when have they ever caught fire in the second half to ride into the playoffs?).

This means two things for the major league club:

1. They need to shed as many spare parts as possible, and alchemically transform them into future value. Unfortunately they don't have any clear winners in this regard, although Noah Syndergaard could bring back something of value. And it is possible that a contending team wanting to bolster their bullpen would risk a decent prospect for Loup or Tepera. Or maybe the Angels find someone interested in Ward or Walsh enough to make it worthwhile. I also don't think it is impossible that the Angels surprise us all and trade David Fletcher, who despite his poor performance the last year and a half, is a useful player due to his flexibility and with a relatively cheap contract. 
2. The Angels need to treat the remaining 70 games as an audition for 2023. This means giving as much playing time to the young players - Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, and Stefanic, in particular. But also giving rotating auditions to minor league pitchers like Daniel, Bush, Murphy, Seminaris, Silseth, and hopefully eventually Canning, Bachman, and Chris Rodriguez (yeah, right). It also means not playing guys who don't figure into the future.

The latter is why I find the Phil Gosselin signing so baffling. He's the type of guy you bring on if you are at least on the fringe of contention, and want to plug a bench hole. What he shouldn't be is someone who takes playing time away from Rengifo or Stefanic. I'd put David Fletcher closer to Rengifo and Stefanic in this regard, in that you want to give him playing time to see if the "real" Fletcher is the 2018-20 version or the 2021-22 version. Hopefully they signed Gosselin because they plan on keeping Stefanic up, and need the playing time in AAA. But...

The reason the auditioning is so important is that it helps guide the Angels' moves during the offseason. For instance, they need to see if Marsh and Adell can take a step forward; if both continue as-is for the remainder of the year, they probably need to bring in at least another decent platoon outfielder. They need to see if Rengifo can continue to build on his recent improvement, and if Stefanic can quickly transition his bat to the majors and play a decent enough second base, and if Fletcher can return to being more than a scrub. Those factors will have a huge impact on what Minasian does in the offseason.

Anyhow, the point being, the above outlines what I think should be the Angels (and our) mindset for the remainder of the year. This is how we should be judging what the team does and how they perform - *not* on how many games they win. If instead the Angels are focused on getting their record back to respectability over trying to make a few trades and playing the young guys, it means they're fucking up. I know, the guys want to win, they want to feel like they have a chance. But they also need to see if they can win games with the young guys.

It is on Perry Minasian to A) Fully accept the original first point (that they're out of the race); B) Do whatever it takes to improve the future value of the team, namely through trading as many of Syndergaard, Loup, Tepera, etc, as possible; and C) Convince the rest of the org--including Trout and Ohtani--that this is the best route towards serious contention as soon as possible, but that this means next year. 

 

Angels junky, thanks for yet another great and thoughtful breakdown! 

At this point I’d like to see what the young kids can do. We need to find out what we have. What is the real version of Fletcher, can Rengifo be the player some he thought could be. Can Adell and Marsh put it together, what is Stefanic able to do at this level, are any the young arms ready yet? 

LOL, I totally forgot about Canning, he’s been missing for so long. 
 

[HaloBronco]

6 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I’m pretty sure you produce more Angels content then any of the actual reporters that cover the Angels. 

LOL, this true! 

[Taylor]

29 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. The Angels aren't crawling out of the pit they've dug themselves in. They're 10.5 games behind the third wildcard spot. As I said in another thread, the third wildcard team, the Toronto Blue Jays, are 50-43, which is an 87-75 pace. If we assume that at least one of the contending team gets hot and finishes 90-72, that means the Angels need to go 51-19 to finish out the year. I'm not even sure that's ever been done before in any 70-game span, or if it has, it is very rare and only done by teams that are stocked and loaded. The Angels aren't. So what this means is that the Angels are sellers and looking to next year.
2. They Angels plan on contending next year. I mean, three players alone determine this: Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. You don't rebuild when you're playing two players $75.7M -- more than five teams' entire payrolls this year. Add in that they hope to extend Ohtani, which would be three players making at least $100M next year, and more after that. They want to keep Ohtani, who is not only on pace to lead the majors in WAR for the second year in a row, but the biggest draw in major league baseball. Furthermore, Trout may be at the beginnings of decline, and Rendon is clearly no longer in his prime, so their best production value is over the next few years rather than in 2026 and beyond, after a hypothetical rebuild would start bearing fruit.

