Two basic near-certainties that frame the future

[angelsnationtalk]

It has been a "Lather, rinse, repeat" type thing for the Angels for years now. The depth is terrible and is severely exposed once someone gets injured. 

The problem is the Angels are stuck in a weird spot. They'll have stupid money tied up to Trout, Ohtani and Rendon. If they trade Ohtani then they'll get top prospects, but that doesn't immediately help the active roster get Trout to the playoffs. 

The Angels have one of two options. Which of course they'll never do. 
1: Blow payroll out of proportion to get the players you need to win. Once you win, fire sale. 
2: Trade Ohtani to jumpstart rebuild and find a way to dump Rendon's contract to reset payroll. 

I'm sure Trout won't like option #2

[mmc]

52 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

If the Angels didn’t have Trout and Ohtani, they would be really terrible.

But at least then some people would be able to see that the team has been trying to develop a roster of cost-controlled players, including a bunch of home grown players that are maturing.  Basically rebuilding.

Is every team in the league not trying to do this?

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, mmc said:

Is every team in the league not trying to do this?

What is your point?  The point I was making is the Angels have already been doing what the “time to rebuild now” folks are asking to be done now.

 

[floplag]

Ill believe this team intends to contend, when ownership makes the moves to prove it... till then, nope, not buying into that one again. 
Weve been saying this for years now, and we end up with egg on the face.
At this point i believe only that Arte will do what it takes to keep the revenue flowing, and nothing more. 

[Angels 1961]

6 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

They have been quietly “rebuilding” for a few years now.  You just refuse to see it.

Show me rebuild

[Angels 1961]

4 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

What is your point?  The point I was making is the Angels have already been doing what the “time to rebuild now” folks are asking to be done now.

 

Show me rebuild

[Angels 1961]

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

If the Angels didn’t have Trout and Ohtani, they would be really terrible.

But at least then some people would be able to see that the team has been trying to develop a roster of cost-controlled players, including a bunch of home grown players that are maturing.  Basically rebuilding.

Walsh, Fletcher, Ward, Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, Sandoval, Canning, Detmers, Bachman, Rodriguez, etc etc.

The Angels have a decent chance of a very high percentage of these 11 that I listed being better next year than they are this year.

Now throw in another possible 25 WAR with three players in Ohtani, Trout and Rendon. . . and you could imagine being excited about next year.

When you have the 11 that I listed (probably even missed some names), and some bigger stars. . . It is far more rational to open up the wallet and add a couple of additional high end players to boost the team into legitimate contention.

No, you do not “blow it up.”

Whether anybody likes it or not, and whether anyone is out of patience or not, the existence of this core of cost-controlled player IS the result of a rebuild effort and the team is in the part of the process where their eggs are in that basket.  They are going to assess what that core needs for next year and try to add to this core.

Yes they could trade someone from that core group or trade some other prospects.  But it is going to be for an impact player they can control next year that they view will help them compete next year.

There isn’t going to be some beginning of a rebuild right now!  If I end up wrong I will eat crow on it for sure.  But it sure seems obvious to me that they are going to ride this (already rebuilt) group of cost-controlled players out.  And I think they should.

Its the most logical path with the fewest moves and it is quite defendable when it comes to the urgency to try to win ASAP with a couple of legends in Angel uniforms.

Quit drinking the Minasian kool-aid

[wopphil]

9 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

And the problem with that is that it's easier said than done.

Arte could say screw it, money is no object.

That doesn't mean there's anything we need that we can buy, or that anyone will want to sign here.

This, and it would probably take a $400 mil payroll to make this team decent. We literally need two outfielders (Ward has a sub .600 OPS the last two months), a first baseman, a second baseman, a shortstop, three or four starting pitchers, and an entire bullpen (possibly sans a closer). 

[Jeff Fletcher]

10 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

They have been quietly “rebuilding” for a few years now.  You just refuse to see it.

Exactly.

When was the last time the Angels traded away a prospect or young major leaguer that looked promising at all?

If you don’t count Will Wilson (who they essentially sold to get Rendon), it was Sean Newcomb.

That’s because Eppler and Minasian have both acknowledged that they need to build from within and basically horde all the young players they can. 
 

