Jonah Keri: The Angels have tweaked their hot stove approach as they try to build a better supporting cast around Mike Trout

[nate]

Great article IMO https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/the-angels-have-tweaked-their-hot-stove-approach-as-they-try-to-build-a-better-supporting-cast-around-mike-trout/

[Angel Oracle]

Great article, although they omitted Sandoval’s name from the best of the farm pitchers list.

He may be better than Suarez.

[T.G.]

Re: Trout and winning....

"What's misguided is the notion that the Angels haven't tried to do anything about it. If anything, they seem to fail more and more spectacularly the harder they try."

[Dtwncbad]

What is also misguided is the notion that, after disasters spending on 32 year olds and drug addicts, they should be afraid to spend on 26 year olds that are not drug addicts.

[floplag]

14 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

What is also misguided is the notion that, after disasters spending on 32 year olds and drug addicts, they should be afraid to spend on 26 year olds that are not drug addicts.

Yeah, pretty much this. 

There is marked difference between signing a 26-27 year old and a 30something year old.   You have a far greater chance of getting more of the moneys worth from the younger player obviously.  Any long term high dollar contract is going to have its bad years it seems, its just a given, but when you start them younger you lessen that.

Our failures havent been effort, they havent even been misguided effort, they simply been that the players we put that faith in failed or aged faster than expected.   sure you can easily argue we made poor decisions on whoi to take those risks on but it also often comes down to who was actually available.  Everyone had concerns about Wells/Hackilton, and I cant imagine anyone ever thought Pujols would be worth it in the tail end of the deal, it was never realistic.  That doesnt make it justification to not take more risks you just have to be smarter about them and learn your lessons.

[Second Base]

I don't believe that CJ Wilson's contract was a disaster. 3.78 ERA, all-star appearance and logged more than 200 innings twice and 175 innings once. At 17 million a year, they pretty much got what they paid for. That contract worked out better than the Weaver extension, yet everyone still loves Jered. 

[Docwaukee]

so people complain that the red flags were going up all over the place for the Pujols and Hamilton deals yet we didn't notice them.  

So it was clearly a bad idea to commit 125m over 5 years to a recovering addict.  

What about committing over three times that to a guy who has stated that hustle is not part of his game.  Something he said during the playoffs.   The team that traded for him at the deadline wants nothing to do with him.  He purposefully tried to step on a guys ankle and injure him.  He has flung his bat purposefully at another player.  He has swung his bat and hit a catcher on the back of the head on purpose...twice.  He turns his game off and on at his own discretion.  

He's also got 125 point OPS difference between his home and away splits after playing most of his career in a bandbox.  He's also known to not be a good clubhouse guy.  After he gets paid a kings ransom, where's the motivation gonna come from?  

but lets ignore the red flags again and the fact that adding a 10yr commitment at $30m per year creates financial strain and kills all flexibility for probably close to a 5yr stretch.  

I'll ask this again because it never seems to get answered, but it's a very simple and practical question.  When we have $130 mil committed to 4 position players in 2022, who is going to pitch?  

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I don't believe that CJ Wilson's contract was a disaster. 3.78 ERA, all-star appearance and logged more than 200 innings twice and 175 innings once. At 17 million a year, they pretty much got what they paid for. That contract worked out better than the Weaver extension, yet everyone still loves Jered. 

I compare to how a lot of people think Upton sucks but really like Kole.   Kole looks like he’s trying, Weaver looked like he cared.   I was guilty of it with Escobar.   I still don’t like that guy.   I’m pretty sure Machado would rub me the wrong way as well. 

[floplag]

3 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

so people complain that the red flags were going up all over the place for the Pujols and Hamilton deals yet we didn't notice them.  

So it was clearly a bad idea to commit 125m over 5 years to a recovering addict.  

What about committing over three times that to a guy who has stated that hustle is not part of his game.  Something he said during the playoffs.   The team that traded for him at the deadline wants nothing to do with him.  He purposefully tried to step on a guys ankle and injure him.  He has flung his bat purposefully at another player.  He has swung his bat and hit a catcher on the back of the head on purpose...twice.  He turns his game off and on at his own discretion.  

