Jonah Keri: The Angels have tweaked their hot stove approach as they try to build a better supporting cast around Mike Trout

[Angelsjunky]

22 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Except Moustakas is the profile of player that isnt getting massive mo ry anymore.  The Angel's should keep an eye on this guy.  He might end up being the bargain of the offseason.

I am not paying Moustakas a big three year deal and I think it is very possible that nobody will. . .so he just may be the one guy that drifts into big-tine bargain territory.

He is no superstar obviously but I can envision 93 wins for the Angels with Moustakas far more easily than with Ward.

Well, I suppose it depends upon how cheaply he can be had for. Kiley McDaniel says 2/$22M, Fangraphs crowdsourcing says 3/$36M. I would guess he gets something like 2/$20-25M at the least, which is more than I'd pay - but granted, I'm not a big fan of the Moustakas-type player: one-dimensional power only, no plate discipline, mediocre average.

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

The difference though is that the 4 WAR player is going to cost far more, and isnt out there in FA.  Were not trading anything significant off the farm so Arrenado/Realmuto or something like that isnt in the cards.  

To me this is the literal difference between making a legitimate effort, and going on the cheap.  We have no reasonable expectation to assume that any of the current options puts up a 2 WAR.  Cheaper and younger, sure... but better? ... i dont see that, at least not yet.

10M in the grand scheme of thing isnt much, a 3/20 or 2/24 isnt going to break the bank, especially when the alternative is hoping someone play above their potential to reach the same level versus someone who realistically should perform at that level.    

Floplag, I think this really comes down to how comfortable one is with uncertainty and risk. You seem very uncomfortable with it, and would rather spend $10-12M/year on a "gauranteed" 2 WAR, while I'd rather spend $1M on 1-2 WAR.

I think it is reasonable to hope--if not assume--that at least one of Fletcher, Ward, or Rengifo is able to put up league average production in 2019. And if they aren't, adding in La Stella and you should get at least 1 WAR.

Cozart, if healthy, should be at least a 2 WAR player. Ward and Rengifo had great years in AAA and while I agree that neither or sure-bets, both deserve a chance. And Fletcher produced almost 2 WAR in half a season last year. Now most of that was due to superlative defense, which might be on account of a smallish sample size. If we assume some drop in that department, he at least seems capable of reproducing 2 WAR in 130+ games.

So again if its me, I'm not spending $10-12M a year on Moustakas. I'll risk it and go with some combination of what the Angels already have and use that money elsewhere, or--gasp!--not at all, and try to build up payroll flexibility.

[Jay]

I'd rather see us spend a few bucks and have a shot at the playoffs.

 

[Lou]

7 minutes ago, Jay said:

I'd rather see us spend a few bucks and have a shot at the playoffs.

we have one now 

[jessecrall]

Right now, Fangraphs has Fletcher projected to put up 2 WAR and Moustakas 2.8 WAR, which seems optimistic. One is young and athletic, the other is big, slow and 30. I just don't see the upside or improvement evident to make a $10+ million investment. 

[Docwaukee]

I'd rather take a flier on Tulo than Moustakas.  

[Angelsjunky]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I'd rather take a flier on Tulo than Moustakas.  

For the cost, yes. But I'm also OK going into the season with Cozart, Ward, Fletcher, La Stella and Rengifo at 2B/3B.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, I suppose it depends upon how cheaply he can be had for. Kiley McDaniel says 2/$22M, Fangraphs crowdsourcing says 3/$36M. I would guess he gets something like 2/$20-25M at the least, which is more than I'd pay - but granted, I'm not a big fan of the Moustakas-type player: one-dimensional power only, no plate discipline, mediocre average.

Floplag, I think this really comes down to how comfortable one is with uncertainty and risk. You seem very uncomfortable with it, and would rather spend $10-12M/year on a "gauranteed" 2 WAR, while I'd rather spend $1M on 1-2 WAR.

I think it is reasonable to hope--if not assume--that at least one of Fletcher, Ward, or Rengifo is able to put up league average production in 2019. And if they aren't, adding in La Stella and you should get at least 1 WAR.

Cozart, if healthy, should be at least a 2 WAR player. Ward and Rengifo had great years in AAA and while I agree that neither or sure-bets, both deserve a chance. And Fletcher produced almost 2 WAR in half a season last year. Now most of that was due to superlative defense, which might be on account of a smallish sample size. If we assume some drop in that department, he at least seems capable of reproducing 2 WAR in 130+ games.