The philosophy is right. The execution is wrong.
 

The guys they’ve drafted have not been good enough, which is a failure of scouting and development. 
 

Marsh, Adell, Adams, Jackson, Paris, Thaiss, Canning, etc. Those guys are supposed to either be helping the big league team or be good enough to be used in trades to help the big league team. But they’re not. It’s been a big nothing burger. 

[ScottT]

That is the problem.  They need to draft develop more of their own talent. 

Jo Adell was basically ranked as high as Julio Rodriguez at one point.  

Brandon Marsh was up there.  

Etc.

I'm not writing them off, but they haven't hit on anyone in a while.    The Sandoval trade was amazing, but other than that....  yikes.    So, when Stassi takes a dive, Rendon is out, Fletcher forgets what made him successful (and is out)....   it's rough.     A lineup with Velazquez, Duffy, and Wade?   

And the bullpen.  They haven't even developed their own good reliever in a while.  What other teams can claim that?

[ScottT]

I know relief pitching is volatile, but when is the last time the Angels brought a young reliever up and he had more than one good season?  Half season?   

[Docwaukee]

23 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The philosophy is right. The execution is wrong.

Maybe.  Kinda.  I guess.  Sort of.  

I think you can say that's correct if you can also say it wasn't the philosophy until Eppler got here.  

Jerry D didn't embrace that in any way shape or form even though he did immediately when he went to Seattle.  But it was beg, borrow and steal from every last resource he could to improve the major league club.  He even drafted for need.  Which is just a mortal sin in baseball.  But it was high floor college guys who would potentially be quick to the majors and start contributing.  He didn't know Trout was a generational player when he signed Albert or Wilson or traded for Greinke.  So he didn't get to use that excuse.  At the time it was just at all costs.   Maybe by the time he signed Hamilton he had the sense that this team needed to do everything they could on behalf of having Trout and Pujols.  And really the beginning of the end for the farm system.  

Then something catastrophic happened - they won 98 games in 2014.  This gave everyone the sense that what he was doing was actually working.  They had a few young pitchers although Weave was declining rapidly.  And then Jerry quit and maybe, just maybe they started to realize something wasn't right.  

Actually they didn't.  With a bloated payroll, he traded is only minor league asset for a SS.  Traded for a 3bman.  And then mid season when the team was out of it, traded his only asset for Nolasco and Alex Meyer because that's what you do when all you care about is the major league club.  So now we have the worst farm EVER.  Ever.  Seriously.  And still zero financial resources.  

Then Billy is forced to toe the line once he realizes that this org is circling the drain yet has a generational player that you've got to do something around.  Right?  So we then start to replace the Giavotella's and Ortegas and all the injuries to the pitchers with guys like Chacin, Lincecum, Espinosa, Revere, Maybin, Luis Valbuena, Upton, Kinsler, Cozart, Goodwin, Lucroy, Bour, Harvey, Cahill, La Stella, and Bundy, and others.  

And a magical angel from Japanese heaven is sent to the team to make everything better.  Which makes them want to double and triple and quadruple down on making more bad decisions.  

All the while trying to draft well and scrap a few trades together but remember.  All resources must improve the major league team.  

And then they get a little money to spend finally and with 9 kagillion roster spots unsettled, they spend a shit to on a 3bman and then sign Teheran 

So since that guy couldn't walk a tight rope...blindfolded...over a pit of sharks...on fire, they bring in some other sap to try and walk that rope but they add another guy off to the side who's throwing dogshit at him and spraying him with bong water.  And this new sap thinks that the special shoes he paid 60 million dollars for will help him but he's 'a little heavy buddy' (reference please) and the rope just sags into the pool of sharks where he get's one of his legs bitten.  So now he's hopping on one leg.  

TLDR:

The philosophy of 'building from within' may be something they say, but the execution is still to put every last resource into the major league club.  And I get the reasons, but at some point, someone is going to have to realize that what they are trying to do is impossible.  Because they've tried to execute various versions of this plan for over a decade.  Some of the nuances have changed, but it remains the same.  And functionally, nothing has really changed.  

