2020 strategy--what to do?

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Unless you've been pretty much asleep, most everyone here has already said they want to see them obtain a big fish SP.  My preference is to obtain it via FA vs trading away assets because the Angels still have more money than they do prospects.

Most of this post is just you doing your usual thing and that's fine but let's not pretend all the same conditions will apply next off-season as they did last.   This season isn't done yet and we already know Canning is someone they can build on.  They have a much better idea of what their pen has and will have moving forward.  David Fletcher has shown  he's not just a small sample fluke.  By the end of the year we will likely see more guys come up and hopefully answer some questions all of which could lead to them having fewer uncertainties moving forward.  If anything they need to really go harder with the call ups.

We can also stop glossing over the reality that none of Cahill, Harvey, or Allen, were plan A.  They struck out on all their primary targets and then shifted gears with a mind towards avoiding multi year deals.. Likely because they wanted to try again next year.  Hopefully some of why guys didn't want to sign here was due to uncertainty regarding Trout.  Maybe some of it was due to there being a brand new coaching staff and the reality the team had holes all over....  Two months into 2019 it's pretty clear the glaring hole is still the rotation, but even the harshest of critics can see there are fewer holes elsewhere.  Hopefully that rings true with pending free agents.

Btw, you would have a hard time convincing me that having "hoped to win the lottery" with the in-house guys (Canning, Barria, Suarez, eventually, Ramirez) would have turned out any worse than the route they did go with the one year contracts.  Which leads me to a major caveat....

If they can't get the guys they want I really hope they avoid signing guys for the sake of signing guys.  As this season has shown free agency is no more "obvious, certain or more real" than those in-house prospects you have little faith in.  This off-season had Corbin, Morton, and a bunch of meh... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/  Gio has done well but he went on record as having a preference to go to a contender.  

nice summary as usual.  

at least during this last off season they didn't pivot into a three year disaster like with Cozart the year before.  

I think Eppler has been inclined to make two types of moves.  This guy really helps us now and will for the mid to long term as well....or......the 'keeping up appearances' move where you high risk high reward.  

 

[Inside Pitch]

1

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I just dont see them going the high dollar long term starter route that it will take to get a Cole or Sale or whoever might be there in the off season. Id love to see them maybe make a play for Bauer should Cle punt but i kinda doubt we have what it would take to make that happen and again your still talking long term high dollars im not sure we have plus the cost in prospects im not sure we can really afford to lose.

Bauer has said on multiple occasions he will not do multi year deals, even when he becomes a free agent.  Whether or not thats lip service from him I dunno, but as it stands now anyone trading for him next season is getting a one year rental.

Dude is kind of a loon but you have to admire the sort of self confidence that makes him want to go year to year.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

1

Bauer has said on multiple occasions he will not do multi year deals, even when he becomes a free agent.  Whether or not thats lip service from him I dunno, but as it stands now anyone trading for him next season is getting a one year rental.

Dude is kind of a loon but you have to admire the sort of self confidence that makes him want to go year to year.

I'll believe that when I see it.  Kinda like Albert retiring early and giving up money.  

When someone puts  a 9 figure deal in front of him, he may soften his stance a bit.  

[Docwaukee]

also, no high priced pen pieces.  even on a 1yr deal.  

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'll believe that when I see it.  Kinda like Albert retiring early and giving up money.  

When someone puts  a 9 figure deal in front of him, he may soften his stance a bit.  

That's my usual take on things but he's a really quirky dude.  Not sure what to make of those comments coming from him.

[Docwaukee]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

That's my usual take on things but he's a really quirky dude.  Not sure what to make of those comments coming from him.

it could actually end up being clever.  get more suitors to the table and start a bidding war.  

[eligrba4ever]

The 2020 plan of plans:

• Clear out all the hired management.
• Tear it all down.
• Make Harvey pitching coach.
• Sell Trout's contract to Philly.
• Move the team to Winnipeg, Victorville or Temecula.
• Open a comedy club.
• Learn how to stop using bullet points.

Seriously. Or ... maybe not.  It all depends how I feel if we win the next six straight.

 

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

It'll happen sooner rather than later - it seems unlikely now, but the Angels should continue to play Cahill, Harvey, Allen as much as possible in order to have any hope of recouping some value from their deals. 