So again if its me, I'm not spending $10-12M a year on Moustakas. I'll risk it and go with some combination of what the Angels already have and use that money elsewhere, or--gasp!--not at all, and try to build up payroll flexibility.

it isnt a matter of comfort, its a matter of expectation. 
If i believed those players would give us a 1-2 WAR, i would agree with you, but thats far in advance of what i expect they would do.   
LaStella has never put up better than a 0.6 per ESPN and that was 2 years ago and isnt projected to put up that kind of production in 19, Ward certainly isnt... it would take someone overachieving to get close to what Mous would do even if he was down a little offensively. 
im not counting Cozart as i beleive the plan was always for him to move to 2B.
It isnt that i dont think the kids deserve a chance, i think they will get it either way as people inevitably get hurt and need time etc... but i would rather it be with a fall back and safety net than oh shit they didnt produce now what.   

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

it isnt a matter of comfort, its a matter of expectation.  If i believed those players would give us a 1-2 WAR, i would agree with you, but thats far in advance of what i expect they would do.   LaStella has never put up better than a 0.6 per ESPN and that was 2 years ago and isnt projected to put up that kind of production in 19, Ward certainly isnt... it would take someone overacheiving to get close to what Mous would do even if he was down a little offensively. 

The point is Mous will put up a 2 WAR as an everyday starter.   The Angels will get 2 WAR from his position using a platoon without spending $10 million extra.  What if they get 1.5 WAR and can use that money to improve elsewhere.  

[Docwaukee]

17 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The point is Mous will put up a 2 WAR as an everyday starter.   The Angels will get 2 WAR from his position using a platoon without spending $10 million extra.  What if they get 1.5 WAR and can use that money to improve elsewhere.  

a catcher would be nice.  

I'd actually prefer to improve our SP and/or Pen depth above spending 10m on a guy like Moustakas.  

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

a catcher would be nice.  

I'd actually prefer to improve our SP and/or Pen depth above spending 10m on a guy like Moustakas.  

Absolutely.  Unless you can get Jed for around that price. 

[floplag]

28 minutes ago, Stradling said:

The point is Mous will put up a 2 WAR as an everyday starter.   The Angels will get 2 WAR from his position using a platoon without spending $10 million extra.  What if they get 1.5 WAR and can use that money to improve elsewhere.  

Suggesting we would get a 2 WAR from players that have never given a 2 WAR, or even 1, is simply not factual.   IF we could you would be 100% right, but the likelyhood of that from any of Ward, Regnifo, LaStella is remote at best.  If you are counting Cozart in thats fine but then we would argue 2B, which is is better suited for.   One way or another expecting that group not counting Cozart to put up a 2 WAR season is a huge reach IMO. 

[Angelsjunky]

29 minutes ago, floplag said:

it isnt a matter of comfort, its a matter of expectation. 
If i believed those players would give us a 1-2 WAR, i would agree with you, but thats far in advance of what i expect they would do.   
LaStella has never put up better than a 0.6 per ESPN and that was 2 years ago and isnt projected to put up that kind of production in 19, Ward certainly isnt... it would take someone overachieving to get close to what Mous would do even if he was down a little offensively. 
im not counting Cozart as i beleive the plan was always for him to move to 2B.
It isnt that i dont think the kids deserve a chance, i think they will get it either way as people inevitably get hurt and need time etc... but i would rather it be with a fall back and safety net than oh shit they didnt produce now what.   

La Stella has 2.0 fWAR in 947 PA - that's 1.3 fWAR/600 PA. Moustakas has averaged 2.0 fWAR/600 PA. Is Moose a better player? Absolutely. Is he that much better that he's worth paying another $10M for? I would say no.

Anyhow, La Stella is the fall-back. On Opening Day we'll see Cozart at either 2B or 3B, and either Ward or Fletcher starting at the other position. The fall-back would be La Stella, the other of Ward or Fletcher, and Rengifo. 

 

[floplag]

12 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

a catcher would be nice.  

I'd actually prefer to improve our SP and/or Pen depth above spending 10m on a guy like Moustakas.  

a catcher is a given, this would/should be in addition.  

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Absolutely.  Unless you can get Jed for around that price. 

doesn't he have to fall off a production cliff soon?  

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

Suggesting we would get a 2 WAR from players that have never given a 2 WAR, or even 1, is simply not factual.   IF we could you would be 100% right, but the likelyhood of that from any of Ward, Regnifo, LaStella is remote at best.  If you are counting Cozart in thats fine but then we would argue 2B, which is is better suited for.   One way or another expecting that group not counting Cozart to put up a 2 WAR season is a huge reach IMO. 

Fletcher put up a 2 WAR season last year.  Why did you leave him out?  

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, floplag said:

Suggesting we would get a 2 WAR from players that have never given a 2 WAR, or even 1, is simply not factual.   IF we could you would be 100% right, but the likelyhood of that from any of Ward, Regnifo, LaStella is remote at best.  If you are counting Cozart in thats fine but then we would argue 2B, which is is better suited for.   One way or another expecting that group not counting Cozart to put up a 2 WAR season is a huge reach IMO. 

Ok, how bout you read what I wrote?  I am not suggesting any one of them gets a 2 WAR.  I am suggesting a platoon gets them to a 2 WAR.  Mous gets his 2 WAR playing full time.  Would it matter if platoon gets you there?  