 

The One (Very Unlikely) Rebuild Scenario

Some team make the Angels an unbelievable offer for Ohtani that they cannot refuse. I don't think this will happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. There aren't many teams that could or are willing to do this, but it would require--at least--several top prospects and/or young players, and probably a couple decent prospects as well. Not many teams both have and are willing to trade three guys of 55 FV or higher (and really, you'd want one or two to be 60+ FV). Anyhow, if this happened, it is still no guarantee that the Angels would completely rebuild, if only because of Trout and Rendon. 

What This Means for the Second Half

So going back to the two points above, I would suggest that any conversation about their plans keeps those in mind. For the first, this isn't the typical Angels season where they're hovering within a few games of .500 and with the right moves, hopefully could catch fire and sneak out a playoff berth (and when that has been the situation, when have they ever caught fire in the second half to ride into the playoffs?).

This means two things for the major league club:

1. They need to shed as many spare parts as possible, and alchemically transform them into future value. Unfortunately they don't have any clear winners in this regard, although Noah Syndergaard could bring back something of value. And it is possible that a contending team wanting to bolster their bullpen would risk a decent prospect for Loup or Tepera. Or maybe the Angels find someone interested in Ward or Walsh enough to make it worthwhile. I also don't think it is impossible that the Angels surprise us all and trade David Fletcher, who despite his poor performance the last year and a half, is a useful player due to his flexibility and with a relatively cheap contract. 
2. The Angels need to treat the remaining 70 games as an audition for 2023. This means giving as much playing time to the young players - Adell, Marsh, Rengifo, and Stefanic, in particular. But also giving rotating auditions to minor league pitchers like Daniel, Bush, Murphy, Seminaris, Silseth, and hopefully eventually Canning, Bachman, and Chris Rodriguez (yeah, right). It also means not playing guys who don't figure into the future.

The latter is why I find the Phil Gosselin signing so baffling. He's the type of guy you bring on if you are at least on the fringe of contention, and want to plug a bench hole. What he shouldn't be is someone who takes playing time away from Rengifo or Stefanic. I'd put David Fletcher closer to Rengifo and Stefanic in this regard, in that you want to give him playing time to see if the "real" Fletcher is the 2018-20 version or the 2021-22 version. Hopefully they signed Gosselin because they plan on keeping Stefanic up, and need the playing time in AAA. But...

The reason the auditioning is so important is that it helps guide the Angels' moves during the offseason. For instance, they need to see if Marsh and Adell can take a step forward; if both continue as-is for the remainder of the year, they probably need to bring in at least another decent platoon outfielder. They need to see if Rengifo can continue to build on his recent improvement, and if Stefanic can quickly transition his bat to the majors and play a decent enough second base, and if Fletcher can return to being more than a scrub. Those factors will have a huge impact on what Minasian does in the offseason.

Anyhow, the point being, the above outlines what I think should be the Angels (and our) mindset for the remainder of the year. This is how we should be judging what the team does and how they perform - *not* on how many games they win. If instead the Angels are focused on getting their record back to respectability over trying to make a few trades and playing the young guys, it means they're fucking up. I know, the guys want to win, they want to feel like they have a chance. But they also need to see if they can win games with the young guys.

It is on Perry Minasian to A) Fully accept the original first point (that they're out of the race); B) Do whatever it takes to improve the future value of the team, namely through trading as many of Syndergaard, Loup, Tepera, etc, as possible; and C) Convince the rest of the org--including Trout and Ohtani--that this is the best route towards serious contention as soon as possible, but that this means next year. 

 

Great post. If recent history is any indication, the Angels will play the rest of the season like they're still somehow contending and make more baffling and counterproductive decisions regarding who gets playing time and who doesn't.

[eligrba]

Another great job @Angelsjunky

 

Always enjoy reading your stuff.

[ten ocho recon scout]

28 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

The only thing the Angels can do in the near term (next year) to try and be winners is a Cohen style spending spree.  It’s not going to happen otherwise.  Sorry.  

And the problem with that is that it's easier said than done.

Arte could say screw it, money is no object.

That doesn't mean there's anything we need that we can buy, or that anyone will want to sign here.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, mmc said:

Always enjoy reading your posts AJ and I don't mean this as an indictment towards you by any means, but none of your posts for the last year or two now have been able to convince me that anything short of a rebuild is going to get this team on a path to contention.  Just feels like we're making no progression out of the no-man's land we've been stuck in for years, and even if what's currently in the system eventually makes an impact on the major league team, I don't get the sense it happens before Trout starts to slow down and Ohtani potentially leave, which would off-set each other IMO.  