Kinsler didn't look very good two months into the year last year (Kinsler was hitting .190/.264/.282/.546 on 5/24/18) and here we are now, with Ty Buttrey saving our bullpen.

It's worth it to keep playing them and hope they get some value back, otherwise it really was money down the drain for no benefit. Plenty of time in August and September for the kids to get reps in.

How about changing their roles?  They have no values.  Would they bring value as a multi inning relief or as the "opener"

[floplag]

49 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

1

Bauer has said on multiple occasions he will not do multi year deals, even when he becomes a free agent.  Whether or not thats lip service from him I dunno, but as it stands now anyone trading for him next season is getting a one year rental.

Dude is kind of a loon but you have to admire the sort of self confidence that makes him want to go year to year.

Thats actually one of the reason i like the guy and would trade for him.  but even still its gonna cost even just for  that year.  Not Adell level cost but not exactly cheap either.  Id love to have someone with that kind of moxey on the hill every 5 days.  

[GrittyVeterans]

It's time to actually start trying to be a contender. The team has money and prospect currency to spend and several very good/great players in their prime. Pujols is the only bad deal remaining.

 

[totdprods]

42 minutes ago, stormngt said:

How about changing their roles?  They have no values.  Would they bring value as a multi inning relief or as the "opener"

Maybe, but I imagine they’d have to maybe make an even more drastic turnaround to be of value in those roles. Is it likelier they’d pitch well in a different role? As of now, yeah, probably, because the bar would be pretty freakin’ low coming from an 7-8.00 ERA. But they’d have to be lights out in relief to be of interest and I don’t know that a turnaround that sharp is possible.

They don’t have to dominate to regain SP trade value - they just need to get back to being decent at least. James Shields/Ricky Nolaso/Francisco Liriano/Mike Fiers decent. That’s certainly attainable and there’s still time. Fingers crossed one of them can get on a roll and rattle off 10 starts of a 4.00ish ERA, maybe with a dominant stretch for a couple games or a gem against a good team, like Cahill’s good game vs. the Twins the other day. The Yankees rotation is shot. The Phillies have issues. The Padres will be managing innings. The Braves might need to be aggressive. The Red Sox SP have been awful. Buttrey and Sandoval didn’t seem like big losses for those teams at the time last year, who knows who Billy can pry away.

Like I said, Ian Kinsler looked like a lost frickin’ cause this time last year and he still wound up getting us two prospects. We could’ve DFAed him in June but we wouldn’t have Buttrey. Sometimes it is worth it to stick this out. Expectations were low already this year. Let it ride and hope for the best. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by totdprods

[Tank]

2 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

Problem is everyone here wants frontline pitching yet no one wants to overpay to get it. 

I lobbied for getting Arrieta last year. I continue to stand by that opinion.

[Lou]

54 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thats actually one of the reason i like the guy and would trade for him.  but even still its gonna cost even just for  that year.  Not Adell level cost but not exactly cheap either.  Id love to have someone with that kind of moxey on the hill every 5 days.  

Bruin.

 

 

Fletcher?

Lion. 

[UndertheHalo]

Skaggs has show something before they can trade him.  Otherwise they’re just going to give him away and thats dumb. 

[Warfarin]

3 hours ago, totdprods said:

Too early to tell. Three days ago, Harvey looked like he was improving and Cahill was a disaster. One start apiece later and it's the other way around. Both have sucked. Hard. 

2019 was a gap year. Cahill and Harvey weren't brought in to lead us to the playoffs, they were brought in as flip properties. If they pitched really good, we'd get a prospect. If they pitched above and beyond, we'd be in the playoffs. If they sucked, oh well, they'd be replaced midseason and Suarez, Canning, Barria, and Sandoval would get a shot. As of right now, that's where we're headed. 

