2020 strategy--what to do?

[Dtwncbad]

There is so much about this team that I like going forward, but it is still a little maddening to me to take a hard look at 2020.

Seriously what on earth is this team going to do to have the starting pitching needed to contend?

Canning looks good.  But even if he delivers on his reasonable projectable ceiling, the Angels are still inadequate at the front of the rotation to really contend.

Signing the kind of starter the Angels need will be "TOO EXPENSIVE!!!"

Trading for the kind of starter the Angels need, in prospect capital, will be "TOO EXPENSIVE!!!"

My question is are fans willing to stop objecting to solutions that are "too expensive" and make a move?

Or is the consensus to keep waiting for in-house solutions that are not obvious, not certain and possibly not real at all?

Seriously I would be very interested in hearing people choose:

A). Sign a stud like Cole for what will seem to be "too expensive"

B). Trade for a stud starter for what will seem to be "too expensive" in prospects

C). Keep waiting, hoping to win the lottery with in-house starting pitching prospects

Honestly what do you prefer?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

I'd like to see the Angels land a legit starter so I'd prefer A or B over C.  I realize a long term FA contract likely won't be worth it when all is said and done but if that player is a #1/2 pitcher for three of those years then it gives the Angels a much better chance while Trout is in his prime.  I'm not advocating trading for the sake of trading or gutting the farm but prospects are unproven commodities so I'd prefer not to bank the starting staff on prospects and one year rentals.  Someone like Cole knowing he'd be the guy you start in a wildcard game then having Canning/Skaggs/Heaney, etc. at least on paper makes me feel like they would be competitive.  That said whatever direction they go it's not going to ruin my interest in the team.

[floplag]

I think most are assuming someone like Gerrit Cole, Im not as i think he will get much higher offers than we can make. 
For me the reality is that its going to have to come from the farm and our existing guys.  I dont really see any other options since we cant really afford to trade for quality and will be outbid for them on the open market due to our limited budget.
We will be better, for certain, but will it put us on par with Hou?  Not barring something unforeseen happening.   Not yet anyway

[WeaverFever]

With all do respect what do you guys mean with the words “too expensive?” 2019 was supposed to be our year we started to contend. Now it doesn’t look like 2020 will be the year we contend. What’s the difference between Harvey, Cahill, Allan, and Cozart compared to Gerrit Cole? All those names mentioned are guys that are “too expensive” If we want to win we are at a point where we have to overspend. I understand it is a business and there is money involved, we have the best player in baseball in his prime, and everyone seems to be complacent with an improved farm. Who cares. I want to win. 

 

*** I’m not saying we overspend on mediocre talent, but the team needs an “ace.” You either do that buy overpaying in cash, or in prospects. Pick your poison. This mediocre crap is getting old. 

[floplag]

14 minutes ago, WeaverFever said:

With all do respect what do you guys mean with the words “too expensive?” 2019 was supposed to be our year we started to contend. Now it doesn’t look like 2020 will be the year we contend. What’s the difference between Harvey, Cahill, Allan, and Cozart compared to Gerrit Cole? All those names mentioned are guys that are “too expensive” If we want to win we are at a point where we have to overspend. I understand it is a business and there is money involved, we have the best player in baseball in his prime, and everyone seems to be complacent with an improved farm. Who cares. I want to win. 

 

*** I’m not saying we overspend on mediocre talent, but the team needs an “ace.” You either do that buy overpaying in cash, or in prospects. Pick your poison. This mediocre crap is getting old. 

i dont think 19 was that beginning at all personally, to me it was always a bridge year to do whatever we could to buy time for the kids.  To me 20 was the opening of that window at soonest, maybe more like 21 pending how fast the kids develop.

[nate]

Buy lots of insurance and a few spare UCLs

[Second Base]

2020 strategy: win more ball games. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

The Angels are paying Harvey and Cahill 20M while Cahill can earn up to another 1.5M based on innings pitched but hopefully they bench or cut him before that happens and let one of the young guys take his place.  Patrick Corbin's contract pays him an average of 23M but like most contracts it's back loaded.  I realize it will take a huge contract to get Cole but I'd rather see the Angels pay him 25M next year rather than them possibly pay Harvey/Cahill or whatever other peanuts they take a chance on 21.5M.  There's got to be a balance between FA and the farm and although the offense has struggled once Trout/Ohtani/Upton are all in the line up I feel much better about the offense than I do the SP.  An ace would go a long way for the Angels and take pressure off guys like Canning, Skaggs and Heaney.  I realize long term pitching contracts rarely work out but when the alternative is hoping your farm turns out multiple SP's in the next 2-3 years I think you need to take that chance with Trout entering his prime.    

