Jonah Keri: The Angels have tweaked their hot stove approach as they try to build a better supporting cast around Mike Trout

[Stradling]

24 minutes ago, floplag said:

Why would there be any?  They have made it very clear to those few fans they have left that they are not going to do anything different.  They are the Sterling Clippers on MLB.
 

But he has more money than Arte.   

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

It is hard to assess the Pujols contract in hindsight. We were all excited, even if some of us looked at his age and signs of decline and thought it was an overpay. But at the time, he was an inner circle Hall of Famer who was still very good and with a good chance to bounce back and at least be an All-Star for the first half of the contract. No one could have expected what we got.

On the other hand, you've got to think that the Angels put some detailed analysis into it - or should have. Did they scour his numbers for any sign of decreased bat speed or whatever might foretell greater doom to come? Analytics have advanced even in just the last six or seven years, so would that contract have been signed today? My guess is not. But Pujols was Pujols, and the Angels--well, perhaps particularly Arte Moreno--were excited about getting a Latino megastar to increase ticket sales and break records. Alas.

I remember going to sleep, ecstatic about it, when the rumors were 180 over 8 years. Waking up, checking my phone, and still being excited...but going "holy sh*t...thats a lot of money"

But "it didnt matter". The new media was announced like right after. I remember telling random strangers that "even if he sucks, it wont hurt them", figuring no way in hell would he suck.

In fairness to the angels, nobody knew he would fall off so badly. He was as sure of a thing as anyone in the game. Guys like him get paid, and aside from Vlad, we never had our own guy like that. Im sure the team expected the last few years to suck...where we got screwed was not getting any of the years we willingly paid for.

2012-15 he was still a pretty good hitter. 16 he was fslling, the last two have been horrible. 

If we had won anything during that time, it wouldnt stand out as much. But the lack of success, compounded with hamilton, and the TJ craze has amplified everything.

[wopphil]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

 

The other misguided component was the player development failure.  Every last resource went into the major league club.  

And the farm still has a long way to go. While Eppler has done a great job improving the system, we are still very thin on pitching and impact prospects. It is easy to see why he is unwilling to trade any significant assets from the farm at this point in time.

2019 will probably be another disappointing year, but by 2020 and 2021 this team might be exciting. Let's just hope Trout wants to stick around for that.

[floplag]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But he has more money than Arte.   

Hes made his position abundantly clear, profits over victories, any winning they get is gravy.  The org now has a dwindling fan base as a result of his actions.  They have been in the bottom 5 most of the last decade.  
Arte has said precisely the opposite, that he would spend to win.  
Pretty clear difference i would think. 
Noone expects the As to do anything other than act like what they are, the literal embodiment of the business of baseball.  IF the Angels ever mimic that, my days as a fan will be over.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Machado has a career .761 OPS on the road. 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Machado has a career .761 OPS on the road. 

What was the Angel 3B OPS on the road last year?

[floplag]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

they chose players the didn't come close to supporting the money they were being paid.  It's one thing to get a little less production than expected.  It's another thing to get almost nothing.  When you have a finite budget and are making a donation of $25m per year, that is a disastrous use of resources that leads to Joyce, Ortega, Nava/Gentry, and Maybin/Revere.  

The other misguided component was the player development failure.  Every last resource went into the major league club.   There was no room for error and there is always error.  The biggest problem over the last 4 years has been injuries.  The second biggest problem is having no depth to overcome those injuries.  It's replacing Richards and Ohtani and Shoe and Heaney and Skaggs with Lincecum, and Oberholtzer, and Bridwell, and Troy Scribner, and Daniel Wright, and Felix Pena and JC Ramirez, and Deck McGuire and so on and so forth.  

Youre using hindsight, thats not accurate when calling it misguided.  At the time of the signing there was no way to know how they would measure up to the contract, they paid what it took to sign those players in an effort to hopefully win at the ML level.  They didnt work out, they didnt get what they hoped, but i would hardly call that misguided.

Signing FAs is a cash transaction, no prospects lost.  The failure to look at and develop the farm was not tied to those signings and was its own unique failure. 

Mistakes were made, no question, but calling them misguided seems a bit unfair. 
 

[floplag]

For the record, i would still rather sign Mous for a couple years than Macado long term, for whatever thats worth 

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

What was the Angel 3B OPS on the road last year?

How many of those guys wanted $300 million?

[Stradling]

13 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

How many of those guys wanted $300 million?

All?

[Angelsfan1984]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

All?

I would take 300 mill with my career ops of 000

[AngelsLakersFan]

48 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

What was the Angel 3B OPS on the road last year?

.599

[Docwaukee]

27 minutes ago, floplag said:

Youre using hindsight, thats not accurate when calling it misguided.  At the time of the signing there was no way to know how they would measure up to the contract, they paid what it took to sign those players in an effort to hopefully win at the ML level.  They didnt work out, they didnt get what they hoped, but i would hardly call that misguided.

Signing FAs is a cash transaction, no prospects lost.  The failure to look at and develop the farm was not tied to those signings and was its own unique failure. 

Mistakes were made, no question, but calling them misguided seems a bit unfair. 
 

the word misguided is past tense.  

It's all related.  Their org philosophy was shit under Dipoto

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, wopphil said:

And the farm still has a long way to go. While Eppler has done a great job improving the system, we are still very thin on pitching and impact prospects. It is easy to see why he is unwilling to trade any significant assets from the farm at this point in time.

