How much would you offer Keuchel?

[tchula]

I remember back in December I got into with some folks over Dallas Keuchel.  I said he would pitch 110 innings and have an ERA between 3.8 and 3.9, or something to that effect.  A lot of folks said there was no way that would happen.  Well, Keuchel this year has an ERA of 3.59 and has pitched 107 inning thus far and is going to pitch again tonight.  How much do you think the market will be for Keuchel?  Because of his stability, and his ability to eat up a lot of quality innings (unlike Nolasco, who gave us innings but they were anything but quality), would he be worth a 3 or 4 year contract?  And if yes, how much?

[Stradling]

Maybe three years and $39 million.  Still gives up a ton of base runners. 

[tchula]

14 minutes ago, Baghdad Strad said:

Maybe three years and $39 million.  Still gives up a ton of base runners. 

That's about what I was thinking ... about 12 mill a year or so.  He does give up a ton of base runners and the reality is his WHIP will more than likely go up a bit moving back to the American League.  Once upon a time he was one of the better ground ball pitchers, which helps with his high WHIP, but I do not know if that is still the case.  

[Inside Pitch]

43 minutes ago, tchula said:

I remember back in December I got into with some folks over Dallas Keuchel.  I said he would pitch 110 innings and have an ERA between 3.8 and 3.9, or something to that effect.  A lot of folks said there was no way that would happen.  Well, Keuchel this year has an ERA of 3.59 and has pitched 107 inning thus far and is going to pitch again tonight.  How much do you think the market will be for Keuchel?  Because of his stability, and his ability to eat up a lot of quality innings (unlike Nolasco, who gave us innings but they were anything but quality), would he be worth a 3 or 4 year contract?  And if yes, how much?

I remember that thread, pretty sure Lou myself and others welcomed you to the board.   You were pretty fair in acknowledging pitching in the NL would likely impact his numbers in a positive way.

The biggest difference with Keuchel going into next year is the absence of compensation -- he's a year older, he actually had a worse year from a predictive data perspective than he did last year so, the warts are still there.  But, the one thing he does bring is reliable innings and there is value to that, maybe more to the Angels than other teams that haven't had the injury issues we have seen here.   Ultimately I think they need to see where the market takes it, and what his demands end up being.  He's still a Boras client I think... so, there is the distinct possibility he will again be marketed as something better than he is.

Anyway, as pretty as his ERA looks, his FIP was 4.49.   He's a secondary acquisition IMO and should be paid as such..   Maybe something along the lines of what Anibal Sanchez got?  Dude threw 136 innings for Braves last year putting up a 2.83 ERA   His peripherals were better across the board, his FIP came in at 3.62.   

Sanchez got 2/19 plus an option year.   IMO thats about as high as anyone should go with Keuchel.

[mulwin444]

45 minutes ago, Baghdad Strad said:

Maybe three years and $39 million.  Still gives up a ton of base runners. 

Three years was the first number that popped into my head.  Seems reasonable given his age, recent results and pitchers with comparable talent.  When healthy, he's a 3/4 that can give you a decent 185 IP. 

[eligrba]

59 minutes ago, tchula said:

I remember back in December I got into with some folks over Dallas Keuchel.  I said he would pitch 110 innings and have an ERA between 3.8 and 3.9, or something to that effect.  A lot of folks said there was no way that would happen.  Well, Keuchel this year has an ERA of 3.59 and has pitched 107 inning thus far and is going to pitch again tonight.  How much do you think the market will be for Keuchel?  Because of his stability, and his ability to eat up a lot of quality innings (unlike Nolasco, who gave us innings but they were anything but quality), would he be worth a 3 or 4 year contract?  And if yes, how much?

I hope Eppler can sign better pitchers.

[tchula]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I remember that thread, pretty sure Lou myself and others welcomed you to the board.   You were pretty fair in acknowledging pitching in the NL would likely impact his numbers in a positive way.

The biggest difference with Keuchel going into next year is the absence of compensation -- he's a year older, he actually had a worse year from a predictive data perspective than he did last year so, the warts are still there.  But, the one thing he does bring is reliable innings and there is value to that, maybe more to the Angels than other teams that haven't had the injury issues we have seen here.   Ultimately I think they need to see where the market takes it, and what his demands end up being.  He's still a Boras client I think... so, there is the distinct possibility he will again be marketed as something better than he is.

Anyway, as pretty as his ERA looks, his FIP was 4.49.   He's a secondary acquisition IMO and should be paid as such..   Maybe something along the lines of what Anibal Sanchez got?  Dude threw 136 innings for Braves last year putting up a 2.83 ERA   His peripherals were better across the board, his FIP came in at 3.62.   

Sanchez got 2/19 plus an option year.   IMO thats about as high as anyone should go with Keuchel.

You're right about his warts, and I would even suggest more warts are showing up.  His exit velocity has gone up every year, as has every other indicator showing he gets tagged.  But relatively speaking, he is still better than a lot of other pitchers and (and correct me if I am wrong) better than the league average. I think there is value in his innings and probably would be willing to go a little higher than 10 million a year.  I would even offer a 2 year 28 million with a club option.  But in doing so, I do realize whatever he did this year in Atlanta will be his absolute ceiling, and more than likely he'll progressively get worse.  

But his value in getting quality innings is worth a few extra million in my humble opinion.  If we had a #4 or 5 guy who routinely pitched six innings without giving up 5 runs an outing, that could really help our bullpen.  I think we could have one of the best bullpens in baseball if they weren't so overused.  

[jordan]

I will add that with his move to the NL, and only playing half a season, many of the hitters have not either seen him at all or very little. Moving back to the AL West would be concerning to me. 

[nate]

three fiddy

[Jay]

Angels are going to be desperate for pitching this offseason.

Boras:

[Second Base]

How much would I offer him?

I wouldn't.

[Taylor]

I love these threads where the poster has to make it very clear that one of their predictions was correct, rather than just starting the discussion.

[Taylor]

Keuchel's FIP is 4.50. WHIP is 1.328. Yeah, that's better than anyone else in the Angels rotation, but he's the very definition of an average pitcher.

[failos]

tree fiddy

[Pancake Bear]

The issue was not this year. This year didn’t become a concern until he missed half of it. At that point, whether he could even pitch effectively this season was questionable. The issue was a multi year contract because there’d been concerning trends leading up to this year. I haven’t checked this season to see if those problems have gotten worse, but I assume he’s still a risk for any contract over two years, and I dunno if I’d offer that (and I’m certain he wouldn’t accept it).

[angelsnationtalk]

$14.36

With a $25 gift card to In N Out if he hits his 100ip incentive. 
 

And a free coupon for a free body massage to prevent injuries. 

[Tank]

46 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

$14.36

With a $25 gift card to In N Out if he hits his 100ip incentive. 
 

And a free coupon for a free body massage to prevent injuries. 

You should also throw in a gift card to Sport Chalet with a questionable balance on it.

[Tank]

I’d go as high as 3/45 for Keuchel, but would hope to get him for less.

[Lou]

I'm not giving him a dime

[Jay]

If I'm Eppler, Keuchel wouldn't be my primary target.

But if he's available for a reasonable price we can use him as a 3/4 type guy.

That implies we have a solid 1 and 2.

We'll see.

 

[Tank]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'm not giving him a dime

Moving this to the tipping thread.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Tank said:

Moving this to the tipping thread.

sans Idaho

[angelsnationtalk]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

You should also throw in a gift card to Sport Chalet with a questionable balance on it.

But Sport Chalet is out of business 

[Tank]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But Sport Chalet is out of business 

Um, it’s an old aw.com joke.

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

But Sport Chalet is out of business