Talk me off this ledge....

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, Lou said:

be honest ......

don't you find it amusing? 

I do -- but, I get it at the same time..    My initial reaction to @Chuckster70's post was -- "Jump now while all the bodies will break your fall"

[jordan]

I’m highly disappointed after great expectations and hype leading us to believe Angels would go far and wide to land an ace. The off-season is obviously far from over. But not sure there is a game changer (Ace) that Eppler can get without trading Adell. Kluber was the main one I wanted after Cole. 

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I do -- but, I get it at the same time..    My initial reaction to @Chuckster70's post was -- "Jump now while all the bodies will break your fall"

my reaction is to always laugh at the bodies

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

He helps close the gap. Which should be the goal. It isn’t going to be just a one guy job to change the rotation from crap to good but a couple. Keuchel could’ve been part of that couple. 

Teheran is on a one year deal. Keuchel would’ve helped fill a need next offseason. 

Do you think we win more games next year with Rendon or with Keuchel and Ryu?  I honestly don’t know.  I would have loved to go into the season with 3 guys we know will pitch a good amount of innings and Ryu at the top assuming he is healthy and Ohtani held back so his innings would matter later in the year.  Then Canning as the #6 guy.  However Rendon is going to make for a really nice offense.  

[Inside Pitch]

Here you go, @Chuckster70

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

As of this AM, fangraphs is projecting the 7th best team in MLB

Team                   BAT   PIT   WAR

Astros	34.2	20.4	54.6
Yankees	27.0	24.3	51.3
Dodgers	29.7	20.3	50.0
Red Sox	29.7	17.8	47.5
Rays	21.6	22.5	44.1
Mets	20.7	22.6	43.3
Angels	29.7	12.8	42.5
Athletics	26.0	15.2	41.2
Nationals	18.8	22.2	41.0
Twins	26.6	14.0	40.6
Cubs	23.6	16.4	40.0
Braves	22.7	17.3	40.0
Indians	22.3	17.6	39.9
Padres	19.8	18.2	38.0
Phillies	21.2	14.8	36.1
White Sox	22.3	13.6	35.9
Cardinals	20.0	15.5	35.5
Brewers	19.0	15.5	34.6
Diamondbacks	17.3	15.8	33.1
Reds	12.3	20.2	32.5
Blue Jays	20.4	10.9	31.3
Pirates	15.1	15.2	30.2
Rangers	10.2	18.8	29.0
Rockies	13.2	14.4	27.6
Giants	13.8	10.9	24.7
Royals	13.8	9.1	22.9
Tigers	11.4	11.3	22.8
Mariners	13.4	8.2	21.6
Marlins	9.8	10.5	20.3
Orioles	9.1	7.3	16.4

Anyone that thinks this is loony -- take it up with FGs..    (that Stassi projection is kookie)

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, halonatic13 said:

All we can hope for is that Cole, Strasberg, Keuchel, Ryu blow their arm or get injured and Bundy, Teheran, Rendon have career years moving forward.  That is the only way to make these negative nancy pants shut their pie holes.  Just let the damn season play out!

I'd rather hope our young guys don't blow their arms out and deliver on their promise...  They do that, the team is set for a good bit.

[ScottT]

8 minutes ago, RBM said:

Fangraphs has our ED players tied for 2nd and our pitchers ranked 23rd.

Difficult to make the playoffs with the 23rd ranked pitching staff.

Prepare for a lot of 8-7 ballgames.

 

Better than 7-8 ballgames

[Angel Oracle]

Stupid Nationals made this get out of hand.    HTF do you give a guy $245 million, who has exactly TWO seasons in the past five of pitching over 150 innings? 

[ettin]

50 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm in the state of wondering what risks they do see as being acceptable.

Everything we all do in life is risk management but I agree I am beginning to wonder if their "finding value" model needs some tweaking or modification.

I will also note that there are still open avenues to acquiring another top of the rotation or even a mid-tier starter and supercharge the offense by upgrading at 1B and C (like a Castellanos/Contreras combination for example).

No matter what happened on the pitching front I felt that the Angels would at least upgrade at 1B, if only temporarily until one of Thaiss, Walsh, or Ward was ready, and potentially at catcher (such as a McGuire or Barnhart type for instance).