[floplag]

We have Pena, Suarez, and Sandoval near ready in addition to Canning Not counting the guys already on the ML roster.  I think pitching wise, that is the plan. 

I just dont see them going the high dollar long term starter route that it will take to get a Cole or Sale or whoever might be there in the off season. Id love to see them maybe make a play for Bauer should Cle punt but i kinda doubt we have what it would take to make that happen and again your still talking long term high dollars im not sure we have plus the cost in prospects im not sure we can really afford to lose.

We have much more pressing issues in other places and no farm depth on the way such as C and 3B.   We need some guys to show they can handle the show to start thinking about trades anyway, Most notably Rengifo, and we still have holes come spring training currently filled by the 1 year mercs who will be looking to cash in im guessing if they continue to play well in Lucroy and LaStella. 

[failos]

Getting quality starting pitchers would be a nice start. I can't imagine surviving another year watching these slobs. Skaggs, Harvey, Cahill are all irredeemable trash. The money wasted on Harvey and Cahill could've been used toward 1 good pitcher.

[Troll Daddy]

Problem is everyone here wants frontline pitching yet no one wants to overpay to get it. 

[Docwaukee]

there should be enough money coming off the books to afford pretty much any pitcher available in free agency.  

they're also going to need a C.  All the other position player spots are filled adequately enough by the farm and major league players 

so instead of needing to fill out the roster with 2 rotation arms, a closer, and 2-3 starting position players, they'll basically need to fill 2-3 spots which will allow for a more concentrated effort.

I think Billy will pull the trigger on a significant trade or two this next off season.  

 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

The OP was asking what fans would like to see the Angels do not necessarily the plan but I don't disagree that that's the way they appear to be headed with SP.  The Angels currently rank dead last in starters in ERA in MLB at 5.86 which is 0.24 higher than the next team.  It's almost June and I can't imagine Pena/Suarez/Sandoval would do worse than that so if any of them are ready I'd rather them experience growing pains sooner rather than later.  The Angels have holes at multiple positions and the FA class doesn't seem real strong as far as 3B/C.  If you can get an ace via FA I'd like to see them at least make a run at one but I'm sure someone else will overpay.

[totdprods]

Too early to tell. Three days ago, Harvey looked like he was improving and Cahill was a disaster. One start apiece later and it's the other way around. Both have sucked. Hard. 

2019 was a gap year. Cahill and Harvey weren't brought in to lead us to the playoffs, they were brought in as flip properties. If they pitched really good, we'd get a prospect. If they pitched above and beyond, we'd be in the playoffs. If they sucked, oh well, they'd be replaced midseason and Suarez, Canning, Barria, and Sandoval would get a shot. As of right now, that's where we're headed. 

If things continue similarly over the next two months (not likely) than I think we'll see:

• Lucroy and Calhoun will be traded in July. 
• Perhaps one SP will be dealt as well, depending on the kids performance and if one of Cahill or Harvey can turn it around, or if Heaney or Skaggs particularly can become a coveted piece.
• The Angels will shop for a SP with control and spend some of the prospect currency they've built up. 
  • If they're still competing come July, they might aim a little higher, and look at Marcus Stroman or Trevor Bauer or Robbie Ray - someone under contract for one more season, 2020. 
  • If they're pretty far behind, they may aim a little lower or look for more control, perhaps looking at guys like Matthew Boyd, Jake Junis, Dylan Bundy, Jose Urena.
  • I expect one of Thaiss/Ward, one of Marsh/Jones, and perhaps one of our lower-level arms (Pina, Molina, Hernandez, Bradish, Soriano, Yan) to be dangled, depending on whom they're targeting.
• They'll shop relievers as well, especially Robles and Bedrosian, who are having great years but becoming more expensive (for arb-eligible relievers) and closer to FA. Sell high.
• The kids will play a lot in August and September. Open auditions for many and regular playing time. Anyone close to MLB-ready with playing time ahead of them could come into play. 
• This offseason, the Angels will sign once again sign a FA catcher. There are plenty of options currently slated for FA. 
• They will still explore signing one of Smoak, Abreu, Donaldson, Rendon, regardless of how the kids play, but signing one won't be a top priority unless all kids totally flop.
• They will acquire two starting pitchers (unless they traded for one midseason, then only one), at least one via free agency, and it will either be one front-line guy and a back-of-rotation innings-eater, or two solid mid-rotation types (think Happ, Eovaldi, Wood, Wheeler, Odorizzi)