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

doesn't he have to fall off a production cliff soon?  

Sure, but do you think he will go from a 4.8 WAR to 1 or 2 WAR over night? 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Sure, but do you think he will go from a 4.8 WAR to 1 or 2 WAR over night? 

it does concern me.  

Why the F can't cozart repeat his monster year dammit!!

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

it does concern me.  

Why the F can't cozart repeat his monster year dammit!!

Cozart will be a 2-2.5 WAR player next year. 

[Angelsjunky]

Lowrie's been very consistent the last two years, with very similar triple-slash numbers. Nice fWAR, too: 3.6 and 4.9. Even if he drops to 3ish, he's probably better than Moustakas and anyone the Angels have. On the other hand, he'll also cost $10-12M/year, and require at least a couple years and is 34 years old. But he's an intriguing option. 

[beatlesrule]

I'm been reading that Tulo wants to play SS and teams with an opening there are the favorites.

[Stradling]

5 minutes ago, Randy Gradishar said:

Where is everyone coming up with the Angels' budget figures? Is it just fan speculation or have the Angels said anything? 

In the past, the limit was always the luxury tax, which I understood. But now it sounds like their limit is tens of millions under that; is that true? If so, that officially makes Arte a shitass. Trade him for Knowshon.

If the budget was the luxury tax then they wouldn’t have had a payroll of about $165 million the last several years.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'm not big on Moustakis. He made a lot more sense before the LaStella and Bour signings - he's also not all that good. That said I am still a little uncomfortable with the infield situation.

We have a bunch of backups, utility men and prospects with short track records that we are hoping to piece together into two average or better major league starters. 

Could Cozart regain whatever he seemed to have lost last year? Yes. Could Fletcher maintain his solid half season talent level from last season? Sure. Was an awful performance at the ML level all Ward needed to adjust into a real major leaguer in 2019? It's possible. Can LaStella maintain his same level of performance if his role was expanded to allow for more at bats? Yes. Could Regnifo come up mid season and steal away the starting job at second? Yeah. 

So sure those are all possible, but how many are likely? Requiring that two or three of those actually happen seems a little foolish when you could add an established major leaguer with a track record to the team.

[Hubs]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I don't think anyone's got Ward as the guy.  

I do! But that's why we bet a beer. I see him somewhere between .750 and .850 OPS with decent defense in around 350-450 major league AB's.

I see Fletcher providing excellent defense from both 2nd and 3rd, and Cozart playing primarily 2nd base. Fletcher will hit to a .725 OPS, and Cozart will hit also somewhere between .750 and .900 as a primary second baseman. Cozart will get a few starts at 3rd too, maybe 10 or so early in the season, but he'll end up with around 100 starts at 2nd and 10-15 at SS. I think LaStella gets 20 starts at 2nd and Fletcher ends up somewhere between 30-50.  Fletcher also will get 30-50 starts at 3rd, with Ward becoming the regular 3rd baseman by June and amassing 100 or so starts there.

 

[Docwaukee]

3 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I'm not big on Moustakis. He made a lot more sense before the LaStella and Bour signings - he's also not all that good. That said I am still a little uncomfortable with the infield situation.

We have a bunch of backups, utility men and prospects with short track records that we are hoping to piece together into two average or better major league starters. 

Could Cozart regain whatever he seemed to have lost last year? Yes. Could Fletcher maintain his solid half season talent level from last season? Sure. Was an awful performance at the ML level all Ward needed to adjust into a real major leaguer in 2019? It's possible. Can LaStella maintain his same level of performance if his role was expanded to allow for more at bats? Yes. Could Regnifo come up mid season and steal away the starting job at second? Yeah. 

So sure those are all possible, but how many are likely? Requiring that two or three of those actually happen seems a little foolish when you could add an established major leaguer with a track record to the team.

can Calhoun be who he was in 2017?
can Harvey be at least a middle of the rotation guy and give 160 innings?
can Cahill do the same?  
can Bour be the 2017 version?
can Upton hit with RISP?
can Buttrey close?
can Anderson build on his first year?
can Kevan Smith or Jose Briceno combine to form a decent tandem? 
can Ohtani repeat his 2018 over an entire season?
can Skaggs pitch more innings and get to the next level? 
can our prospect depth contribute?

we are loaded with questions.  My point is that so many of those questions need to have positive answers before the addition of Moustakas or Lowrie over what we've already got actually makes a difference.  

the other problem is that we currently have no clue as to how most of those questions are going to be answered where it would enable the FO to act on anyone in particular at the current time.  

I am more than a little uncomfortable with the infield situation.  I am even more uncomfortable with C and our SP.  There's a little less discomfort at RF and 1b as well as the back end of our pen.  

Honestly, the way this team is set up for 2019 makes me feel like I ate generous helping of hot wings about 3 hours ago.