Jonah Keri: The Angels have tweaked their hot stove approach as they try to build a better supporting cast around Mike Trout

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

can Calhoun be who he was in 2017?
can Harvey be at least a middle of the rotation guy and give 160 innings?
can Cahill do the same?  
can Bour be the 2017 version?
can Upton hit with RISP?
can Buttrey close?
can Anderson build on his first year?
can Kevan Smith or Jose Briceno combine to form a decent tandem? 
can Ohtani repeat his 2018 over an entire season?
can Skaggs pitch more innings and get to the next level? 
can our prospect depth contribute?

we are loaded with questions.  My point is that so many of those questions need to have positive answers before the addition of Moustakas or Lowrie over what we've already got actually makes a difference.  

the other problem is that we currently have no clue as to how most of those questions are going to be answered where it would enable the FO to act on anyone in particular at the current time.  

I am more than a little uncomfortable with the infield situation.  I am even more uncomfortable with C and our SP.  There's a little less discomfort at RF and 1b as well as the back end of our pen.  

Honestly, the way this team is set up for 2019 makes me feel like I ate generous helping of hot wings about 3 hours ago.  
 

I disagree. I don't think we are that far off from the post season in 2019 as it stands now. Obviously Houston is the class of the division. Cleveland is the only standout in the central, while New York and Boston will split the division and first wild card. You don't think we can compete with Oakland or Minnesota? Is there a mystery juggernaught I am forgetting? Locking in a couple more wins would be pretty significant right now.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

can Calhoun be who he was in 2017?
can Harvey be at least a middle of the rotation guy and give 160 innings?
can Cahill do the same?  
can Bour be the 2017 version?
can Upton hit with RISP?
can Buttrey close?
can Anderson build on his first year?
can Kevan Smith or Jose Briceno combine to form a decent tandem? 
can Ohtani repeat his 2018 over an entire season?
can Skaggs pitch more innings and get to the next level? 
can our prospect depth contribute?

we are loaded with questions.  My point is that so many of those questions need to have positive answers before the addition of Moustakas or Lowrie over what we've already got actually makes a difference.  

the other problem is that we currently have no clue as to how most of those questions are going to be answered where it would enable the FO to act on anyone in particular at the current time.  

I am more than a little uncomfortable with the infield situation.  I am even more uncomfortable with C and our SP.  There's a little less discomfort at RF and 1b as well as the back end of our pen.  

Honestly, the way this team is set up for 2019 makes me feel like I ate generous helping of hot wings about 3 hours ago.  
 

If all of those questions are answered with "yes," then the Angels win 95 games. If most of them are, they win 85-90; if half, maybe 80-85; if a quarter or less, 70-something. If none, 60.

That's what makes this team so much fun.

[Docwaukee]

23 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I disagree. I don't think we are that far off from the post season in 2019 as it stands now. Obviously Houston is the class of the division. Cleveland is the only standout in the central, while New York and Boston will split the division and first wild card. You don't think we can compete with Oakland or Minnesota? Is there a mystery juggernaught I am forgetting? Locking in a couple more wins would be pretty significant right now.

I agree that the team isn't far off.  I think a lot of those questions are going to have positive answers.  It's just so hard to tell which and where you might spend 10mil for no reason.  

  

[Dtwncbad]

Here is one way I look at the offense. . .

If they are going to roll into 2019 with Ward and Calhoun, the catcher they get needs to be a significant offensive contributor.

If they are going to get a catcher that sucks offensively, then I feel it is basically reckless to roll into 2019 with Ward and Calhoun.

I am going to have a hard time with a lineup that has Ward, Calhoun and a bad offense catcher.  That is potentially three gaping holes in the offensive lineup.

I just don't know how you can do that when it is so, so foreseeable that Ward and Calhoun might be offensive disasters.

Come July if the Angels are horrible offensively at 3B, RF and catcher, nobody in their right mind would be surprised.

So you can't do it.

Get a catcher that can hit or make a move for 3B (or 2B with Cozart playing 3B) or RF.

Many teams have to roll the dice a bit on one position, maybe one and a halfish.

There are two big questions now at 3B and RF, and you can't pile on a glove only catcher in that situation.

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

6 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Here is one way I look at the offense. . .

If they are going to roll into 2019 with Ward and Calhoun, the catcher they get needs to be a significant offensive contributor.

If they are going to get a catcher that sucks offensively, then I feel it is basically reckless to roll into 2019 with Ward and Calhoun.

I am going to have a hard time with a lineup that has Ward, Calhoun and a bad offense catcher.  That is potentially three gaping holes in the offensive lineup.

I just don't know how you can do that when it is so, so foreseeable that Ward and Calhoun might be offensive disasters.

Come July if the Angels are horrible offensively at 3B, RF and catcher, nobody in their right mind would be surprised.

So you can't do it.

Get a catcher that can hit or make a move for 3B (or 2B with Cozart playing 3B) or RF.