He's also got 125 point OPS difference between his home and away splits after playing most of his career in a bandbox.  He's also known to not be a good clubhouse guy.  After he gets paid a kings ransom, where's the motivation gonna come from?  

but lets ignore the red flags again and the fact that adding a 10yr commitment at $30m per year creates financial strain and kills all flexibility for probably close to a 5yr stretch.  

I'll ask this again because it never seems to get answered, but it's a very simple and practical question.  When we have $130 mil committed to 4 position players in 2022, who is going to pitch?  

Isnt that when all the farm hands are supposed to be coming into thier own?
I mean this is part sarcasm but actually also part legit question,  by 22 the core of the rotation should be Ohtani, Canning, Suarez, Barria, Pena, etc...   Plus after 22 at the absolute latest Pujols and Upton are off the books and Adell is in the OF and that money can be re-allocated.  It isnt like that in perpetuity.   Yes for a few years we have too much tied up into a small number of players but that solves itself shortly after. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Isnt that when all the farm hands are supposed to be coming into thier own?
I mean this is part sarcasm but actually also part legit question,  by 22 the core of the rotation should be Ohtani, Canning, Suarez, Barria, Pena, etc...   Plus after 22 at the absolute latest Pujols and Upton are off the books and Adell is in the OF and that money can be re-allocated.  It isnt like that in perpetuity.   Yes for a few years we have too much tied up into a small number of players but that solves itself shortly after. 

that's the kind of mentality that hamstrung this team.  Upton is signed through 2022 btw.   The farm will start to contribute sooner than that, but you can't guarantee where those contributions are going to come from.  That's the point I have been trying to make about the farm.  It's too early to tell.  So don't paint yourself into a corner.  

and again, what about all those red flags for  Machado?  Hand $300m to a guy with his history and hope he suddenly becomes an upstanding guy?  There's a reason one of the best players in baseball has all of 3 suitors.  I'd love for him to sign with the Yankees so we can watch that media shit show.  

[Inside Pitch]

56 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I don't believe that CJ Wilson's contract was a disaster. 3.78 ERA, all-star appearance and logged more than 200 innings twice and 175 innings once. At 17 million a year, they pretty much got what they paid for. That contract worked out better than the Weaver extension, yet everyone still loves Jered. 

Worked out better how?   There was a net difference of 10 mil over five years in which Weaver nearly doubled Wilson's bWAR 10.4 .vs 5.5, this despite his two awful final seasons.   Weaver gave them more innings, a better ERA+.   He was awful at the end but those first three seasons he outperformed Wilson by a pretty fair margin.

[Jay]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and again, what about all those red flags for  Machado?  Hand $300m to a guy with his history and hope he suddenly becomes an upstanding guy?  There's a reason one of the best players in baseball has all of 3 suitors.  I'd love for him to sign with the Yankees so we can watch that media shit show.  

Not sure why you continue to beat this Machado drum... the Angels aren't getting him.

 

[floplag]

28 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

that's the kind of mentality that hamstrung this team.  Upton is signed through 2022 btw.   The farm will start to contribute sooner than that, but you can't guarantee where those contributions are going to come from.  That's the point I have been trying to make about the farm.  It's too early to tell.  So don't paint yourself into a corner.  

and again, what about all those red flags for  Machado?  Hand $300m to a guy with his history and hope he suddenly becomes an upstanding guy?  There's a reason one of the best players in baseball has all of 3 suitors.  I'd love for him to sign with the Yankees so we can watch that media shit show.  

As I said, after 22.  And it hasnt hamstrung this team we have plenty of room under the cap if we chose to spend it.    We have zero debt, room under the cap, and are operating at what is being called a comfortable budget some 25-30M under the luxury tax threshold.  Thats the very opposite of hamstrung.  What has hamstrung us is fear of another mistake.  

Im not saying there are not red flags, there are always red flags on ANY player you sign for a lot of money.  I think you are mistaken as to the reason they have less suitors, it isnt about talent or attitude, its about the dollars.  If we were talking half a much every team in the league would want him, few can afford what it would likely take.  Also what does it tell you that some of the teams rumored to want them are those not considered in contention?