I feel your pain, but what truly are the options for this "rebuild?" Meaning, how would it be different than what I outlined above?

Really it only comes down to one thing: trading Ohtani. Everyone else is either too expensive (Rendon, and probably Trout), has little to no trade value, or young enough to be part of whatever you want to rebuild towards.

Who else can they trade? I already mentioned Syndergaard, Loup, and Tepera - those guys should be traded (if possible), regardless of whether they are in rebuilding mode or not. I even mentioned Fletcher, Ward and Walsh. Who else has any trade value? Stassi, maybe? Raisel? Sure, but I think it still depends upon what is offered in return. His underlying numbers suggest he'll still be valuable going forward.

The bulk of the roster has at least three years beyond 2022 of club-control; or consider when the bulk of players reach free agency:

2026 (3 years): Canning, Rengifo

2027 (4 years): Sandoval, Suarez, Adell, Ward

2028 (5 years): Marsh, C Rodriguez, Detmers

2029+ (6+ years): Silseth, Stefanic, MacKinnon, everyone in the minors

The point being, the only real difference between what I'm saying and the kind of rebuild you're after is trading Ohtani. As I said, I think that only happens if someone makes Minasian an incredible offer; otherwise they'll re-assess next July, and only trade him if two things are true: 1) They're clearly out of contention, and 2) Shohei's made it clear that he wants to play elsewhere.

In a way, the rebuild is already happening: it is just a slow process of more and more homegrown players coming up. I don't know what else they can do, aside from trading Ohtani.

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[joeybaseball]

I'd like thinking that Arty has the same kind of reasoning and philosophy that all of us fans do. So many here make perfect sense with the correct logical solutions how to get out of this merry-go-round of mediocrity. But Arty has proven over the years that his mindset isn't anywhere near the logic of us fans. Our mindset is to come up with solutions how to turn the Angels into a successful organization. No, his mindset is, "how do I make the most money again this year?" The 2 mindsets rarely criss-cross or come in contact with each other, except by mistake.

Who here really believes he thinks something different?

Seriously! I'm baffled why no one answers that, or believes he feels different. As long as he has a splash or 2 in the can, has Ohtani and/or Trout bringing in the fans, why should he change his values? Its obviously not for us.

We have 2 different philosophies trying to determine how to proceed.

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by joeybaseball
Spelling check

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

The only thing the Angels can do in the near term (next year) to try and be winners is a Cohen style spending spree.  It’s not going to happen otherwise.  Sorry.  

This is probably true, but I don't think it has to be absurd - but probably more than what Arte has budgeted.

They need depth - which means a good platoon catcher, a quality starting infielder, and at least a couple platoon/bench guys who can slot in and not suck.

They also need a better bullpen and more starting pitching. But that's par for the course for most teams every year. The rotation has been OK, just a bit soft on the back-end (gross). But this is also where auditioning is huge. They need 1-2 of the following guys to be rotation read for next year: Silseth, Canning, C Rod, Bachman, Bush, Daniel, Junk, Crow, Erla, Seminaris, etc; and several more to be solid depth options. That means 1-2 free agents or trades.

As for the bullpen, it is almost exhausting thinking about. But I think we've seen how whether you spend small (2021) or big (2022), bullpens are hard to assemble, and the key is minor league pitching depth - and the Angels finally have some.So again, auditioning. We need to see Luke Murphy. Jose Suarez should be converted back to the pen, where he seems to do better. Some of those AA starters, plus Daniel and Junk. I still think Pina could be a good reliever. Meaning, if they don't trade Raisel and can't trade Loup and Tepera, I think they go into next year as-is, but use the minor leagues to flesh out the bullpen.

[mmc]

13 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I feel your pain, but what truly are the options for this "rebuild?" Meaning, how would it be different than what I outlined above?

Really it only comes down to one thing: trading Ohtani. Everyone else is either too expensive (Rendon, and probably Trout), has little to no trade value, or young enough to be part of whatever you want to rebuild towards.

Who else can they trade? I already mentioned Syndergaard, Loup, and Tepera - those guys should be traded (if possible), regardless of whether they are in rebuilding mode or not. I even mentioned Fletcher, Ward and Walsh. Who else has any trade value? Stassi, maybe? Raisel? Sure, but I think it still depends upon what is offered in return. His underlying numbers suggest he'll still be valuable going forward.

