RedSox want to package Betts, Price trade

[kevinb]

Who's going to have the better career Betts or Adell?

[Vegas Halo Fan]

5 hours ago, Φαήλος said:

That eve chick is hot as hell

But dumb as a box of rocks.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

2 hours ago, ettin said:

Actually I do too.

It is an interesting thought process though because Mookie Betts is a 6-WAR player right now and Jo Adell may or may not struggle in the Majors and he is unlikely to approach that type of WAR as only a small handful of players do this each season, if at all.

Dochalo is right about one thing, that is a LOT of money if Betts signed an extension for the Angels to carry. We would be over the CBT threshold by a significant amount for the next two years and beyond really.

The prudent thing is to stay on the Adell path.

If they brought that kind of obligation in, it would be with two years remaining on the Pujols contract, and they are the two biggest years thanks to his backloaded deal ($29M this year and $30M for 2021). Add to that $32M per year for two years of David Price over the same span, and that would be $61-62M in sunk costs for each of the the next two seasons. That is a lot of money to eat. Then Price would still have another year at $32M left on his deal.

[ettin]

10 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

If they brought that kind of obligation in, it would be with two years remaining on the Pujols contract, and they are the two biggest years thanks to his backloaded deal ($29M this year and $30M for 2021). Add to that $32M per year for two years of David Price over the same span, and that would be $61-62M in sunk costs for each of the the next two seasons. That is a lot of money to eat. Then Price would still have another year at $32M left on his deal.

Agreed.

To be honest I thought there was a legitimate chance that Moreno would spend significantly on both Cole and Rendon because we can get back under the CBT threshold after 2021 when Pujols comes off the books. They were both certainly "right guys" and we did get one of them. It truly is a long shot but Betts is just a position player version of Cole, perhaps better so? Eppler was quoted as saying they could take on multiple large contracts so I don't think this is a fantasy but it is so difficult to pull off a trade like, it has so many complexities that can kill it before it even truly gets going. So many things have to culminate and go right which makes it a near-fantasy.

[Pancake Bear]

18 minutes ago, ettin said:

Agreed.

To be honest I thought there was a legitimate chance that Moreno would spend significantly on both Cole and Rendon because we can get back under the CBT threshold after 2021 when Pujols comes off the books. They were both certainly "right guys" and we did get one of them. It truly is a long shot but Betts is just a position player version of Cole, perhaps better so? Eppler was quoted as saying they could take on multiple large contracts so I don't think this is a fantasy but it is so difficult to pull off a trade like, it has so many complexities that can kill it before it even truly gets going. So many things have to culminate and go right which makes it a near-fantasy.

Trouble is that it isn't just Betts. It's Betts and Price. Price is a risky option also. He could be a solid 3 or even a low end 2. Or he could be a 4, or injured. But he costs a ton regardless. I think if we did that deal, I'd want to trade Upton as part of it, but I doubt that's workable, either from Boston's perspective or Upton's.

[ukyah]

10 hours ago, Stradling said:

So they’d rather shed money than obtain quality prospects. 

that's not how i read that at all. i think they want to shed the money and obtain quality prospects.

david price has no value prospectwise. betts has minimal value as a highly paid one year rental.

so they want you to pay all of price's contract and give them to frontline prospects for the ability to pay betts 27 million this year and offer him a QO.

that's a shit deal by anybody's standards. i wouldn't give two frontiline prospects for betts alone just this year.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, ukyah said:

that's not how i read that at all. i think they want to shed the money and obtain quality prospects.

david price has no value prospectwise. betts has minimal value as a highly paid one year rental.

so they want you to pay all of price's contract and give them to frontline prospects for the ability to pay betts 27 million this year and offer him a QO.

that's a shit deal by anybody's standards. i wouldn't give two frontiline prospects for betts alone just this year.

Right, I guess I was just cutting to the chase and pointing out the obvious.  You and I both know that Boston isn’t getting decent prospects, much less good to great prospects, for Price and Betts.  

[Stradling]

Hell I wouldn’t give up Marsh straight up for Betts when we know we can’t really afford Betts after this season.  

[Docwaukee]

Rendon got 7/245 for age 30 to 36.  His average fWAR for the last 6 years was 5.3 for age 24-29.  

Harper got 13/330 for age 26 to 38.  His average fWAR for the 6 years prior to his contract was 4.4 for age 21-25.  

Machado got 10/300 for age 26 to 35.  His average fWAR for the 6 years prior to his contract was 4.8 for age 21-25.  

Betts is entering his age 27yo season which means he'll be 28 when he hits free agency.  His last 5 years of fWAR avg is 7.1 for age 23-27.  

my guess is that he gets 10/360 if he has another 6-7 fWAR season in 2020.  

