THE Official 2019-2020 Hot Stove Thread

[hangin n wangin]

The way the world is... it happens.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Still better than anyone we had last year.

Not by much, Price has also failed to get much over 100 innings in for two of the previous three seasons.   That plus the ridiculously high ERA in base runner situations = hard pass.

Edited December 31, 2019 by Angel Oracle

[Pancake Bear]

31 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Not by much, Price has also failed to get much over 100 innings in for two of the previous three seasons.   That plus the ridiculously high ERA in base runner situations = hard pass.

Re: RISP - Less than 30 innings on the season = Insignificant by itself. If it's part of a pattern, sure, maybe, but otherwise it's just a odd fact, imo. The durability question would be more significant.

[DMVol]

11 hours ago, Second Base said:

Yeah, that's definitely an option too. One I hope Billy Eppler follows up on. I don't just want Alex Wood on a one year deal though. If he's healthy again and looking to re-establish value, I want an option year on him as well. He's still young enough that he'd get a sizeable deal in two years.

Most of what I've seen indicates that Wood is likely to get a one year deal with an option (not sure how the option would be structured, more team or player friendly, maybe a mutual deal that is attractive to both sides).....probably lots of incentives also...

[zenmaster]

Isn't Wood out until June or so? 

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, zenmaster said:

Isn't Wood out until June or so? 

That's Hill.   

[Stradling]

I’m on the Wood bandwagon.  I still wouldn’t mind Walker on a two year deal.  Sign one of them and if the price comes down on one of the guys you’re targeting on the trade market then make that move and trade Heaney. 

[wopphil]

I like the possibility of a Price trade, as I think he has more upside than most of the other options and won't cost Marsh.

That being said, why is nobody discussing his injury? Wasn't it to his throwing wrist, and didn't he miss the last two months of the season? Seems like a ton of risk. 

[eligrba]

4 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I like the possibility of a Price trade, as I think he has more upside than most of the other options and won't cost Marsh.

That being said, why is nobody discussing his injury? Wasn't it to his throwing wrist, and didn't he miss the last two months of the season? Seems like a ton of risk. 

Angel fans assume every pitcher on the team either has an injury or is about to have an injury.  No need to talk about the obvious.

[Second Base]

I think the reason why Price is a fit for the Angels is because of their current circumstances and the market. To put it plainly, the Angels want to win and need pitching to do it. They have money to spend but want to hold onto their prospects. 

David Price could definitely help them win and wouldn't cost prospects as much as money.

In a market where Dallas Keuchel gets 3/55 with a 4th year option making it 4/75, getting David Price at 3/45 isn't a bad deal at all. Higher upside than Keuchel, and is likely to give you just as many innings, and he's that leader in the clubhouse that every pitching staff looks to as a mentor.

Would he be my choice? No, not really. But he's undoubtedly a fit. The Angels could certainly do worse.

As I indicated before, I really like the concept of Dinelson Lamet and Alex Wood. Not a huge fan of Jon Lester or Jose Quintana.

Edited December 31, 2019 by Second Base

[Stradling]

I agree on Price at that price.  In my head he’s still going to cost $17-18 million a season because of the market set by Keuchel and Hamels.  

[Erstad Grit]

5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think the reason why Price is a fit for the Angels is because of their current circumstances and the market. To put it plainly, the Angels want to win and need pitching to do it. They have money to spend but want to hold onto their prospects. 

David Price could definitely help them win and wouldn't cost prospects as much as money.

In a market where Dallas Keuchel gets 3/55 with a 4th year option making it 4/75, getting David Price at 3/45 isn't a bad deal at all. Higher upside than Keuchel, and is likely to give you just as many innings, and he's that leader in the clubhouse that every pitching staff looks to as a mentor.

Would he be my choice? No, not really. But he's undoubtedly a fit. The Angels could certainly do worse.

As I indicated before, I really like the concept of Dinelson Lamet and Alex Wood. Not a huge fan of Jon Lester or Jose Quintana.

You think red Sox would pay down price that much without asking for prospects back? That seems ambitious to me. I thought they'd either hand him over for free or pay him down to get prosects back. All rumors though I guess.

[wopphil]

8 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Higher upside than Keuchel, and is likely to give you just as many innings

What makes you say this? He hasn't been nearly as healthy as Keuchel the last few years.