2020:

• OF: Upton, Trout, Adell, Goodwin 
  • with Ward, Lund, Hermosillo, Marsh as depth
• IF: Fletcher, Simmons, La Stella, Cozart, Pujols
  • Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, Walsh, Rojas as depth
  • Possibly one big FA acquisition mixed in, Abreu, Rendon, Smoak
• Catcher: A FA signing
  • Smith and Briceno as depth/AAA
• Bullpen: Buttrey, Anderson, Bard, Middleton, Cole as locks
  • Robles, Bedrosian if they aren't cashed in and sold high
  • Likely a whole new host of names brought in cheaply again to round it out
• Rotation: Two new names, Ohtani, Heaney, Pena, Canning, Suarez, Barria, Sandoval
  • Skaggs is more than likely in there too.

None of that is unrealistic and all of that points to being a solid team. Cozart and Pujols, and I guess present-day Skaggs, are the only absolute stinkers, and none of them are being leaned on too heavily. 
We have plenty of money off the books this offseason and plenty of prospects to deal from to help that bunch without denting our 2020 depth or overall farm strength. 

[totdprods]

11 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

there should be enough money coming off the books to afford pretty much any pitcher available in free agency.  

they're also going to need a C.  All the other position player spots are filled adequately enough by the farm and major league players 

so instead of needing to fill out the roster with 2 rotation arms, a closer, and 2-3 starting position players, they'll basically need to fill 2-3 spots which will allow for a more concentrated effort.

I think Billy will pull the trigger on a significant trade or two this next off season.  

I'm absolutely sure of this. The farm has grown so much, we have more than enough fluidity with payroll, and the high-value finds in Pena, La Stella, Goodwin, Cole, Bard, Robles, Smith have afforded us some nice savings. 

You could even believe that the signings of Harvey, Cahill, Lucroy, and Allen were all done specifically with the thought in mind that Eppler simply wanted to trade them in July and stockpile as much prospect currency as possible this year, in advance of swinging impact deals this July and December.

Edited May 24, 2019 by totdprods

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Sign Cole. Trade for another starter. 

Rolling with what we have isn’t going to work. We’ve been doing that for awhile now. 

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

The OP was asking what fans would like to see the Angels do not necessarily the plan but I don't disagree that that's the way they appear to be headed with SP.  The Angels currently rank dead last in starters in ERA in MLB at 5.86 which is 0.24 higher than the next team.  It's almost June and I can't imagine Pena/Suarez/Sandoval would do worse than that so if any of them are ready I'd rather them experience growing pains sooner rather than later.  The Angels have holes at multiple positions and the FA class doesn't seem real strong as far as 3B/C.  If you can get an ace via FA I'd like to see them at least make a run at one but I'm sure someone else will overpay.

It'll happen sooner rather than later - it seems unlikely now, but the Angels should continue to play Cahill, Harvey, Allen as much as possible in order to have any hope of recouping some value from their deals. 

Kinsler didn't look very good two months into the year last year (Kinsler was hitting .190/.264/.282/.546 on 5/24/18) and here we are now, with Ty Buttrey saving our bullpen.

It's worth it to keep playing them and hope they get some value back, otherwise it really was money down the drain for no benefit. Plenty of time in August and September for the kids to get reps in.

Edited May 24, 2019 by totdprods

[HaloMilliVanilli]

St. Louis probably wouldn't do it, but would you put together a package for SP Alex Reyes?  Adell as the primary building block.

[Troll Daddy]

16 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

 

I think (insert) will pull the trigger on a significant trade or two this next off season.  

 

I think you’re right

[floplag]

4 minutes ago, HaloJustinBieber said:

St. Louis probably wouldn't do it, but would you put together a package for SP Alex Reyes?  Adell as the primary building block.

Better question, why would we do that?  WE need Adell, i dont see this as an option unless its a cy young caliber pitcher. 