I agree with you IP that there is some balance to be found between building a long-term sustainable winner and going all-in. Even though the off-season is certainly not over yet I feel like there may have been a missed opportunity despite the fact that many of the available pitchers were probably heading to a specific destination no matter what Eppler did.

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, RBM said:

Fangraphs has our ED players tied for 2nd and our pitchers ranked 23rd.

Difficult to make the playoffs with the 23rd ranked pitching staff.

Prepare for a lot of 8-7 ballgames.

 

There is more than one way to won games, id actually love a lot of 8-7 games myself they would be hella fun to watch.    A win is after all still a win regardless of score. 
I know prevailing logic is that good pitching shuts down good offense in the post but that absolutely wasnt the case last year with perhaps the best 2 staffs in recent years against each other so thats kinda moot.
Bottom line guys were not getting the staff some of you want, period.  Its just not happening.   Were going to have to find other ways to win more games.

[Reveille1984]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Four years...  33 years old on opening day.  Soft body.   They must have ultimately decided that the risks outweighed his chances of improving the pitching.  Whether that proves to be wise or unfounded we won't know for a bit.  I'm in the state of wondering what risks they do see as being acceptable.

This is what is kind of baffling to me.  We haven't produced any top flight pitching in years from our farm system, and there's really none of those types on the horizon either.  

Every pitcher signed in free agency is going to carry some level of risk, and in our situation (on the cusp of contention, Trout not getting any younger, pitching being our most glaring weakness, etc.) you would assume the front office would be willing to absorb a little more risk to potentially tip the scales from middling team to good team.  

If Eppler doesn't trade for pitching, this offseason is no question a failure.  I love the Rendon signing, and of course team needs are not mutually exclusive.  In all likelihood we'll have a top five lineup with a lot of exciting hitters.  But we still have a bottom third rotation right now, if not bottom five and if this is what we go into the season with I'm going to be massively disappointed.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good posts guys.

You have successfully talked me off the ledge.

I'm actually good with just getting a catcher like Chirinos or Castro and adding someone like a Wood or Walker, or both. Maybe add a BP guy like Harris too.

There still seems to be enough money for two of those, maybe all three?     The chances are best though on them signing either Chirinos or Castro, and Wood.  

Walker has only pitched 14 innings in the past 2 seasons.    And, Eppler has never spent much on relievers in preferring the clean peanut route, which likely eliminates Harris as an acquisition.

I just can't see them acquiring Price, even if the Red Sux eat half of that $96 million over the next 3 seasons.    That's still $16 million/season through 2022 for a guy with only 63 starts over the past 3 seasons, and averaged UNDER 5 innings/start in 2019. 

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, zenmaster said:

We got Joe this offseason. We got Rendon this offseason. Without those 2 things, I'd be right on the ledge with you. 

Maybe Billy shocks the world and gets Lindor+Clevinger but has to give up the farm. Might not be the end of the world if we can go deep into the playoffs.

Let's say Billy makes some trades and we end up winning the WS but losing Adell AND Marsh. Would this board be outraged over winning a ws but losing our best prospects? 

We also added one of the best pitching coaches in the game.

[Angel Oracle]

Even more now, the necessity is there to draft one of the college pitchers in the first round this coming June.    One of them has to project around #10 overall pick, seeing that ten of them are predicted to go in the first round.  

[Amazing Larry]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Stupid Nationals made this get out of hand.    HTF do you give a guy $245 million, who has exactly TWO seasons in the past five of pitching over 150 innings? 

[Erstad Grit]

 

[Hubs]

5 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Good posts guys.

You have successfully talked me off the ledge.

I'm actually good with just getting a catcher like Chirinos or Castro and adding someone like a Wood or Walker, or both. Maybe add a BP guy like Harris too.

I preferred this option after losing out on Keuchel, because the way the market was going, I knew the price for Ryu would be too high for my liking.

I wanted Cole and Bumgarner or Wheeler. Those were my picks. Once Bumgarner went off the board, I thought, ok, we can add Keuchel and still be ok. Never wanted Ryu because of his injury history. I like the idea of getting Alex Wood for 2/15. Signing Walker as well makes sense, especially if he were willing to take a 2-way contract.