Im not painting myself into any corner, im trying very hard to give the farm the credit you yourself have suggested many times it can be by even suggesting they will contribute ahead of their projections to date.  We wiull start to seem some of them trickle in last this season, more next, but I still have great concerns that they will become as much as you seem to think they will, but the die is cast, im trying to be optimistic.  Regardless what they may become doesnt help the major league club on the near term over the next couple years as that development takes time.  What do we do on the interim?  

Again im not suggesting its a good thing if it happens or even that i want it to, but ive mad no bones about the fact that i want this club to win both now and in the future.  Im simply not willing to concede the next couple years on a hope that the farm develops when this doesnt have to be the case.   The only short term solution is spending to bridge the gap if were not willing to trade anyone away of value.

[Inside Pitch]

48 minutes ago, Jay said:

Not sure why you continue to beat this Machado drum... the Angels aren't getting him.

My guess is it's in response to the people who act like the Angels not getting him is a sign that.... they aren't trying, are too cheap or just don't care about winning.

Edited December 24, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

What is also misguided is the notion that, after disasters spending on 32 year olds and drug addicts, they should be afraid to spend on 26 year olds that are not drug addicts.

Or go after a 29/30 year old in 2020, who checks off all the boxes (Arenado)?

Rather have him than the immature, rather pedestrian for what he wants to command in salary, Machado.

But ideally, Ward matures into the 3B spot, the pitching blossoms, and that money is instead spent to keep Trout, Simba, and ultimately Ohtani.

If Arte signs Machado for anything resembling his demands, I will be pissed off that Arte truly hasn’t learned his lesson.

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I don't believe that CJ Wilson's contract was a disaster. 3.78 ERA, all-star appearance and logged more than 200 innings twice and 175 innings once. At 17 million a year, they pretty much got what they paid for. That contract worked out better than the Weaver extension, yet everyone still loves Jered. 

100%

[Angel Oracle]

35 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

that's the kind of mentality that hamstrung this team.  Upton is signed through 2022 btw.   The farm will start to contribute sooner than that, but you can't guarantee where those contributions are going to come from.  That's the point I have been trying to make about the farm.  It's too early to tell.  So don't paint yourself into a corner.  

and again, what about all those red flags for  Machado?  Hand $300m to a guy with his history and hope he suddenly becomes an upstanding guy?  There's a reason one of the best players in baseball has all of 3 suitors.  I'd love for him to sign with the Yankees so we can watch that media shit show.  

Machado, the 2010s-2020s answer to Cobb, only not nearly as consistent.

[Dtwncbad]

32 year old free agent?

No.  Too old. Not gonna pay him for what already did instead of what he will likely do.

OK, 26 year old free agent?

No.  To immature.  I'm not gonna pay him like he is a HOF when he hasn't done enough to get paid like one.

Got it.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I don't believe that CJ Wilson's contract was a disaster. 3.78 ERA, all-star appearance and logged more than 200 innings twice and 175 innings once. At 17 million a year, they pretty much got what they paid for. That contract worked out better than the Weaver extension, yet everyone still loves Jered. 

He went south the fourth year of the contract, not completing the season and they got nothing the fifth year as he sat out, sucking up $20 million in payrol. It was a bad signing. 

[Angel Oracle]

Best comparison between Arenado, other than Arenado not being an immature brat:

Arenado’s career ROAD OPS  > Machado’s career overall OPS.

Only THREE times has Machado exceeded an .800 OPS on the season.   And yet some want to pay him $300-$350 million????

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

As I said, after 22.  And it hasnt hamstrung this team we have plenty of room under the cap if we chose to spend it.    We have zero debt, room under the cap, and are operating at what is being called a comfortable budget some 25-30M under the luxury tax threshold.  Thats the very opposite of hamstrung.  What has hamstrung us is fear of another mistake.  

Im not saying there are not red flags, there are always red flags on ANY player you sign for a lot of money.  I think you are mistaken as to the reason they have less suitors, it isnt about talent or attitude, its about the dollars.  If we were talking half a much every team in the league would want him, few can afford what it would likely take.  Also what does it tell you that some of the teams rumored to want them are those not considered in contention?