Many teams have to roll the dice a bit on one position, maybe one and a halfish.

There are two big questions now at 3B and RF, and you can't pile on a glove only catcher in that situation.

 

Ward isn’t going to play if he’s a disaster. 

Basically Ward, Fletcher and Rengifo are all fighting for one spot, with Cozart at the other. 

They think one of those three, or more likely a who’s-hot combination, ought to be able to provide average production. 

They also believe in Calhoun 2.0, whether or not anyone here does. He had an OPS of exactly .800 after he changed his swing. The MLB average from RF last year was something like .780. They also now have the two hitting coaches who helped him change his swing on the MLB staff 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Ward isn’t going to play if he’s a disaster. 

Basically Ward, Fletcher and Rengifo are all fighting for one spot, with Cozart at the other. 

They think one of those three, or more likely a who’s-hot combination, ought to be able to provide average production. 

They also believe in Calhoun 2.0, whether or not anyone here does. He had an OPS of exactly .800 after he changed his swing. The MLB average from RF last year was something like .780. They also now have the two hitting coaches who helped him change his swing on the MLB staff 

My level of concern from greatest to least at this point for potential problem areas:

1.  C - far and away.  It doesn't even have to be Grandal.  At least someone decent.  
2. SP - tons of potential volatility here.  the upside is interesting but I would still like to see them add another arm from the FA leftovers.  Perhaps someone who is willing to slot into the pen.  I don't believe in Bridwell.  Don't want to see him as that option.  
3. 1b/DH - I understand where they are at, but at bats from Albert hurt the team.  I know nothing else will happen here so whatever.  
4. RP - Buttrey, Anderson, Robles, and Cole could all be very good or they could be terrible.  Garcia, Bedrosian, Jerez and Jewell are even more wild cards than the others.  Fingers crossed that Middleton stays on track for a mid season return.  
5. 2b/3b - I agree with the route they are taking.  I don't see any additional value coming from someone like Moustakas and his price tag.  
6. RF - I think Kole will be fine.  Maybe even a little better than expected.  

@Jeff Fletcher I think I read somewhere that they are planning on Cozart at 3b.  Yet he wasn't very good defensively there and he was pretty good at 2b.  Also, how much PT do you see La Stella getting?  My guess is that his mediocre defense will limit his time even though I think he deserves more of a shot.  

[Angelsjunky]

My concern about "Calhoun 2.0" is that his hot spell was actually rather shortlived. Let's break up his 2018 season in three parts:

Beginning of year until demotion (5/31): .145/.195/.172, 4 wRC+ in 185 PA.

Return (6/18) through 8/16: .306/.374/.644, 173 wRC+ in 206 PA.

8/17 - end of year: .159/.269/.246, 48 wRC+ in 161 PA.

So he was historically horrible for the first two months, missed a few weeks, then came back and was JD Martinez for about two months, then reverted to pretty terrible for the last month and a half. I know he's streaky, but the worry is that whatever was fixed by that demotion didn't take. I suppose if he rebounded once he can do it again.

[arch stanton]

Too bad he’s not a highly paid professional athlete entering a potential free agent walk year. Then he might be motivated to make the changes that lead to his success 

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, arch stanton said:

Too bad he’s not a highly paid professional athlete entering a potential free agent walk year. Then he might be motivated to make the changes that lead to his success 

If Calhoun has a similar year as 2018 he is out of baseball. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

My level of concern from greatest to least at this point for potential problem areas:

1.  C - far and away.  It doesn't even have to be Grandal.  At least someone decent.  
2. SP - tons of potential volatility here.  the upside is interesting but I would still like to see them add another arm from the FA leftovers.  Perhaps someone who is willing to slot into the pen.  I don't believe in Bridwell.  Don't want to see him as that option.  
3. 1b/DH - I understand where they are at, but at bats from Albert hurt the team.  I know nothing else will happen here so whatever.  
4. RP - Buttrey, Anderson, Robles, and Cole could all be very good or they could be terrible.  Garcia, Bedrosian, Jerez and Jewell are even more wild cards than the others.  Fingers crossed that Middleton stays on track for a mid season return.  
5. 2b/3b - I agree with the route they are taking.  I don't see any additional value coming from someone like Moustakas and his price tag.  
6. RF - I think Kole will be fine.  Maybe even a little better than expected.  

@Jeff Fletcher I think I read somewhere that they are planning on Cozart at 3b.  Yet he wasn't very good defensively there and he was pretty good at 2b.  Also, how much PT do you see La Stella getting?  My guess is that his mediocre defense will limit his time even though I think he deserves more of a shot.  

I don’t think they have decided which spot Cozart will play. It probably depends on who else is playing well. Obviously if Ward is the best, Cozart plays 2B. If it’s Rengifo, Cozart plays 3B. I think they could do either with Fletcher. 