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It'll happen sooner rather than later - it seems unlikely now, but the Angels should continue to play Cahill, Harvey, Allen as much as possible in order to have any hope of recouping some value from their deals. 

Kinsler didn't look very good two months into the year last year (Kinsler was hitting .190/.264/.282/.546 on 5/24/18) and here we are now, with Ty Buttrey saving our bullpen.

It's worth it to keep playing them and hope they get some value back, otherwise it really was money down the drain for no benefit. Plenty of time in August and September for the kids to get reps in.

The guaranteed money to Harvey/Cahill/Allen is a sunk cost while Cahill is already half way towards hitting the 100IP mark which is another 250K then he gets 250K each time he hits 110IP, 120IP and 130IP.  If they're worried that the young SP's aren't ready or think they can still turn the season around and compete then I understand marching Harvey and Cahill out there.  Unless those guys start pitching like #3's or better they're not getting their money out of those contracts.  If the Angels aren't competitive I don't care about the gold star they get for any of their one year deals that worked out.  If the kids have nothing left to prove in the minors then I'd rather they get more starts at the ML level because hitters will adjust and they will need to as well.  Too often you see guys come up towards the end of the season and they look good but the next year when there's more scouting reports on them they struggle and that's the real litmus test.  

[Slegnaac]

With Ohtani expected back next year, will they go with a 6 man rotation again, and might this impact potential FAs?

[Second Base]

I think before mapping out a plan, you need to map out the financials.  If we pretend for a moment that the Angels are currently at their spending max, let's see what's added and taken from the books next year. 

Additions: Albert Pujols +1 million, Justin Upton + 3 million, Andrelton Simmons + 2 million, various arbitration/raises ~ 10 million.  Total Added: 16 million. 

Subtractions: Matt Harvey - 11 million, Kole Calhoun - 10 million, Trevor Cahill - 9 million, Cody Allen - 8.5 million, Jon Lucroy - 3 million.  Total Subtracted: ~ 41 million. 

Of Note: Mike Trout's 20 million dollar raise doesn't count because he received a 20 million dollar signing bonus and a base salary of 16 million, meaning he's making 36 million this year, the same he will make next year, so no salary increase.

So we can figure the Angels will have around 25 million to work with.  Now then, let's take a look at what's coming back (operating under the assumption that Zack Cozart is not)...

C- _____________, Kevan Smith

1B - Pujols, Walsh, Ward, Thaiss....

2B - David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, Tommy La Stella

SS - Andrelton Simmons, David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo

3B - Tommy La Stella, David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo, Matt Thaiss, Taylor Ward, Jose Rojas

LF - Justin Upton

CF - Mike Trout

RF - 

4th OF - 

DH - Shohei Ohtani at 60%, 40% _____________________, 

SP (should be 10 deep with at least three front, three middle and three back options in AA or higher).  Front: Shohei Ohtani, ____________________, ______________________.  Middle: Griffin Canning, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney.  Back: Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, Jose Suarez, Pat Sandoval, Kyle Bradish.

Bullpen - Let's just say, Eppler's got this. 

Needs: Starting Catcher, Starting RF, platoon DH (maybe), two front of the rotation starters. 

Now, let's just assume that either Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh will be starting in RF next year.  Maybe not until May but they're probably going to be starting.  And the platoon DH, more than likely will be Albert Pujols unless he retires, which it doesn't sound like he's interested in quite yet, so this means a the Angels need a 1B.  More than likely, this is either Thaiss, Walsh or Ward.  You can pick one and you'd probably be right.  

So the big need here is actually a catcher, and two pitchers, and there's 25 million to spend.  Let's just pretend that Lucroy is extended for 5 million, which means there's 20 million left to spend on two pitchers.  Given the Angels depth toward the back end of the rotation, and the fact that there's some mobility here with Canning and Skaggs being capable of pitching at the front of the rotation, we can probably knock this down to a need for ONE starting pitcher and 20 million to spend. 

Primary Trade Target: Marcus Stroman.  Expected Salary - 10 million.  Years of control: Two.  Expected Price: I'd reference the Dan Haren trade as something you can look for.  Haren had two years of control and required Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin and Raffy Rodriguez.  At the time, Saunders was an MLB ready #4 starter, Corbin was a future #3/4 starter and borderline top 100 prospect, Skaggs was a future #2/3 starter and future top 20 prospect and Rodriguez was relief depth.  Now obviously, no trade has the same pieces, there are many moving parts depending on team needs.  The Blue Jays for example, need pitching AND outfield help.  So in this case, we can expect the asking price for Marcus Stroman to be something like Brandon Marsh, Jaime Barria, Jose Soriano and a random reliever. 