I have no interest in that for the Angels at this point.  Lets be generous and give him 7 WAR per season during the next 6 seasons for 42 WAR.  Lets also be a bit liberal and give Adell 4 WAR per year over the next 6 years or 24 WAR.   During that span, Betts costs 216m or 5m per WAR.  Adell will cost about 60m max during that time or about 2.5m per WAR.  More importantly, that's 156m to spend on other players during that 6 years and more importantly, Adell costs about 30m max during the first 5 years whereas Betts got 180 m during that time.  

Can Eppler and the Angels make up the 3 WAR delta between Betts and Adell by spending 30m per year over the next 5 years?  Imagine spending 20m per on three pitcher vs. 10m per on three pitchers. 

Now imagine you can't spend that because you took on David Price.  Now also imagine you gave up Marsh and Canning to get the deal done.   

[Lou]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Rendon got 7/245 for age 30 to 36.  His average fWAR for the last 6 years was 5.3 for age 24-29.  

Reading this board, I sometimes forget that we signed Rendon. 

[Blarg]

6 hours ago, ettin said:

So, for example, if Moreno authorizes a huge payroll surge and the Angels agreed to take on all of David Price's contract (approximately -$30M in a sunk "surplus" value) and Mookie Betts was packaged in the deal (he currently has about $35M-$50M in surplus value for his last remaining year of control) and Betts agreed to a 10-year, $350M extension contract, would you send Jo Adell back in return?

Absolutely no way the Angels would or should make such a stupid investment. Adell will cost them less than $35 million before he hits free agency in 6 years and will provide All Star value at the position. You are just throwing money away on a name (one involved cheating) instead of taking full advantage of the highest ranked organizational prospect since Trout.

[Blarg]

3 minutes ago, Lou said:

Reading this board, I sometimes forget that we signed Rendon. 

Then I remember and just smile. 

[failos]

2 hours ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

But dumb as a box of rocks.

Not surprising given how hot she is. I'm fine with that.

[ettin]

37 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Absolutely no way the Angels would or should make such a stupid investment. Adell will cost them less than $35 million before he hits free agency in 6 years and will provide All Star value at the position. You are just throwing money away on a name (one involved cheating) instead of taking full advantage of the highest ranked organizational prospect since Trout.

It was just a thought exercise Eric I wasn't advocating one way or the other. You do realize that there is no guarantee that Jo will perform to expectations in his first couple of seasons right? I mean I think he has a high floor to start but there should be no expectation that he will roar out of the gate, particularly since he still seems like he has a lot of swing and miss to his game. Nothing is promised by prospects. I am not fond of the idea in the first place as it is very complicated and, if it is a Price/Betts combo, Mookie would have to take an extension contract or it makes absolutely zero sense in any way shape or form. This does not even get into the subject of payroll which would bloat up above the 1st Surcharge threshold and would be close to the 2nd Surcharge threshold, so Moreno would have to approve it and I seriously doubt he does that now.

[Blarg]

By presenting it you are the advocate. It was a bad stance to take, saddling the franchise with another huge contract for a position that does not have a need. Sorry but it was a fools exercise. 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

By presenting it you are the advocate. It was a bad stance to take, saddling the franchise with another huge contract for a position that does not have a need. Sorry but it was a fools exercise. 

[nando714]

Arenado 

[zenmaster]

In other words, they are not giving up Betts.

[eligrba]

13 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Who's going to have the better career Betts or Adell?

Hold that question for about 10 years, then check back.

[DCAngelsFan]

15 hours ago, Lou said:

Betts isn't signing an extension.  He's dead set on hitting free agency.  That's why he rejected Boston's offer. 

And - and I know this is obvious - why Boston wants to move him.  They know they have little chance or no interest in signing him to a FA deal.  

That doesn't mean he wouldn't sign an extension elsewhere - but it would have to be his preferred team - if he has one - at a price that would make him forego a bidding war.  A 1% chance.  

With that knowledge - I probably wouldn't trade Adell for 1 year of Betts straight-up. 

Now, if we had a solid ace or two fronting the rotation, and we wanted to make a 1-year grab at the brass ring (World Series), my answer might change.   

But we don't.  

 

[Stradling]

13 hours ago, Kevinb said:

Who's going to have the better career Betts or Adell?

If I had to guess Betts.  Who will be better the next 6-8 years, I’m not sure. 

[Claude]

The Red Sox could ask for a low level nobody in a straight up exchange for Price and Arte wouldn’t do it. This years payroll is all set. It’s time to focus on the smell of the freshly cut grass again. 

[DMVol]

34 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

In other words, they are not giving up Betts.

^^^ I don't think anybody is taking on Price and giving up premium prospects to get Betts for a year....not the Dodgers or anybody else...

[Jay]

Does that ever happen? The "if so-and-so who is currently a one-year rental agrees to an extrnsion..." thing.

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Jay said:

Does that ever happen? The "if so-and-so who is currently a one-year rental agrees to an extrnsion..." thing.

I haven't seen it.