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The Official TROUTstanding Thread


Chuck

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Trout's now at 67.2 fWAR for his career, 75th all-time. On the Fangraphs list so far this year he's passed Tony Gwynn, Dwight Evans, Edgar Martinez, Graig Nettles, Craig Biggio, Harmon Killebrew, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, Tim Raines, Robin Yount, Jesse Burkett, Joe Cronin, Andruw Jones, and Barry Larkin.

Through age 27

1. Ty Cobb 68.8

2. Mickey Mantle 67.9

3. Mike Trout 67.2

So he should re-take the "through age x" lead by the end of May.

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I've heard it said that Trout is having a down year - this is understandable, considering the fact that his batting average is below .300, and he wouldn't be in the top 10 in home runs in either league. Despite this, he is on pace for a 12.5 bWAR season - which would be a personal record. What's even more amazing is that its entirely possible that he has been unlucky so far. I started digging into his numbers, and he is sitting on a tiny .282 BABIP - compared to his .346 BABIP last year and his .352 career BABIP. Projections tend to assume that he will have his worst year (he appears to kind of break prediction calculators), and the most conservative of them has been projecting a BABIP of .319 for him. So, it seems likely that we will see some regression to the mean here, and that number will jump by the end of the year. Now, as far as I can tell, batting WAR is based mostly on wOBA numbers, which don't take BABIP into account. That means that its pretty reasonable to expect that a good chunk of his hits to start falling in, and his numbers to absolutely sky rocket.

I think a lot of the bad BABIP is due to having no protection all year - why would any pitcher ever give him something to hit? I'm hoping that Ohtani will end up batting behind him, and we will start to see a normal trout-level BABIP appear - which should drag up his batting average (and all associated stats).

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1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

It's a good one! 

 

 

Take note, Commish. That is how Trout markets baseball to the younger generations. It’s not selling sandwiches or sports drinks. It’s making a random kid in BAL who idolizes him feel like he’s Trout’s bud. Just Trout being himself.

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5 minutes ago, Jeremiah said:

Take note, Commish. That is how Trout markets baseball to the younger generations. It’s not selling sandwiches or sports drinks. It’s making a random kid in BAL who idolizes him feel like he’s Trout’s bud. Just Trout being himself.

Those comments were a non story. Good grief.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

That SI piece was great...

Lots of stuff about his numbers... which some never get tired of, but this one hurts: Nobody in baseball has collected more total bases through his age-26 season without winning a postseason game than Trout:

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Trout's been "slumping" for most of the year - at least by his normal standards. He's currently at 3.5 fWAR through 52 games, about one-third of the way through the season (the Angels have played 57 games, or 35% of the season).

Trout is on pace to play 148 games and about 10 fWAR. In other words, despite "slumping" he's still on pace for a 10 fWAR season. Not so bad. Chances are he improves a bit and has a real shot at 11 WAR. 

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