Adding Wood and Walker allows you to go to a full-time 6 man rotation. The rotation would not be splashy, but having 6 guys who can give you 150 innings, and even more depth in case they have issues with health... Ohtani, Wood, Heaney, Teheran, Bundy, Canning ...with Walker, Sandoval, and Pena also in the mix? Walker if he signs a minor league deal is likely in AAA to start the year, unless someone is on the IL to open it.

Getting a good Catcher helps the team, especially if it's someone who can hit. And short of trading for Contreras, I don't see anyone out there who can hit and field. Contreras is always written as a poor defender, but in reality, he's a good defender with poor pitch-framing skills, which is a thing Eppler likes, so I don't see it happening. People say Austin Hedges from the Padres is available, but can he hit? Can Castro catch 80-90 games? Do they need two catchers? Castro is my pick.

Like the potential fit of Will Harris. He would really help the pen depth, but I want a lefty too.

 

 

 

 

[eligrba4ever]

Just by healing the Ohtani elbow and starting fresh with a rested and stronger Canning you potentially have upgraded two slots.

Bundy likely is not Cahill and Teheran appears much more reliable than Harvey. Those two should take more than 150 innings worth of pressure off the bullpen.

Heaney ... well ... Heaney might get his act together early and shine. Or he'll be the Heaney we sooo love to swear at.

We apparently tried shopping at the Nordstrom Boras store, but now we're picking over Big Lots. Hidden gems.

[Chuck]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Here you go, @Chuckster70

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=1

As of this AM, fangraphs is projecting the 7th best team in MLB

Team                   BAT   PIT   WAR

Astros	34.2	20.4	54.6
Yankees	27.0	24.3	51.3
Dodgers	29.7	20.3	50.0
Red Sox	29.7	17.8	47.5
Rays	21.6	22.5	44.1
Mets	20.7	22.6	43.3
Angels	29.7	12.8	42.5
Athletics	26.0	15.2	41.2
Nationals	18.8	22.2	41.0
Twins	26.6	14.0	40.6
Cubs	23.6	16.4	40.0
Braves	22.7	17.3	40.0
Indians	22.3	17.6	39.9
Padres	19.8	18.2	38.0
Phillies	21.2	14.8	36.1
White Sox	22.3	13.6	35.9
Cardinals	20.0	15.5	35.5
Brewers	19.0	15.5	34.6
Diamondbacks	17.3	15.8	33.1
Reds	12.3	20.2	32.5
Blue Jays	20.4	10.9	31.3
Pirates	15.1	15.2	30.2
Rangers	10.2	18.8	29.0
Rockies	13.2	14.4	27.6
Giants	13.8	10.9	24.7
Royals	13.8	9.1	22.9
Tigers	11.4	11.3	22.8
Mariners	13.4	8.2	21.6
Marlins	9.8	10.5	20.3
Orioles	9.1	7.3	16.4

Anyone that thinks this is loony -- take it up with FGs..    (that Stassi projection is kookie)

Wow, thanks @Inside Pitch.

[stormngt]

15 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Why did we fail to sign any of the top 5 pitchers in FA when clearly that was our 100% need?

Wheeler is the one we dropped the ball on.

[stormngt]

15 hours ago, totdprods said:

Outbid on Cole, Strasburg never seemed likely to leave Washington, Wheeler wanted time stay East, Bumgarner wanted to play in Arizona, and Ryu needed four years which is reckless. And Odorizzi took the QO.

Kuechell?

[stormngt]

14 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Doesn't make sense to say "I'm serious mad about Cole, but we did get Rendon". Yeah, Rendon is a stud, but that took $35M AAV out of the payroll for pitching. Plain and simple. 

And exactly which great pitcher did we lose by signing Rendon?

[totdprods]

On July 16th of last year, the Angels were 50-46...Tampa, Boston, Texas, Oakland, and Cleveland were ahead of them in the WC race, but only by a handful of games. They weren't good, but they were competitive. They'd fall apart soon after this date.