[Second Base]

15 minutes ago, wopphil said:

What makes you say this? He hasn't been nearly as healthy as Keuchel the last few years.

Dallas Keuchel last 4 years: 168 IP, 145 IP, 204 IP, 112 IP. TOTAL IP 629 IP. Averages 157 IP

David Price last 4 years: 230 IP, 74 IP, 176 IP, 107 IP TOTAL IP 587. Averages 147 IP. 

So over the last few years, the difference between Keuchel and Price is about 10 innings a year. Divvied up across a full season, that's one more out per game. Otherwise, it's pretty identical.

Edited December 31, 2019 by Second Base

[Erstad Grit]

Wow twins sign hill and Bailey. I like that move for them, plus removes a suitor for Alex Wood which is the direction I'm hoping we go . 

[Second Base]

19 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

You think red Sox would pay down price that much without asking for prospects back? That seems ambitious to me. I thought they'd either hand him over for free or pay him down to get prosects back. All rumors though I guess.

Yeah it's really where you measure the break even point. The Red Sox would like to drop under that luxury tax limit, and are expected to reload in 2020 and 2021 before a return to contention in 2022. Price's contract both in years and amount don't help them in this manner, so they'll offload him.

But teams won't pay him more than what they could've signed someone else in FA and give up prospects. If the Red Sox can save 45 million, I think they'd do it. The Angels could even throw in Rengifo. Not advisable though.

[eaterfan]

15 minutes ago, wopphil said:

What makes you say this? He hasn't been nearly as healthy as Keuchel the last few years.

I also question the higher upside claim. His ERA+ in Boston has been 118 (over 4 seasons) with a high of 135. Keuchel has an ERA+ of 121 over the last 3 years with a high of 141. I used 4 years for Price because it's his entire stay in Boston but I prefer 3 year samples. That pushes the ERA+ to 122 for Price. Nearly the same, but still a lower peak in that time. 

But if you want to look at trends then Price certainly has more downside risk. 

[eligrba]

The only way it makes sense for the Angels to take Price would be if the Red Sox take Pujols. 

[Docwaukee]

11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Dallas Keuchel last 4 years: 168 IP, 145 IP, 204 IP, 112 IP. TOTAL IP 629 IP. Averages 157 IP

David Price last 4 years: 230 IP, 74 IP, 176 IP, 107 IP TOTAL IP 587. Averages 147 IP. 

So over the last few years, the difference between Keuchel and Price is about 10 innings a year. Divvied up across a full season, that's one more out per game. Otherwise, it's pretty identical.

Keuchel missed starts last year because he was sitting out.  Not because he was injured.  

[eaterfan]

11 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Dallas Keuchel last 4 years: 168 IP, 145 IP, 204 IP, 112 IP. TOTAL IP 629 IP. Averages 157 IP

David Price last 4 years: 230 IP, 74 IP, 176 IP, 107 IP TOTAL IP 587. Averages 147 IP. 

So over the last few years, the difference between Keuchel and Price is about 10 innings a year. Divvied up across a full season, that's one more out per game. Otherwise, it's pretty identical.

That's not really a fair comparison. We're talking about health here. DK missed time last year because of a contract, not health. I don't think he's likely to miss time due to contract in the future. If you take a look at his last 3 seasons without the contract time he averages 173 IP per season. That's significantly more. The last 4 without the contract time and that number is 188. 

[Chuck]

Homer Bailey and Rich Hill sign with the Twins. 

Meanwhile Eppler's like...

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

Homer Bailey and Rich Hill sign with the Twins. 

Meanwhile Eppler's like...

Yea we would have been fucking pumped if we signed another 5th starter. 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Homer Bailey and Rich Hill sign with the Twins. 

Meanwhile Eppler's like...

N64?

[Chuck]

Just now, Stradling said:

Yea we would have been fucking pumped if we signed another 5th starter. 

Homer Bailey was good last season and especially down the stretch for the A's. Hill when healthy posted a 2.42 ERA. 

 

[Second Base]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Keuchel missed starts last year because he was sitting out.  Not because he was injured.  

Yes but we can't say for sure he would've been healthy. I didn't count innings in theory, but in practice. The same applies.