The bulk of the roster has at least three years beyond 2022 of club-control; or consider when the bulk of players reach free agency:

2026 (3 years): Canning, Rengifo

2027 (4 years): Sandoval, Suarez, Adell, Ward

2028 (5 years): Marsh, C Rodriguez, Detmers

2029+ (6+ years): Silseth, Stefanic, MacKinnon, everyone in the minors

The point being, the only real difference between what I'm saying and the kind of rebuild you're after is trading Ohtani. As I said, I think that only happens if someone makes Minasian an incredible offer; otherwise they'll re-assess next July, and only trade him if two things are true: 1) They're clearly out of contention, and 2) Shohei's made it clear that he wants to play elsewhere.

In a way, the rebuild is already happening: it is just a slow process of more and more homegrown players coming up. I don't know what else they can do, aside from trading Ohtani.

 

I guess my point is moreso that you often mention players organizationally (Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, etc) as potentially being able to seriously move the team forward, and be the difference in our floor being where we're at now to a team above .500, and I just disagree that as it stands we have both talent to make that happen, or, alternatively, the available money available to bring in external improvements.  The only path forward to me is to start over.

[Angel Oracle]

Something underrated is the lack of solid managing/coaching, going back to when Scioscia stepped down almost 4 years back.

Seems that they have been rudderless in the dugout since then? 

[Angelsjunky]

21 minutes ago, mmc said:

I guess my point is moreso that you often mention players organizationally (Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, etc) as potentially being able to seriously move the team forward, and be the difference in our floor being where we're at now to a team above .500, and I just disagree that as it stands we have both talent to make that happen, or, alternatively, the available money available to bring in external improvements.  The only path forward to me is to start over.

OK, but "starting over" is an abstract idea. How do you think they should do that?

[BTH]

The biggest thing the Angels need post-ASB is bounce-backs and breakouts from their young players.

They can’t go into the offseason and 2023 with all of the following players as question marks or uncertainties:

- Max Stassi

- Jared Walsh

- Luis Rengifo

- David Fletcher

- Jo Adell

- Brandon Marsh

- Taylor Ward

- Reid Detmers

- Aaron Loup

- José Suarez

- Ryan Tepera

- The young SP’s like Daniel, Diaz, Junk, Rosenberg, Silseth

- The young RP’s like Marte, Ortega, Peguero, Wantz, and Warren

 

We know they already have questions/uncertainties with Canning, Rodriguez, and Rendon.

[Dtwncbad]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Angels have planned on contending the last 7 years how has that worked out? Please let's go in a different direction tear this mess down.

They have been quietly “rebuilding” for a few years now.  You just refuse to see it.

[Dtwncbad]

If the Angels didn’t have Trout and Ohtani, they would be really terrible.

But at least then some people would be able to see that the team has been trying to develop a roster of cost-controlled players, including a bunch of home grown players that are maturing.  Basically rebuilding.

Walsh, Fletcher, Ward, Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, Sandoval, Canning, Detmers, Bachman, Rodriguez, etc etc.

The Angels have a decent chance of a very high percentage of these 11 that I listed being better next year than they are this year.

Now throw in another possible 25 WAR with three players in Ohtani, Trout and Rendon. . . and you could imagine being excited about next year.

When you have the 11 that I listed (probably even missed some names), and some bigger stars. . . It is far more rational to open up the wallet and add a couple of additional high end players to boost the team into legitimate contention.

No, you do not “blow it up.”

Whether anybody likes it or not, and whether anyone is out of patience or not, the existence of this core of cost-controlled player IS the result of a rebuild effort and the team is in the part of the process where their eggs are in that basket.  They are going to assess what that core needs for next year and try to add to this core.

Yes they could trade someone from that core group or trade some other prospects.  But it is going to be for an impact player they can control next year that they view will help them compete next year.

There isn’t going to be some beginning of a rebuild right now!  If I end up wrong I will eat crow on it for sure.  But it sure seems obvious to me that they are going to ride this (already rebuilt) group of cost-controlled players out.  And I think they should.

Its the most logical path with the fewest moves and it is quite defendable when it comes to the urgency to try to win ASAP with a couple of legends in Angel uniforms.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

If the Angels didn’t have Trout and Ohtani, they would be really terrible.