I don’t honestly remember Cozart being bad at 3B. He was a SS so I would think 3B is easier than 2B. He made a few physical errors but it was a small sample size. I am sure he can do either. 

LaStella is just going to bounce around. I wouldn’t expect him to start much. 

[Angelsfan1984]

5 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I don’t think they have decided which spot Cozart will play. It probably depends on who else is playing well. Obviously if Ward is the best, Cozart plays 2B. If it’s Rengifo, Cozart plays 3B. I think they could do either with Fletcher. 

I don’t honestly remember Cozart being bad at 3B. He was a SS so I would think 3B is easier than 2B. He made a few physical errors but it was a small sample size. I am sure he can do either. 

LaStella is just going to bounce around. I wouldn’t expect him to start much. 

SS translate much easier to 2nd than to 3rd. It is all the same technique just in reverse. 3rd is a completely different set of positioning. 

[Stradling]

47 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

SS translate much easier to 2nd than to 3rd. It is all the same technique just in reverse. 3rd is a completely different set of positioning. 

I have heard the transition from SS to 2nd is MUCH harder than the transition from SS to 3rd.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

32 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I have heard the transition from SS to 2nd is MUCH harder than the transition from SS to 3rd.  

This is what I believe. 

[Lou]

54 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I have heard the transition from SS to 2nd is MUCH harder than the transition from SS to 3rd.  

yeah, the whole "same technique but in reverse" didn't equate to easier for me. 

[Stradling]

Just now, Lou said:

yeah, the whole "same technique but in reverse" didn't equate to easier for me. 

It’s increibly difficult. 

[Lou]

Pupils should bat lefty 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

Pupils should bat lefty 

It is the same thing only opposite.  It’ll also help the shift.

[GrittyVeterans]

I'm somewhat optimistic about Kole but not so much on Cozart. I think Kole will put up about a .740 OPS which will bring him to ~2.5 WAR, which is fine. 

My problem with Cozart is he is now 33 years old and has never been more than mediocre at the plate except for one year. Also coming off a pretty big injury. I fear he will have an OBP below .300 this season and will get regular at bats. And it will put a lot of pressure on Fletcher or Ward to perform better than they are ready to offensively. 

Catcher, 3B, 2B are the concerns for me offensively.Also every day that Pujols plays 1B, first base also becomes a concern. I think you can get away with one of those positions being pretty terrible at the plate but I really hope we don't have all 3 as below average. The bottom of our lineup was awful last season

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Who is our competition for the second wild card next year, the A's, TB Rays, or someone else?

Texas, and Seattle shouldn't be a problem next year.

[Angelsjunky]

Cozart will never repeat 2017, but he could go back to 2015-16 production when he hit a combined .254/.308/.435 with a 95 wRC+, in other words slightly below league average but decent enough for an infielder with very good defense. That's a 2-3 WAR player.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Cozart will never repeat 2017, but he could go back to 2015-16 production when he hit a combined .254/.308/.435 with a 95 wRC+, in other words slightly below league average but decent enough for an infielder with very good defense. That's a 2-3 WAR player.

Yup - and I actually think you can nudge that slash up a little and it would still be well within reason - maybe .260/.320/.440/.760

His 2017 season was too good to have been a complete fluke - I think he could still put up a .750-.800 OPS and 110-120 OPS+ without it being completely unrealistic.

But I would be happy with a baseline .725, 100 OPS+, 3 WAR player too. 

[Docwaukee]

I would trade Cozart in a heartbeat if someone would take him.  for nothing but the other team taking on his salary.  His 2017 was such an outlier, I just can't imagine him doing anything close going forward.  Half of his value in previous seasons came from him playing SS which is what his projections are currently based on.  His best full season prior to 2017 was a 92 ops+ in 2016.  Before 2017, his ops+ from the previous 5 years was 82.   He's also averaged 112 games per year.  

If he has an ops over .700 in 2019, I'll be astounded.  

[ettin]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Cozart will never repeat 2017, but he could go back to 2015-16 production when he hit a combined .254/.308/.435 with a 95 wRC+, in other words slightly below league average but decent enough for an infielder with very good defense. That's a 2-3 WAR player.

 

24 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yup - and I actually think you can nudge that slash up a little and it would still be well within reason - maybe .260/.320/.440/.760

His 2017 season was too good to have been a complete fluke - I think he could still put up a .750-.800 OPS and 110-120 OPS+ without it being completely unrealistic.

But I would be happy with a baseline .725, 100 OPS+, 3 WAR player too. 

Steamer is projecting him at 3.1 WAR.

[Lou]

6 hours ago, ettin said:

Steamer is projecting him at 3.1 WAR.

Sold!

[Docwaukee]

If Cozart was actually good prior to his injury, I'd have a lot more confidence but any thought that his 2017 might not be a total fluke was erased by his .658 ops prior to him going out.  Personally didn't think his defense at 3b was very good either.