If things continue similarly over the next two months (not likely) than I think we'll see:

• Lucroy and Calhoun will be traded in July. 
• Perhaps one SP will be dealt as well, depending on the kids performance and if one of Cahill or Harvey can turn it around, or if Heaney or Skaggs particularly can become a coveted piece.
• The Angels will shop for a SP with control and spend some of the prospect currency they've built up. 
  • If they're still competing come July, they might aim a little higher, and look at Marcus Stroman or Trevor Bauer or Robbie Ray - someone under contract for one more season, 2020. 
  • If they're pretty far behind, they may aim a little lower or look for more control, perhaps looking at guys like Matthew Boyd, Jake Junis, Dylan Bundy, Jose Urena.
  • I expect one of Thaiss/Ward, one of Marsh/Jones, and perhaps one of our lower-level arms (Pina, Molina, Hernandez, Bradish, Soriano, Yan) to be dangled, depending on whom they're targeting.
• They'll shop relievers as well, especially Robles and Bedrosian, who are having great years but becoming more expensive (for arb-eligible relievers) and closer to FA. Sell high.
• The kids will play a lot in August and September. Open auditions for many and regular playing time. Anyone close to MLB-ready with playing time ahead of them could come into play. 
• This offseason, the Angels will sign once again sign a FA catcher. There are plenty of options currently slated for FA. 
• They will still explore signing one of Smoak, Abreu, Donaldson, Rendon, regardless of how the kids play, but signing one won't be a top priority unless all kids totally flop.
• They will acquire two starting pitchers (unless they traded for one midseason, then only one), at least one via free agency, and it will either be one front-line guy and a back-of-rotation innings-eater, or two solid mid-rotation types (think Happ, Eovaldi, Wood, Wheeler, Odorizzi)

2020:

• OF: Upton, Trout, Adell, Goodwin 
  • with Ward, Lund, Hermosillo, Marsh as depth
• IF: Fletcher, Simmons, La Stella, Cozart, Pujols
  • Rengifo, Ward, Thaiss, Walsh, Rojas as depth
  • Possibly one big FA acquisition mixed in, Abreu, Rendon, Smoak
• Catcher: A FA signing
  • Smith and Briceno as depth/AAA
• Bullpen: Buttrey, Anderson, Bard, Middleton, Cole as locks
  • Robles, Bedrosian if they aren't cashed in and sold high
  • Likely a whole new host of names brought in cheaply again to round it out
• Rotation: Two new names, Ohtani, Heaney, Pena, Canning, Suarez, Barria, Sandoval
  • Skaggs is more than likely in there too.

None of that is unrealistic and all of that points to being a solid team. Cozart and Pujols, and I guess present-day Skaggs, are the only absolute stinkers, and none of them are being leaned on too heavily. 
We have plenty of money off the books this offseason and plenty of prospects to deal from to help that bunch without denting our 2020 depth or overall farm strength. 

Wow, this is nicely done man.  I agree they'll try to shop players heavily this deadline.  There are a lot of teams who will be "in it" in the NL (not so much the AL), so I think we should be able to find trading partners out there.

Ideally, I'd look to trade Lucroy, Calhoun, and Skaggs (I'd list Harvey, Cahill, and Allen, but no one is going to trade for them).  See if we can obtain some useful depth pieces for them.  Skaggs could potentially fetch more, depending on how he performs moving forward.

In the offseason, I'd love for us to target one of Cole, Wheeler, or Ryu.  All 3 would pair nicely with Ohtani at the top of the rotation.  I'd probably avoid signing a 2nd starter, and instead feature a rotation of, say, Wheeler, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Pena/opener, Suarez, Barria, Sandoval, Madero, etc.  That should be a pretty decent rotation, and in truth, with our strong offense and strong pen, we "just" need a decent rotation.

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Skaggs has show something before they can trade him.  Otherwise they’re just going to give him away and thats dumb. 

At this point, I'd trade Skaggs if someone offered the right deal. He's only under contract for one more season after this one...if you can get something substantial this July, it's probably better to pull the trigger. 

That said, I think it's really unlikely. He isn't pitching good enough now to entice a team into offering something good for him - if that's what they wanted, they'd just go for an big-name or someone like Bumgarner. 
If he does start pitching like he did in his first 20 GS last year, then the Angels probably won't want to trade him. 