But at least then some people would be able to see that the team has been trying to develop a roster of cost-controlled players, including a bunch of home grown players that are maturing.  Basically rebuilding.

Walsh, Fletcher, Ward, Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, Sandoval, Canning, Detmers, Bachman, Rodriguez, etc etc.

The Angels have a decent chance of a very high percentage of these 11 that I listed being better next year than they are this year.

Now throw in another possible 25 WAR with three players in Ohtani, Trout and Rendon. . . and you could imagine being excited about next year.

When you have the 11 that I listed (probably even missed some names), and some bigger stars. . . It is far more rational to open up the wallet and add a couple of additional high end players to boost the team into legitimate contention.

No, you do not “blow it up.”

Whether anybody likes it or not, and whether anyone is out of patience or not, the existence of this core of cost-controlled player IS the result of a rebuild effort and the team is in the part of the process where their eggs are in that basket.  They are going to assess what that core needs for next year and try to add to this core.

Yes they could trade someone from that core group or trade some other prospects.  But it is going to be for an impact player they can control next year that they view will help them compete next year.

There isn’t going to be some beginning of a rebuild right now!  If I end up wrong I will eat crow on it for sure.  But it sure seems obvious to me that they are going to ride this (already rebuilt) group of cost-controlled players out.  And I think they should.

Its the most logical path with the fewest moves and it is quite defendable when it comes to the urgency to try to win ASAP with a couple of legends in Angel uniforms.

Yes, agreed - and good point about the "quiet rebuild."

To be fair to those who are frustrated, what you wrote is similar to what I wrote before this year - that the had team of three superstars around which were a talented cast of secondary and younger players. But pretty much everything wasn't what we (I) hoped for:

Secondary players: Fletcher continued to suck, then got injured; Walsh and Stassi regressed; Ward looked like the breakout player of the year, but got injured and hasn't been the same. Oh, also: Suarez also regressed.

Young guys: Marsh and Adell have been busts so far. It ain't over, but that's what their actual production has been. Detmers has been solid. Canning and C Rod have been out all year, and Sam "Ready for the majors" Bachman has managed all of 13.2 IP.

And then we get into the depth problem, and circle back around to that core issue. 

So the disappointing and tragic part is that the youth movement rebuild hasn't worked out - pretty much in any way. It doesn't mean it won't, but Marsh and Adell, in particular, have been really disappointing. A couple years ago they were 60 FV prospects - both top ten at various points, at least according to Fangraphs, and Adell even top 5 and a 65 FV grade at one point. While I think both can still become good players, they're probably more like the equivalent of 50 FV prospects.

[Dtwncbad]

25 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, agreed - and good point about the "quiet rebuild."

To be fair to those who are frustrated, what you wrote is similar to what I wrote before this year - that the had team of three superstars around which were a talented cast of secondary and younger players. But pretty much everything wasn't what we (I) hoped for:

Secondary players: Fletcher continued to suck, then got injured; Walsh and Stassi regressed; Ward looked like the breakout player of the year, but got injured and hasn't been the same. Oh, also: Suarez also regressed.

Young guys: Marsh and Adell have been busts so far. It ain't over, but that's what their actual production has been. Detmers has been solid. Canning and C Rod have been out all year, and Sam "Ready for the majors" Bachman has managed all of 13.2 IP.

And then we get into the depth problem, and circle back around to that core issue. 

So the disappointing and tragic part is that the youth movement rebuild hasn't worked out - pretty much in any way. It doesn't mean it won't, but Marsh and Adell, in particular, have been really disappointing. A couple years ago they were 60 FV prospects - both top ten at various points, at least according to Fangraphs, and Adell even top 5 and a 65 FV grade at one point. While I think both can still become good players, they're probably more like the equivalent of 50 FV prospects.

Yup.  Most of my frustration is just that I had expected lots of progress this year with many of those players, and too few moved forward or forward enough.  That’s really what it amounts to.

The good news is it isn’t over for this group.  They are still young enough.  The Angels statistically are considered a pretty young team when you look at average age.  And when a team retools, oddly (if it works) there is often one year when everything clicks.

And when it clicks for a few, it becomes a little contagious.

Next year it could happen.  Nobody can be certain that it will of course, but you kind of have to ride this out to see.

If the Angels go get one or two high end starters and a shortstop that can strongly contribute offensively, then they really will have a roster that can win.  Will it work?  We all just have to wait and see.