2019 will probably be another disappointing year, but by 2020 and 2021 this team might be exciting. Let's just hope Trout wants to stick around for that.

Depends what you mean by "disappointing."

1) Disappointing: Angels flounder at the majors (<80 wins), prospects don't develop well, farm slides back.

2) Break even: Angels stay somewhat competitive for half a year, but fall behind in second half, win 80-85 games. Prospects continue to develop, but no massive breakthroughs. 

3) Exceed expectations: Angels snag wildcard, prospects not only develop but one or two massive breakthroughs.

4) Wildly exceed expectations: Angels win WS, Adell reaches majors and is a star on impact; same with Canning. Several prospects attain elite status.

 

I would say there's a greater chance of exceeding expectations than disappointing, but a more moderate view is the break even one.

[UndertheHalo]

I won’t use the word misguided to described the Angels organizational philosophy during the Reagins and DiPoto era.

ill use the words fuc*king stupid and miserable failure.  I am right.  Any other description is also wrong and fuc*king stupid.  The proof is in the pudding. 

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I won’t use the word misguided to described the Angels organizational philosophy during the Reagins and DiPoto era.

ill use the words fuc*king stupid and miserable failure.  I am right.  Any other description is also wrong and fuc*king stupid.  The proof is in the pudding. 

hindsight. 

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

the word misguided is past tense.  

It's all related.  Their org philosophy was shit under Dipoto

Misguided to me usually refers to the decision at the time, not in hindsight, but no matter.   You are correct everything was shit under him, but not necessarily related or dependent.  Spending on FA doesnt eliminate farm development for example, he borked up on both but not because of one or the other he was just that bad that he managed to do both.
Just my opinion  

[Stradling]

Ok so with all the red flags about Machado you don’t need hindsight to know it’s an incredibly risky contract.  Hell it wouldn’t be hard to argue that signing Harper is a horrible mistake based on his WAR the last three years and his declining defense.  It would be very easy to see Flop Jr and DT Jr bitching about Arte’s commitment to winning when he doesn’t spend money in five years when the Manny or Harper contracts blow up in their face.  

[wopphil]

19 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Depends what you mean by "disappointing."

1) Disappointing: Angels flounder at the majors (<80 wins), prospects don't develop well, farm slides back.

2) Break even: Angels stay somewhat competitive for half a year, but fall behind in second half, win 80-85 games. Prospects continue to develop, but no massive breakthroughs. 

3) Exceed expectations: Angels snag wildcard, prospects not only develop but one or two massive breakthroughs.

4) Wildly exceed expectations: Angels win WS, Adell reaches majors and is a star on impact; same with Canning. Several prospects attain elite status.

 

I would say there's a greater chance of exceeding expectations than disappointing, but a more moderate view is the break even one.

I am generally pretty optimistic and believe anything can happen in a season. Calhoun might return to form. Ohtani might replicate last year's hitting. Harvey and Cahill might combine for 350 innings of 3.50 ERA ball.

But if I had to bet my life on it, I'd guess the team as currently constructed is an 81 win team.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

As doc said, one of my biggest "worries" about machado is that once he gets paid, he strikes me as the type who will become a major pain in the ass. Like a manny ramirez (without the talent. Machado is great, the other manny was better).

There are dickheads in sports. Its always a risk once they get paid. But the great ones usually have an ego, want to prove how good they are. Like bonds. Machado strikes me as the kind of guy who would bullsh*t injuries, miss time, etc.

Manny Ramirez was a great hitter but a poor defender...

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, wopphil said:

And the farm still has a long way to go. While Eppler has done a great job improving the system, we are still very thin on pitching and impact prospects. It is easy to see why he is unwilling to trade any significant assets from the farm at this point in time.

2019 will probably be another disappointing year, but by 2020 and 2021 this team might be exciting. Let's just hope Trout wants to stick around for that.

Thats why everyone, IMO, needs to chill. It will still be boring for awhile. If things go right we might see a wildcard. But things have to go perfect.

That said, they came up with a plan a few years ago. Deviating from it now would be stupid. Have to give it more time though.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Manny Ramirez was a great hitter but a poor defender...

True. But i think its fair to say he was more than a great hitter. Steroids or not, when he (and the few like him, like bonds) played, he was a game changer. In the clutch as well.

I hated the guy. But he was a beast. Him and ortiz were insane.

But my point is that as good as he was, he was a headache to the teams he played for. I see machado being that guy.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

9 hours ago, Blarg said:

Machado is an even bigger douche, quitting in the middle of the World Series on plays that could have changed the outcome. If he couldn't come to the table in that situation he certainly isn't going to suddenly see the light at $300 million guaranteed. 

I believe that it lessens his incentive to do anything, with a big money contract already in hand.

[GrittyVeterans]

Interesting thread. This has been a nice change of pace from the usual BS between users calling names, etc.

 

im dead serious btw, let’s keep it up

[GrittyVeterans]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

we could apply similar logic to the Pujols contract.  

just because I expect it to suck at some point doesn't mean it wasn't a mistake.  

I get why they did it though.  They were going for it.  It was just a misguided effort. 

I get what you’re saying but Pujols didn’t come remotely close to the range of reasonable production for his contract and CJ Wilson came pretty close. Probably needed 40 WAR out of Pujols over the 10 years for it to be reasonable and you aren’t even getting half of that

i don’t think it’s fair to compare