Now, no one has a time machine so you've got to do something to try and salvage a roster that actually has some salvageability.  It's probably 8 or 10 chess moves away but I can squint and see it.  Oh wait.  Maybe that's just my allergies acting up again.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I think you can say that's correct if you can also say it wasn't the philosophy until Eppler got here.  

Agree. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Jeff Fletcher

[Angels 1961]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Agree. 

So where does this team go from here? 2023 and beyond look bleak.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Angels 1961 said:

So where does this team go from here? 2023 and beyond look bleak.

They’ll continue to rebuild.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

11 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

So where does this team go from here? 2023 and beyond look bleak.

Well this was the first year with a new scouting director and he just took 18 college kids, so if he’s right about a lot of those guys, their farm system could take a leap. And a handful of last year’s guys look good. Maybe Bachman and Bush are helpful next year. 
 

They need to keep trying different things to unlock the talent of their young/inexperienced players who have shown promise but been inconsistent (Adell, Marsh, Detmers, Suarez, Walsh).

They need to do a better job with the band aid signings. Although it hasn’t worked, it can. Look at the Giants last year. 
 

They need to hope Rendon can stay healthy and be productive because they’re stuck with him. 
 

They need the relievers they spent all that money to simply pitch to their career averages. 
 

All of that would help in the short term while waiting for improved drafting and development to help in the long term. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Jeff Fletcher

[Angels 1961]

While rebuilding farm system I agree with but will take time. In short term 2023 Ohtani here one more year or try and add to rebuild trade him. Same with Trout, what would be best for Angels long term?

[PattyD22]

7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

Maybe.  Kinda.  I guess.  Sort of.  

I think you can say that's correct if you can also say it wasn't the philosophy until Eppler got here.  

Jerry D didn't embrace that in any way shape or form even though he did immediately when he went to Seattle.  But it was beg, borrow and steal from every last resource he could to improve the major league club.  He even drafted for need.  Which is just a mortal sin in baseball.  But it was high floor college guys who would potentially be quick to the majors and start contributing.  He didn't know Trout was a generational player when he signed Albert or Wilson or traded for Greinke.  So he didn't get to use that excuse.  At the time it was just at all costs.   Maybe by the time he signed Hamilton he had the sense that this team needed to do everything they could on behalf of having Trout and Pujols.  And really the beginning of the end for the farm system.  

Then something catastrophic happened - they won 98 games in 2014.  This gave everyone the sense that what he was doing was actually working.  They had a few young pitchers although Weave was declining rapidly.  And then Jerry quit and maybe, just maybe they started to realize something wasn't right.  

Actually they didn't.  With a bloated payroll, he traded is only minor league asset for a SS.  Traded for a 3bman.  And then mid season when the team was out of it, traded his only asset for Nolasco and Alex Meyer because that's what you do when all you care about is the major league club.  So now we have the worst farm EVER.  Ever.  Seriously.  And still zero financial resources.  

Then Billy is forced to toe the line once he realizes that this org is circling the drain yet has a generational player that you've got to do something around.  Right?  So we then start to replace the Giavotella's and Ortegas and all the injuries to the pitchers with guys like Chacin, Lincecum, Espinosa, Revere, Maybin, Luis Valbuena, Upton, Kinsler, Cozart, Goodwin, Lucroy, Bour, Harvey, Cahill, La Stella, and Bundy, and others.  

And a magical angel from Japanese heaven is sent to the team to make everything better.  Which makes them want to double and triple and quadruple down on making more bad decisions.  

All the while trying to draft well and scrap a few trades together but remember.  All resources must improve the major league team.  

And then they get a little money to spend finally and with 9 kagillion roster spots unsettled, they spend a shit to on a 3bman and then sign Teheran 

So since that guy couldn't walk a tight rope...blindfolded...over a pit of sharks...on fire, they bring in some other sap to try and walk that rope but they add another guy off to the side who's throwing dogshit at him and spraying him with bong water.  And this new sap thinks that the special shoes he paid 60 million dollars for will help him but he's 'a little heavy buddy' (reference please) and the rope just sags into the pool of sharks where he get's one of his legs bitten.  So now he's hopping on one leg.  