So, I think the only way Skaggs gets dealt is if he does something in between, say, a 4.00 ERA at 5-6 IP consistently every game but also some team out there will have to have a deep farm, a clear need, and likely feel they can tweak his mechanics to get him closer to his ceiling. It would not surprise me at all if Houston winds up being the team that does that. They aren't shy about dealing with the Angels, they have an incredibly deep farm, they have a great #1-2 punch right now, they're a little thin on the back, have a history of getting ridiculous production out of their arms, could lose Cole next year...Skaggs might be a great target for them. He'd help give them a gap for 2020 too, as their arms continue developing.
 

[ten ocho recon scout]

To answer the OP, you have to take a few things in to consideration.

Ill sound like a broken record here. The farm has been the focus. That overrides all. With that in mind, things like draft picks are more important than FA signings.

Once the farm improved, smarter people (like those with inside info) have to figure out what the core is, and what the timetable of that core is.

This is key. Timing is everything. Especially in the modern day where guys fall off a cliff at 30.

So any big moves have to be made with consideration as to how it will effect the timeline/plan. 

Know what sent a huge ripple in the plan? Shook it up? Easy. How different would this team look with richards and ohtani replacing cahill/harvey?

They knew that last winter. In reality, adding cy young to this team today wouldnt change much. Trout has been god for years, how good was the rest?

A good team is more important than a few great players.

So to answer. The plan is the trout/adell/ohtani team. Not the trout/calhoun/pujols one. Im willing to trade or spend big if it boosts the first option, not the second.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Lou said:

Bruin.

 

 

Fletcher?

Lion. 

Was that a haiku?

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Was that a haiku?

I don't listen to hip-hop 

[Tank]

1 hour ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Was that a haiku?

it's about 60% of a limerick.

[Pancake Bear]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

it could actually end up being clever.  get more suitors to the table and start a bidding war.  

Could be clever in a different way. Going year to year, assuming he doesn’t fall off, could make him quite a bit more money. But it’s betting on yourself - which, given most FA SP contracts, could mean he busts. I think that’s what he’s thinking, anyway.

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Lou said:

Bruin.

 

 

Fletcher?

Lion. 

Fletch is a classic Lion.  Outperforms the scouting reports to become a fan favorite.  

 

[Docwaukee]

35 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

Could be clever in a different way. Going year to year, assuming he doesn’t fall off, could make him quite a bit more money. But it’s betting on yourself - which, given most FA SP contracts, could mean he busts. I think that’s what he’s thinking, anyway.

if he does that, I think there's about a 90% chance he makes less money than if he signs a multi-year deal.  

[Stradling]

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a trade for a starter with years of control left this deadline.  It wouldn’t shock me if they went after Cole in the off season.  If they got a guy like Stroman for prospects, signed a guy like Cole and then have Ohtani and Canning, just like that they have around the same payroll and a pretty good staff.  Plus if we have to overpay in prospects to get Stroman we will probably get enough prospects back trading Kole, La Stella, Robles and Lucroy to make the prospect cost hardly noticeable minus the fact we will know the names of the guys leaving.  

[Warfarin]

So after about roughly 2 months of watching this team, I see a lot of great potential for future years, but I also recognize that it's not really a contending team this year.  It could have been with a few lucky breaks and good health, but when you consider several of our best players will have each missed more than a month of playing time at the minimum, well, it just wasn't in the cards.

Still, we have the foundation in place to have a really good team fairly shortly.  The key thing is to keep building up the farm system and to NOT trade from it at this point, at least until it gets stronger and starts pumping out MLB players regularly.  I would, ideally, like to trade as many tradeable players at this deadline as possible - Skaggs, Calhoun, Lucroy, most of our arbitration-eligible relievers, etc. While I realize we aren't going to win every trade in a landslide like the Kinsler for Buttrey trade, I do think we can start targeting some high-level MILB SP prospects and, ideally, a catching prospect.

Take one step back, two steps forward.  The Yankees don't often rebuild, but they famously traded 2 months of Chapman for Torres, who is now their top performing player this year and will be a cheap asset for them for many years.  We need to make several moves like that (but on a lesser scale, since we don't have a Chapman-quality trade chip to use), to help fuel our rebuild.

The reason we see teams like the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, etc continue to flourish is because even when they have injuries to significant players, they have so much minor league depth that they can replace their best players without much of a drop-off.  We are not there yet, but as long as we focus on strengthening our minor league system, then slowly supplementing that with a few selective FA signings, we will be in position to compete with those teams.