Oversimplifying, if you had a lottery ticket with two chances to win, and you didn’t win after scratching off the first half of the ticket, you don’t throw the ticket out and start over.  You scratch the other half of the ticket.

The Angels have too many young players they have already invested in that they still control for next year to give up on this group.

Only one team wins the WS every year and you are competing against lots of teams trying to do the same thing. . . So maybe this group ends up never being a contending team.  We will see.

But the story of this core group is not over yet.  We are probably in the sixth inning of it, but it ain’t over.

 

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yup.  Most of my frustration is just that I had expected lots of progress this year with many of those players, and too few moved forward or forward enough.  That’s really what it amounts to.

The good news is it isn’t over for this group.  They are still young enough.  The Anhelps statistically are considered a pretty young team when you look at average age.  And when a team retools, oddly (if it works) there is often one year when everything clicks.

And when it clicks for a few, it becomes a little contagious.

Next year it could happen.  Nobody can be certain that it will of course, but you kind of have to ride this out to see.

If the Angels go get one or two high end starters and a shortstop that can strongly contribute offensively, then they really will have a roster that can win.  Will it work?  We all just have to wait and see.

Oversimplifying, if you had a lottery ticket with two chances to win, and you didn’t win after scratching off the first half of the ticket, you don’t throw the ticket out and start over.  You scratch the other half of the ticket.

The Angels have too many young players they have already invested in that they still control for next year to give up on this group.

Only one team wins the WS every year and you are competing against lots of teams trying to do the same thing. . . So maybe this group ends up never being a contending team.  We will see.

But the story of this core group is not over yet.  We are probably in the sixth inning of it, but it ain’t over.

 

 

Yeah, the almost team-wide suckage has been disconcerting. 

As an aside, I wonder where the over/under point is with prospect rankings. Meaning, at what point--say, via FV--is there a 50-50 shot a player becomes an average regular or better?

I know it is more complex than that - both a range of outcomes between bust and star, and also different timeframes that players take to reach their potential. But still, I wonder what percentage of 60 FV prospects turn out to be good players (3+ WAR a season), and what percentage not, and what percent bust. Maybe @Inside Pitch can shed some light.

I know the probabilities with draft picks is rather ugly, but by the time gets to a 60 FV, which Fangraphs defines as a future all-star, I imagine the bust percentage is pretty low.

Jarred Kelenic is an OF prospect for the Mariners who is in a similar--or worse--situation than Adell and Marsh. Kelenic was also a 60 FV and a 6th overall pick, yet has hit .173/.256/.338 in 123 major league games...so quite a bit worse than Adell and Marsh. On the other hand, you have Juan Soto who maxed out as a prospect at 50 FV, then become arguably the game's best hitter - sort of the Albert Pujols of this generation, in terms of limited prospect cred to instant superstardom. Meaning, Soto was projected as an average regular and instantly became an 80 FV performer.

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, the almost team-wide suckage has been disconcerting. 

As an aside, I wonder where the over/under point is with prospect rankings. Meaning, at what point--say, via FV--is there a 50-50 shot a player becomes an average regular or better?

I know it is more complex than that - both a range of outcomes between bust and star, and also different timeframes that players take to reach their potential. But still, I wonder what percentage of 60 FV prospects turn out to be good players (3+ WAR a season), and what percentage not, and what percent bust. Maybe @Inside Pitch can shed some light.

I know the probabilities with draft picks is rather ugly, but by the time gets to a 60 FV, which Fangraphs defines as a future all-star, I imagine the bust percentage is pretty low.

Jarred Kelenic is an OF prospect for the Mariners who is in a similar--or worse--situation than Adell and Marsh. Kelenic was also a 60 FV and a 6th overall pick, yet has hit .173/.256/.338 in 123 major league games...so quite a bit worse than Adell and Marsh. On the other hand, you have Juan Soto who maxed out as a prospect at 50 FV, then become arguably the game's best hitter - sort of the Albert Pujols of this generation, in terms of limited prospect cred to instant superstardom. Meaning, Soto was projected as an average regular and instantly became an 80 FV performer.

And look at Ward.  To me this guy was a floating dead fish.  If he hadn’t been a first rounder they probably would have cut bait on him a long time ago.  He is now a decent player (although not really sure it’s for real).

But I bring him up because some that want to blow this team up name Ward as a player to keep and build around, yet want to throw in the towel and “start over” on the rest of a core of players that are 5-6 years younger than Ward.

To me, it’s crazy.