Primary Free Agents: Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.  Cole has had a solid career and will be 29 years old.  He'll receive a contract richer than Pat Corbin's this last winter (6/140).  Wheeler is the same age but will likely command one less year because of less of a track record or dominant stuff.  We can anticipate Cole costing 6/150, and Wheeler costing 4/80.  

Likely Outcome: Cole may be at the far reaches of their spending ability, but Wheeler figures to fall directly in line with it.  So here is the team I foresee being assembled.

C Lucroy, 1B Thaiss, 2B Rengifo, SS Simmons, 3B La Stella, LF Upton, CF Trout, RF Adell, DH Ohtani

Bench: Smith, Pujols, Hermosillo and Fletcher.

Rotation: Ohtani, Wheeler, Canning, Skaggs, Heaney - Bullpen/AAA Pena, Suarez and Barria.

Considering the team will experience an offensive upgrade at 1B and RF, and will add Ohtani and Wheeler to the front of the rotation, I expect them to climb from being an 80 win team in 2019 to an 85-90 win team in 2020.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

There is so much about this team that I like going forward, but it is still a little maddening to me to take a hard look at 2020.

Seriously what on earth is this team going to do to have the starting pitching needed to contend?

Canning looks good.  But even if he delivers on his reasonable projectable ceiling, the Angels are still inadequate at the front of the rotation to really contend.

Signing the kind of starter the Angels need will be "TOO EXPENSIVE!!!"

Trading for the kind of starter the Angels need, in prospect capital, will be "TOO EXPENSIVE!!!"

My question is are fans willing to stop objecting to solutions that are "too expensive" and make a move?

Or is the consensus to keep waiting for in-house solutions that are not obvious, not certain and possibly not real at all?

Seriously I would be very interested in hearing people choose:

A). Sign a stud like Cole for what will seem to be "too expensive"

B). Trade for a stud starter for what will seem to be "too expensive" in prospects

C). Keep waiting, hoping to win the lottery with in-house starting pitching prospects

Honestly what do you prefer?

Unless you've been pretty much asleep, most everyone here has already said they want to see them obtain a big fish SP.  My preference is to obtain it via FA vs trading away assets because the Angels still have more money than they do prospects.

Most of this post is just you doing your usual thing and that's fine but let's not pretend all the same conditions will apply next off-season as they did last.   This season isn't done yet and we already know Canning is someone they can build on.  They have a much better idea of what their pen has and will have moving forward.  David Fletcher has shown  he's not just a small sample fluke.  By the end of the year we will likely see more guys come up and hopefully answer some questions all of which could lead to them having fewer uncertainties moving forward.  If anything they need to really go harder with the call ups.

We can also stop glossing over the reality that none of Cahill, Harvey, or Allen, were plan A.  They struck out on all their primary targets and then shifted gears with a mind towards avoiding multi year deals.. Likely because they wanted to try again next year.  Hopefully some of why guys didn't want to sign here was due to uncertainty regarding Trout.  Maybe some of it was due to there being a brand new coaching staff and the reality the team had holes all over....  Two months into 2019 it's pretty clear the glaring hole is still the rotation, but even the harshest of critics can see there are fewer holes elsewhere.  Hopefully that rings true with pending free agents.

Btw, you would have a hard time convincing me that having "hoped to win the lottery" with the in-house guys (Canning, Barria, Suarez, eventually, Ramirez) would have turned out any worse than the route they did go with the one year contracts.  Which leads me to a major caveat....

If they can't get the guys they want I really hope they avoid signing guys for the sake of signing guys.  As this season has shown free agency is no more "obvious, certain or more real" than those in-house prospects you have little faith in.  This off-season had Corbin, Morton, and a bunch of meh... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/  Gio has done well but he went on record as having a preference to go to a contender.  

[UndertheHalo]

They need to make a very hard run and Garret Cole and probably be willing to over pay for him.  They also need to look into trading some of the top 10 farm talent for guys that can help at the major league level now. 

That lefty in Detroit.  Boyd or Boyle, something like that ? He’ll probably be expensive but worth a look.  Someone here had brought that up a few weeks ago. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by UndertheHalo