Im not painting myself into any corner, im trying very hard to give the farm the credit you yourself have suggested many times it can be by even suggesting they will contribute ahead of their projections to date.  We wiull start to seem some of them trickle in last this season, more next, but I still have great concerns that they will become as much as you seem to think they will, but the die is cast, im trying to be optimistic.  Regardless what they may become doesnt help the major league club on the near term over the next couple years as that development takes time.  What do we do on the interim?  

Again im not suggesting its a good thing if it happens or even that i want it to, but ive mad no bones about the fact that i want this club to win bot now and in the future.  Im simply not willing to concede the next couple years on a hope that the farm develops when this doesnt have to be the case.  

payroll is relevant.  our debt, room under the cap and Arte's general financial situation are not.  What has hamstrung this team is not fear of making another mistake.  It's the confines of the budget.  We gave upton over 100m last off season and another near 40m to Cozart.  

I'm not the one putting the plan together btw.  Even though I agree with it.  

In the interim, Billy has made the team appropriately competitive relative to his resources, the current talent level, and what he is planning for in the future.  If he were intent on giving seasons away, he wouldn't be signing guys like Harvey or Cahill or Cozart or Upton or even making minor trades for guys like Escobar or Kinsler.

On Arte's current budget, you can't have it both ways.  You can't do everything the team needs right now without sacrificing the future.  He's put a priority on preserving the future over the next two seasons.  I happen to agree with what he's doing. 

[Blarg]

12 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

100%

You are 100% incorrect, Wilson quit on the team like Hamilton, refusing to play his last contract year. 

Machado is an even bigger douche, quitting in the middle of the World Series on plays that could have changed the outcome. If he couldn't come to the table in that situation he certainly isn't going to suddenly see the light at $300 million guaranteed. 

 

[Docwaukee]

9 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

32 year old free agent?

No.  Too old. Not gonna pay him for what already did instead of what he will likely do.

OK, 26 year old free agent?

No.  To immature.  I'm not gonna pay him like he is a HOF when he hasn't done enough to get paid like one.

Got it.

We're not paying him.  I'm not making the rules.  I am not arguing on behalf of Arte.  I am merely stating what will and will not work within the guidelines he has set.  

There's a big difference between what I want and what is reality for this team going forward.  

If I felt like Arte would start pushing the boundaries of the CBT and add an additional 50-60 mil in payroll to make the team better, then I'd be fine considering the addition of some high dollar long term free agent commitments. 

He's not going to.  At least he's shown no indication that he will go beyond a certain point.  Does that thrill me?  not by any stretch.  But it is what it is.  

So with the current restrictions in mind, our best chance to truly contend are a Trout extension coupled with controllable farm talent contributing at the major league level and then supplementing around that when the time comes.   

 

[Blarg]

Everyone touts how great the A's are by being a competitive low payrol team but nobody seems to want the Angels to follow that business model. 

[floplag]

22 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

payroll is relevant.  our debt, room under the cap and Arte's general financial situation are not.  What has hamstrung this team is not fear of making another mistake.  It's the confines of the budget.  We gave upton over 100m last off season and another near 40m to Cozart.  

I'm not the one putting the plan together btw.  Even though I agree with it.  

In the interim, Billy has made the team appropriately competitive relative to his resources, the current talent level, and what he is planning for in the future.  If he were intent on giving seasons away, he wouldn't be signing guys like Harvey or Cahill or Cozart or Upton or even making minor trades for guys like Escobar or Kinsler.

On Arte's current budget, you can't have it both ways.  You can't do everything the team needs right now without sacrificing the future.  He's put a priority on preserving the future over the next two seasons.  I happen to agree with what he's doing. 

The budget is precisely the problem though, you are correct.   The thing is though, Arte has no financial situation.  I get that you choose to believe that this team could somehow even remotely lose money, i do not. 
  
And again, for the umpteenth time, I dont have an issues with the  preserving the future plan, my issues is with sacrificing the present.  The only thing preventing us from having it both ways is the decision not to over spent more than they deem comfortable for a couple years.   That is a choice, not a requirement.