Here's where the team stood that date:

• Top 5 in Rotation (most GS through 7/16):
  • Pena: 17 'GS', 81 IP, 4.32 ERA, 0.3 fWAR (replaced by Ohtani in '20)
  • Skaggs: 15 GS, 80 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.8 fWAR (replaced by Heaney in '20)
  • Canning: 13 GS, 66 IP, 4.75 ERA, 0.6 fWAR
  • Cahill: 12 GS, 70 IP, 6.56 ERA, -0.5 fWAR (replaced by Teheran in '20)
  • Harvey: 11 GS, 54 IP, 6.88 ERA, -0.1 fWAR (replaced by Bundy in '20)
  • Total: 68 GS, 351 IP, 5.15 ERA, 2.1 fWAR
     
  • Teheran: 20 GS, 107 IP, 3.71 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
  • Bundy: 18 GS, 92 IP, 5.28 ERA, 0.8 fWAR
  • Ohtani: 10 GS, 52 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.0 fWAR (in 2018)
  • Total: 38 GS, 250 IP, 4.21 ERA, 2.7 fWAR

Essentially, we've already doubled our fWAR production in the rotation just by swapping out one of Bundy/Teheran for both Cahill and Harvey.

• Rotation Depth (other GS through 7/16):
  • Heaney: 9 GS, 46 IP, 5.09 ERA, 0.5 fWAR
  • Suarez 7 GS, 33 IP, 5.51 ERA, -0.1 fWAR
  • Barria: 5 GS, 29 IP, 5.22 ERA, 0.5 fWAR
  • Stratton: 5 GS, 23 IP, 7.04 ERA, -0.1 fWAR
  • Total: 26 GS, 137 IP, 5.96 ERA, 0.8 fWAR (replaced by Sandoval, Barria, Suarez, Peters, Gohara in '20)

The kids should be able to outdo a 6.00 ERA serving as rotation depth, and hopefully aren't pressed into as much action as this group had been at this point in the year. 

• Lineup (by most PA):
  • C : Lucroy - .237/.307/.364/.671, -0.3 fWAR (2020 replacement TBA)
  • 1B: Pujols - .242/.305/.440/.745, -0.2 fWAR (essentially replaced by Rendon in '20)
  • 2B: La Stella - .300/.353/.495/.848, 2.1 fWAR (splitting with Pujols in '20)
  • 3B: Fletcher - .299/.363/.427/.790, 2.4 fWAR
  • SS: Simmons - .288/.319/.408/.727, 1.5 fWAR
  • LF: Goodwin - .280/.340/.440/.780, 0.9 fWAR
  • CF: Trout - .305/.455/.666/1.121, 6.2 fWAR
  • RF: Calhoun - .238/.329/.482/.811, 1.7 fWAR (essentially replaced by Upton in '20)
  • DH: Ohtani - .298/.354/.544/.898, 1.4 fWAR
  • Total: .276/.347/.474/.821, 15.7 fWAR
     
  • Rendon: .312/.397/.614/1.011, 3.6 fWAR
  • Upton: .251/.344/.444/.807/.788, 1.8 fWAR (through similar dates In 2018)
  • Total: .282/.371/.529/.900, 5.4 fWAR

The Angels were carried by an incredibly strong offense the first half of '19, and most of that cast returns in 2020. We will even add two bats that were better than our already-strong line-up in Upton and Rendon...and Adell could make it three. 

La Stella and Goodwin were the only ones who really out-performed, and both of them have internal replacements in Rengifo and Adell should they falter. Rendon's production is a massive add to this team, and Upton should at least match Calhoun's contribution, so we didn't lose much. A league-average catcher would offer the Angels no real loss or gain. 

This above should highlight just how much we are relying on offense to compete in 2020, but also underscores just how good we might really be on that side of the ball. Incremental pitching gains could be enough.

• Bench:
  • C : Smith - .286/.371/.451/.822, 0.3 fWAR (2020 replacement TBA)
  • 1B: Bour - .183/.269/.387/.656, -0.2 fWAR (replaced by Thaiss in '20)
  • IF: Rengifo - .269/.336/.399/.735, 0.9 WAR 
  • IF: Cozart - .124/.178/.144/.322, -0.9 fWAR (replaced by Rengifo/La Stella in '20)
  • OF: Bourjos - .091/.109/.114/.223, -0.5 fWAR (replaced by Hermosillo? in '20)

Again, much like the rotation, we'll be counting on the kids. Outperforming Bour, Cozart, and Bourjos shouldn't be too high of a mark to clear. Rengifo should improve. League average catching production should again offer no real loss or gain. 