TLDR:

The philosophy of 'building from within' may be something they say, but the execution is still to put every last resource into the major league club.  And I get the reasons, but at some point, someone is going to have to realize that what they are trying to do is impossible.  Because they've tried to execute various versions of this plan for over a decade.  Some of the nuances have changed, but it remains the same.  And functionally, nothing has really changed.  

Now, no one has a time machine so you've got to do something to try and salvage a roster that actually has some salvageability.  It's probably 8 or 10 chess moves away but I can squint and see it.  Oh wait.  Maybe that's just my allergies acting up again.  

This is some of your best work @Docwaukee.  
 

It was like reading Old Yeller.

[BTH]

21 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They need to keep trying different things to unlock the talent of their young/inexperienced players who have shown promise but been inconsistent (Adell, Marsh, Detmers, Suarez, Walsh).

this, 100%
 

so why do they keep rolling with the same coaching staff that has proven to be incapable of developing those players?

[Angelsjunky]

9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Marsh, Adell, Adams, Jackson, Paris, Thaiss, Canning, etc. Those guys are supposed to either be helping the big league team or be good enough to be used in trades to help the big league team. But they’re not. It’s been a big nothing burger. 

What I find concerning is how many of these guys have disappointed - it isn't a very good ratio. 

Let's take the three outfielders you mentioned. I still believe that Marsh and Adell will become good major leaguers, maybe even All-Star caliber players at some point. But it has gone from "probable stars" to "hopefully decent major leaguers" in just a couple years. The potential is there - we've seen it in bursts. But the fact that they showed up in the majors looking so raw, with huge gaps in their development, is concerning. And the fact that we see no signs of those gaps being addressed is also concerning.

I still think Adams could become a dynamic fourth outfielder/fringe starter. But he also has shown no development. Paris is too young to give up on, but he has had a disappointing year. Etc.

So I'm not sure where the problem is: Are the Angels drafting the wrong guys, or is it more a problem of the development within the system? Given the obvious talent of these guys, I'm thinking the latter, but it could also be some of the former: e.g. drafting a guy like Adams--with "sexy athleticism" but no baseball skills--in the first round. He looks like the type of guy you're willing to take a risk on as a 2nd or 3rd round pick, not a 1st rounder.

[Docwaukee]

I keep thinking that maybe they could buy their way out of this.  Not on a grand scale like in the form of big payday's on multi year deals but bumping payroll up for some 1 and 2 year deals and get more guys like Syndergaard instead of guys in that 2-10 mil range.  Theoretically, they'd have been paying an extra 10m on various individual players (each) to give the team a better chance to win but to also likely have a guy of greater value in trade at the deadline if things didn't go right.  

And there is something in there as to why the execution of this rebuild (which I agree it has been - just a slow, painful, and poorly constructed one) hasn't really worked.  

2 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They need to do a better job with the band aid signings. Although it hasn’t worked, it can. Look at the Giants last year. 

this popped up as I was posting and it lends to the above.  What have they been doing where it's just been so very awful?  And not just the signings, but some of the smaller trades as well.  

Part of it is that the roster has needed so much repair on a year to year lately with little in the way of the farm to provide any of that.  6 spots to fill from your top 14-18 guys on both sides of the ball each year plus hope that the remainder don't crap the bed.  Because you've got nothing after them.  

Eppler could have gotten away with my proposed approach but instead he tried to complete the roster and hope that he could get 5 undervalued guys to perform every year.  He was able to build the roster up to the point where there was some young guys with potential so then the next course should have been to build up around them and give them backup should they fail.  But Minasian did the complete opposite and left positions completely unattended or without even a remote semblance of a safety net.  

This year to year approach is just so ill conceived and I think where they've done a really piss poor job as an organization is evaluating who they are as an org at both the major and minor league levels.  They just haven't been honest with themselves internally and this is where I have a problem with Moreno and his leadership from the top down.  The opportunity to provide brutal honesty to him and legitimately tell him that hey, I know you want and expect to win.  And I know you support this team with a lot of money, but spending money on guys like Bour and Harvey and Teheran and Cahill and Maybin and Nolasco or trading for guys like Bundy is just flushing money down the toilet.  It's just not realistic that those types of moves are going to work.  Even Rendon.  I appreciate that he's willing to spend.  But they weren't a Rendon away from making the playoffs.  