In summary - we really shouldn't be too concerned. I think Skaggs' death really messed up the team's momentum last year - he was by and far our best SP at the time too. The Rendon addition looks better and better, as does holding onto guys like Rengifo and Thaiss. They have key roles to play in 2020 as insurance. In fact, I actually think dealing from the Barria/Suarez/Sandoval trio to help the rotation makes more sense than I originally realized. Couple one of them with Adams/Jones and the Angels should have enough to acquire one more arm still.

Edited December 23, 2019 by totdprods

[tdawg87]

This off-season has been gay as fuck. I'm absolutely flabbergasted we went into it with more money to spend and a dire need for pitching and we got literally 0 of the top 6 pitchers available. 

I'm glad we got Rendon, I think that was a great signing. I also like the Teheran signing. The Bundy trade was meh. But man, we desperately needed pitching and we moved the needle half a centimeter. That's smaller than my dick. 

I'm not on the "Fire Eppler" train because a lot of this is out of his control but sweet salty baby Jesus did we miss out. Pineda, Gibson would have been great. I think we could have swayed Wheeler if we gave him more money (this is completely hindsight though).

Fuck balls. 

At this point a part of me is hoping Eppler trades Marsh and Adell for Clevinger. 

[totdprods]

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Here's where the team stood that date:

• Top 5 in Rotation (most GS through 7/16):
  • Pena: 17 'GS', 81 IP, 4.32 ERA, 0.3 fWAR (replaced by Ohtani in '20)
  • Skaggs: 15 GS, 80 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.8 fWAR (replaced by Heaney in '20)
  • Canning: 13 GS, 66 IP, 4.75 ERA, 0.6 fWAR
  • Cahill: 12 GS, 70 IP, 6.56 ERA, -0.5 fWAR (replaced by Teheran in '20)
  • Harvey: 11 GS, 54 IP, 6.88 ERA, -0.1 fWAR (replaced by Bundy in '20)
  • Total: 68 GS, 351 IP, 5.15 ERA, 2.1 fWAR
     
  • Teheran: 20 GS, 107 IP, 3.71 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
  • Bundy: 18 GS, 92 IP, 5.28 ERA, 0.8 fWAR
  • Ohtani: 10 GS, 52 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.0 fWAR (in 2018)
  • Total: 38 GS, 250 IP, 4.21 ERA, 2.7 fWAR

Essentially, we've already doubled our fWAR production in the rotation just by swapping out one of Bundy/Teheran for both Cahill and Harvey.

And for what it's worth, he's comparable stats through that date for guys still available:

• Remaining FA SP Options:
  • Cashner: 17 GS, 96 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.8 fWAR
  • Bailey: 18 GS, 90 IP, 4.80 ERA, 1.1 fWAR
  • Vargas: 15 GS, 77 IP, 4.23 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
  • Nova: 19 GS, 106 IP, 5.60 ERA, 0.6 fWAR
  • Chacin: 17 GS, 83 IP, 5.18 ERA, 0.2 fWAR
     
• Remaining Trade SP Options:
  • Boyd: 19 GS, 114 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.0 fWAR
  • Price: 17 GS, 88 IP, 3.16 ERA, 2.6 fWAR
  • Quintana: 18 GS, 107 IP, 4.21 ERA, 2.1 fWAR
  • Ray: 20 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.9 fWAR
  • Lester: 18 GS, 101 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.7 fWAR
  • Samardzija: 19 GS, 105 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1 fWAR
  • Happ: 18 GS, 95 IP, 4.93 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
  • Archer: 16 GS, 85 IP, 5.42 ERA, -0.1 fWAR

Of all those names, only Archer, Nova, and Chacin wouldn't have been an improvement had they been added July 17th last year.
Most of those trade options would have been better than anyone we had last year and anyone we've added this year.

Options still remain, just comes down to cost...

Edited December 23, 2019 by totdprods