Arte doesn't tell these guys who to sign for the most part (is my guess).  But what I think he does tell them in general is that he expects them to put together a roster that has a chance to win.  And other the last decade it's been a wash, rinse, repeat of these patchwork rosters and poorly spent money in order to try and piece together something that really you shouldn't be trying to piece together in that way.  

It's kinda like when the favorite toy gets broken.  And you spend hours trying to fix it.  You go buy glue and tape and jerry rig the shit out of it and maybe get it back to functional but it never really works right after that and you can sure as shit tell that it was and pretty much still is broken.   

[robblin17]

12 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What I find concerning is how many of these guys have disappointed - it isn't a very good ratio. 

Let's take the three outfielders you mentioned. I still believe that Marsh and Adell will become good major leaguers, maybe even All-Star caliber players at some point. But it has gone from "probable stars" to "hopefully decent major leaguers" in just a couple years. The potential is there - we've seen it in bursts. But the fact that they showed up in the majors looking so raw, with huge gaps in their development, is concerning. And the fact that we see no signs of those gaps being addressed is also concerning.

I still think Adams could become a dynamic fourth outfielder/fringe starter. But he also has shown no development. Paris is too young to give up on, but he has had a disappointing year. Etc.

So I'm not sure where the problem is: Are the Angels drafting the wrong guys, or is it more a problem of the development within the system? Given the obvious talent of these guys, I'm thinking the latter, but it could also be some of the former: e.g. drafting a guy like Adams--with "sexy athleticism" but no baseball skills--in the first round. He looks like the type of guy you're willing to take a risk on as a 2nd or 3rd round pick, not a 1st rounder.

Is it not clear that the Angels development programs rank towards the back half of the pack?

I can not say for certain, but this is what I gather from the small bits we get from the media. It always seems like the Angels are one of the teams trying to skimp on any sort of development. I’m not saying that twin size beds lead to terrible development, but where else are they cutting in terms of trying to get the best out of their players? They clearly are terrible at it. 

[fan_since79]

53 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They’ll continue to rebuild.  

The Five-Year or the Ten-Year Plan? That's the only question.

[Docwaukee]

14 minutes ago, Trendon said:

this, 100%
 

so why do they keep rolling with the same coaching staff that has proven to be incapable of developing those players?

because if there's anything that young players need it's consistency.  And at some point you have to trust that your process is good.  You also have to know when to blow it up.  But you do your best to put something in place based on all your research and experience and intelligence.  And you don't change it every year because that's even more of a problem.  There needs to be trust.  I'm all for trying new things, and tinkering is fine.  But don't throw a completely different approach at these guys every year.  

and do it right on the front end.  Don't try to go about it with half measures.  

@Lou will appreciate this.  

'If you don't have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?'

and it's not just about time.  Set up a process that give a greater chance to succeed but also put failsafe's in place to make appropriate adjustments without have to start all over if it doesn't work exactly how you anticipated.  

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Well this was the first year with a new scouting director and he just took 18 college kids, so if he’s right about a lot of those guys, their farm system could take a leap. And a handful of last year’s guys look good. Maybe Bachman and Bush are helpful next year. 
 

They need to keep trying different things to unlock the talent of their young/inexperienced players who have shown promise but been inconsistent (Adell, Marsh, Detmers, Suarez, Walsh).

They need to do a better job with the band aid signings. Although it hasn’t worked, it can. Look at the Giants last year. 
 

They need to hope Rendon can stay healthy and be productive because they’re stuck with him. 
 

They need the relievers they spent all that money to simply pitch to their career averages. 
 

All of that would help in the short term while waiting for improved drafting and development to help in the long term. 

That’s why Minasian is on the fence with me.   For two straight years, he has been mostly mediocre at off-season signings, just like Eppler was.

He better hire a manager/coaching staff that is competent and believes in the right balance between tradition and analytics.  They have never had a manager with that balance.

Maddon showed that he wasn’t the guy, especially thinking a Mohawk haircut would solve the issues.

How long are rebuilds of a farm supposed to take?

This is year 7.

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Angel Oracle